La presentazione di FedecomLegno/FLA alla Softwood Conference. Redatta da Massimo Fiorni, Molto interessante

1. Italy Softwood Market Development
67th International Softwood Conference
Antwerp, 18th October 2019
Massimo Fiorini

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE
2
1. General economic trends
2. Trade flows
3. Softwood market drivers
4. Factors shaping the future of Italian
trade and the trader’s profile
5. Conclusions
FROM A
TRADER
POINT OF
VIEW

3. 3
1. GENERAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
2. Trade flows
3. Softwood market drivers
4. Factors shaping the future of
Italian trade and the trader’s
profile
Getty images copyright

4. 4
SOME CHARTS TO EXPLAIN ITALY ECONOMY
Source International Monetary Fund

5. 5
1. General economic trends
2. TRADE FLOWS
3. Softwood market drivers
4. Factors shaping the future
of Italian trade and the
trader’s profile
Getty images copyright

6. 6
SOME PILL ABOUT SAWN SOFTWOOD:
 EU TRADE VALUE IN 2018: 8 billion of €, equal to 64 million m3
 EU MAIN SUPPLYERS: are INTRA EU (79%): Sweden (1.5 billion €), Germany and Austria
(1 billion €).
 MAIN EU IMPORTING COUNTRIES: UK (1,5 billion €), Germany (1.1 billion €) and Italy
(925 million €);
 EU MAIN FLOWS: Uk from Sweden (642 million €) - Italy from Austria (483 million €) -
UK from Latvia (241 million €) - Austria from Germany (236 million €) - Germany from
Austria (208 million €)
 ITALY IS THE 3RD IMPORTING COUNTRY ( 925 MILLION €) BUT THE 19TH SUPPLIER

7. 7
-
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1.000,00
1.200,00
1.400,00
2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
AUSTRIA GERMANY FINLAND UKRAINE CZECHIA
SLOVAKIA POLAND SWEDEN RUSSIA SLOVENIA
Value of wood sawn imported into Italy market by source
Total value of wood sawn
supplied to Italy from EU28 + EXTRA EU28
increased by 16 % in 2018 respect 2017
Imports value in 2018. Substantial increase in:
Austria 9%
Germany 30%
Finland 27%
Ukraine 16%
Total imports Value 2007 – 2018
Austria 5.9 billion €
Germany 1.1 billion €
Finland 434 million €
Ukraine 317 million €
Istat data processed by Fedecomlegno – Centro Studi FederlegnoArredo

8. 8
SOME PILL ABOUT SOFTWOOD LOGS:
 EU TRADE VALUE IN 2018: 2.4 billion of €, equal to 45 million m3
 EU MAIN SUPPLYERS: are INTRA EU (86%): Czechia, Germany and Poland.
 MAIN EU IMPORTING COUNTRIES: Austria, Germany and Sweden;
 EU MAIN FLOWS: Austria from Czechia (231 million €) – Germany from Austria (164
million €) – Germany from Czechia (154 million €) – Germany from Poland (125 million
€) – Austria from Slovenia (109 million €)
 ITALY IS THE 6th IMPORTING COUNTRY (111 MILLION €) BUT THE 18TH SUPPLIER

9. 9
Value of softwood sawlogs imported into Italy market by
source
Total value of sawn logs
supplied to Italy from EU28 + EXTRA EU28
increased by 9 % in 2018 respect then 2017
Imports value in 2018. Substantial increase
in:
Slovenia 52%
Switzerland 33%
Total imports Value 2007 – 2018
Austria 330 million €
France 319 million €
Switzerland 263 million €
-
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
50,00
2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
FRANCE SLOVENIA
AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND (incl. LI->1994)
GERMANY (incl DD from 1991) POLAND
CZECHIA (CS->1992)
Istat data processed by Fedecomlegno – Centro Studi FederlegnoArredo

10. 10
Value of coniferous plywood imported into Italy market by source
 Increase by 13% for Pinus Elliottis from
Brazil in value, by 19% in volume.
 The value of Pinus radiata from Chile
was doubled from €9 million € in 2017 to
19 million € in 2018, with almost tripled
volumes.
 Russian pine in values and volumes is
almost constant compared to 2017
-
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
BRAZIL CHILE RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
(RUSSIA)
SPAIN FRANCE
2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Istat data processed by Fedecomlegno – Centro Studi FederlegnoArredo

11. 11
1. General economic trends
2. Trade flows
3. SOFTWOOD MARKET DRIVERS
4. Factors shaping the future of
Italian trade and the trader’s
profile
Getty images copyright

12. 12
SOFTWOOD PRICE DEVELOPMENT
What we are suffering?
the wait-and-see policy of the Chinese’s government of the President Xi Jinping
Firsts problems of resale furniture in the United States due to the tariffs
Economic stagnation of Europe
Political turmoil in North Africa

13. 13
ACROSS ITALY CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SECTOR
Construction accounts for about 6% of the economy.
 Low investments on public industrial and public housing
 Positive scenario but still uncertain for private housing,
both new buildings and repairs:
Sales: 579.000 (+6,5%)
Mortgage approvals: 50 billion € (+6,2%)
New build dwellings: 58.000 (+14%)
 Growing consumer confidence on wooden buildings with
a share of 7% on the total of new build dwellings

14. 14
1. General economic trends
2. Trade flows
3. Softwood market drivers
4. FACTORS SHAPING THE
FUTURE OF ITALIAN TRADE
AND THE TRADER’S PROFILE
Getty images copyright

15. 15
POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
AFFECTING THE ITALIAN TIMBER
PRODUCTS TRADE

16. 16VAIA STORM
What’s happend to alpine forests?
How to rebuild forest more resilient?
THE IMPACT OF VAIA STORM ON THE TIMBER MARKET
 Total damaged forest is 42.873 Ha for 8.7
million sm3 of timber volume (7 times
average annually harvested industrial
roundwood volume in Italy)
 70/100.000 million sm3 of timber damaged
in Europe
 Significant demand for timber with a low
unit value
 Part of the trade flow goes to China. What
benefits can get the european exporter?
What requests from a chinese buyer?
 Prices 10 – 25 €/sm3

17. 17
CONCLUSIONS – What to do and Where we need to go!
 Speed and flexibility, skills requested in the world trade in
the years to come
 Italian traders have the will to not give in but maintaining
and developing high added –value products
 Storms: If in these particular circumstances, that could be
more frequent, we "as Wood European Sector" decide
once for all to make system instead of thinking of our own
garden, we can embrace the opportunity to learn after all
these falls and rise up again, taking into account new
strategies for a strong European forest governance, for the
wardship of the quality of timber assortments and their
own unit value, where everyone’s gain and nobody lose!Getty images copyright

18. THANK YOU
18
Massimo Fiorini – Secretary General Fedecomlegno
(FederlegnoArredo)
massimo.fiorini@federlegnoarredo.it