This document proposes a PhD project to develop regeneration and early growth models for MOSES-GB, an individual tree model used in the UK. The models are needed as forestry shifts from clearcutting conifer plantations to more complex, mixed-species forests with continuous cover. The work will review regeneration modeling literature, analyze existing UK datasets, and conduct field surveys to identify significant factors to model regeneration occurrence/density of Sitka spruce seedlings and integrate them into MOSES-GB. Over three years, the models will be developed, calibrated, validated, and finalized based on expanded data from additional regions and forest types.

1. REGENERATION AND EARLY
GROWTH MODELS FOR
MOSES_GB
Project proposal for a PhD in Forestry
Simone Bianchi
SENRGY
Website: simonebianchi.eu

2. Contents
1.Why do we need a forest regeneration model?
2.What is the modelling framework?
3. How the work will be carried out?

3. 1.Why do we need a regeneration model?
Photo © Mat Disney, NERC CTCD, 2005, from
http://www.ncaveo.ac.uk/test_sites/harwood_forest/
UK forestry dominated by artificial plantation of coniferous species, managed with clearfell.
The resulting forests are very organized ecosystems, which behaviour is relatively easy to predict.
Edwards, P.N., & Christie, J.M. (1982).Yield Models for Forest Management.
Forestry Commission Booklet, 48.

4. 1.Why do we need a regeneration model?
source: https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/projects/101
The future: continuous cover silviculture of complex mixed-species, uneven-aged forests !
Focus on natural processes!

5. 2.What is the modelling framework?
http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/INFD-8BXETZ
MOSES-GB
MOSES (Austria)

6. 2.What is the modelling framework?
1. Occurrence and density
2. Early growth
3. Mortality
And a regeneration component:
MOSES_GB IS AN INDIVIDUAL TREE MODEL:
There is an overstorey component…

7. 3. How the work will be carried out?
Research questions:
How can the (1) probability of regeneration occurrence and density
in coniferous stands and (2) the early growth of Sitka spruce
seedlings be modelled?
(3)Which are the significant factors to be included in those
models, in order to easily integrate them in MOSES-GB?

8. 3. How the work will be carried out?
YEAR ONE
1. Literature review on (i) forest regeneration modelling and (ii) coniferous
species regeneration in the UK (completed)
2. Retrieval of existing dataset from Forestry Commission (under way)
3. Field survey in Clocaenog Forest,Wales, to collect preliminary
observations and test methodologies (under way)
4.Investigating what can be done with the existing data, identify the
missing gaps, define the modelling framework we want to follow
(under way)

9. 3. How the work will be carried out?
Stand characteristics
Site characteristics
Regeneration
characteristics
Light regime
• Lack of existing data on regeneration in the UK1 versus the
high requirement for empirical approaches
• Regeneration occurrence/density is a highly random process
1 Kerr,G., Stokes,V., Peace,A., &Wylder, B. (2011). Prediction of conifer natural regeneration in a “ data-poor ” environment. Scottish Forestry, 65(3), 28–36.

10. 3. How the work will be carried out?
YEARTWO
6. Extend the field surveys to other region in the UK and/or to different
forest types (other coniferous species or even broadleaves)
7. Model calibration and validation
YEARTHREE
8. Wrap up

11. If a tree grows in the forest, does it make any sound? simonebianchi.eu
Acknowledgements:
• Dr Christine Cahalan, Bangor University &Tom Jenkins, Forest ResearchAgency
• Forestry Commission and Forest Research Agency
• Scottish ForestryTrust The end.Thanks! Any questions?