Embracing Change. v6.2. sg21.03.16

Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria
Centre for Spatial Information Science (CSIS)
CSIS ROUNDTABLE
SEMINAR
Presentation By
Simon Gusah
Urban Researcher
Tuesday 9th February, 2016
Ahmadu Bello University
v6.2

Introduction (1)
Background: Sustainability & Resilience
• Resilience & Sustainability concepts have similar
timespan (since early 1970’s), but aren’t identical
• Both entail retention of stocks of resources to
maintain essential function of ecosystems
• For ecosystems to be sustainable and for
sustainable development to be achieved eco- and
socio-economic systems need to be resilient.
• Key differences:
i) Intergenerational Equity; not emphasized in
resilience, but is a core value of sustainability, and
ii) Methodologically; resilience thinking focuses
on responding to external factors and threats,
whilst sustainability deals with the co-evolution of
embedded components and dimensions.
• Resilience is necessary but not sufficient to
achieve sustainability. Resilience is a component
of sustainability, not a potential replacement.
(Todorov and Marinova 2011).
Common Model of
Sustainable Development
Environment
Liveable
Social Economic
Equitable
Viable
Sustainable
Development
“EMBRACING CHANGE”
URBAN RESILIENCE IN NIGERIA
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Introduction (2)
Structure of the Presentation
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
Problem-Opportunity Statements
2. Definition of Terms
Sustainability & Resilience
3. 100 Resilient Cities (100RC)
City Resilience Framework
4. Nigeria’s Resilience Opportunity
North-East Post-Insurgency Rehabilitation
5. Urban Resilience in Nigeria
Implications for Theory, Practice & Policy
6. Conclusions & Recommendations
i) Embracing the Informal
ii) Achieving More Output with Less Input
RESILIENCE: A DEFINITION
“Resilience
is the capacity
of a social-ecological system (SES)
to absorb or withstand perturbations
and other stressors such that
the system remains within the same regime,
essentially maintaining
its structure and functions.
It describes the degree to which
the system is capable of
self-organization, learning and
adaptation.”
Resilience Alliance
Source: http://www.resalliance.org/index.php/resilience
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Problem-Opportunity Statement (1)
Nigeria’s Population Doubles in 25 years
YEAR Population
Median
Age
Rural/Urban
Split
1965 50, 238,570 18.9 80-20%
1990 95,617,350 17.5 65-35%
2015 183,523,432 17.7 48-52%
2040 350,720,062 19.8 34-66%
2050 440,355,062 21.4 29-71%
Data Source: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division – World Population Prospects
2012 Revision (Medium Fertility Variant) http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index.shtml
v6.2

Problem-Opportunity Statement (2)
Climate Change and/or Conflicts
Basemap: Max Lock Centre, University of Westminster (2011)
Climate Change & Conflict in Nigeria
Source: Aaron Sayne, United States Institute of Peace (2011)
POOR RESPONSE POOR RESPONSE
POOR RESPONSE
Desert Encroachment, Water Shortage
Sea Level Rise
Hypothetical
model of a
vicious cycle
due to poor
responses to
Climate
Change
Resource Shortages
Insufficient land & water
Loss of property
Less oil revenue
Conflict Risks
Low economic opportunity
Strained relationships
Worsened relations
b/w citizens &
institutions
Destructive self-help
Climatic Shifts
More heat, less rain
Higher sea levels
More severe
weather
Secondary Impacts
More population
displacement
More sickness & death
More unemployment &
less economic growth
v6.2

Definitions & Theoretical Framework (1)
Sustainable Development & the SDGs
The Brundtland Report
Our Common Future (1987)
"Sustainable
development is
development that
meets the needs of the
present without
compromising the
ability of future
generations to meet
their own needs“
Brundtland recognised that
economic growth whilst necessary
to satisfy human needs, has an
adverse impact on the
environment.
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Definitions & Theoretical Framework (2)
Resilient Urban Model (Lagos or Abuja?)
Which Nigerian urban model is RESILIENT (capable of “self-organization, learning, adaptation”)?
#1. Organic, Chaotic, Prosperous, Inclusive….Resilient? OR #2. Planned, Orderly, Expensive, Exclusive….Resilient?
Crawford S. Holling (1973) first theorised the concept of ecological system resilience, linked to Social-Ecological
Systems (SES).
ENGINEERING RESILIENCE: the ability of a material to return to equilibrium or steady state after deformation or
stress (i.e. skyscraper swaying in high wind, bridge bending under heavy load)
ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM RESILIENCE: the capacity of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a
qualitatively different state that is controlled by a different set of processes. A resilient ecosystem can withstand
shocks and rebuild itself when necessary. (Resilience Alliance)
1. ‘Lagos’ Model 2. ‘Abuja’ Model
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Definitions & Theoretical Framework (3):
Resilience as an Everyday Concept….
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Case Study: 100RC (1)
100 Resilient Cities (100RC) Challenge
Rockefeller Foundation funded
challenge to select 100 global
‘Resilient Cities’ (100RC)
RF to fund the position of a Chief
Resilience Officer (CRO) for 2 years
and a City Resilience Strategy (CRS)
Helping cities cope with short-term
‘shocks’ & long-term ‘stresses’
In 2014 Enugu became Nigeria’s 1st
‘100RC’ Resilient City.
The cities of Kaduna, Katsina, Kano &
Lagos have applied for the final round,
to be announced around March 2016.
Kaduna City’s ‘Story’ of Resilience
 Former thriving metropolis, long-term stress
due to the collapse of textiles & other industry
since the 1980’s – triggered unemployment &
economic decline for a generation.
 Frequent bouts of civil/social unrest ‘shocks’
have occurred, due to underlying ‘stresses’.
 New Leadership, under Governor El Rufai, is
pursuing a multi-pronged strategy of;
Peace-Building Initiatives, De-Militarisation &
Promoting Community Cohesion.
Source: http://www.100resilientcities.org/
v6.2

City Resilience Framework (CRF)
4 CATEGORIES; 12 INDICATORS; 48-54 SUB
INDICATORS; 130-150 VARIABLES
Category 1: Leadership & Strategy
Effective Leadership & Management,
Empowered Stakeholders, Integrated
Development Planning
Category 2: Health & Wellbeing
Minimal human vulnerability, Livelihoods &
employment, Safeguards to human life & health
Category 3: Economy & Society
Finance including contingency funds, Social
stability & security, Collective identity & mutual
support
Category 4: Infrastructure & Environment
Reliable mobility & communications, Continuity
of critical services, Reduced physical exposure
Rockefeller Foundation 100RC
City Resilience Framework
v6.2

City Resilience Framework (CRF)
What does CRF mean for Nigerian cities? Can CRF fit with local realities?
Informal Economy Dominant
Most daily transactions take place
out of sight/reach of government
Lack of Basic Service Capacity
SWM, Traffic Management, Utilities,
Public Transport
No City-level Administration
City Administration is divided
between State and LGAs
No Detailed Record-keeping
Ad-hoc Management; No Learning,
Data or KPIs – can’t fit framework
Learn from Local Systems
& Networks Operation. Attune
Government to ‘Peoples’ informal ways
Government should Limit Scope
of services, focus on core/basics;
i.e. Revenue Collection & Maintenance
Governor can Exercise Right
via Land Use Act: declare Urban Areas
and create appropriate City Structure
Engage Local Leaders
Mai Unguwa etc. collect local data, for
upward official collation & analysis
Problems/Limitations Opportunities/Strategies
v6.2

Nigeria’s Resilience Opportunity (1)
Post-Insurgency Rehabilitation of N.E.
Statistics on the 5-year insurgency:
Total IDPs in 6 NE States: 1,188,018 (149,357 H-holds)
Demographics: 53% F, 47% M; 56% Children, 28% <5y.o.
79% Displaced since 2014, 87% Living with host families
Source: International Organisation for Migration, IOM (February 2016)
(http://nigeria.iom.int/dtm)
Source: IOM/NEMA DTM Round II Report February 2015 Source: Victims Support Fund, VSF, Abuja (2015)
v6.2

Nigeria’s Resilience Opportunity (2)
Post-Insurgency Rehabilitation of N.E.
Resilience: “Building Back Better”
European Union, United Nations, World
Bank RPBA (Recovery & Peacebuilding
Assessment) currently on-going
(January-March, 2016)
COMPONENTS
i) Infrastructure & Social Services
ii) Peacebuilding Stability & Social Cohesion
iii) Economic Recovery
PROCESS
i) Compilation of Data
ii) Consolidation & Draft Synthesis Report
iii) Transitional Recovery Framework
TARGETS
1-2 Years, Stabilization Phase
3-4 Years, Medium-Term Recovery
 REBUILDING AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
REFORM, FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE
The often invoked ‘Marshall Plan’ not only
rebuilt Europe/Germany, it fundamentally
changed the nature of relationships between
countries. Not merely a ‘financial package’.
 ENGAGING WITH COMMUNITIES
‘Civilian JTF’ successes show that government
with the community is much more effective
 FROM VICTIMS TO VANGUARD
This may not be the last time the NE will need
to rally. Climate change and other conflicts
may follow.
Resilience; from fail-safe to safe-to-fail
 NEW URBAN/SPATIAL PATTERNS
Rural-urban drift likely to accelerate & many
may not return to villages, preferring a new
life in ‘town’. We must prepare for this shift.
v6.2

Urban Resilience in Nigeria
Implications for Theory
Re-conceptualising ‘Sustainable Development’
Sustainable Development; an idealised state for both ‘Over-developed’ & ‘Under-developed’ world.
The Global ‘North’ and ‘South’ both need a shift, to converge on sustainable growth & consumption.
GLOBAL ‘NORTH’
‘Developed World’
GLOBAL ‘SOUTH’
‘Developing World’
OVER-DEVELOPED
Excess Consumption
UNDER-DEVELOPED
Lack of Basic Services
Reduce Global Inequality
How? “3L”* GROWTH?
“Steady-State” Economy?
*3L Principle: “Long-life, Loose-fit, Low Energy”. Alexander Gordon, 1972
Steady State Economy: http://steadystate.org/discover/definition/
v6.2
?

Implications for Practice
“Urban Acupuncture” (Jaime Lerner 2014)
Small-scale, targeted urban interventions, which release embedded social and economic energies.
CSIS Supported HANDY Access Laneway Project
3m wide ‘rat-run’
to be Expanded to 8m
HANDY Access Laneway
Proposed site for
Community Market
v6.2

Implications for Policy Development
Re-visit the “Native Authority” Urban Governance Model
Engaging Communities by making better use of traditional (formal/informal) governance structures.
1 Emir of Kano: Jurisdiction is Kano State
44 District Heads (Hakimi):
1 per LGA (Gunduma, District). Answer to
Emir directly.
1,002 Village Heads (Dagaci):
Answer to Hakimi.
6,490 Ward Heads (Mai Unguwa):
Answer to Dagaci. Each Mai Unguwa has
between 500 to 3,000 people under their
area (Unguwa, Ward).
Hierarchical, highly distributed civil society
structure, reaches all communities & land
markets within the Emirate. The Colonial
Native Authority co-opted this indigenous
governance framework very effectively.Source: IPRC 2013
EMIR
Hakimi
(District Head)
Dagaci
(Village Head)
Mai-Unguwa
(Ward Head)
Mai-Unguwa
(Ward Head)
Mai-Unguwa
(Ward Head)
v6.2
KANO EMIRATE COUNCIL STRUCTURE

Conclusions & Recommendations
1. Government, the Absentee Landlord
Embracing the Informal
 Most Nigerians, most of the time, can and do live and
operate outside of the government’s knowledge or
influence.
 The (informal) ‘market’ finds solutions for most of the
daily challenges of life (education, health, transport,
water, electricity etc.) and this dynamic should be
nurtured & adapted, not crushed.
 Formal solutions should only be employed if/when
they produce better outcomes, not normatively or
unreflectively.
Recommendation 1: Informal Market Reform
Government should Embrace the Informal;
Lead, Follow, or Accommodate solutions.
v6.2

Conclusions & Recommendations
2. Learning from Lord Lugard
Indirect Rule & Native Authority
 Nigeria’s 1st Governor General ‘invented’ Indirect Rule, not as
political ideology, but for political expediency.
 Colonial Office was unwilling to fund colonies; so, with a
£135,000 budget and a handful of ‘Residents’ he created a
system to govern millions of Nigerians effectively through their
traditional leadership institutions. (Ref: Whittaker CS, 1970/2015)
 The (highly effective) Native Authority (NA) system was retained
in place post-Independence (1960), only being replaced by the
Local Governments after the Local Government Reform (1976).
 Nigerian cities today, with growing populations & falling revenues
could adopt a form of Lugardian pragmatism;
by tapping into civil-societal structures, networks & platforms.
Recommendation 2: Local Governance Reform
Achieve more Output with less Input;
By more effective civic engagement.
v6.2

Thanks for your attention!
“Embracing Change”
Implications for Sustainable Development
Simon Gusah
MPhil Researcher, De Montfort University
Visiting Researcher, CSIS, ABU Zaria
Simon.gusah@email.dmu.ac.uk
+234 81 55555 260
DMU Supervisory Team:
Dr John Ebohon (1st), Dr Jamileh Manoocherhi (2nd)
& Prof Adamu Ahmed (Local Advisor, ABU Zaria)
v6.2

References &
Bibliography
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Birkenholtz T (2012) Network political ecology: Method and theory in climate change vulnerability and adaptation research. Progress in Human Geography,
Sage Publications, vol. 36, Issue 3:295-315.
Carpenter SR, Westley F, Turner MG (2005) Surrogates for resilience of social-ecological systems. Ecosystems, vol. 8:941-944.
Giddens A (1984) The constitution of society: Outline of the theory of structuration. University of California Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles.
Gunderson LH and Holling CS, eds. (2002) Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature. Island Press, Washington DC.
Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual review of ecology and systematics. 1-23.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part
a: global and sectoral aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
IPCR (2013) Perspectives on Traditional African and Chinese Methods of Conflict Resolution, JHP Golwa (Ed.), Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution,
Abuja, Nigeria.
Lerner J (2014) Urban Acupuncture. Island Press.
Martin-Breen P, Anderies JM (2011) Resilience: A Literature Review. Bellagio Initiative, Brighton:IDS
Sayne A (2011) Climate change adaptation and conflict in Nigeria. US Institute of Peace.
Todorov V, Marinova D (2011) Modelling sustainability. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 81(7): 1397-1408.
Urquhart AW (1977) Planned urban landscapes of Northern Nigeria: a case study of Zaria. Ahmadu Bello University Press, Zaria, Nigeria.
Walker B, Holling CS, Carpenter SP, and Kinzig A (2004)Adaptability and Transformability in Social-Ecological Systems. Ecology and Society 9:5
Whitaker Jr. CS (1970/2015) The Politics of Tradition: Continuity and Change in Northern Nigeria, 1946-1966. Princeton University Press.
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