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ACCOUNTING	
  ANNOUNCEMENT	
  ASSIGNMENT	
  
Qantas	
  Airways	
  (QAN),	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  (VBN)	
  and	
  Skywest	
  (SXR)	
  

Laura	
  Fernandez	
  (13179100)	
  and	
  Stian	
  Larsen	
  (13163941)	
  
	
  


	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Submission	
  Date:	
  22/07/11	
  
Word	
  Count:	
  2026	
  
Subject	
  Code:	
  ACCT11-­‐100	
  
Lecture	
  Times:	
  (Wednesday	
  8-­‐10	
  and	
  Thursday	
  2-­‐4)	
  
Lecturer:	
  Tamara	
  Zunker	
  
	
  
	
                                                                                      1	
  
CONTENTS	
  

	
  

	
  


1.0	
  Executive	
  Summary	
  .........................................................................................................................................................	
  3

2.0	
  Objectives	
  ........................................................................................................................................................................	
  3	
  

3.0	
  The	
  Aviation	
  Industry	
  and	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  
                                                              ......................................................................................................................	
  4	
  
        3.1	
  The	
  Aviation	
  Industry	
  ..................................................................................................................................................	
  4	
  
        3.2	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  ............................................................................................................................................................	
  4	
  
        3.3	
  Competitors	
  .................................................................................................................................................................	
  4	
  

4.0	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  Profit	
  Announcement	
  ............................................................................................................................	
  5	
  
        4.1	
  Expected	
  Impact	
  ..........................................................................................................................................................	
  5	
  

5.0	
  Stock	
  Market	
  Results	
  .......................................................................................................................................................	
  5	
  

6.0	
  Returns	
  and	
  Residuals	
  .....................................................................................................................................................	
  6	
  

       6.1	
  Cumulative	
  Residuals	
  ....................................................................................................................................................	
  6	
  

7.0	
  Analysis	
  ............................................................................................................................................................................	
  7	
  
        7.1	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  (QAN)	
  .................................................................................................................................................	
  7	
  
        7.2	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  Ratio	
  Analysis	
  .....................................................................................................................................	
  8	
  
        7.3	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  Airline	
  (VBN)	
  ..............................................................................................................................................	
  8	
  
        7.4	
  Skywest	
  Airways	
  (SXR)	
  .................................................................................................................................................	
  8	
  

8.0	
  Conclusion	
  .......................................................................................................................................................................	
  9	
  

9.0	
  Appendices	
  .......................................................................................................................................................................	
  i	
  
        9.1	
  Announcement:	
  “Qantas	
  Announces	
  Profit	
  Result	
  –	
  Half	
  year	
  ended	
  31	
  December	
  2010”	
  ........................................	
  i	
  
        9.2	
  “Qantas	
  Profit	
  Soars	
  But	
  Misses	
  Mark”	
  .......................................................................................................................	
  ii	
  
        9.3	
  “Virgin	
  Blue	
  and	
  Skywest”	
  ..........................................................................................................................................	
  iii	
  
        9.4	
  “International	
  Passengers	
  By	
  Major	
  Airlines”	
  ............................................................................................................	
  iv	
  
        9.5	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  Data	
  Calculation	
  
                                                       .................................................................................................................................	
  v	
  
        9.6	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  Airways	
  Data	
  Calculation	
  ..........................................................................................................................	
  vi	
  
        9.7	
  Skywest	
  Airways	
  Data	
  Calculation	
  .............................................................................................................................	
  vii	
  

10.0	
  References	
  ...................................................................................................................................................................	
   	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                         viii

	
  
	
  
	
  

	
  


	
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2	
  
1.0	
  Executive	
  Summary	
  

The	
  following	
  business	
  report	
  has	
  been	
  created	
  to	
  identify	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  profit	
  announcements	
  on	
  a	
  particular	
  company	
  
and	
  its	
  share	
  prices.	
  This	
  report	
  focuses	
  on	
  Australia’s	
  leading	
  airline,	
  Qantas	
  Airlines	
  (QAN),	
  as	
  listed	
  on	
  the	
  ASX.	
  An	
  
analysis	
  of	
  the	
  relationship	
  between	
  Qantas’	
  residuals,	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  and	
  share	
  prices	
  is	
  included,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  a	
  
comparison	
  between	
  Qantas	
  and	
  two	
  of	
  its	
  main	
  Australian	
  competitors,	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  Airways	
  (VBN)	
  and	
  Skywest	
  Airlines	
  
(SXR).	
  The	
  profit	
  announcement	
  can	
  be	
  found	
  in	
  the	
  appendices	
  (Appendix	
  5).	
  Calculations	
  and	
  graphs	
  are	
  used	
  to	
  
analyse	
  the	
  change	
  in	
  the	
  share	
  prices	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  company’s	
  profit	
  announcement.	
  

The	
  airlines’	
  financial	
  positions	
  are	
  discussed	
  and	
  the	
  results	
  of	
  this	
  report	
  indicate	
  that	
  the	
  profit	
  announcement	
  
reflected	
  a	
  decrease	
  in	
  Qantas	
  Airways’	
  share	
  price	
  overall.	
  Through	
  analysis	
  of	
  the	
  graph	
  and	
  prior	
  media	
  coverage,	
  it	
  is	
  
evident	
  that	
  Qantas’	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  increased	
  the	
  day	
  before	
  the	
  announcement,	
  as	
  it	
  was	
  predicted	
  that	
  the	
  
profit	
  announcement	
  would	
  be	
  positive.	
  A	
  large	
  decrease	
  followed,	
  despite	
  the	
  positive	
  results	
  of	
  earnings	
  about	
  the	
  
expected	
  level	
  and	
  a	
  more	
  than	
  four-­‐fold	
  profit.	
  This	
  may	
  be	
  due	
  to	
  rising	
  fuel	
  prices	
  and	
  their	
  inability	
  to	
  pay	
  dividends.	
  	
  

However,	
  the	
  debt-­‐to-­‐equity	
  ratio,	
  return-­‐on-­‐equity	
  ratio,	
  current	
  ratio	
  and	
  total-­‐asset-­‐turnover	
  ratio	
  all	
  indicate	
  that	
  
Qantas	
  has	
  improved	
  its	
  ability	
  to	
  finance	
  its	
  assets	
  through	
  equity	
  rather	
  debt,	
  generate	
  increasing	
  returns	
  from	
  
shareholders’	
  investments,	
  generate	
  more	
  current	
  assets	
  to	
  cover	
  short	
  term	
  liabilities	
  and	
  increase	
  its	
  sales	
  revenue	
  
faster	
  than	
  its	
  total	
  assets.	
  

The	
  competitors	
  share	
  prices	
  varied	
  throughout	
  the	
  analysed	
  period,	
  with	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  showing	
  similar	
  results	
  and	
  
fluctuations	
  to	
  Qantas.	
  This	
  is	
  most	
  likely	
  because	
  they	
  are	
  more	
  similar	
  in	
  size,	
  target	
  market	
  and	
  location,	
  whereas	
  
Skywest	
  Airways’	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  were	
  negative	
  for	
  the	
  duration	
  of	
  the	
  period.	
  

	
  


2.0	
  Objectives	
  

       •      To	
  present	
  the	
  effects	
  of	
  releasing	
  accounting	
  information	
  pertaining	
  to	
  profits	
  on	
  the	
  valuation,	
  financial	
  
              position	
  and	
  share	
  prices	
  of	
  the	
  company.	
  
       •      To	
  evaluate	
  the	
  correlation	
  between	
  the	
  casual	
  relationship	
  of	
  the	
  investors	
  and	
  the	
  disclosure	
  of	
  accounting	
  
              information	
  in	
  the	
  market.	
  
       •      To	
  identify	
  the	
  effect	
  of	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  residuals	
  to	
  control	
  the	
  market	
  variables.	
  
       •      To	
  analyse	
  the	
  factors	
  behind	
  the	
  financial	
  aspects	
  of	
  a	
  company.	
  

The	
  objectives	
  within	
  this	
  report	
  will	
  apply	
  to	
  the	
  aviation	
  industry,	
  with	
  a	
  focus	
  on	
  analysing	
  Qantas’	
  current	
  financial	
  
performance	
  in	
  contrast	
  with	
  its	
  competitors,	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  and	
  Skywest.	
  


	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                                                3	
  
3.0	
  The	
  Aviation	
  Industry	
  and	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  

3.1	
  Industry	
  
	
  
The	
  aviation	
  industry	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  largest	
  and	
  fastest	
  growing	
  industries	
  in	
  the	
  world,	
  increasing	
  at	
  “an	
  average	
  annual	
  
rate	
  of	
  10%	
  between	
  1947	
  (19	
  billion	
  Revenue-­‐Passenger-­‐Kilometres)	
  and	
  2000	
  (3038	
  billion	
  RPKs)”	
  (Wiley,	
  2005,	
  p.	
  1).	
  
With	
  over	
  890	
  air	
  carriers	
  listed	
  in	
  the	
  Official	
  Airlines	
  Guide,	
  an	
  increasing	
  consumer	
  demand	
  for	
  air	
  travel	
  and	
  an	
  
escalation	
  in	
  the	
  ability	
  for	
  travellers	
  to	
  attain	
  affordable	
  tickets,	
  it	
  is	
  no	
  surprise	
  that	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  flights	
  scheduled	
  in	
  
May	
  2011	
  has	
  increased	
  by	
  4.2%	
  globally	
  (OAG	
  Aviation,	
  2011),	
  and	
  simultaneously,	
  “industry	
  revenues	
  grew	
  from	
  
US$1.05	
  billion	
  to	
  US$328.5	
  billion”	
  (Wiley,	
  2005,	
  p.1).	
  Low	
  cost	
  airlines	
  are	
  growing,	
  and	
  account	
  for	
  a	
  market	
  share	
  of	
  
16%	
  in	
  2010.	
  The	
  amount	
  of	
  global	
  passengers	
  will	
  increase	
  to	
  more	
  than	
  nine	
  million	
  by	
  2025,	
  putting	
  pressure	
  on	
  the	
  
industry	
  with	
  higher	
  demands	
  to	
  security,	
  price	
  and	
  service.	
  	
  

	
  


3.2	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  
	
  
With	
  over	
  87	
  years	
  in	
  service,	
  Qantas	
  is	
  the	
  longest	
  operating	
  airline	
  in	
  the	
  world,	
  being	
  the	
  first	
  airline	
  to	
  introduce	
  
business	
  class	
  in	
  1979.	
  For	
  almost	
  a	
  decade	
  Qantas	
  has	
  been	
  voted	
  in	
  the	
  top	
  airlines	
  category	
  by	
  Skytrax,	
  and	
  is	
  the	
  
safest	
  airline	
  in	
  Australia.	
  Qantas	
  is	
  the	
  only	
  airline	
  within	
  Australia	
  with	
  flights	
  to	
  every	
  capital	
  city,	
  with	
  over	
  160	
  
destinations	
  and	
  approximately	
  6,000	
  flights	
  per	
  week	
  (ASX,	
  2011),	
  making	
  them	
  the	
  largest	
  airline	
  in	
  Australia.	
  The	
  
Qantas	
  fleet	
  consists	
  of	
  140	
  airplanes,	
  with	
  27	
  new	
  planes	
  awaited	
  in	
  2013.	
  In	
  July	
  2011,	
  Qantas	
  and	
  its	
  subsidiaries	
  
operated	
  a	
  total	
  of	
  279	
  aircrafts,	
  giving	
  them	
  a	
  market	
  share	
  of	
  65%	
  domestically	
  and	
  18.7%	
  internationally	
  (Qantas	
  
Annual	
  Review,	
  2010).	
  Since	
  its	
  inclusion	
  on	
  the	
  Australian	
  Stock	
  Exchange	
  on	
  31	
  July	
  1995,	
  Qantas	
  has	
  reported	
  
increasing	
  profits	
  each	
  year.	
  Qantas’	
  annual	
  net	
  profits	
  “had	
  grown	
  from	
  A$180	
  million	
  to	
  A$684	
  million”	
  with	
  an	
  
increase	
  in	
  its	
  activity	
  by	
  62%	
  and	
  its	
  revenues	
  by	
  59%	
  between	
  1995	
  and	
  2004	
  (Wiley,	
  2005,	
  p.10).	
  	
  

	
  


3.3	
  Competitors	
  
	
  
Virgin	
  Blue	
  and	
  Skywest	
  make	
  up	
  1.22%	
  and	
  0.18%	
  of	
  the	
  market	
  sector	
  respectively	
  (Investsmart,	
  2011.)	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  is	
  
part	
  of	
  the	
  Virgin	
  Group,	
  however	
  it	
  is	
  a	
  fairly	
  newly	
  established	
  company	
  (2000),	
  whereas	
  Skywest	
  began	
  operations	
  in	
  
1963.	
  Virgin	
  Blue,	
  like	
  Qantas,	
  services	
  both	
  international	
  and	
  domestic	
  destinations.	
  In	
  contrast,	
  Skywest	
  is	
  renowned	
  
for	
  its	
  position	
  as	
  Western	
  Australia’s	
  premier	
  regional	
  airline.	
  Skywest	
  was	
  previously	
  part	
  of	
  Ansett,	
  a	
  company	
  which	
  
whose	
  carrier	
  fleet	
  was	
  bought	
  out	
  by	
  Virgin	
  and	
  Qantas	
  after	
  their	
  (Ansett’s)	
  eventually	
  insolvency.	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  


	
                                                                                                                                                                                            4	
  
4.0	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  Profit	
  Announcement	
  

Qantas’	
  half-­‐year	
  profit	
  announcement	
  was	
  released	
  on	
  17	
  February	
  2011,	
  in	
  the	
  form	
  of	
  a	
  media	
  release	
  and	
  in	
  the	
  
newspaper	
  “Sunshine	
  Coast	
  Daily”	
  (See	
  appendix	
  1).	
  It	
  declared	
  a	
  “profit	
  before	
  tax	
  of	
  $417	
  million	
  (up	
  56%	
  on	
  prior	
  
corresponding	
  period)”	
  (Qantas	
  Group,	
  2011,	
  p.	
  1),	
  forecasting	
  growth	
  in	
  its	
  domestic	
  and	
  international	
  capacities.	
  


4.1	
  Expected	
  Impact	
  
	
  
It	
  is	
  expected	
  that	
  the	
  share	
  prices	
  of	
  Qantas	
  will	
  decrease	
  due	
  to	
  changes	
  in	
  fuel	
  prices,	
  foreign	
  exchange	
  rates	
  and	
  
general	
  trading	
  conditions.	
  Despite	
  the	
  company	
  showing	
  a	
  steep	
  increase	
  in	
  profit	
  before	
  the	
  release	
  of	
  the	
  
announcement,	
  the	
  share	
  prices	
  are	
  likely	
  to	
  decrease	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  Qantas’	
  dividend	
  freeze,	
  which	
  shows	
  
shareholders	
  that	
  Qantas’	
  shares	
  may	
  become	
  volatile.	
  The	
  dividend	
  freeze,	
  however,	
  may	
  improve	
  its	
  situation,	
  
therefore	
  bringing	
  share	
  prices	
  back	
  to	
  a	
  relatively	
  steady	
  figure	
  again.	
  This	
  can	
  be	
  supported	
  by	
  the	
  stabilised	
  
conditions	
  after	
  the	
  resolution	
  of	
  issues	
  with	
  the	
  Rolls-­‐Royce	
  engine	
  failures	
  and	
  Queensland	
  floods.	
  

Qantas’	
  announcement	
  of	
  a	
  more	
  than	
  four-­‐fold	
  profit	
  (Qantas,	
  2011)	
  is	
  likely	
  to	
  negatively	
  impact	
  its	
  competitors,	
  
Skywest	
  and	
  Virgin	
  Blue,	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  high	
  competitiveness	
  of	
  the	
  industry	
  in	
  which	
  substitutes	
  are	
  readily	
  available.	
  	
  

	
  


5.0	
  Stock	
  Market	
  Results	
  


                                                              All	
  Ordinaries	
  Index	
  
       5050	
  
       5000	
  
       4950	
  
       4900	
  
       4850	
  
       4800	
  
       4750	
  




Figure	
  1:	
  All	
  Ordinaries	
  Index	
  


The	
  All	
  Ordinaries	
  Index	
  (AOI)	
  represents	
  the	
  closing	
  prices	
  of	
  Australia’s	
  500	
  biggest	
  companies	
  listed	
  on	
  the	
  ASX.	
  The	
  
                                                                                               th
AOI	
  is	
  a	
  good	
  indicator	
  of	
  the	
  stock	
  market	
  result.	
  On	
  the	
  17 	
  of	
  February	
  (the	
  day	
  of	
  Qantas’	
  profit	
  announcement),	
  the	
  
AOI	
  is	
  at	
  its	
  peak,	
  before	
  experiencing	
  a	
  general	
  trend	
  of	
  decline.	
  

	
  

	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                                       5	
  
6.0	
  Returns	
  and	
  Residuals	
  

This	
  report	
  displays	
  the	
  variations	
  in	
  share	
  prices	
  and	
  accompanying	
  returns	
  for	
  the	
  period	
  pertaining	
  to	
  the	
  three	
  
weeks	
  before	
  and	
  after	
  the	
  profit	
  announcement.	
  A	
  calculation	
  of	
  returns	
  and	
  residuals	
  was	
  necessary	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  
illustrate	
  the	
  effects	
  of	
  the	
  release	
  of	
  financial	
  accounting	
  information	
  on	
  the	
  valuation	
  of	
  the	
  company.	
  This	
  is	
  shown	
  
through	
  the	
  effect	
  of	
  changing	
  share	
  prices	
  as	
  a	
  result	
  of	
  the	
  announcement.	
  	
  

The	
  residuals	
  are	
  a	
  reflection	
  of	
  the	
  daily	
  operations	
  of	
  a	
  company,	
  and	
  reflect	
  the	
  general	
  performance	
  of	
  company	
  
share	
  prices	
  in	
  relation	
  to	
  the	
  stock	
  market.	
  Qantas	
  and	
  Virgin	
  have	
  minimal	
  residual	
  fluctuation	
  for	
  the	
  period,	
  whereas	
  
SkyWest’s	
  residuals	
  decrease	
  to	
  -­‐12.70%	
  on	
  February	
  22.	
  This	
  may	
  be	
  due	
  to	
  an	
  estimated	
  negative	
  profit	
  
                                                                                                     rd
announcement,	
  the	
  day	
  before	
  its	
  release.	
  The	
  increase	
  on	
  the	
  23 	
  may	
  be	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  Virgin-­‐Skywest	
  alliance.	
  Qantas	
  
had	
  the	
  most	
  regular	
  residual	
  fluctuation	
  throughout	
  the	
  six-­‐week	
  period,	
  due	
  to	
  its	
  solid	
  market	
  establishment.	
  

Returns	
  are	
  a	
  measurement	
  of	
  performance,	
  calculated	
  as	
  the	
  changes	
  in	
  daily	
  share	
  price	
  compared	
  to	
  the	
  previous	
  
day.	
  Qantas	
  and	
  Virgin	
  had	
  a	
  stable	
  trend	
  on	
  their	
  returns,	
  with	
  minimal	
  fluctuations.	
  SkyWest	
  had	
  high	
  fluctuations	
  
between	
  4%	
  and	
  -­‐12%.	
  The	
  sharp	
  decrease	
  on	
  February	
  22	
  may	
  be	
  associated	
  with	
  the	
  suspension	
  of	
  Rio	
  Tinto’s	
  mining	
  
operations	
  in	
  Western	
  Australia	
  due	
  to	
  Cyclone	
  Carlos.	
  The	
  location	
  of	
  Skywest’s	
  operations	
  is	
  linked	
  to	
  the	
  resource	
  
industry,	
  with	
  some	
  of	
  its	
  major	
  clients	
  being	
  the	
  mining	
  operators.	
  The	
  rapid	
  increase	
  in	
  share	
  prices	
  on	
  the	
  February	
  
23	
  may	
  be	
  attributed	
  to	
  Skywest’s	
  positive	
  profit	
  announcement,	
  which	
  was	
  released	
  on	
  that	
  day.	
  



                                                            Company	
  Returns	
  
                               10.00%	
  

                                5.00%	
  
       Daoly	
  returns	
  




                                0.00%	
                                                                                                                 Qantas	
  
                                                                                                                                                        Virgin	
  Blue	
  
                               -­‐5.00%	
  
                                                                                                                                                        Skywest	
  
                              -­‐10.00%	
  

                              -­‐15.00%	
  
                                                                               Date	
  

Figure	
  2:	
  Company	
  Returns	
  

	
  
6.1	
  Cumulative	
  Residuals	
  
	
  
The	
  cumulative	
  residual	
  is	
  the	
  daily	
  percentage	
  change	
  in	
  Qantas	
  share	
  prices	
  compared	
  to	
  the	
  AOI	
  change,	
  as	
  listed	
  in	
  
the	
  ASX.	
  It	
  is	
  evident	
  that	
  the	
  changes	
  in	
  share	
  prices	
  are	
  a	
  direct	
  consequence	
  of	
  the	
  company’s	
  announcement,	
  as	
  the	
  
information	
  contained	
  in	
  the	
  announcement	
  explains	
  profits	
  earned	
  and	
  losses	
  incurred.	
  The	
  effect	
  of	
  other	
  factors	
  in	
  
the	
  valuation	
  of	
  the	
  company	
  can	
  be	
  understood	
  through	
  a	
  calculation	
  of	
  the	
  cumulative	
  residual	
  of	
  the	
  share	
  prices	
  
and	
  share	
  price	
  index.	
  The	
  ASX	
  figures	
  peaked	
  at	
  the	
  same	
  rate	
  as	
  the	
  Qantas	
  cumulative	
  residuals,	
  indicating	
  the	
  
similarity	
  between	
  Qantas	
  and	
  the	
  market	
  overall.	
  


	
                                                                                                                                                                                     6	
  
7.0	
  Analysis	
  

                                                                 Cumulative	
  Residual	
  
                                     0.15	
  

                                        0.1	
  

                                     0.05	
  
       Cumulative	
  Residual	
  




                                           0	
  
                                                                                                                                                                       Qantas	
  
                                    -­‐0.05	
  
                                                                                                                                                                       Virgin	
  Blue	
  
                                      -­‐0.1	
                                                                                                                         Skywest	
  

                                    -­‐0.15	
  

                                      -­‐0.2	
  

                                    -­‐0.25	
  
                                                                                  Date	
  


Figure	
  3:	
  Cumulative	
  Residuals	
  


7.1	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  (QAN)	
  
	
  
Qantas	
  announced	
  a	
  four-­‐fold	
  profit	
  in	
  the	
  profit	
  announcement	
  released	
  on	
  17	
  February	
  2011.	
  Figure	
  3	
  is	
  derived	
  from	
  
the	
  market	
  prices	
  of	
  the	
  company	
  (see	
  appendix	
  5)	
  	
  

As	
  figure	
  3	
  shows,	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  fluctuation	
  in	
  the	
  three	
  weeks	
  prior	
  to	
  and	
  post	
  the	
  announcement,	
  however	
  there	
  is	
  
                                                            th                                                        nd
a	
  sharp	
  increase	
  from	
  -­‐0.02	
  on	
  the	
  16 	
  of	
  February	
  2011	
  to	
  0.04	
  on	
  the	
  22 	
  February	
  2011	
  and	
  a	
  consequent	
  sharp	
  
                                                   th
decrease	
  to	
  -­‐0.02	
  on	
  24 	
  February	
  2011.	
  	
  

                                                                                    th
Just	
  before	
  the	
  profit	
  announcement	
  was	
  made,	
  (16 	
  February	
  2011),	
  an	
  article	
  was	
  published,	
  stating	
  that	
  Qantas	
  had	
  
an	
  expected	
  profit	
  increase.	
  This	
  explains	
  the	
  major	
  increase	
  in	
  the	
  share	
  prices	
  of	
  Qantas	
  before	
  the	
  announcement.	
  
The	
  massive	
  increase	
  of	
  the	
  announcement	
  may	
  also	
  be	
  attributed	
  to	
  the	
  domestic	
  Australian	
  market’s	
  strong	
  post-­‐GFC	
  
growth,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  Qantas’	
  announcement	
  of	
  the	
  lease	
  of	
  11	
  new	
  airlines	
  (Herald	
  Sun,	
  2011).	
  	
  

                                                                                                              th
Despite	
  Qantas	
  being	
  profitable	
  in	
  the	
  second	
  half	
  of	
  2010,	
  on	
  the	
  18 	
  of	
  February	
  2011,	
  “Qantas	
  shares	
  fell	
  
sharply…after	
  the	
  airline	
  posted	
  a	
  72%	
  fall	
  in	
  first-­‐half	
  net	
  profit,	
  did	
  not	
  pay	
  a	
  dividend	
  and	
  warned	
  of	
  further	
  volatility	
  
in	
  the	
  aviation	
  industry”	
  (The	
  Australian,	
  2011,	
  p.1)	
  Figure	
  3	
  shows	
  the	
  Qantas	
  share	
  price	
  falling	
  by	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  7%,	
  
which	
  can	
  also	
  be	
  explained	
  by	
  the	
  increased	
  fuel	
  prices	
  and	
  exchange	
  rates.	
  In	
  denying	
  a	
  payment	
  of	
  a	
  dividend,	
  
Qantas	
  indicates	
  that	
  it	
  is	
  lacking	
  in	
  liquid	
  assets.	
  Fluctuations	
  are	
  shown	
  after	
  the	
  major	
  decrease.	
  

	
  

	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                                            7	
  
7.1	
  Qantas	
  Airways	
  Ratio	
  Analysis	
  
	
  

The	
  debt-­‐to-­‐equity	
  ratio	
  shows	
  whether	
  assets	
  are	
  financed	
  mostly	
  by	
  debt	
  or	
  equity.	
  The	
  debt-­‐to-­‐equity	
  ratios	
  are	
  
calculated	
  in	
  the	
  December	
  2009	
  to	
  December	
  2010	
  reporting	
  period.	
  They	
  show	
  a	
  positive	
  result	
  with	
  a	
  decrease	
  in	
  
reliance	
  on	
  debts	
  from	
  2.45	
  to	
  2.33.	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  decrease	
  of	
  5.1	
  %.	
  This	
  shows	
  that	
  the	
  assets	
  of	
  Qantas	
  are	
  increasingly	
  
being	
  financed	
  by	
  equity	
  rather	
  than	
  debts.	
  	
  

The	
  return-­‐on-­‐equity	
  ratio	
  indicates	
  how	
  much	
  return	
  the	
  company	
  is	
  generating	
  from	
  the	
  historical	
  accumulated	
  
shareholder’s	
  investment.	
  The	
  analysed	
  period	
  shows	
  an	
  increase	
  from	
  0.01	
  in	
  December	
  2009	
  to	
  0.04	
  in	
  December	
  
2010.	
  	
  This	
  is	
  an	
  increase	
  of	
  16.69%.	
  	
  

The	
  current	
  (working	
  capital)	
  ratio	
  indicates	
  whether	
  the	
  company	
  has	
  enough	
  short-­‐term	
  assets	
  to	
  cover	
  its	
  short-­‐term	
  
debts,	
  and	
  shows	
  an	
  increase	
  of	
  1.41%	
  from	
  0.89	
  in	
  December	
  2009	
  to	
  0.90	
  in	
  December	
  2010.	
  	
  

The	
  total-­‐asset-­‐turnover	
  ratio	
  shows	
  how	
  much	
  of	
  Qantas’	
  sales	
  volume	
  is	
  associated	
  with	
  a	
  dollar	
  of	
  its	
  assets.	
  In	
  
December	
  2009,	
  the	
  total	
  asset	
  turnover	
  ratio	
  was	
  0.35,	
  increasing	
  by	
  8.33%	
  to	
  0.38	
  in	
  December	
  2010.	
  The	
  turnover	
  
ratio	
  increased	
  because	
  Qantas’	
  sales	
  revenue	
  increased	
  faster	
  than	
  its	
  total	
  assets	
  did	
  in	
  this	
  period.	
  Ie.	
  Qantas	
  got	
  
more	
  sales	
  out	
  of	
  each	
  dollar	
  of	
  its	
  assets.	
  



7.3	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  Airline	
  (VBN)	
  
	
  
As	
  a	
  recently	
  established	
  company	
  with	
  a	
  relatively	
  small	
  portion	
  of	
  the	
  market	
  share	
  (1.22%),	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  has	
  done	
  well	
  
to	
  become	
  the	
  prime	
  competitor	
  to	
  Qantas	
  in	
  Australia.	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  is	
  not	
  listed	
  on	
  the	
  Australian	
  Government’s	
  chart	
  of	
  
2010’s	
  major	
  airlines	
  depicted	
  in	
  Appendix	
  4.	
  

Figure	
  2	
  shows	
  the	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  of	
  share	
  prices	
  for	
  Virgin	
  Blue,	
  accessed	
  from	
  the	
  company	
  and	
  market	
  share.	
  In	
  
the	
  three	
  weeks	
  prior	
  to	
  Qantas’	
  profit	
  announcement,	
  a	
  relatively	
  steady	
  decrease	
  occurred	
  (from	
  0.11	
  to	
  0.	
  02)	
  with	
  
minimal	
  fluctuation.	
  The	
  decrease	
  in	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  may	
  be	
  explained	
  by	
  “Air	
  New	
  Zealand	
  (who)	
  has	
  continued	
  
its	
  buy	
  up	
  of	
  shares	
  in	
  Virgin	
  Blue,	
  lifting	
  its	
  stake	
  through	
  off-­‐market	
  purchases	
  to	
  14.9%	
  of	
  Australia’s	
  No	
  2	
  airline”	
  
(The	
  Age,	
  2011,	
  p.	
  1).	
  	
  

A	
  relatively	
  constant	
  period	
  remained	
  after	
  the	
  announcement,	
  until	
  February	
  22,	
  2011,	
  where	
  the	
  share	
  price	
  
decreased	
  rapidly.	
  The	
  steady	
  decrease	
  from	
  0.06	
  to	
  -­‐0.07	
  occurred	
  in	
  just	
  over	
  a	
  week	
  (at	
  the	
  same	
  rate	
  and	
  in	
  the	
  
same	
  period	
  as	
  Qantas).	
  This	
  could	
  be	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  conditions	
  affecting	
  the	
  major	
  players	
  in	
  the	
  Australian	
  aviation	
  
industry,	
  such	
  as	
  rising	
  “fuel	
  prices,	
  foreign	
  exchange	
  rates,	
  general	
  trading	
  conditions	
  and	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  significant	
  
weather	
  events”	
  (Qantas,	
  2011,	
  p.1).	
  	
  

It	
  is	
  evident	
  that	
  the	
  release	
  of	
  the	
  Qantas	
  profit	
  announcement	
  had	
  a	
  significant	
  impact	
  on	
  the	
  share	
  prices	
  of	
  Virgin	
  
Blue	
  Airways,	
  as	
  shown	
  in	
  Figure	
  2.	
  	
  

	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                                              8	
  
7.4	
  Skywest	
  Airways	
  (SXR)	
  
	
  
Skywest	
  is	
  Western	
  Australia’s	
  largest	
  regional	
  carrier	
  however	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  listed	
  in	
  the	
  Australian	
  Government’s	
  listing	
  of	
  
                                                                                                                                            th
top	
  airlines	
  (see	
  appendix	
  3).	
  From	
  the	
  beginning	
  of	
  the	
  period	
  (27	
  January	
  2011)	
  to	
  the	
  17 	
  of	
  February,	
  there	
  are	
  small	
  
fluctuations	
  in	
  the	
  cumulative	
  residuals,	
  with	
  peaks	
  at	
  -­‐0.08	
  and	
  troughs	
  at	
  -­‐0.16.	
  Figure	
  3	
  is	
  derived	
  from	
  the	
  company	
  
and	
  market	
  share	
  of	
  the	
  company	
  (see	
  appendix	
  7).	
  

In	
  this	
  six-­‐week	
  period,	
  it	
  is	
  evident	
  that	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  relationship	
  between	
  the	
  Qantas	
  profit	
  announcement	
  and	
  the	
  share	
  
prices	
  and	
  residuals	
  of	
  Skywest.	
  On	
  the	
  day	
  of	
  the	
  announcement,	
  the	
  share	
  price	
  for	
  Skywest	
  was	
  -­‐0.15,	
  however	
  there	
  
                                                                   th
was	
  a	
  general	
  decreasing	
  trend	
  until	
  the	
  18 	
  February	
  2011	
  where	
  the	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  reached	
  a	
  trough	
  of	
  -­‐0.19.	
  
They	
  then	
  showed	
  a	
  general	
  decreasing	
  trend	
  until	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  period.	
  Figure	
  3	
  shows	
  that	
  the	
  cumulative	
  residuals	
  
never	
  exceeded	
  ‘0’,	
  indicating	
  that	
  despite	
  the	
  rapidly	
  rising	
  share	
  prices,	
  Skywest’s	
  market	
  share	
  was	
  always	
  
considerably	
  lower	
  than	
  their	
  larger	
  competitor,	
  Qantas.	
  	
  

The	
  noticeable	
  increase	
  in	
  share	
  prices	
  may	
  be	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  alliance	
  formed	
  between	
  the	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  Group	
  and	
  Skywest	
  
airlines,	
  which	
  enabled	
  code	
  sharing	
  and	
  Skywest’s	
  operation	
  of	
  several	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  aircraft	
  (see	
  appendix	
  4).	
  

	
  


8.0	
  Conclusion	
  

The	
  financial	
  performance	
  of	
  a	
  company	
  can	
  be	
  assessed	
  through	
  the	
  analysis	
  of	
  a	
  company’s	
  financial	
  statements,	
  its	
  
profitability,	
  activity	
  and	
  liquidity.	
  In	
  order	
  to	
  make	
  an	
  accurate	
  assessment,	
  it	
  is	
  necessary	
  to	
  make	
  comparisons	
  
between	
  the	
  company	
  being	
  studied,	
  other	
  competitors	
  in	
  the	
  industry	
  and	
  the	
  overall	
  market	
  occurrences.	
  	
  

The	
  above	
  business	
  report	
  outlines	
  Qantas’	
  financial	
  position,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  that	
  of	
  its	
  competitors;	
  Virgin	
  Blue	
  and	
  Skywest.	
  
Based	
  on	
  recent	
  market	
  activity,	
  it	
  is	
  reasonable	
  to	
  assume	
  that	
  while	
  the	
  aviation	
  industry	
  would	
  be	
  a	
  profitable	
  share	
  
investment,	
  it	
  is	
  subject	
  to	
  many	
  external	
  factors,	
  as	
  previously	
  discussed.	
  	
  

The	
  AOI	
  showed	
  fluctuations	
  within	
  the	
  six-­‐week	
  period,	
  and	
  overall,	
  the	
  Qantas	
  share	
  prices	
  showed	
  regular	
  
fluctuations	
  and	
  a	
  large	
  and	
  sudden	
  increase	
  and	
  decrease	
  around	
  the	
  release	
  of	
  the	
  profit	
  announcement.	
  Qantas’	
  
profit	
  announcement	
  is	
  for	
  the	
  half	
  year	
  ended	
  December	
  2010,	
  and	
  indicates	
  that	
  the	
  release	
  of	
  the	
  profit	
  
announcement	
  impacts	
  its	
  share	
  prices.	
  It	
  is	
  a	
  much	
  more	
  established	
  company	
  compared	
  to	
  its	
  competitors,	
  with	
  a	
  
larger	
  market	
  share,	
  being	
  Australia’s	
  number	
  one	
  airline.	
  	
  

The	
  ratios	
  analysed	
  indicate	
  that	
  over	
  the	
  year,	
  Qantas	
  improved	
  its	
  profitability,	
  retention	
  of	
  sales,	
  and	
  debt	
  figures	
  
however	
  they	
  did	
  not	
  pay	
  out	
  dividends	
  in	
  the	
  six-­‐week	
  period	
  and	
  share	
  prices	
  decreased	
  overall.	
  Qantas’	
  reputation	
  
and	
  positive	
  future	
  prospects	
  combined	
  with	
  its	
  announced	
  new	
  fleet	
  of	
  aircraft	
  confirm	
  that	
  investment	
  in	
  Qantas	
  
shares	
  would	
  be	
  beneficial	
  overall.	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  


	
                                                                                                                                                                                       9	
  
9.0	
  Appendix	
  1	
  

8.1	
  Announcement:	
  “Qantas	
  Announces	
  Profit	
  Result	
  –	
  Half-­‐year	
  Ended	
  31	
  
December	
  2010”	
  




QANTAS ANNOUNCES PROFIT RESULT–HALF-YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2010	
  
                                           SOLID RECOVERY FROM GFC AND OTHER EVENTS, STRONG
                                           GROWTH ACROSS ALL OPERATING SEGMENTS
	
  
       HIGHLIGHTS:
           Underlying Profit Before Tax1 of $417 million – up 56 per cent on prior corresponding period
           Revenue of $7.6 billion – up 10 per cent on prior corresponding period
           Operating cash flow of $743 million – up 54 per cent on prior corresponding period
           Cash balance of $3.3 billion
	
  
       SYDNEY,	
  17	
  February	
  2011:	
  	
   Qantas	
  today	
  announced	
  an	
   Underlying	
  Profit	
  Before	
  Tax	
  (Underlying	
  
       PBT)	
  of	
  $417	
   million	
   for	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
  ended	
   31	
  December	
  2010.	
  
	
  
       The	
  Underlying	
  PBT	
  result	
   was	
  materially	
  stronger	
  than	
  for	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
  ended	
   31	
  December	
  
       2009.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
  Chief	
  Executive	
   Officer,	
   Mr	
  Alan	
  Joyce,	
  said	
  the	
  result	
  built	
  on	
  the	
  Qantas	
  Group’s	
   FY10	
  
       performance	
  and	
  showed	
   it	
  had	
  emerged	
  from	
  the	
  Global	
   Financial	
  Crisis	
   in	
  a	
  solid	
  position.	
  
	
  
       “The	
  Qantas	
   Group	
  has	
  delivered	
   a	
  strong	
  result	
  and	
  is,	
  again,	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  few	
  airlines	
  to	
  remain	
  
       consistently	
  profitable	
  and	
  continue	
  to	
  hold	
  an	
  investment	
  grade	
   credit	
   rating,”	
   Mr	
  Joyce	
   said.	
  
	
  
       ”With	
  half-­‐year	
   underlying	
  profit	
  up	
  more	
  than	
  56	
  per	
  cent	
  year-­‐on-­‐year,	
  all	
  parts	
  of	
  the	
  Group	
   performed	
  
       well,	
  with	
  Jetstar	
  and	
  Qantas	
  Frequent	
  Flyer	
  delivering	
  record	
  half-­‐year	
  profits	
  and	
  Qantas	
  Airlines’	
  
       performance	
  significantly	
  improving.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas	
  and	
  Jetstar	
  are	
  now	
  the	
  two	
  most	
  profitable	
  domestic	
  airlines	
  in	
  Australia,	
  demonstrating	
   the	
  
       strength	
  of	
  our	
  two	
  brand	
   strategy	
   and	
  capacity	
  to	
  service	
  and	
  grow	
   both	
   the	
  business	
  and	
  leisure	
   sectors.	
  
	
  
       “The	
  	
   Group’s	
  	
   response	
  	
   to	
  	
   events	
  	
   that	
  	
   included	
  	
   the	
  	
   A380	
  	
   Rolls-­‐Royce	
  	
   engine	
  	
   failure,	
  	
   and	
  	
  
       subsequent	
  temporary	
   grounding	
   of	
  the	
  Qantas	
  A380	
  fleet	
  in	
  November,	
  also	
  showed	
   us	
  to	
  be	
  flexible,	
  
       adaptable	
   and	
  resilient.”	
  
	
  
       Mr	
   Joyce	
   said	
   the	
   Group	
   was	
   well	
   positioned	
   to	
   capitalise	
   on	
   the	
   improving	
   global	
   aviation	
  
       environment	
   and	
  opportunities	
  in	
  both	
  the	
  premium	
  and	
  leisure	
   sectors.	
  
	
  
       “Domestic	
   business	
   travel	
  continues	
   to	
  recover	
   and	
  Qantas’	
  yield	
  premium	
   has	
  been	
  restored	
   to	
  pre-­‐
       financial	
  crisis	
   levels,”	
   he	
  said.	
  
	
  
       “While	
  domestic	
   leisure	
  market	
  conditions	
   continue	
   to	
  be	
  highly	
  competitive,	
   Jetstar	
  remains	
  well	
  placed	
  
       as	
  the	
  low	
  fare	
  leader.	
  
	
  
       “While	
  demand	
   on	
  key	
  international	
  routes	
  continues	
  to	
  improve,	
   the	
  international	
  environment	
  remains	
  
       challenging.	
  	
   We	
  remain	
   committed	
  to	
  improving	
  the	
  performance	
  of	
  Qantas’	
   international	
  business.”	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                                                        10	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                           i	
  
 
“In	
   Asia,	
   to	
   which	
   Australia’s	
   future	
   is	
   clearly	
   tied,	
   the	
   Group	
   is	
   looking	
   for	
   growth	
   opportunities	
   via	
   Jetstar’s	
  
aggressive	
   pan-­‐Asian	
   growth	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  options	
  for	
  Qantas	
  to	
  capitalise	
   on	
  the	
  growing	
   demand	
   for	
  premium	
  travel	
   in	
  
the	
  region.	
  
	
  
       A380	
   Rolls-­‐Royce	
  Engine	
   Incident	
  and	
  Fleet	
   Grounding	
  
       Mr	
  Joyce	
   said	
  the	
  grounding	
  of	
  the	
  A380	
   fleet	
  in	
  November	
  was	
  a	
  setback	
   for	
  Qantas.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas’	
   response	
   to	
  this	
  unprecedented	
  event	
  was	
  swift	
  and	
  appropriate.	
  In	
  very	
  challenging	
   circumstances,	
  and	
  	
  
       with	
  	
  the	
  	
  commitment	
  	
   and	
  	
  hard	
  	
  work	
  	
  of	
  	
  our	
  	
  people,	
  	
  we	
  	
  managed	
  	
   to	
  	
  maintain	
  	
   98	
  	
  per	
  	
  cent	
  	
  of	
  	
  our	
  
       international	
  operations.	
   While	
  disruptions	
   were	
  minimised,	
   we	
  regret	
  any	
  inconvenience	
  customers	
   may	
  have	
  
       experienced	
  at	
  the	
  time,”	
   Mr	
  Joyce	
   said.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
  has	
  estimated	
   the	
  full-­‐year	
  economic	
   impact	
  to	
  the	
  business	
  at	
  $80	
  million,	
  with	
  $55	
  million	
  in	
  the	
  first	
  half	
  
       and	
  $25	
  million	
   forecast	
   in	
  the	
  second	
   half.	
  
	
  
       The	
   figure	
   does	
   not	
   include	
   the	
   cost	
   of	
   repair	
   of	
   the	
   damaged	
   aircraft	
   and	
   engines,	
   estimated	
   to	
   be	
   at	
   least	
  
       $100	
   million,	
   which	
   are	
  all	
  covered	
   by	
  insurance	
  or	
  by	
  existing	
   contractual	
  arrangements	
  with	
  Rolls-­‐Royce.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   remains	
   in	
   discussions	
   with	
   Rolls-­‐Royce	
   in	
   relation	
   to	
   a	
   commercial	
   settlement	
   to	
   compensate	
   the	
  
       airline	
   for	
  the	
  economic	
  loss	
  incurred.	
  While	
   discussions	
  continue,	
  no	
  agreement	
  has	
  yet	
  been	
   reached.	
  
	
  
       Segment	
  Performance	
  
       Mr	
  	
   Joyce	
  	
   said	
  	
   all	
  	
   operating	
  	
   segments	
  	
   of	
  	
   the	
  	
   Qantas	
  	
   Group	
  	
   were	
  	
   profitable	
  	
   for	
  	
  the	
  	
   half-­‐year	
  	
   ended	
  	
   31	
  
       December	
  2010,	
   delivering	
  significant	
  EBIT	
   growth.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas	
  Airlines	
  	
   produced	
  	
   a	
  	
   strong	
  	
   revenue	
  	
   performance	
  	
   across	
  	
   both	
  	
   its	
  	
   international	
  	
   and	
  	
   domestic	
  
       operations,	
  with	
  Underlying	
  EBIT	
   of	
  $165	
   million	
   up	
  175	
  per	
  cent	
  on	
  prior	
  year	
  first	
  half,”	
   Mr	
  Joyce	
   said.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas	
   remains	
   the	
   best	
   domestic	
   airline	
   for	
   the	
   business	
   market	
   in	
   terms	
   of	
   frequency,	
   product,	
   service,	
  
       large	
   wide	
  and	
  narrow	
   body	
   fleets,	
   industry-­‐leading	
  punctuality	
  and	
  an	
  unsurpassed	
  loyalty	
   program.	
  
	
  
       “Domestic	
   market	
  share	
  was	
  maintained,	
  as	
  was	
  yield	
  premium	
   in	
  the	
  corporate	
   market.	
   The	
  international	
  business	
  
       remains	
   challenging	
  but	
  with	
  demand	
  expected	
  to	
  strengthen	
  in	
  coming	
   months.	
  
	
  
       “QantasLink	
   also	
   delivered	
   a	
   strong	
   contribution	
   to	
   the	
   Qantas	
   Airlines	
   result	
   and	
   is	
   set	
   to	
   grow	
   with	
   the	
  
       addition	
   of	
  a	
  further	
  seven	
  new	
  Q400	
  aircraft,	
   the	
  first	
  of	
  which	
  has	
  just	
  entered	
   service.	
   The	
  regional	
   airline	
  
       operation	
   will	
  also	
  oversee	
   the	
  Group’s	
   move	
  into	
  the	
  Western	
   Australian	
   fly-­‐in-­‐fly-­‐out	
  resources	
   air	
  charter	
  market	
  
       through	
   the	
  purchase	
  of	
  Network	
  Aviation.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas’	
   three-­‐year	
   transformation	
   program,	
   QFuture,	
   continued	
   to	
   deliver	
   sustainable	
   margin	
   improvements	
  
       alongside	
   an	
   expanded	
   suite	
   of	
   full	
   service	
   customer	
   product	
   and	
   service	
   offerings.	
   The	
   program	
   delivered	
  
       $173	
  million	
  in	
  benefits	
  across	
  a	
  range	
  of	
  business	
  areas	
  in	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
  and	
  is	
  on	
  track	
  to	
  achieve	
  the	
  FY11	
  
       target	
   of	
  $500	
   million,	
   and	
  $1.5	
  billion	
   in	
  benefits	
   over	
  three	
   years.”	
  
	
  
       Mr	
   Joyce	
   said	
   Jetstar	
   delivered	
   another	
   record	
   profit	
   (Underlying	
   EBIT	
   of	
   $143	
   million,	
   up	
   18	
   per	
   cent)	
   and,	
  
       after	
  Qantas,	
   was	
  Australia’s	
  second	
   most	
   profitable	
  domestic	
  airline.	
  
	
  
       “Jetstar	
   continued	
   to	
   grow	
   and	
   maintain	
   its	
   low	
   fares	
   market	
   leadership	
   position	
   in	
   Australia	
   and	
   Asia	
   –	
   the	
  
       world’s	
  fastest	
  growing	
  aviation	
  market	
  –	
  and	
  grew	
  capacity	
  by	
  19	
  per	
  cent	
  across	
  its	
  operations	
  compared	
  to	
  
       1H10,”	
   he	
  said.	
  
	
  
       “Jetstar	
  has	
  been	
  profitable	
   every	
  year	
  since	
  its	
  launch	
  in	
  2004	
  and,	
  in	
  keeping	
   with	
  this	
  history,	
  continued	
   to	
  expand	
  
       its	
  international	
  and	
  domestic	
   networks,	
  attracting	
   significant	
   growth	
  in	
  passenger	
   numbers,	
   while	
  still	
  reducing	
  its	
  
       unit	
  costs.	
  
	
  
       “Jetstar	
  Asia	
  contributed	
   a	
  record	
  profit	
  (Underlying	
   EBIT	
  of	
  S$17	
  million)	
  to	
  Jetstar’s	
   result.	
  It	
  has	
  embedded	
  the	
  
       Jetstar	
   brand	
   in	
   Asia	
   across	
   a	
   range	
   of	
   key	
   markets	
   and,	
   as	
   the	
   largest	
   low	
   cost	
   carrier	
   operating	
   from




	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2	
  
 
Singapore,	
  achieved	
  capacity	
   growth	
   of	
   46	
   per	
   cent	
   compared	
  to	
   1H10.	
   The	
   airline	
   also	
   launched	
  A330	
  services	
  
out	
  of	
  Singapore	
  during	
   the	
  half,	
  and	
  is	
  well	
  positioned	
  for	
  future	
   growth.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas	
   Frequent	
   Flyer	
  (Underlying	
   EBIT	
  of	
  $189	
  million)	
   once	
  again	
  delivered	
   a	
  record	
  result,	
  this	
  time	
  a	
  20	
  per	
  
       cent	
  improvement	
  on	
  the	
  comparable	
  half-­‐year.	
  
	
  
       “Program	
  membership	
  continued	
   to	
  grow	
  –	
  now	
  at	
  7.5	
  million,	
  up	
  12	
  per	
  cent	
  over	
  the	
  last	
  12	
  months.	
   It	
  also	
  added	
  
       new	
  partners,	
   including	
   Caltex,	
   as	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  Woolworths	
   Group	
   alliance,	
   and	
  OnePath	
   life	
  insurance,	
  and	
  
       launched	
  multiple	
   market	
   leading	
   credit	
   card	
  products.”	
  
	
  
       The	
  result	
  of	
  Qantas	
  Freight	
  (Underlying	
   EBIT	
  of	
  $41	
  million,	
  up	
  141	
  per	
  cent),	
  confirmed	
   the	
  strong	
  recovery	
  of	
  
       the	
  international	
  air	
  freight	
   market.	
  
	
  
       Investment	
  in	
  Fleet	
   and	
  Customer	
  Initiatives	
  
       Mr	
  Joyce	
  said	
  the	
  Group	
  remained	
   committed	
   to	
  cost	
  effective	
   investment	
   in	
  customer	
   product,	
   service,	
  innovation	
  
       and	
  fleet.	
  
	
  
       “Investment	
  –	
  $1	
  billion	
  in	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
   –	
  in	
  our	
  customer	
   offering	
   and	
  the	
  best,	
  modern,	
   next	
  generation	
  fuel	
  
       efficient	
   fleet	
   remain	
   integral	
   to	
   our	
   strategy	
   of	
   making	
   Qantas	
   the	
   best	
   premium	
   airline,	
   and	
   maintaining	
  
       Jetstar’s	
  position	
   as	
  the	
  low	
  fare	
  leader	
   in	
  Australia	
  and	
  across	
   Asia,”	
   he	
  said.	
  
	
  
       “Qantas’	
   international	
   transformation	
   continued,	
   with	
   the	
   arrival	
   of	
   more	
   A380s	
   and	
   the	
   commencement	
   later	
  
       this	
  year	
  of	
  the	
  fleet	
  reconfiguration	
  will	
  bring	
  the	
  B747	
  product	
  to	
  the	
  ultra-­‐premium	
  A380	
  standard	
   and	
  better	
  
       match	
   travel	
   class	
   options	
   to	
  demand.	
  
	
  
       “The	
   B787	
   also	
   remains	
   central	
   to	
   the	
   Group’s	
   international	
   strategy	
   and	
   our	
   multi-­‐billion	
   dollar	
   fleet	
   and	
  
       growth	
   plan,	
   and	
  the	
  first	
  aircraft	
   is	
  now	
  expected	
  at	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  2012.	
  
	
  
       “Another	
  key	
  development	
   has	
  been	
  the	
  successful	
  launch	
  of	
  Qantas’	
  faster,	
  smarter	
  Next	
  Generation	
  Check-­‐	
  in	
  
       offering	
   in	
  Perth,	
   Sydney,	
  and	
  Melbourne.”	
  
	
  
       Outlook	
  
       The	
  general	
   operating	
  environment	
  continues	
  to	
  improve.	
  
	
  
       Forward	
   bookings	
   indicate	
   yields	
   in	
   the	
   second	
   half	
   of	
   FY11	
   will	
   be	
   higher	
   than	
   the	
   same	
   period	
   in	
   FY10,	
  
       noting	
   that	
  the	
  first	
  half	
  is	
  typically	
   a	
  stronger	
  revenue	
  period	
   due	
  to	
  seasonal	
  factors.	
  
	
  
       The	
   Group	
   expects	
   to	
   increase	
   capacity	
   in	
   the	
   second	
   half	
   of	
   FY11	
   by	
   11	
   per	
   cent	
   compared	
   to	
   the	
   same	
  period	
  
       in	
  FY10,	
   while	
   maintaining	
  flexibility.	
  
	
  
       As	
  at	
  14	
  February	
  2011,	
  underlying	
  fuel	
  costs	
  for	
  the	
  second	
  half	
  of	
  FY11	
  are	
  estimated	
  to	
  increase	
  to	
  around	
  
       $2.0	
   billion	
   due	
   to	
   higher	
   forward	
   market	
   jet	
   fuel	
   prices	
   and	
   increased	
   flying.	
   Fuel	
   surcharges,	
   fare	
   increases	
  and	
  
       hedging	
   are	
  being	
   used	
   to	
  mitigate	
   the	
  impact	
   of	
  fuel	
  price	
   rises.	
  
	
  
       However,	
   a	
  number	
  of	
  significant	
   weather	
  events	
  are	
  impacting	
   current	
  trading	
  conditions,	
   including	
   the	
  
       Queensland	
  floods	
  (estimated	
  to	
  impact	
  second	
  half	
  FY11	
  Underlying	
  PBT	
  by	
  up	
  to	
  $55	
  million)	
  and	
  Cyclone	
  Yasi	
  in	
  
       North	
   Queensland	
  (estimated	
  to	
  impact	
   second	
   half	
  FY11	
   Underlying	
  PBT	
  by	
  up	
  to	
  $15	
  million).	
  
	
  
       The	
   Qantas	
   Group	
   estimates	
   the	
   A380	
   disruptions	
   will	
   have	
   an	
   impact	
   of	
   $25	
   million	
   in	
   the	
   second	
   half	
   of	
  
       FY11,	
  in	
  addition	
   to	
  the	
  $55	
  million	
  in	
  the	
  first	
  half	
  of	
  FY11.	
  Qantas	
  remains	
   in	
  discussions	
  with	
  Rolls-­‐Royce	
  in	
  
       relation	
   to	
   compensation	
   for	
   the	
   economic	
   loss	
   incurred.	
   No	
   agreement	
   has	
   been	
   reached	
   at	
   this	
   stage.	
   Any	
  
       compensation	
  will	
  be	
  recognised	
  in	
  the	
  Group’s	
   Underlying	
  PBT	
  in	
  the	
  relevant	
   period.	
  
	
  
       Given	
   the	
  first	
  half	
  result,	
   Underlying	
  PBT	
  for	
  FY11	
   is	
  expected	
  to	
  be	
  materially	
  stronger	
  than	
  FY10.	
  
	
  
       However,	
  changes	
  	
   in	
  	
  fuel	
  	
  prices,	
  	
  foreign	
  	
  exchange	
  	
   rates,	
  	
  general	
  	
  trading	
  	
  conditions	
  	
   and	
  	
  the	
  	
  impact	
  	
   of	
  
       significant	
   weather	
   events	
  could	
  rapidly	
  impact	
  earnings.	
   It	
  is	
  therefore	
   not	
  possible	
   to	
  provide	
   a	
  more	
  specific	
  
       forecast	
   at	
  this	
  time	
  given	
   the	
  volatility	
   and	
  uncertainty	
  of	
  the	
  aviation	
   market.	
  



	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3	
  
 
       Dividend	
  
       The	
  Board	
  remains	
  committed	
  to	
  the	
  resumption	
  of	
  dividend	
  payments.	
  As	
  previously	
  disclosed	
  to	
  the	
  market,	
  the	
  
       quantum	
   and	
  timing	
  of	
  this	
  will	
  depend	
  on	
  actual	
  and	
  forecast	
   trading	
  results,	
  market	
  conditions,	
   the	
  maintenance	
  of	
  
       an	
  investment	
  grade	
   credit	
   rating	
   and	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  capital	
   expenditure	
  commitments.	
  
	
  
       In	
  	
  the	
  	
  first	
  	
  half	
  	
  of	
  	
  financial	
  	
   year	
  	
  2011,	
  	
  the	
  	
  operating	
  	
   performance	
  	
   of	
  	
  all	
  	
  Qantas	
  	
  businesses	
  	
   improved	
  
       significantly	
  and	
  the	
  Board	
  is	
   confident	
  in	
  the	
  outlook	
  for	
  the	
  company.	
  However,	
  significant	
  capital	
  investment	
  is	
  
       being	
  undertaken,	
  reflecting	
   a	
  fleet	
  renewal	
   to	
  bolster	
  the	
  foundations	
  for	
  future	
  growth.	
   Considering	
  this	
  
       investment	
   program	
   alongside	
   the	
   preference	
   to	
   rely	
   on	
   internally	
   generated	
   capital	
   and	
   debt	
   funding	
   for	
   this	
  
       investment,	
  the	
  Board	
   believes	
  it	
  is	
  prudent	
   not	
  to	
  pay	
  a	
  dividend	
  at	
  this	
  time.	
  
	
  
       Future	
   dividend	
  payments	
  will	
  be	
  assessed	
  against	
   ongoing	
   earnings	
  performance	
  and	
  capital	
   requirements.	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4	
  
 
APPENDIX	
  
	
  
       Review	
  of	
  Operations	
  (Extracted	
  from	
   Appendix	
  4D)	
  
	
  
                  Highlights	
  of	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
  result	
   include:	
  
                    	
  	
   Underlying	
  Profit	
  Before	
  Tax	
  up	
  56	
  per	
  cent	
  and	
  operating	
   cash	
  flows	
  up	
  by	
  54	
  per	
  cent	
  
                    	
  	
   Strong	
  growth	
  across	
  all	
  operating	
  segments	
  
                    	
  	
   Record	
  results	
  for	
  Jetstar	
  and	
  Qantas	
  Frequent	
  Flyer	
  
                    	
  	
   Result	
  achieved	
   despite	
  financial	
  impact	
  of	
  A380	
  disruptions	
  
            	
  Strong	
  revenue	
  growth	
  of	
  10	
  per	
  cent	
  achieved	
  through	
  expansion	
  of	
  capacity	
  and	
  continued	
  improvement	
  in	
  
                  yield	
  
	
  
       Underlying	
  PBT	
  Result	
   Up	
  56	
  Per	
   Cent	
  
	
  
       The	
  Qantas	
   Group	
   reported	
  an	
  Underlying	
  PBT	
  of	
  $417	
   million	
   for	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
  ended	
   31	
  December	
  2010,	
   an	
  
       increase	
  of	
  56	
  per	
  cent	
  on	
  the	
  prior	
  corresponding	
  period	
   of	
  $267	
   million.	
  
	
  
       This	
  result	
  was	
  achieved	
  while	
  overcoming	
   significant	
  operational	
   challenges	
   during	
  the	
  period	
  including	
  
       disruptions	
   to	
  the	
  A380	
  network	
  from	
  November.	
   No	
  financial	
  settlement	
   from	
  Rolls-­‐Royce	
   has	
  been	
  reflected	
  in	
  
       the	
  results.	
  
	
  
       Segment	
  Performance	
  Summary	
  
	
  
         $M	
                                                                                       December	
                          December	
                                                                                         $	
  Change	
                                                                    %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                                    2010	
                               2009	
  
         Qantas	
                                                                                   165	
                                                                                                      60	
                                                                                  105	
                                                                                175	
  
         Jetstar	
                                                                                  143	
                                                                                            121	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  22	
     	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  18	
  
         Qantas	
   Frequent	
  Flyer	
                                                             189	
                                                                                            157	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  32	
                     	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  20	
  
         Qantas	
   Freight	
                                                                       41	
                                                                                                       17	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  24	
                                                                                    141	
  
         Jetset	
   Travelworld	
  Group	
                                                          3	
                       	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  5	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (2)	
                                                                           (40)	
  
         Corporate/Unallocated	
                                                                    (94)	
                                                                                         (67)	
                                                                                          (27)	
         	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  40	
  
         Eliminations	
                                                                             5	
                                                                                                        14	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (9)	
                                                                                 (64)	
  
         Underlying	
  EBIT	
                                                                       452	
                                                                                            307	
                                                                                           145	
        	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  47	
  
         Underlying	
  net	
  finance	
   costs	
                                                   (35)	
                                                                                         (40)	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  5	
                                                                                     (13)	
  
         Underlying	
  PBT	
                                                                        417	
                                                                                            267	
                                                                                           150	
        	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  56	
  
	
  
       Strong	
   Growth	
   in	
  all	
  Operating	
  Segments	
  
	
  
       All	
  operating	
   segments	
   have	
  improved	
   contributions	
   to	
  Underlying	
   PBT,	
  delivering	
  strong	
  growth	
  compared	
   to	
  the	
  
       prior	
   corresponding	
   period.	
   Qantas	
   and	
   Qantas	
   Freight	
   achieved	
   growth	
   in	
   excess	
   of	
   100	
   percent.	
   Both	
  Jetstar	
  
       and	
  Qantas	
   Frequent	
  Flyer	
   delivered	
  record	
   half-­‐year	
  results.	
  
	
  
       Capacity	
   and	
  Yield	
   Recovery	
  
	
  
       Despite	
  	
  the	
  	
  challenges	
  	
   presented	
  	
   during	
  	
  the	
  	
  period,	
  	
  the	
  	
  Group	
  	
  achieved	
  	
   strong	
  	
  revenue	
  	
   growth.	
  	
  	
  	
  Total	
  
       revenue	
  	
   for	
  	
  the	
  	
  half-­‐year	
  	
   increased	
  	
   10	
  	
  per	
  	
  cent	
  	
  from	
  	
  $6,909	
  	
  million	
  	
  to	
  	
  $7,591	
  	
  million.	
  	
  Average	
  	
   yields,	
  
       excluding	
   foreign	
  exchange	
   (FX)	
  movements,	
  increased	
   by	
  7	
  per	
  cent	
  reflecting	
   the	
  continued	
   improvement	
  in	
  
       premium	
   business	
   following	
   the	
   Global	
   Financial	
   Crisis.	
  	
   Capacity	
   increased	
   7	
  per	
  cent	
   following	
   the	
   addition	
  of	
  
       22	
  aircraft	
   to	
  the	
  Group	
   fleet	
  between	
  31	
  December	
  2009	
   and	
  31	
  December	
  2010.	
  
	
  
       The	
  Group’s	
  revenue	
  performance	
  has	
  been	
  supported	
  by	
   maintaining	
  the	
  Group’s	
  target	
  of	
   65	
   per	
  cent	
  share	
  of	
  the	
  
       domestic	
   Australian	
   market,	
  industry	
   leading	
  on	
  time	
  performance,	
  and	
  continued	
   efforts	
  to	
  improve	
   and	
  ensure	
  
       customer	
   safety	
   and	
   satisfaction.	
   Qantas	
   Frequent	
   Flyer’s	
   record	
   result	
   has	
   been	
   built	
   on	
   continuing	
  robust	
  
       growth	
   in	
  members	
  and	
  program	
  affiliates.	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5	
  
 
 Expenses	
   for	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
   were	
  $7,227	
  million,	
  an	
  increase	
  of	
  7	
  per	
  cent	
  from	
  the	
  prior	
  corresponding	
   period	
  of	
  
$6,766	
   million.	
   Cost	
   increases	
   were	
   in	
   line	
   with	
   the	
   Group’s	
   capacity	
   growth	
   of	
   7	
   per	
   cent.	
  	
   However	
   fuel	
  costs	
  
increased	
   by	
  10	
  per	
  cent,	
  impacted	
   by	
  higher	
  average	
   fuel	
  prices	
  in	
  the	
  current	
  period	
  compared	
   to	
  the	
  prior	
  
corresponding	
  period.	
  
	
  
       The	
   Rolls-­‐Royce	
   A380	
   engine	
   disruptions	
   and	
   associated	
   loss	
   of	
   capacity	
   unfavourably	
   affected	
   unit	
   cost	
   in	
  the	
  	
  
       first	
  	
  half.	
  	
  After	
  	
  allowing	
  	
   for	
  	
  the	
  	
  effects	
  	
  of	
  	
  A380	
  	
  disruptions	
  	
   and	
  	
  reduced	
  	
   average	
  	
   sector	
  	
  length	
  	
  the	
  
       Comparable	
  Net	
  Underlying	
  Unit	
  Cost	
  performance	
  is	
  favourable	
  by	
  1	
  per	
  cent.	
  
	
  
       Operating	
  Statistics	
  
	
     	
                                                                                                                                                                                                  %
	
  
	
            Available Seat Kilometres
	
            Revenue Passenger Kilometres
	
            Passenger
	
            Seat                                                                                                                                                            	
  
	
  
              Yield (Excluding
	
  
              Net Underlying Unit
	
  
              Comparable Net Underlying Unit
	
  
	
     	
  
       1	
  ASK	
  –	
  total	
  number	
  of	
   seats	
  available	
  for	
   passengers,	
   multiplied	
  by	
   the	
   number	
  of	
   kilometres	
   flown	
  
       2	
  RPK	
  –	
  total	
  number	
  of	
   paying	
  passengers	
   carried,	
  multiplied	
  by	
  the	
   number	
  of	
   kilometres	
   flown	
  
       3	
   Net	
   Underlying	
   Unit	
   Cost	
   –	
   Underlying	
   PBT	
   less	
   Passenger	
   Revenue,	
   fuel	
   and	
   Frequent	
   Flyer	
   change	
   in	
   accounting	
   estimate	
  per	
  
       ASK	
  
       4	
  Comparable	
   Net	
   Underlying	
   Unit	
   Cost–	
   Net	
   Underlying	
   Unit	
   Cost	
   adjusted	
   for	
   the	
   impact	
   of	
   A380	
   disruptions	
   and	
   reduced	
   average	
  sector	
  
       length	
  
	
  
       Capital	
   Expenditure	
  Supported	
  by	
  Strong	
   Balance	
  Sheet	
   and	
  Operating	
  Cash	
   Flows	
  
	
  
       Operating	
  cash	
  flows	
  grew	
  to	
  $743	
  million,	
  an	
  increase	
  of	
  54	
  per	
  cent	
  on	
  the	
  prior	
  corresponding	
   period	
  result	
  of	
  
       $483	
   million,	
   in	
  line	
  with	
  the	
  growth	
   in	
  earnings.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   Group	
  cash	
  was	
  $3,337	
  million	
  at	
  31	
  December	
  2010,	
  a	
  decrease	
   of	
  $367	
  million	
  from	
  30	
  June	
  2010	
  resulting	
  
       from	
   aircraft	
   purchases	
   partially	
   funded	
   from	
   cash	
   reserves	
   and	
   the	
   deconsolidation	
   of	
   cash	
   held	
   in	
  Jetset	
  
       Travelworld	
  Group.	
  
	
  
              $M	
                                                                        December	
                           December	
               $	
  Change	
                   %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                          2010	
                                   2009	
  
              Cash	
   at	
  Beginning	
                                                  3,704	
                                   3,617	
   87	
                                   2	
  
              Operating	
  Cash	
   Flow	
                                                743	
                                       483	
                        260	
             54	
  
              Investing	
  Cash	
   Flow	
                                                (1,076)	
                                 (947)	
                      (129)	
             14	
  
              Financing	
  Cash	
   Flow	
                                                (20)	
                                      345	
                      (365)	
                       (106)	
  
              Effect	
   of	
  Foreign	
   Exchange	
  on	
  Cash	
                       (14)	
                     -­‐	
                                        (14)	
             -­‐	
  
              Cash	
   at	
  Half-­‐Year	
  End	
                                         3,337	
                                   3,498	
                      (161)	
             (5)	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
  	
   has	
  	
  retained	
  	
   a	
   strong	
  	
  balance	
  	
   sheet	
  	
  and	
  	
  a	
  	
  secure	
  	
  capital	
  	
  position	
  	
   while	
  	
  supporting	
  	
   substantial	
  
       ongoing	
   investment	
  in	
  the	
  Group’s	
   portfolio	
   of	
  businesses.	
  
	
  
       The	
  Group	
  invested	
   $1	
  billion	
  in	
  additional	
   property,	
   plant	
  and	
  equipment	
   during	
  the	
  period.	
  This	
  includes	
   the	
  
       purchase	
   of	
  six	
  aircraft,	
   progress	
   payments	
   on	
  a	
  significant	
   pipeline	
   of	
  future	
   deliveries,	
   and	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  
       Next	
  Generation	
  Check-­‐In	
  and	
  other	
   product	
   investments.	
  
	
  
       A	
  conservative	
  approach	
   to	
  capital	
  management	
  and	
  significant	
   growth	
  in	
  Operating	
   Cash	
  Flows	
  provide	
  ongoing	
  
       flexibility	
   to	
  manage	
   medium	
  term	
  capital	
  expenditure	
  and	
  funding	
  requirements	
  while	
  preserving	
  an	
  investment	
  
       grade	
   credit	
  rating.	
  	
   As	
  at	
  31	
  December	
  2010,	
   the	
  Group’s	
   gearing	
   ratio	
  is	
  52	
  per	
  cent.




	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6	
  
 
	
  
       $M	
                                                                                                                                        December	
                                                 June	
                        $	
  Change	
                                                                 %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                                                                                       2010	
                                                 2010	
  
         Net	
  Debt1	
                                                                                                                                              2,558	
                                  2,209	
                                                            349	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  16	
  
         Net	
  Debt	
  Including	
  Off	
  Balance	
  Sheet	
   Debt2	
                                                                                             6,605	
                                  6,170	
                                                            435	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  7	
  
         Equity	
   (Excluding	
  Hedge	
   Reserves)	
                                                                                                              6,041	
                                  5,896	
                                                            145	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  2	
  
         Gearing	
   Ratio3	
                                                                                                                                        52:48	
                                  51:49	
  
       1	
  Includes	
  fair	
   value	
  of	
   hedges	
  related	
  to	
   debt	
  and	
   aircraft	
  security	
  deposits	
  
       2	
  	
   Includes	
  	
   non-­‐cancellable	
  	
   operating	
  	
   leases,	
  	
   excluding	
  	
   hedge	
  	
   reserves.	
  	
   Non-­‐cancellable	
  	
   operating	
  	
   leases	
  	
   are	
  	
   a	
  	
   representation	
  
       assuming	
   assets	
  are	
   owned	
  and	
  debt	
  funded	
  and	
  is	
  not	
   consistent	
   with	
   the	
   disclosure	
   requirements	
   of	
   AASB117:	
   Leases	
  
       3	
  Gearing	
  Ratio	
  is	
  Net	
   Debt	
  to	
   Net	
   Debt	
  and	
  Equity	
  (including	
  off	
   balance	
  sheet	
  debt	
  from	
  operating	
  leases	
  excluding	
  hedge	
  reserves)	
  
	
  
       Fleet	
  
       The	
  Group	
  remains	
   committed	
  to	
  a	
  fleet	
  strategy	
   designed	
   to	
  provide	
   for	
  long	
  term	
  fleet	
  renewal,	
   simplification	
  and	
  
       growth.	
  	
   Qantas	
  continues	
  to	
   have	
  one	
   of	
   the	
   world’s	
  largest	
  aircraft	
  order	
  books,	
  with	
  173	
   new	
  aircraft	
  to	
  be	
  
       delivered	
  by	
  FY18.	
  
	
  
       These	
   include	
   13	
   more	
   A380	
   flagship	
   aircraft	
   for	
   Qantas,	
   and	
   50	
   B787	
   Dreamliners,	
   with	
   the	
   first	
   to	
   be	
  
       delivered	
   to	
   Jetstar	
   in	
   last	
   quarter	
   2012.	
  	
  	
   At	
   31	
   December	
   2010,	
   the	
   Qantas	
   Group	
   fleet	
   comprised	
   266	
  
       aircraft.	
  
	
  
       During	
   the	
  half	
  year,	
   the	
  Group	
   entered	
   13	
  new	
  aircraft	
   (6	
  purchased	
  and	
  7	
  leased)	
   into	
  service:	
  
        	
  	
   Qantas	
   –	
  1	
  A380,	
   1	
  A330-­‐200	
  
        	
  	
   Jetstar,	
   including	
  Jetstar	
   Asia	
  –	
  10	
  A320-­‐200s,	
  1	
  A330-­‐200	
  
	
  
       The	
  Group	
  retired	
  no	
  aircraft	
   during	
  the	
  half	
  year	
  but	
  did	
  return	
  one	
  leased	
  B747-­‐400.	
   Three	
  aircraft	
  are	
  scheduled	
  
       for	
  retirement	
  during	
   the	
  second	
   half	
  of	
  the	
  year.	
  
	
  
       Product	
  and	
  Service	
  
       Across	
   the	
  Group,	
   investment	
  in	
  customer	
  product,	
  service,	
   training	
   and	
  innovation	
  remains	
   a	
  core	
  focus.	
  
	
  
       Key	
  developments	
  in	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
   for	
  Qantas	
  included	
   the	
  progressive	
  roll-­‐out	
  of	
  the	
  faster,	
  smarter	
  domestic	
  Next	
  
       Generation	
  Check-­‐in	
   –	
  now	
  available	
   in	
  Perth,	
  Sydney	
   and	
  Melbourne.	
  Planning	
   also	
  continues	
   for	
  the	
  international	
  
       fleet	
  reconfiguration	
  program	
   that	
  will	
  commence	
  later	
  this	
  year.	
  It	
  will	
  see	
  nine	
  B747-­‐400s	
  upgraded	
   to	
  A380	
  
       product	
  standards	
   and	
  the	
  A380	
  fleet	
  reconfigured	
  over	
  time	
  to	
  meet	
  forecast	
   changes	
  in	
  market	
   demand.	
  
	
  
       While	
   focused	
   on	
  its	
  low	
   fare	
   leadership,	
   Jetstar	
   also	
   continued	
   its	
  investment	
   in	
  innovation,	
   including	
   in	
  the	
  
       area	
  of	
  airport	
   self-­‐service	
  and	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  iPads	
   for	
  inflight	
   entertainment	
  use.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
  
       	
                                                                                           December	
                     December	
                                                              $	
  Change	
                                   %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                                         2010	
                                                                   2009	
  
         Total	
   Revenue	
                                                    $M	
                    5,706	
                                                              5,295	
                                411	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  8	
  
         Underlying	
  EBIT	
                                                   $M	
                      165	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  60	
              105	
                                                                                 175	
  
         Seat	
  Factor	
                                                       %	
                      82.4	
                                                                         83.1	
   	
                                                                        (0.7)pts	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   achieved	
   an	
   Underlying	
   EBIT	
   of	
   $165	
   million	
   for	
   the	
   half-­‐year.	
   The	
   result	
   is	
   175	
   per	
   cent	
   above	
   the	
  prior	
  
       corresponding	
  period,	
   driven	
   by	
  a	
  $411	
   million,	
  or	
  8	
  per	
  cent,	
   increase	
  in	
  total	
  revenue.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   improved	
   yield	
  by	
  9	
  per	
  cent,	
  and	
  increased	
   capacity	
   by	
  3.3	
  per	
  cent	
  demonstrating	
  a	
  strong	
  revenue	
  
       recovery	
  across	
  both	
  international	
   and	
  domestic	
  business.	
  	
   The	
  result	
  was	
  achieved	
  despite	
  the	
  significant	
  
       operational	
   and	
  financial	
  challenges	
   of	
  the	
  A380	
  disruptions	
   and	
  northern	
  hemisphere	
   snow	
  storms	
  during	
  the	
  
       period.	
  
	
  
       QantasLink	
   continued	
   to	
  deliver	
   a	
  strong	
   contribution	
   to	
  the	
  Qantas	
   Airlines	
   result	
   with	
  capacity	
   growing	
   10.6	
  
       per	
  cent.	
  	
   QantasLink	
  has	
  also	
  added	
   fly-­‐in-­‐fly-­‐out	
  charter	
   capability	
  with	
  the	
  acquisition	
  of	
  Network	
  Aviation.




	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          7	
  
 
Looking	
   ahead,	
   Qantas	
   is	
   expecting	
   to	
   grow	
   its	
   domestic	
   and	
   international	
   capacity,	
   adding	
   4.5	
   per	
   cent	
   for	
  
domestic	
   (including	
  	
  QantasLink),	
  	
  and	
   4.3	
   per	
   cent	
   in	
   international	
  	
  capacity	
   during	
   the	
   second	
   half.	
  	
  	
   This	
  
includes	
   the	
  return	
   of	
  the	
  A380	
   fleet	
  to	
  full	
  program	
  by	
  March	
   2011.	
  
	
  
       QFuture	
  
       QFuture	
   is	
   the	
   key	
   business	
   change	
   program	
   within	
   Qantas,	
   designed	
   to	
   position	
   the	
   airline	
   for	
   profitable	
  
       growth.	
   It	
   involves	
   transformational	
   change	
   across	
   the	
   airline,	
   with	
   total	
   benefits	
   of	
   $1.5	
   billion	
   targeted	
   over	
  
       the	
  3	
  years	
   FY10	
   to	
  FY12	
   to	
  underpin	
  unit	
  cost	
  reduction	
  and	
  margin	
   improvement.	
  
	
  
       For	
  the	
  half-­‐year,	
   benefits	
   of	
  $173	
  million	
  have	
  been	
  achieved	
   (including	
   IT).	
  The	
  majority	
   of	
  the	
  benefits	
   were	
  
       contributed	
   by	
   the	
   Commercial,	
   Customer	
   &	
   Marketing	
   and	
   Engineering	
   divisions	
   of	
   the	
   Qantas	
   segment.	
  
       Qantas	
  is	
  also	
  on	
  track	
  to	
  achieve	
   the	
  FY11	
  target	
  of	
  $500	
  million	
  and	
  the	
  $1.5	
  billion	
  in	
  benefits	
   over	
  three	
  years.	
  
	
  
       Jetstar	
  
       	
                                                                              December	
                   December	
                          $	
  Change	
                                                 %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                           2010	
                        2009	
  
                   Total	
   Revenue	
                                $M	
                 1,346	
                      1,131	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  215	
              	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  19	
  
                   Underlying	
  EBIT	
                               $M	
                   143	
                        121	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  22	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  18	
  
                   Seat	
  Factor	
                                   %	
                   79.6	
                       80.2	
   	
                                                                                                            (0.6)pts	
  
	
  
       Jetstar	
   achieved	
   a	
   record	
   result	
   for	
   the	
   period,	
   with	
   an	
   Underlying	
   EBIT	
   of	
   $143	
   million,	
   an	
   18	
   per	
   cent	
  
       increase	
  on	
  the	
  prior	
  corresponding	
  period.	
  
	
  
       Jetstar	
   increased	
  domestic	
  capacity	
   by	
  20	
  per	
  cent	
  and	
  international	
  capacity	
  by	
  18	
  per	
  cent,	
  resulting	
   in	
  a	
  net	
  
       capacity	
   increase	
   of	
  19	
  per	
  cent	
  versus	
  the	
  prior	
  corresponding	
  period.	
  Yield	
  improvements	
  and	
  a	
  15	
  per	
  cent	
  
       increase	
   in	
  passenger	
  numbers	
   versus	
   the	
  prior	
  corresponding	
  period	
  have	
  resulted	
   in	
  an	
  increase	
   in	
  Jetstar’s	
  
       revenue	
  of	
  $215	
   million	
   (19	
  per	
  cent).	
  
	
  
       Jetstar	
  has	
  also	
  achieved	
   continuing	
   improvements	
  in	
  unit	
  cost.	
  Unit	
  cost	
  (excluding	
   fuel)	
  has	
  fallen	
  2	
  per	
  cent	
  
       compared	
  to	
  the	
  previous	
  corresponding	
  period.	
  
	
  
       Jetstar’s	
   record	
   result	
   reflects	
   its	
   status	
   as	
   one	
   of	
   the	
   fastest	
   growing	
   airlines	
   in	
   Asia,	
   the	
   world’s	
   largest	
  
       aviation	
   market.	
   Operations	
  now	
  span	
  two	
  continents	
   and	
  four	
  countries,	
   with	
  379	
  flights	
  per	
  day	
  and	
  growing.	
  This	
  
       growth	
   will	
  continue	
   with	
  the	
  delivery	
   of	
  15	
  B787s	
   from	
  late	
  2012.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   Frequent	
  Flyer	
  
	
  
       	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                $                                        %
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
                 Total
	
                 Underlying
	
                 Normalisation
	
                 Normalised
	
     	
  
       1	
  	
  
        Normalised	
   EBIT	
  is	
  a	
  non-­‐statutory	
   measure	
  which	
  restates	
  redemption	
   revenue	
  to	
   the	
   fair	
   value	
  of	
   awards	
  redeemed	
   (removing	
  the	
  
       impact	
  of	
   the	
   change	
  in	
  accounting	
   estimate)	
   and	
  recognises	
   the	
   marketing	
   revenue	
  when	
  a	
  point	
  is	
  sold.	
  This	
  creates	
  a	
  comparable	
  basis	
  
       for	
   the	
   presentation	
   of	
   results.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   Frequent	
   Flyer	
   achieved	
   an	
   Underlying	
   EBIT	
   of	
   $189	
   million,	
   which	
   was	
   $32	
   million	
   higher	
   than	
   the	
  
       prior	
  corresponding	
  period	
   and	
  Normalised	
  EBIT	
   growth	
   of	
  36	
  per	
  cent.	
  
	
  
 Qantas	
  	
   Frequent	
  	
   Flyer’s	
  	
   result	
  	
  reflects	
  	
   positive	
  	
   growth	
  	
   in	
  	
  new	
  	
  members	
  	
   driven	
  	
  by	
  	
  the	
  	
  development	
  	
   of	
  
 products	
   and	
  services	
  with	
  key	
  business	
   partners.	
   Membership	
  has	
  increased	
   12	
  percent	
  on	
  the	
  prior	
  
 corresponding	
  period	
   to	
  7.5	
  million	
   members.
Billings	
   increased	
   by	
   9	
   per	
   cent	
   compared	
   to	
   the	
   prior	
   corresponding	
   period,	
   driven	
   by	
   capacity	
   increases	
  
across	
   the	
  flying	
   businesses	
  and	
  additional	
  revenue	
  from	
  new	
  members.	
  
	
  
       The	
   development	
   of	
   the	
   Woolworths	
   partnership	
   in	
   particular	
   has	
   contributed	
   incremental	
   airline	
   revenue	
   as	
  
       well	
  as	
  growth	
  in	
  Woolworths’	
  billings	
   as	
  the	
  program	
   matures.	
   These	
  outcomes	
   highlight	
   the	
  value	
  of	
  Qantas’	
  
       portfolio	
   of	
  businesses,	
   and	
   especially	
   Qantas	
   Frequent	
   Flyer,	
   in	
   maximising	
   the	
   returns	
   generated	
   from	
   the	
  core	
  
       flying	
   brands.	
  	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8	
  
 
	
  
       Qantas	
   Freight	
  
       	
                                                                                                   December	
                                                                                 December	
                                                                                      $	
  Change	
                                         %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                                                                                           2010	
                                                                                     2009	
  
         Total	
   Revenue	
                                                $M	
                                                                                      545	
                                                                                      494	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  51	
           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  10	
  
         Underlying	
  EBIT	
                                               $M	
           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  41	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  17	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  24	
                                                                         141	
  
         Load	
   Factor	
                                                  %	
                                                                                  60.3	
                                                                                     59.9	
   	
                                                                                                                            0.4pts	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   Freight’s	
  	
   Underlying	
  	
   EBIT	
  	
   of	
  	
   $41	
  	
   million	
  	
   is	
  	
   more	
  	
   than	
  	
   double	
  	
   the	
  	
   $17	
  	
   million	
  	
   from	
  	
   the	
  	
   prior	
  
       corresponding	
  period.	
  
	
  
       Qantas	
   Freight’s	
   result	
  reflects	
   a	
  recovery	
   in	
  economic	
   activity	
  from	
  Global	
  Financial	
   Crisis	
  lows	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  stronger	
  
       volumes	
   and	
  yields,	
  principally	
   on	
  key	
  China/US	
   routes.	
  Yield	
  has	
  improved	
   by	
  12	
  per	
  cent	
  (excluding	
  foreign	
  
       exchange)	
  due	
  to	
  market	
   recovery	
  and	
  higher	
   fuel	
  surcharges.	
  
	
  
       The	
  domestic	
   express	
   freight	
  market	
   has	
  also	
  improved,	
  resulting	
   in	
  higher	
  earnings	
   from	
  the	
  joint	
  venture	
  
       businesses	
  Australian	
  air	
  Express	
  and	
  Star	
   Track	
   Express.	
  
	
  
       Statutory	
  Result	
  
	
  
         $M	
                                                                                              December	
  2010	
                                                                                                                     December	
  2009	
                                                                                                                      $Change	
                                     	
  	
  
         Non-­‐Recurring	
  Items	
                                                                        417	
                                                                                                                                  267	
                                                                                                                                   150	
  
         Ineffectiveness	
  and	
  Non-­‐designated	
  
         Derivatives	
  relating	
  to	
  other	
  reporting	
                                             (50)	
                                                                                                                                 (48)	
                                                                                                                                 (2)	
  
         periods	
        	
         	
             	
                                                       (45)	
                                                	
                                         	
                                   (129)	
   	
                                                                               	
                                         84	
  
         	
  
         Statutory	
  PBT	
          	
             	
     	
                                                           322	
                                      	
                                         	
                                        90	
                                       	
                                         	
                                         232	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
       Statutory	
  PBT	
  has	
  improved	
  to	
  $322	
   million	
   from	
  $90	
  million.	
  
	
  
       Statutory	
  	
   PBT	
  	
   includes	
  	
   ineffectiveness	
  	
   and	
  	
   non-­‐designated	
  	
   derivative	
  	
   losses	
  	
   relating	
  	
   to	
  	
   other	
  	
   reporting	
  
       periods.	
  
	
  
       Non-­‐recurring	
  items	
   included	
  in	
  the	
  half-­‐year	
  statutory	
  result	
   are:	
  
        	
   loss	
  on	
  disposal	
  and	
  other	
   transaction	
  costs	
   relating	
   to	
  the	
  Jetset	
   Travelworld	
  Group	
   merger	
   of	
  $29	
  million	
  
        	
   profit	
   on	
  the	
  sale	
  of	
  the	
  DPEX	
   Group	
   of	
  $5	
  million	
  
        	
   provisions	
  for	
  freight	
   regulatory	
  fines	
  and	
  third	
  party	
   actions	
   of	
  $26	
  million




	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9	
  
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Accounting project

  • 1.           ACCOUNTING  ANNOUNCEMENT  ASSIGNMENT   Qantas  Airways  (QAN),  Virgin  Blue  (VBN)  and  Skywest  (SXR)   Laura  Fernandez  (13179100)  and  Stian  Larsen  (13163941)                                     Submission  Date:  22/07/11   Word  Count:  2026   Subject  Code:  ACCT11-­‐100   Lecture  Times:  (Wednesday  8-­‐10  and  Thursday  2-­‐4)   Lecturer:  Tamara  Zunker       1  
  • 2. CONTENTS       1.0  Executive  Summary  .........................................................................................................................................................  3 2.0  Objectives  ........................................................................................................................................................................  3   3.0  The  Aviation  Industry  and  Qantas  Airways   ......................................................................................................................  4   3.1  The  Aviation  Industry  ..................................................................................................................................................  4   3.2  Qantas  Airways  ............................................................................................................................................................  4   3.3  Competitors  .................................................................................................................................................................  4   4.0  Qantas  Airways  Profit  Announcement  ............................................................................................................................  5   4.1  Expected  Impact  ..........................................................................................................................................................  5   5.0  Stock  Market  Results  .......................................................................................................................................................  5   6.0  Returns  and  Residuals  .....................................................................................................................................................  6   6.1  Cumulative  Residuals  ....................................................................................................................................................  6   7.0  Analysis  ............................................................................................................................................................................  7   7.1  Qantas  Airways  (QAN)  .................................................................................................................................................  7   7.2  Qantas  Airways  Ratio  Analysis  .....................................................................................................................................  8   7.3  Virgin  Blue  Airline  (VBN)  ..............................................................................................................................................  8   7.4  Skywest  Airways  (SXR)  .................................................................................................................................................  8   8.0  Conclusion  .......................................................................................................................................................................  9   9.0  Appendices  .......................................................................................................................................................................  i   9.1  Announcement:  “Qantas  Announces  Profit  Result  –  Half  year  ended  31  December  2010”  ........................................  i   9.2  “Qantas  Profit  Soars  But  Misses  Mark”  .......................................................................................................................  ii   9.3  “Virgin  Blue  and  Skywest”  ..........................................................................................................................................  iii   9.4  “International  Passengers  By  Major  Airlines”  ............................................................................................................  iv   9.5  Qantas  Airways  Data  Calculation   .................................................................................................................................  v   9.6  Virgin  Blue  Airways  Data  Calculation  ..........................................................................................................................  vi   9.7  Skywest  Airways  Data  Calculation  .............................................................................................................................  vii   10.0  References  ...................................................................................................................................................................     viii           2  
  • 3. 1.0  Executive  Summary   The  following  business  report  has  been  created  to  identify  the  impact  of  profit  announcements  on  a  particular  company   and  its  share  prices.  This  report  focuses  on  Australia’s  leading  airline,  Qantas  Airlines  (QAN),  as  listed  on  the  ASX.  An   analysis  of  the  relationship  between  Qantas’  residuals,  cumulative  residuals  and  share  prices  is  included,  as  well  as  a   comparison  between  Qantas  and  two  of  its  main  Australian  competitors,  Virgin  Blue  Airways  (VBN)  and  Skywest  Airlines   (SXR).  The  profit  announcement  can  be  found  in  the  appendices  (Appendix  5).  Calculations  and  graphs  are  used  to   analyse  the  change  in  the  share  prices  due  to  the  company’s  profit  announcement.   The  airlines’  financial  positions  are  discussed  and  the  results  of  this  report  indicate  that  the  profit  announcement   reflected  a  decrease  in  Qantas  Airways’  share  price  overall.  Through  analysis  of  the  graph  and  prior  media  coverage,  it  is   evident  that  Qantas’  cumulative  residuals  increased  the  day  before  the  announcement,  as  it  was  predicted  that  the   profit  announcement  would  be  positive.  A  large  decrease  followed,  despite  the  positive  results  of  earnings  about  the   expected  level  and  a  more  than  four-­‐fold  profit.  This  may  be  due  to  rising  fuel  prices  and  their  inability  to  pay  dividends.     However,  the  debt-­‐to-­‐equity  ratio,  return-­‐on-­‐equity  ratio,  current  ratio  and  total-­‐asset-­‐turnover  ratio  all  indicate  that   Qantas  has  improved  its  ability  to  finance  its  assets  through  equity  rather  debt,  generate  increasing  returns  from   shareholders’  investments,  generate  more  current  assets  to  cover  short  term  liabilities  and  increase  its  sales  revenue   faster  than  its  total  assets.   The  competitors  share  prices  varied  throughout  the  analysed  period,  with  Virgin  Blue  showing  similar  results  and   fluctuations  to  Qantas.  This  is  most  likely  because  they  are  more  similar  in  size,  target  market  and  location,  whereas   Skywest  Airways’  cumulative  residuals  were  negative  for  the  duration  of  the  period.     2.0  Objectives   • To  present  the  effects  of  releasing  accounting  information  pertaining  to  profits  on  the  valuation,  financial   position  and  share  prices  of  the  company.   • To  evaluate  the  correlation  between  the  casual  relationship  of  the  investors  and  the  disclosure  of  accounting   information  in  the  market.   • To  identify  the  effect  of  the  use  of  residuals  to  control  the  market  variables.   • To  analyse  the  factors  behind  the  financial  aspects  of  a  company.   The  objectives  within  this  report  will  apply  to  the  aviation  industry,  with  a  focus  on  analysing  Qantas’  current  financial   performance  in  contrast  with  its  competitors,  Virgin  Blue  and  Skywest.             3  
  • 4. 3.0  The  Aviation  Industry  and  Qantas  Airways   3.1  Industry     The  aviation  industry  is  one  of  the  largest  and  fastest  growing  industries  in  the  world,  increasing  at  “an  average  annual   rate  of  10%  between  1947  (19  billion  Revenue-­‐Passenger-­‐Kilometres)  and  2000  (3038  billion  RPKs)”  (Wiley,  2005,  p.  1).   With  over  890  air  carriers  listed  in  the  Official  Airlines  Guide,  an  increasing  consumer  demand  for  air  travel  and  an   escalation  in  the  ability  for  travellers  to  attain  affordable  tickets,  it  is  no  surprise  that  the  number  of  flights  scheduled  in   May  2011  has  increased  by  4.2%  globally  (OAG  Aviation,  2011),  and  simultaneously,  “industry  revenues  grew  from   US$1.05  billion  to  US$328.5  billion”  (Wiley,  2005,  p.1).  Low  cost  airlines  are  growing,  and  account  for  a  market  share  of   16%  in  2010.  The  amount  of  global  passengers  will  increase  to  more  than  nine  million  by  2025,  putting  pressure  on  the   industry  with  higher  demands  to  security,  price  and  service.       3.2  Qantas  Airways     With  over  87  years  in  service,  Qantas  is  the  longest  operating  airline  in  the  world,  being  the  first  airline  to  introduce   business  class  in  1979.  For  almost  a  decade  Qantas  has  been  voted  in  the  top  airlines  category  by  Skytrax,  and  is  the   safest  airline  in  Australia.  Qantas  is  the  only  airline  within  Australia  with  flights  to  every  capital  city,  with  over  160   destinations  and  approximately  6,000  flights  per  week  (ASX,  2011),  making  them  the  largest  airline  in  Australia.  The   Qantas  fleet  consists  of  140  airplanes,  with  27  new  planes  awaited  in  2013.  In  July  2011,  Qantas  and  its  subsidiaries   operated  a  total  of  279  aircrafts,  giving  them  a  market  share  of  65%  domestically  and  18.7%  internationally  (Qantas   Annual  Review,  2010).  Since  its  inclusion  on  the  Australian  Stock  Exchange  on  31  July  1995,  Qantas  has  reported   increasing  profits  each  year.  Qantas’  annual  net  profits  “had  grown  from  A$180  million  to  A$684  million”  with  an   increase  in  its  activity  by  62%  and  its  revenues  by  59%  between  1995  and  2004  (Wiley,  2005,  p.10).       3.3  Competitors     Virgin  Blue  and  Skywest  make  up  1.22%  and  0.18%  of  the  market  sector  respectively  (Investsmart,  2011.)  Virgin  Blue  is   part  of  the  Virgin  Group,  however  it  is  a  fairly  newly  established  company  (2000),  whereas  Skywest  began  operations  in   1963.  Virgin  Blue,  like  Qantas,  services  both  international  and  domestic  destinations.  In  contrast,  Skywest  is  renowned   for  its  position  as  Western  Australia’s  premier  regional  airline.  Skywest  was  previously  part  of  Ansett,  a  company  which   whose  carrier  fleet  was  bought  out  by  Virgin  and  Qantas  after  their  (Ansett’s)  eventually  insolvency.             4  
  • 5. 4.0  Qantas  Airways  Profit  Announcement   Qantas’  half-­‐year  profit  announcement  was  released  on  17  February  2011,  in  the  form  of  a  media  release  and  in  the   newspaper  “Sunshine  Coast  Daily”  (See  appendix  1).  It  declared  a  “profit  before  tax  of  $417  million  (up  56%  on  prior   corresponding  period)”  (Qantas  Group,  2011,  p.  1),  forecasting  growth  in  its  domestic  and  international  capacities.   4.1  Expected  Impact     It  is  expected  that  the  share  prices  of  Qantas  will  decrease  due  to  changes  in  fuel  prices,  foreign  exchange  rates  and   general  trading  conditions.  Despite  the  company  showing  a  steep  increase  in  profit  before  the  release  of  the   announcement,  the  share  prices  are  likely  to  decrease  due  to  the  impact  of  Qantas’  dividend  freeze,  which  shows   shareholders  that  Qantas’  shares  may  become  volatile.  The  dividend  freeze,  however,  may  improve  its  situation,   therefore  bringing  share  prices  back  to  a  relatively  steady  figure  again.  This  can  be  supported  by  the  stabilised   conditions  after  the  resolution  of  issues  with  the  Rolls-­‐Royce  engine  failures  and  Queensland  floods.   Qantas’  announcement  of  a  more  than  four-­‐fold  profit  (Qantas,  2011)  is  likely  to  negatively  impact  its  competitors,   Skywest  and  Virgin  Blue,  due  to  the  high  competitiveness  of  the  industry  in  which  substitutes  are  readily  available.       5.0  Stock  Market  Results   All  Ordinaries  Index   5050   5000   4950   4900   4850   4800   4750   Figure  1:  All  Ordinaries  Index   The  All  Ordinaries  Index  (AOI)  represents  the  closing  prices  of  Australia’s  500  biggest  companies  listed  on  the  ASX.  The   th AOI  is  a  good  indicator  of  the  stock  market  result.  On  the  17  of  February  (the  day  of  Qantas’  profit  announcement),  the   AOI  is  at  its  peak,  before  experiencing  a  general  trend  of  decline.         5  
  • 6. 6.0  Returns  and  Residuals   This  report  displays  the  variations  in  share  prices  and  accompanying  returns  for  the  period  pertaining  to  the  three   weeks  before  and  after  the  profit  announcement.  A  calculation  of  returns  and  residuals  was  necessary  in  order  to   illustrate  the  effects  of  the  release  of  financial  accounting  information  on  the  valuation  of  the  company.  This  is  shown   through  the  effect  of  changing  share  prices  as  a  result  of  the  announcement.     The  residuals  are  a  reflection  of  the  daily  operations  of  a  company,  and  reflect  the  general  performance  of  company   share  prices  in  relation  to  the  stock  market.  Qantas  and  Virgin  have  minimal  residual  fluctuation  for  the  period,  whereas   SkyWest’s  residuals  decrease  to  -­‐12.70%  on  February  22.  This  may  be  due  to  an  estimated  negative  profit   rd announcement,  the  day  before  its  release.  The  increase  on  the  23  may  be  due  to  the  Virgin-­‐Skywest  alliance.  Qantas   had  the  most  regular  residual  fluctuation  throughout  the  six-­‐week  period,  due  to  its  solid  market  establishment.   Returns  are  a  measurement  of  performance,  calculated  as  the  changes  in  daily  share  price  compared  to  the  previous   day.  Qantas  and  Virgin  had  a  stable  trend  on  their  returns,  with  minimal  fluctuations.  SkyWest  had  high  fluctuations   between  4%  and  -­‐12%.  The  sharp  decrease  on  February  22  may  be  associated  with  the  suspension  of  Rio  Tinto’s  mining   operations  in  Western  Australia  due  to  Cyclone  Carlos.  The  location  of  Skywest’s  operations  is  linked  to  the  resource   industry,  with  some  of  its  major  clients  being  the  mining  operators.  The  rapid  increase  in  share  prices  on  the  February   23  may  be  attributed  to  Skywest’s  positive  profit  announcement,  which  was  released  on  that  day.   Company  Returns   10.00%   5.00%   Daoly  returns   0.00%   Qantas   Virgin  Blue   -­‐5.00%   Skywest   -­‐10.00%   -­‐15.00%   Date   Figure  2:  Company  Returns     6.1  Cumulative  Residuals     The  cumulative  residual  is  the  daily  percentage  change  in  Qantas  share  prices  compared  to  the  AOI  change,  as  listed  in   the  ASX.  It  is  evident  that  the  changes  in  share  prices  are  a  direct  consequence  of  the  company’s  announcement,  as  the   information  contained  in  the  announcement  explains  profits  earned  and  losses  incurred.  The  effect  of  other  factors  in   the  valuation  of  the  company  can  be  understood  through  a  calculation  of  the  cumulative  residual  of  the  share  prices   and  share  price  index.  The  ASX  figures  peaked  at  the  same  rate  as  the  Qantas  cumulative  residuals,  indicating  the   similarity  between  Qantas  and  the  market  overall.     6  
  • 7. 7.0  Analysis   Cumulative  Residual   0.15   0.1   0.05   Cumulative  Residual   0   Qantas   -­‐0.05   Virgin  Blue   -­‐0.1   Skywest   -­‐0.15   -­‐0.2   -­‐0.25   Date   Figure  3:  Cumulative  Residuals   7.1  Qantas  Airways  (QAN)     Qantas  announced  a  four-­‐fold  profit  in  the  profit  announcement  released  on  17  February  2011.  Figure  3  is  derived  from   the  market  prices  of  the  company  (see  appendix  5)     As  figure  3  shows,  there  is  a  lot  of  fluctuation  in  the  three  weeks  prior  to  and  post  the  announcement,  however  there  is   th nd a  sharp  increase  from  -­‐0.02  on  the  16  of  February  2011  to  0.04  on  the  22  February  2011  and  a  consequent  sharp   th decrease  to  -­‐0.02  on  24  February  2011.     th Just  before  the  profit  announcement  was  made,  (16  February  2011),  an  article  was  published,  stating  that  Qantas  had   an  expected  profit  increase.  This  explains  the  major  increase  in  the  share  prices  of  Qantas  before  the  announcement.   The  massive  increase  of  the  announcement  may  also  be  attributed  to  the  domestic  Australian  market’s  strong  post-­‐GFC   growth,  as  well  as  Qantas’  announcement  of  the  lease  of  11  new  airlines  (Herald  Sun,  2011).     th Despite  Qantas  being  profitable  in  the  second  half  of  2010,  on  the  18  of  February  2011,  “Qantas  shares  fell   sharply…after  the  airline  posted  a  72%  fall  in  first-­‐half  net  profit,  did  not  pay  a  dividend  and  warned  of  further  volatility   in  the  aviation  industry”  (The  Australian,  2011,  p.1)  Figure  3  shows  the  Qantas  share  price  falling  by  as  much  as  7%,   which  can  also  be  explained  by  the  increased  fuel  prices  and  exchange  rates.  In  denying  a  payment  of  a  dividend,   Qantas  indicates  that  it  is  lacking  in  liquid  assets.  Fluctuations  are  shown  after  the  major  decrease.         7  
  • 8. 7.1  Qantas  Airways  Ratio  Analysis     The  debt-­‐to-­‐equity  ratio  shows  whether  assets  are  financed  mostly  by  debt  or  equity.  The  debt-­‐to-­‐equity  ratios  are   calculated  in  the  December  2009  to  December  2010  reporting  period.  They  show  a  positive  result  with  a  decrease  in   reliance  on  debts  from  2.45  to  2.33.  This  is  a  decrease  of  5.1  %.  This  shows  that  the  assets  of  Qantas  are  increasingly   being  financed  by  equity  rather  than  debts.     The  return-­‐on-­‐equity  ratio  indicates  how  much  return  the  company  is  generating  from  the  historical  accumulated   shareholder’s  investment.  The  analysed  period  shows  an  increase  from  0.01  in  December  2009  to  0.04  in  December   2010.    This  is  an  increase  of  16.69%.     The  current  (working  capital)  ratio  indicates  whether  the  company  has  enough  short-­‐term  assets  to  cover  its  short-­‐term   debts,  and  shows  an  increase  of  1.41%  from  0.89  in  December  2009  to  0.90  in  December  2010.     The  total-­‐asset-­‐turnover  ratio  shows  how  much  of  Qantas’  sales  volume  is  associated  with  a  dollar  of  its  assets.  In   December  2009,  the  total  asset  turnover  ratio  was  0.35,  increasing  by  8.33%  to  0.38  in  December  2010.  The  turnover   ratio  increased  because  Qantas’  sales  revenue  increased  faster  than  its  total  assets  did  in  this  period.  Ie.  Qantas  got   more  sales  out  of  each  dollar  of  its  assets.   7.3  Virgin  Blue  Airline  (VBN)     As  a  recently  established  company  with  a  relatively  small  portion  of  the  market  share  (1.22%),  Virgin  Blue  has  done  well   to  become  the  prime  competitor  to  Qantas  in  Australia.  Virgin  Blue  is  not  listed  on  the  Australian  Government’s  chart  of   2010’s  major  airlines  depicted  in  Appendix  4.   Figure  2  shows  the  cumulative  residuals  of  share  prices  for  Virgin  Blue,  accessed  from  the  company  and  market  share.  In   the  three  weeks  prior  to  Qantas’  profit  announcement,  a  relatively  steady  decrease  occurred  (from  0.11  to  0.  02)  with   minimal  fluctuation.  The  decrease  in  cumulative  residuals  may  be  explained  by  “Air  New  Zealand  (who)  has  continued   its  buy  up  of  shares  in  Virgin  Blue,  lifting  its  stake  through  off-­‐market  purchases  to  14.9%  of  Australia’s  No  2  airline”   (The  Age,  2011,  p.  1).     A  relatively  constant  period  remained  after  the  announcement,  until  February  22,  2011,  where  the  share  price   decreased  rapidly.  The  steady  decrease  from  0.06  to  -­‐0.07  occurred  in  just  over  a  week  (at  the  same  rate  and  in  the   same  period  as  Qantas).  This  could  be  due  to  the  conditions  affecting  the  major  players  in  the  Australian  aviation   industry,  such  as  rising  “fuel  prices,  foreign  exchange  rates,  general  trading  conditions  and  the  impact  of  significant   weather  events”  (Qantas,  2011,  p.1).     It  is  evident  that  the  release  of  the  Qantas  profit  announcement  had  a  significant  impact  on  the  share  prices  of  Virgin   Blue  Airways,  as  shown  in  Figure  2.         8  
  • 9. 7.4  Skywest  Airways  (SXR)     Skywest  is  Western  Australia’s  largest  regional  carrier  however  it  is  not  listed  in  the  Australian  Government’s  listing  of   th top  airlines  (see  appendix  3).  From  the  beginning  of  the  period  (27  January  2011)  to  the  17  of  February,  there  are  small   fluctuations  in  the  cumulative  residuals,  with  peaks  at  -­‐0.08  and  troughs  at  -­‐0.16.  Figure  3  is  derived  from  the  company   and  market  share  of  the  company  (see  appendix  7).   In  this  six-­‐week  period,  it  is  evident  that  there  is  a  relationship  between  the  Qantas  profit  announcement  and  the  share   prices  and  residuals  of  Skywest.  On  the  day  of  the  announcement,  the  share  price  for  Skywest  was  -­‐0.15,  however  there   th was  a  general  decreasing  trend  until  the  18  February  2011  where  the  cumulative  residuals  reached  a  trough  of  -­‐0.19.   They  then  showed  a  general  decreasing  trend  until  the  end  of  the  period.  Figure  3  shows  that  the  cumulative  residuals   never  exceeded  ‘0’,  indicating  that  despite  the  rapidly  rising  share  prices,  Skywest’s  market  share  was  always   considerably  lower  than  their  larger  competitor,  Qantas.     The  noticeable  increase  in  share  prices  may  be  due  to  the  alliance  formed  between  the  Virgin  Blue  Group  and  Skywest   airlines,  which  enabled  code  sharing  and  Skywest’s  operation  of  several  Virgin  Blue  aircraft  (see  appendix  4).     8.0  Conclusion   The  financial  performance  of  a  company  can  be  assessed  through  the  analysis  of  a  company’s  financial  statements,  its   profitability,  activity  and  liquidity.  In  order  to  make  an  accurate  assessment,  it  is  necessary  to  make  comparisons   between  the  company  being  studied,  other  competitors  in  the  industry  and  the  overall  market  occurrences.     The  above  business  report  outlines  Qantas’  financial  position,  as  well  as  that  of  its  competitors;  Virgin  Blue  and  Skywest.   Based  on  recent  market  activity,  it  is  reasonable  to  assume  that  while  the  aviation  industry  would  be  a  profitable  share   investment,  it  is  subject  to  many  external  factors,  as  previously  discussed.     The  AOI  showed  fluctuations  within  the  six-­‐week  period,  and  overall,  the  Qantas  share  prices  showed  regular   fluctuations  and  a  large  and  sudden  increase  and  decrease  around  the  release  of  the  profit  announcement.  Qantas’   profit  announcement  is  for  the  half  year  ended  December  2010,  and  indicates  that  the  release  of  the  profit   announcement  impacts  its  share  prices.  It  is  a  much  more  established  company  compared  to  its  competitors,  with  a   larger  market  share,  being  Australia’s  number  one  airline.     The  ratios  analysed  indicate  that  over  the  year,  Qantas  improved  its  profitability,  retention  of  sales,  and  debt  figures   however  they  did  not  pay  out  dividends  in  the  six-­‐week  period  and  share  prices  decreased  overall.  Qantas’  reputation   and  positive  future  prospects  combined  with  its  announced  new  fleet  of  aircraft  confirm  that  investment  in  Qantas   shares  would  be  beneficial  overall.           9  
  • 10. 9.0  Appendix  1   8.1  Announcement:  “Qantas  Announces  Profit  Result  –  Half-­‐year  Ended  31   December  2010”   QANTAS ANNOUNCES PROFIT RESULT–HALF-YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2010   SOLID RECOVERY FROM GFC AND OTHER EVENTS, STRONG GROWTH ACROSS ALL OPERATING SEGMENTS   HIGHLIGHTS:  Underlying Profit Before Tax1 of $417 million – up 56 per cent on prior corresponding period  Revenue of $7.6 billion – up 10 per cent on prior corresponding period  Operating cash flow of $743 million – up 54 per cent on prior corresponding period  Cash balance of $3.3 billion   SYDNEY,  17  February  2011:     Qantas  today  announced  an   Underlying  Profit  Before  Tax  (Underlying   PBT)  of  $417   million   for  the  half-­‐year  ended   31  December  2010.     The  Underlying  PBT  result   was  materially  stronger  than  for  the  half-­‐year  ended   31  December   2009.     Qantas  Chief  Executive   Officer,   Mr  Alan  Joyce,  said  the  result  built  on  the  Qantas  Group’s   FY10   performance  and  showed   it  had  emerged  from  the  Global   Financial  Crisis   in  a  solid  position.     “The  Qantas   Group  has  delivered   a  strong  result  and  is,  again,  one  of  the  few  airlines  to  remain   consistently  profitable  and  continue  to  hold  an  investment  grade   credit   rating,”   Mr  Joyce   said.     ”With  half-­‐year   underlying  profit  up  more  than  56  per  cent  year-­‐on-­‐year,  all  parts  of  the  Group   performed   well,  with  Jetstar  and  Qantas  Frequent  Flyer  delivering  record  half-­‐year  profits  and  Qantas  Airlines’   performance  significantly  improving.     “Qantas  and  Jetstar  are  now  the  two  most  profitable  domestic  airlines  in  Australia,  demonstrating   the   strength  of  our  two  brand   strategy   and  capacity  to  service  and  grow   both   the  business  and  leisure   sectors.     “The     Group’s     response     to     events     that     included     the     A380     Rolls-­‐Royce     engine     failure,     and     subsequent  temporary   grounding   of  the  Qantas  A380  fleet  in  November,  also  showed   us  to  be  flexible,   adaptable   and  resilient.”     Mr   Joyce   said   the   Group   was   well   positioned   to   capitalise   on   the   improving   global   aviation   environment   and  opportunities  in  both  the  premium  and  leisure   sectors.     “Domestic   business   travel  continues   to  recover   and  Qantas’  yield  premium   has  been  restored   to  pre-­‐ financial  crisis   levels,”   he  said.     “While  domestic   leisure  market  conditions   continue   to  be  highly  competitive,   Jetstar  remains  well  placed   as  the  low  fare  leader.     “While  demand   on  key  international  routes  continues  to  improve,   the  international  environment  remains   challenging.     We  remain   committed  to  improving  the  performance  of  Qantas’   international  business.”     10   i  
  • 11.   “In   Asia,   to   which   Australia’s   future   is   clearly   tied,   the   Group   is   looking   for   growth   opportunities   via   Jetstar’s   aggressive   pan-­‐Asian   growth  as  well  as  options  for  Qantas  to  capitalise   on  the  growing   demand   for  premium  travel   in   the  region.     A380   Rolls-­‐Royce  Engine   Incident  and  Fleet   Grounding   Mr  Joyce   said  the  grounding  of  the  A380   fleet  in  November  was  a  setback   for  Qantas.     “Qantas’   response   to  this  unprecedented  event  was  swift  and  appropriate.  In  very  challenging   circumstances,  and     with    the    commitment     and    hard    work    of    our    people,    we    managed     to    maintain     98    per    cent    of    our   international  operations.   While  disruptions   were  minimised,   we  regret  any  inconvenience  customers   may  have   experienced  at  the  time,”   Mr  Joyce   said.     Qantas  has  estimated   the  full-­‐year  economic   impact  to  the  business  at  $80  million,  with  $55  million  in  the  first  half   and  $25  million   forecast   in  the  second   half.     The   figure   does   not   include   the   cost   of   repair   of   the   damaged   aircraft   and   engines,   estimated   to   be   at   least   $100   million,   which   are  all  covered   by  insurance  or  by  existing   contractual  arrangements  with  Rolls-­‐Royce.     Qantas   remains   in   discussions   with   Rolls-­‐Royce   in   relation   to   a   commercial   settlement   to   compensate   the   airline   for  the  economic  loss  incurred.  While   discussions  continue,  no  agreement  has  yet  been   reached.     Segment  Performance   Mr     Joyce     said     all     operating     segments     of     the     Qantas     Group     were     profitable     for    the     half-­‐year     ended     31   December  2010,   delivering  significant  EBIT   growth.     “Qantas  Airlines     produced     a     strong     revenue     performance     across     both     its     international     and     domestic   operations,  with  Underlying  EBIT   of  $165   million   up  175  per  cent  on  prior  year  first  half,”   Mr  Joyce   said.     “Qantas   remains   the   best   domestic   airline   for   the   business   market   in   terms   of   frequency,   product,   service,   large   wide  and  narrow   body   fleets,   industry-­‐leading  punctuality  and  an  unsurpassed  loyalty   program.     “Domestic   market  share  was  maintained,  as  was  yield  premium   in  the  corporate   market.   The  international  business   remains   challenging  but  with  demand  expected  to  strengthen  in  coming   months.     “QantasLink   also   delivered   a   strong   contribution   to   the   Qantas   Airlines   result   and   is   set   to   grow   with   the   addition   of  a  further  seven  new  Q400  aircraft,   the  first  of  which  has  just  entered   service.   The  regional   airline   operation   will  also  oversee   the  Group’s   move  into  the  Western   Australian   fly-­‐in-­‐fly-­‐out  resources   air  charter  market   through   the  purchase  of  Network  Aviation.     “Qantas’   three-­‐year   transformation   program,   QFuture,   continued   to   deliver   sustainable   margin   improvements   alongside   an   expanded   suite   of   full   service   customer   product   and   service   offerings.   The   program   delivered   $173  million  in  benefits  across  a  range  of  business  areas  in  the  half-­‐year  and  is  on  track  to  achieve  the  FY11   target   of  $500   million,   and  $1.5  billion   in  benefits   over  three   years.”     Mr   Joyce   said   Jetstar   delivered   another   record   profit   (Underlying   EBIT   of   $143   million,   up   18   per   cent)   and,   after  Qantas,   was  Australia’s  second   most   profitable  domestic  airline.     “Jetstar   continued   to   grow   and   maintain   its   low   fares   market   leadership   position   in   Australia   and   Asia   –   the   world’s  fastest  growing  aviation  market  –  and  grew  capacity  by  19  per  cent  across  its  operations  compared  to   1H10,”   he  said.     “Jetstar  has  been  profitable   every  year  since  its  launch  in  2004  and,  in  keeping   with  this  history,  continued   to  expand   its  international  and  domestic   networks,  attracting   significant   growth  in  passenger   numbers,   while  still  reducing  its   unit  costs.     “Jetstar  Asia  contributed   a  record  profit  (Underlying   EBIT  of  S$17  million)  to  Jetstar’s   result.  It  has  embedded  the   Jetstar   brand   in   Asia   across   a   range   of   key   markets   and,   as   the   largest   low   cost   carrier   operating   from   2  
  • 12.   Singapore,  achieved  capacity   growth   of   46   per   cent   compared  to   1H10.   The   airline   also   launched  A330  services   out  of  Singapore  during   the  half,  and  is  well  positioned  for  future   growth.     “Qantas   Frequent   Flyer  (Underlying   EBIT  of  $189  million)   once  again  delivered   a  record  result,  this  time  a  20  per   cent  improvement  on  the  comparable  half-­‐year.     “Program  membership  continued   to  grow  –  now  at  7.5  million,  up  12  per  cent  over  the  last  12  months.   It  also  added   new  partners,   including   Caltex,   as  part  of  the  Woolworths   Group   alliance,   and  OnePath   life  insurance,  and   launched  multiple   market   leading   credit   card  products.”     The  result  of  Qantas  Freight  (Underlying   EBIT  of  $41  million,  up  141  per  cent),  confirmed   the  strong  recovery  of   the  international  air  freight   market.     Investment  in  Fleet   and  Customer  Initiatives   Mr  Joyce  said  the  Group  remained   committed   to  cost  effective   investment   in  customer   product,   service,  innovation   and  fleet.     “Investment  –  $1  billion  in  the  half-­‐year   –  in  our  customer   offering   and  the  best,  modern,   next  generation  fuel   efficient   fleet   remain   integral   to   our   strategy   of   making   Qantas   the   best   premium   airline,   and   maintaining   Jetstar’s  position   as  the  low  fare  leader   in  Australia  and  across   Asia,”   he  said.     “Qantas’   international   transformation   continued,   with   the   arrival   of   more   A380s   and   the   commencement   later   this  year  of  the  fleet  reconfiguration  will  bring  the  B747  product  to  the  ultra-­‐premium  A380  standard   and  better   match   travel   class   options   to  demand.     “The   B787   also   remains   central   to   the   Group’s   international   strategy   and   our   multi-­‐billion   dollar   fleet   and   growth   plan,   and  the  first  aircraft   is  now  expected  at  the  end  of  2012.     “Another  key  development   has  been  the  successful  launch  of  Qantas’  faster,  smarter  Next  Generation  Check-­‐  in   offering   in  Perth,   Sydney,  and  Melbourne.”     Outlook   The  general   operating  environment  continues  to  improve.     Forward   bookings   indicate   yields   in   the   second   half   of   FY11   will   be   higher   than   the   same   period   in   FY10,   noting   that  the  first  half  is  typically   a  stronger  revenue  period   due  to  seasonal  factors.     The   Group   expects   to   increase   capacity   in   the   second   half   of   FY11   by   11   per   cent   compared   to   the   same  period   in  FY10,   while   maintaining  flexibility.     As  at  14  February  2011,  underlying  fuel  costs  for  the  second  half  of  FY11  are  estimated  to  increase  to  around   $2.0   billion   due   to   higher   forward   market   jet   fuel   prices   and   increased   flying.   Fuel   surcharges,   fare   increases  and   hedging   are  being   used   to  mitigate   the  impact   of  fuel  price   rises.     However,   a  number  of  significant   weather  events  are  impacting   current  trading  conditions,   including   the   Queensland  floods  (estimated  to  impact  second  half  FY11  Underlying  PBT  by  up  to  $55  million)  and  Cyclone  Yasi  in   North   Queensland  (estimated  to  impact   second   half  FY11   Underlying  PBT  by  up  to  $15  million).     The   Qantas   Group   estimates   the   A380   disruptions   will   have   an   impact   of   $25   million   in   the   second   half   of   FY11,  in  addition   to  the  $55  million  in  the  first  half  of  FY11.  Qantas  remains   in  discussions  with  Rolls-­‐Royce  in   relation   to   compensation   for   the   economic   loss   incurred.   No   agreement   has   been   reached   at   this   stage.   Any   compensation  will  be  recognised  in  the  Group’s   Underlying  PBT  in  the  relevant   period.     Given   the  first  half  result,   Underlying  PBT  for  FY11   is  expected  to  be  materially  stronger  than  FY10.     However,  changes     in    fuel    prices,    foreign    exchange     rates,    general    trading    conditions     and    the    impact     of   significant   weather   events  could  rapidly  impact  earnings.   It  is  therefore   not  possible   to  provide   a  more  specific   forecast   at  this  time  given   the  volatility   and  uncertainty  of  the  aviation   market.     3  
  • 13.   Dividend   The  Board  remains  committed  to  the  resumption  of  dividend  payments.  As  previously  disclosed  to  the  market,  the   quantum   and  timing  of  this  will  depend  on  actual  and  forecast   trading  results,  market  conditions,   the  maintenance  of   an  investment  grade   credit   rating   and  the  level  of  capital   expenditure  commitments.     In    the    first    half    of    financial     year    2011,    the    operating     performance     of    all    Qantas    businesses     improved   significantly  and  the  Board  is   confident  in  the  outlook  for  the  company.  However,  significant  capital  investment  is   being  undertaken,  reflecting   a  fleet  renewal   to  bolster  the  foundations  for  future  growth.   Considering  this   investment   program   alongside   the   preference   to   rely   on   internally   generated   capital   and   debt   funding   for   this   investment,  the  Board   believes  it  is  prudent   not  to  pay  a  dividend  at  this  time.     Future   dividend  payments  will  be  assessed  against   ongoing   earnings  performance  and  capital   requirements.     4  
  • 14.   APPENDIX     Review  of  Operations  (Extracted  from   Appendix  4D)     Highlights  of  the  half-­‐year  result   include:       Underlying  Profit  Before  Tax  up  56  per  cent  and  operating   cash  flows  up  by  54  per  cent       Strong  growth  across  all  operating  segments       Record  results  for  Jetstar  and  Qantas  Frequent  Flyer       Result  achieved   despite  financial  impact  of  A380  disruptions    Strong  revenue  growth  of  10  per  cent  achieved  through  expansion  of  capacity  and  continued  improvement  in   yield     Underlying  PBT  Result   Up  56  Per   Cent     The  Qantas   Group   reported  an  Underlying  PBT  of  $417   million   for  the  half-­‐year  ended   31  December  2010,   an   increase  of  56  per  cent  on  the  prior  corresponding  period   of  $267   million.     This  result  was  achieved  while  overcoming   significant  operational   challenges   during  the  period  including   disruptions   to  the  A380  network  from  November.   No  financial  settlement   from  Rolls-­‐Royce   has  been  reflected  in   the  results.     Segment  Performance  Summary     $M   December   December   $  Change   %  Change   2010   2009   Qantas   165   60   105   175   Jetstar   143   121                                                22                                      18   Qantas   Frequent  Flyer   189   157                                        32                                      20   Qantas   Freight   41   17                                        24   141   Jetset   Travelworld  Group   3                                              5                                        (2)   (40)   Corporate/Unallocated   (94)   (67)   (27)                                        40   Eliminations   5   14                                        (9)   (64)   Underlying  EBIT   452   307   145                                        47   Underlying  net  finance   costs   (35)   (40)                                            5   (13)   Underlying  PBT   417   267   150                                        56     Strong   Growth   in  all  Operating  Segments     All  operating   segments   have  improved   contributions   to  Underlying   PBT,  delivering  strong  growth  compared   to  the   prior   corresponding   period.   Qantas   and   Qantas   Freight   achieved   growth   in   excess   of   100   percent.   Both  Jetstar   and  Qantas   Frequent  Flyer   delivered  record   half-­‐year  results.     Capacity   and  Yield   Recovery     Despite    the    challenges     presented     during    the    period,    the    Group    achieved     strong    revenue     growth.        Total   revenue     for    the    half-­‐year     increased     10    per    cent    from    $6,909    million    to    $7,591    million.    Average     yields,   excluding   foreign  exchange   (FX)  movements,  increased   by  7  per  cent  reflecting   the  continued   improvement  in   premium   business   following   the   Global   Financial   Crisis.     Capacity   increased   7  per  cent   following   the   addition  of   22  aircraft   to  the  Group   fleet  between  31  December  2009   and  31  December  2010.     The  Group’s  revenue  performance  has  been  supported  by   maintaining  the  Group’s  target  of   65   per  cent  share  of  the   domestic   Australian   market,  industry   leading  on  time  performance,  and  continued   efforts  to  improve   and  ensure   customer   safety   and   satisfaction.   Qantas   Frequent   Flyer’s   record   result   has   been   built   on   continuing  robust   growth   in  members  and  program  affiliates.     5  
  • 15.   Expenses   for  the  half-­‐year   were  $7,227  million,  an  increase  of  7  per  cent  from  the  prior  corresponding   period  of   $6,766   million.   Cost   increases   were   in   line   with   the   Group’s   capacity   growth   of   7   per   cent.     However   fuel  costs   increased   by  10  per  cent,  impacted   by  higher  average   fuel  prices  in  the  current  period  compared   to  the  prior   corresponding  period.     The   Rolls-­‐Royce   A380   engine   disruptions   and   associated   loss   of   capacity   unfavourably   affected   unit   cost   in  the     first    half.    After    allowing     for    the    effects    of    A380    disruptions     and    reduced     average     sector    length    the   Comparable  Net  Underlying  Unit  Cost  performance  is  favourable  by  1  per  cent.     Operating  Statistics       %     Available Seat Kilometres   Revenue Passenger Kilometres   Passenger   Seat     Yield (Excluding   Net Underlying Unit   Comparable Net Underlying Unit       1  ASK  –  total  number  of   seats  available  for   passengers,   multiplied  by   the   number  of   kilometres   flown   2  RPK  –  total  number  of   paying  passengers   carried,  multiplied  by  the   number  of   kilometres   flown   3   Net   Underlying   Unit   Cost   –   Underlying   PBT   less   Passenger   Revenue,   fuel   and   Frequent   Flyer   change   in   accounting   estimate  per   ASK   4  Comparable   Net   Underlying   Unit   Cost–   Net   Underlying   Unit   Cost   adjusted   for   the   impact   of   A380   disruptions   and   reduced   average  sector   length     Capital   Expenditure  Supported  by  Strong   Balance  Sheet   and  Operating  Cash   Flows     Operating  cash  flows  grew  to  $743  million,  an  increase  of  54  per  cent  on  the  prior  corresponding   period  result  of   $483   million,   in  line  with  the  growth   in  earnings.     Qantas   Group  cash  was  $3,337  million  at  31  December  2010,  a  decrease   of  $367  million  from  30  June  2010  resulting   from   aircraft   purchases   partially   funded   from   cash   reserves   and   the   deconsolidation   of   cash   held   in  Jetset   Travelworld  Group.     $M   December   December   $  Change   %  Change   2010   2009   Cash   at  Beginning   3,704   3,617   87   2   Operating  Cash   Flow   743   483   260   54   Investing  Cash   Flow   (1,076)   (947)   (129)   14   Financing  Cash   Flow   (20)   345   (365)   (106)   Effect   of  Foreign   Exchange  on  Cash   (14)   -­‐   (14)   -­‐   Cash   at  Half-­‐Year  End   3,337   3,498   (161)   (5)     Qantas     has    retained     a   strong    balance     sheet    and    a    secure    capital    position     while    supporting     substantial   ongoing   investment  in  the  Group’s   portfolio   of  businesses.     The  Group  invested   $1  billion  in  additional   property,   plant  and  equipment   during  the  period.  This  includes   the   purchase   of  six  aircraft,   progress   payments   on  a  significant   pipeline   of  future   deliveries,   and  the  introduction  of   Next  Generation  Check-­‐In  and  other   product   investments.     A  conservative  approach   to  capital  management  and  significant   growth  in  Operating   Cash  Flows  provide  ongoing   flexibility   to  manage   medium  term  capital  expenditure  and  funding  requirements  while  preserving  an  investment   grade   credit  rating.     As  at  31  December  2010,   the  Group’s   gearing   ratio  is  52  per  cent.   6  
  • 16.     $M   December   June   $  Change   %  Change   2010   2010   Net  Debt1   2,558   2,209   349            16   Net  Debt  Including  Off  Balance  Sheet   Debt2   6,605   6,170   435              7   Equity   (Excluding  Hedge   Reserves)   6,041   5,896   145              2   Gearing   Ratio3   52:48   51:49   1  Includes  fair   value  of   hedges  related  to   debt  and   aircraft  security  deposits   2     Includes     non-­‐cancellable     operating     leases,     excluding     hedge     reserves.     Non-­‐cancellable     operating     leases     are     a     representation   assuming   assets  are   owned  and  debt  funded  and  is  not   consistent   with   the   disclosure   requirements   of   AASB117:   Leases   3  Gearing  Ratio  is  Net   Debt  to   Net   Debt  and  Equity  (including  off   balance  sheet  debt  from  operating  leases  excluding  hedge  reserves)     Fleet   The  Group  remains   committed  to  a  fleet  strategy   designed   to  provide   for  long  term  fleet  renewal,   simplification  and   growth.     Qantas  continues  to   have  one   of   the   world’s  largest  aircraft  order  books,  with  173   new  aircraft  to  be   delivered  by  FY18.     These   include   13   more   A380   flagship   aircraft   for   Qantas,   and   50   B787   Dreamliners,   with   the   first   to   be   delivered   to   Jetstar   in   last   quarter   2012.       At   31   December   2010,   the   Qantas   Group   fleet   comprised   266   aircraft.     During   the  half  year,   the  Group   entered   13  new  aircraft   (6  purchased  and  7  leased)   into  service:       Qantas   –  1  A380,   1  A330-­‐200       Jetstar,   including  Jetstar   Asia  –  10  A320-­‐200s,  1  A330-­‐200     The  Group  retired  no  aircraft   during  the  half  year  but  did  return  one  leased  B747-­‐400.   Three  aircraft  are  scheduled   for  retirement  during   the  second   half  of  the  year.     Product  and  Service   Across   the  Group,   investment  in  customer  product,  service,   training   and  innovation  remains   a  core  focus.     Key  developments  in  the  half-­‐year   for  Qantas  included   the  progressive  roll-­‐out  of  the  faster,  smarter  domestic  Next   Generation  Check-­‐in   –  now  available   in  Perth,  Sydney   and  Melbourne.  Planning   also  continues   for  the  international   fleet  reconfiguration  program   that  will  commence  later  this  year.  It  will  see  nine  B747-­‐400s  upgraded   to  A380   product  standards   and  the  A380  fleet  reconfigured  over  time  to  meet  forecast   changes  in  market   demand.     While   focused   on  its  low   fare   leadership,   Jetstar   also   continued   its  investment   in  innovation,   including   in  the   area  of  airport   self-­‐service  and  the  introduction  of  iPads   for  inflight   entertainment  use.     Qantas     December   December   $  Change   %  Change   2010   2009   Total   Revenue   $M   5,706   5,295   411                                                8   Underlying  EBIT   $M   165                                          60   105   175   Seat  Factor   %   82.4   83.1     (0.7)pts     Qantas   achieved   an   Underlying   EBIT   of   $165   million   for   the   half-­‐year.   The   result   is   175   per   cent   above   the  prior   corresponding  period,   driven   by  a  $411   million,  or  8  per  cent,   increase  in  total  revenue.     Qantas   improved   yield  by  9  per  cent,  and  increased   capacity   by  3.3  per  cent  demonstrating  a  strong  revenue   recovery  across  both  international   and  domestic  business.     The  result  was  achieved  despite  the  significant   operational   and  financial  challenges   of  the  A380  disruptions   and  northern  hemisphere   snow  storms  during  the   period.     QantasLink   continued   to  deliver   a  strong   contribution   to  the  Qantas   Airlines   result   with  capacity   growing   10.6   per  cent.     QantasLink  has  also  added   fly-­‐in-­‐fly-­‐out  charter   capability  with  the  acquisition  of  Network  Aviation.   7  
  • 17.   Looking   ahead,   Qantas   is   expecting   to   grow   its   domestic   and   international   capacity,   adding   4.5   per   cent   for   domestic   (including    QantasLink),    and   4.3   per   cent   in   international    capacity   during   the   second   half.       This   includes   the  return   of  the  A380   fleet  to  full  program  by  March   2011.     QFuture   QFuture   is   the   key   business   change   program   within   Qantas,   designed   to   position   the   airline   for   profitable   growth.   It   involves   transformational   change   across   the   airline,   with   total   benefits   of   $1.5   billion   targeted   over   the  3  years   FY10   to  FY12   to  underpin  unit  cost  reduction  and  margin   improvement.     For  the  half-­‐year,   benefits   of  $173  million  have  been  achieved   (including   IT).  The  majority   of  the  benefits   were   contributed   by   the   Commercial,   Customer   &   Marketing   and   Engineering   divisions   of   the   Qantas   segment.   Qantas  is  also  on  track  to  achieve   the  FY11  target  of  $500  million  and  the  $1.5  billion  in  benefits   over  three  years.     Jetstar     December   December   $  Change   %  Change   2010   2009   Total   Revenue   $M   1,346   1,131                            215                          19   Underlying  EBIT   $M   143   121                                  22                          18   Seat  Factor   %   79.6   80.2     (0.6)pts     Jetstar   achieved   a   record   result   for   the   period,   with   an   Underlying   EBIT   of   $143   million,   an   18   per   cent   increase  on  the  prior  corresponding  period.     Jetstar   increased  domestic  capacity   by  20  per  cent  and  international  capacity  by  18  per  cent,  resulting   in  a  net   capacity   increase   of  19  per  cent  versus  the  prior  corresponding  period.  Yield  improvements  and  a  15  per  cent   increase   in  passenger  numbers   versus   the  prior  corresponding  period  have  resulted   in  an  increase   in  Jetstar’s   revenue  of  $215   million   (19  per  cent).     Jetstar  has  also  achieved   continuing   improvements  in  unit  cost.  Unit  cost  (excluding   fuel)  has  fallen  2  per  cent   compared  to  the  previous  corresponding  period.     Jetstar’s   record   result   reflects   its   status   as   one   of   the   fastest   growing   airlines   in   Asia,   the   world’s   largest   aviation   market.   Operations  now  span  two  continents   and  four  countries,   with  379  flights  per  day  and  growing.  This   growth   will  continue   with  the  delivery   of  15  B787s   from  late  2012.     Qantas   Frequent  Flyer       $ %         Total   Underlying   Normalisation   Normalised     1     Normalised   EBIT  is  a  non-­‐statutory   measure  which  restates  redemption   revenue  to   the   fair   value  of   awards  redeemed   (removing  the   impact  of   the   change  in  accounting   estimate)   and  recognises   the   marketing   revenue  when  a  point  is  sold.  This  creates  a  comparable  basis   for   the   presentation   of   results.     Qantas   Frequent   Flyer   achieved   an   Underlying   EBIT   of   $189   million,   which   was   $32   million   higher   than   the   prior  corresponding  period   and  Normalised  EBIT   growth   of  36  per  cent.     Qantas     Frequent     Flyer’s     result    reflects     positive     growth     in    new    members     driven    by    the    development     of   products   and  services  with  key  business   partners.   Membership  has  increased   12  percent  on  the  prior   corresponding  period   to  7.5  million   members. Billings   increased   by   9   per   cent   compared   to   the   prior   corresponding   period,   driven   by   capacity   increases   across   the  flying   businesses  and  additional  revenue  from  new  members.     The   development   of   the   Woolworths   partnership   in   particular   has   contributed   incremental   airline   revenue   as   well  as  growth  in  Woolworths’  billings   as  the  program   matures.   These  outcomes   highlight   the  value  of  Qantas’   portfolio   of  businesses,   and   especially   Qantas   Frequent   Flyer,   in   maximising   the   returns   generated   from   the  core   flying   brands.       8  
  • 18.     Qantas   Freight     December   December   $  Change   %  Change   2010   2009   Total   Revenue   $M   545   494                              51                                        10   Underlying  EBIT   $M                                            41                                            17                              24   141   Load   Factor   %   60.3   59.9     0.4pts     Qantas   Freight’s     Underlying     EBIT     of     $41     million     is     more     than     double     the     $17     million     from     the     prior   corresponding  period.     Qantas   Freight’s   result  reflects   a  recovery   in  economic   activity  from  Global  Financial   Crisis  lows  as  well  as  stronger   volumes   and  yields,  principally   on  key  China/US   routes.  Yield  has  improved   by  12  per  cent  (excluding  foreign   exchange)  due  to  market   recovery  and  higher   fuel  surcharges.     The  domestic   express   freight  market   has  also  improved,  resulting   in  higher  earnings   from  the  joint  venture   businesses  Australian  air  Express  and  Star   Track   Express.     Statutory  Result     $M   December  2010   December  2009   $Change       Non-­‐Recurring  Items   417   267   150   Ineffectiveness  and  Non-­‐designated   Derivatives  relating  to  other  reporting   (50)   (48)   (2)   periods         (45)       (129)       84     Statutory  PBT         322       90       232         Statutory  PBT  has  improved  to  $322   million   from  $90  million.     Statutory     PBT     includes     ineffectiveness     and     non-­‐designated     derivative     losses     relating     to     other     reporting   periods.     Non-­‐recurring  items   included  in  the  half-­‐year  statutory  result   are:     loss  on  disposal  and  other   transaction  costs   relating   to  the  Jetset   Travelworld  Group   merger   of  $29  million     profit   on  the  sale  of  the  DPEX   Group   of  $5  million     provisions  for  freight   regulatory  fines  and  third  party   actions   of  $26  million   9