Alberta's New Climate Policy and Opportunities / Challenges for Harmonization

1. Alberta’s new climate policy
and opportunities/challenges
for harmonization
Stephanie Cairns
June 22, 2016
North American Climate Policy Forum

3. Credit: Amber Bracken/ The Canadian Press
Premier Notley Launches Alberta Climate Plan with leaders from industry,
environmental, and health sectors. November 2015

4. 2007 Specified Gas Emitters
Regulation for Large Final Emitters
Output based
intensity standard
12% reduction in GHG
intensity compared to
historic baseline
Compliance options:
$15/t payment into an
Alberta technology fund/
Alberta offsets/ Alberta
credits
15% 2016
20% 2017
$20/t 2016
$30/t 2017

5. Make climate change
enough that even
Trump would act
‐
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emissions (Mt CO2e)
Alberta Historic and Forecast Emissions
Historic
2014 Trends
Draft 2015 Trends
2014 Emissions Trends
uses 2013 NEB reference
production forecast
2015 Emissions Trends
uses draft 2015 NEB
reference production
forecast
Oilsands 2030

6. •A “carbon competitive” energy
industry in a global context
•Cleaner and less carbon intensive
electricity generation
•More efficient use of energy
across the economy, in buildings,
homes and transportation
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan:
Three main thrusts

7. Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands
22%
Other Oil and
Gas
23%
Electricity
17%
Other Industry,
Manufacturing,
& Construction
9%
Agriculture,
Forestry, &
Waste
9%
Transportation
11%
Buildings and
Houses
9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National
Emissions)
Economy
‐wide
coverage
Carbon levy
extended to
transportation and
fuels
$20/t 2016
$30/t 2017

8. Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands
22%
Other Oil and
Gas
23%
Electricity
17%
Other Industry,
Manufacturing,
& Construction
9%
Agriculture,
Forestry, &
Waste
9%
Transportation
11%
Buildings and
Houses
9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National
Emissions) LFE shift to
output
based
performance
standards
Jan.2018 SGER coverts
to Carbon
Competitiveness
Regulation:
Sector‐specific output
based performance
standards, based on
best quartile of
performance in sector.
Compliance options
unchanged

9. Source: Canada’s Eco‐
Fiscal Commission

10. Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands
22%
Other Oil and
Gas
23%
Electricity
17%
Other Industry,
Manufacturing,
& Construction
9%
Agriculture,
Forestry, &
Waste
9%
Transportation
11%
Buildings and
Houses
9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National
Emissions)
2030 Coal
phase‐out
Negotiated shut
down of ~6 plants
on top of 12 plants
already affected by
federal coal regs &
provincial air regs
2/3 of retired coal
will be replaced with
renewable power,
through a clean
power call
Final generation mix
2/3 natural gas,
1/3 renewables

11. Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands
22%
Other Oil and
Gas
23%
Electricity
17%
Other Industry,
Manufacturing,
& Construction
9%
Agriculture,
Forestry, &
Waste
9%
Transportation
11%
Buildings and
Houses
9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National
Emissions)
100 MT
cap on oil
sands
30 MT headroom
above current
emissions
Implementation still
TBD

12. Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands
22%
Other Oil and
Gas
23%
Electricity
17%
Other Industry,
Manufacturing,
& Construction
9%
Agriculture,
Forestry, &
Waste
9%
Transportation
11%
Buildings and
Houses
9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National
Emissions)
45%
reduction
in CH4
emissions
by 2025
14 MT, cost <$30/t
Eligible for offsets to
2020;
Regulations take
effect post 2020

13. Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands
22%
Other Oil and
Gas
23%
Electricity
17%
Other Industry,
Manufacturing,
& Construction
9%
Agriculture,
Forestry, &
Waste
9%
Transportation
11%
Buildings and
Houses
9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National
Emissions)
Energy
Efficiency
Agency
First concerted
energy efficiency
programming in
province
Stand alone utility
model dictated by
structure of Alberta
electricity market

14. Renewables,
bioenergy,
technology ,
35%
Green
infrastructure
(transit), 23%Energy
efficiency, 7%
ates low
middle
come
seholds,
24%
1% cut small
business tax
rate , 9%
support for
vulnerable
communities,
2%
Use of
Carbon
Levy
revenue:
$9.6 B/
5 years

15. Stephanie Cairns
Director, Sustainable Communities
Sustainable Prosperity
scairns@sustainableprosperity.ca
sustainableprosperity.ca