Please see www.politicalpessimist.com for notes from this presentation.

1. The Reformation and Millennials:
What Does This Mean?
{
Sarah Arnold
29 October 2014

2. Brief History of the
Reformation

3. Who?

4. What?

5. When?

6. Where?

7. How?

8. To expose the teachings of the Catholic Church on…
 The selling of indulgences
 Purgatory
 Particular judgment
 The authority of the Pope
Why?

9. Johannes Tietzel

10. Indulgence

11. St. Peter’s Basilica, Rome

12. Pope Leo X

13. Archbishop of Mainz

14. When a coin…

15. Johannes Tietzel

16.  Luther wanted an academic debate
 The translation of the 95 Theses into German set
off a firestorm
 The impact was much broader than just
theological
Why does this matter?

17.  Immense increase in literacy
 Drastic change in church services
 Expanded educational opportunities for all
(including women and children)
 Opening Scripture to laymen
 Emphasis on marriage and the family
Cultural

18. Cultural

19. Cultural

20.  Europe became politically fragmented along
religious lines
 Rejection of religious “authorities” by monarchs
 Many citizens challenging the idea of “divine
right” of monarchs
 Secularization of politics (separation of church
and state)
 Weakening of the Holy Roman Empire and rise of
the nation-states
 A lot of wars
 Rise of Capitalism
Economic and Political

21.  Rise of individualism—economic, political, and
social
 Encouragement of intellectualism and the
renaissance
 Strengthened middle class
 Poor classes began to demand reforms for
themselves
 Rise of a more democratic vs. feudal form of
government across Europe
Social

22. The Role of Church in Politics

23. Three Estates

24. Left-hand Kingdom Right-hand Kingdom
Kingdom of Man (State) Kingdom of God (Church)
Law Gospel
Sword: Internal and External Word, no sword
Power Grace
Exists for Order and Justice Exists for Mercy
External Righteousness Internal Righteousness
Realm of Morals Realm of Faith
Ruled by Reason Ruled by Scripture
Two Kingdoms Theology

25. Millennials

26. Millennials in the Church

27. Millennials in the Church

28. Millennials in the Church

29. Millennials in the Church

30.  Most millennials (51%) believe in economic
freedom, limited taxes and government, and
entrepreneurialism
 Most millennials (62%) believe in “social justice”
and consider themselves “liberal” on social issues
 In other words… most millennials could be
considered libertarian… in fact, 53% said they
would vote for a fiscally conservative, socially
liberal candidate
 Millennials weight social issues as a higher
priority than fiscal issues – that’s where our battle
lies
Millennials in Politics

31. Millennials in Politics

32. Battle for Millennials

33. Messaging in Politics

34.  Don’t talk down
 Don’t “know-it-all”
 Don’t pander
 Don’t be inconsistent
 Don’t be a hypocrite
 Remember: Millennials are the first generation to
grow up with microtargeted advertisement from a
very young age – they know how to spot BS when
they hear it
Messaging to Millennials

35.  Do be honest
 Do be upfront
 Do be concise
 Do appeal to both sides of the brain
 Do stand your ground
 Do realize you aren’t going to change someone’s
opinion on the first contact or overnight
 Do build credibility by building a relationship
Messaging to Millennials

36.  Do not start out by talking about religion – social
issues are moral issues first, not necessarily faith
issues.
 Ask questions first – and listen. You’ll surprise
them. Millennials want to be heard and
understood.
 Understand that millennials’ education has been
drastically more liberal than previous generations.
 Understand that millennials are accustomed to
instant gratification.
How to Talk Social Issues

37.  Access to information is much more readily
available to millennials than any other generation
before.
 Be ready and willing to agree to disagree, and not
argue minutia. Go in with the understanding that
you will not come out with 100% agreement.
 Follow up. Planting seeds now can reap
significant fruits in 1, 5, or even 10 years.
 This is the narcissistic generation. Convincing
them that they are wrong is a long-term project.
How to Talk Social Issues

38. What Does This Mean?

39. New (Political) Reformation

40. “People of your sort are
hirelings, dumb dogs unable
to bark, who see the wolf
coming and flee or, rather,
join up with the wolf.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Against Latomus

41. “You moderate enforcer and
eulogizer of moderation. You are
one of those bloody and deceitful
people who affect modesty in words
and appearance, but who meanwhile
breathe out threats and blood.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Against Latomus

42. “Your words are so foolishly
and ignorantly composed
that I cannot believe you
understood them.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Explanations of the 95 Theses

43. “If you who are assembled in a council are
so frivolous and irresponsible as to waste
time and money on unnecessary questions,
when it is the business of the council to deal
only with the important and necessary
matters, we should not only refuse to obey
you, but consider you insane or criminals.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Defense and Explanation of All the
Articles

44. Questions??

45. Election Predictions

46.  48 points of data in 15 categories per district
 15 categories condensed into one number: District
Rating
 7 point scale:
 1 = Democratic Party Pick-up
 2 = Strong Democratic Party Performance
 3 = Leans Democratic Party
 4 = Toss-up
 5 = Leans Republican Party
 6 = Strong Republican Party Performance
 7 = Republican Party Pick-up
Methodology

47.  Polling
 Money raised
 Total registered voters
 Active registered voters
 Past district performance
 Unique circumstances in 2014
Methodology

48.  101 total seats up in 2014
 1 – 2
 2 – 34
 3 – 12
 4 – 13 (2 no call / 5 leans R / 6 leans D)
 5 – 6
 6 – 35
 7 – 0
Overall Numbers

49. Fun with Numbers
 97%
 96%
 83%
 38%
 77%
 57%
Accuracy of this model in predicting results in 2012
Republican candidates (4)
Democratic candidates (17)
3rd Party candidates (63)
3rd Party in competitive seats (10)
3rd Party in non-statewide/congressional competitive seats (4)

50.  All Statewide (Gov, US Senate, AG, SoS,
Treasurer) – 3D/2R
 Congressional District 6 – no call
 State Senate Districts 5, 16, 19, 20, 24 – 1 no
call/1R/3D
 State House Districts 47, 59 – 2R
Toss-up Seats

51.  Statewide: 3D/2R (one loss)
 Congressional: 3D/3R/1TU (no change/one loss)
 CU Regents: 5R/4D (no change)
 State Board of Education: 4R/3D (no change)
 State Senate: 18D/16R/1TU (no change/one loss)
 State House: 36D/29R (gain of one)
Overall Results Predictions

52.  Supreme Court
 Justice Boatright: RETAIN
 Justice Marquez: NOT RETAIN
 Appeals Court
 Judge Fox: NOT RETAIN
 Judge Loeb: NOT RETAIN
Judicial Recommendations

53.  Amendment 67: no recommendation
 Amendment 68: NO
 Proposition 104: YES
 Proposition 105: NO
Ballot Initiative
Recommendations

54. Questions??

55. Sarah Arnold
 Phone: (719) 640-6534
 Email: politicsinthetrenches@gmail.com
 Web: www.politicalpessimist.com
 Facebook: Sarah Marie Arnold
 Twitter: @smarnold89
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