Climate Smart & Climate Ready Conference Agriculture Track on April 19, 2013 at NYS Grange in Cortland, NY. Prof. Dave Wolfe, Cornell University. Weather or Not: Effects of Changing Weather on Local Agriculture. Farming Success in an Uncertain Climate.

1. Farming Success
in an Uncertain Climate
David W. Wolfe
Cornell University
dww5@cornell.edu
www.climatechange.cornell.edu

2. Rapid Shift in “Plant Hardiness” Zones
Source: www.arborday.org
(maps based on minimum winter temperatures;
prior 15 years of weather station record)
Can farmers adapt to an accelerating
pace of change?

3. NE U.S. winters have warmed 4.4 F since 1970
(more than average annual temperature warming)
Source: C. Wake, University of New Hampshire
1.8 - 3.6
3.6 - 5.4
5.4 - 7.2
7.2 - 9.0
(oF)

4. Apples are blooming
8 days earlier than
they were in the
1960s
Grapes are blooming 6
days earlier
Lilacs are blooming 4
days earlier
[Source: Wolfe DW et al. 2005. Internat J Biometeor 49:303-309.]
National Phenology Network: http://www.usanpn.org
The living world is responding to climate change:
For example, in the Northeastern US….

5. but will also bring with it increased weed, disease, and insect pressure,
damaging summer heat stress, and new challenges for water management
For Farmers of the NE US …
Climate change might allow exploration of new species and varieties,

6. 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 // 75°F
cool mild warm hot
Current NY
growing season °F
Adapted from
G.V.Jones; 2007
2050 Projected (A1)
2080 Projected (A1)
Climate Change and European Wine Grape Variety Options
(based on mean Apr-Oct temperature °F )

7. 2012: Apple blossoms under snow and 30-50% of NYS crop lost
Expect the unexpected:
More frost and freeze damage in a warmer winter world?

8. Warmer winters in NE = more pest pressure
Kudzu
Corn earworm
Flea beetle
Many insects benefit: better overwinter
survival; more generations per season;
northward expansion of range
Invasive weeds benefit

9. Days Below -4 F
(dark orange= potential spread of Kudzu range)
2010-39 2040-69 2070-99
“Business
as usual”
Lower
emissions
Wolfe et al. 2008. Mitgation
Adaptation Strategies Global Change
13:555-575.

10. Ambient CO2 Future CO2
And high CO2 reduces herbicide efficacy
e.g. Ziska et al. Weed Science 2004
(Ziska et al. 2004 Weed Sci 52:584-588; Ziska et al. 1999. Weed Sci 47:608-615.)

11. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DaysGreaterorEqualto90F
Decade
Heat Stress
Number of days ≥ 90°F,
by decade (since 1870s)
Source: A. DeGaetano, NERCC, Cornell University
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Decade
Heavy Rains
Number of days ≥ 2 in. rain,
by decade (since 1870s)
Historical Increase in Extreme Events
in New York (since 1870s)

12. Yet….More Summer Droughts for NE
Despite Possible Small Increases in Annual Rainfall
Projections for 2070-2099,
From Hayhoe et al. 2007. Climate
Dynamics 28:381-407
-Warmer, longer summers
will increase water use by
vegetation (potential
evapotranspiration)
-Summer rainfall not
projected to increase

13. Crop yield and quality Heat stress and livestock
The Risk of Heat Stress, Drought and Heavy Rains:
All Projected to Increase in NY
Projected Milk Production Decline in NE
Wolfe et al. 2008. MITI 13:555-575.

14. SEE: Greene, C.H. December, 2012. The winters
of our discontent. Scientific American.
This could promote both cold
and warm extremes lasting
for weeks at a time.
Ideas like this are being studied
and debated, but are not yet proven
or understood sufficiently to make
clear future predictions.
Expect the unexpected:
Melting arctic sea ice affecting jet stream patterns
and weather variability??

15. Farmer Attitudes About Climate Change
All farmers are concerned about extreme weather events
and uncertainty about the weather
Recent polls indicate the majority of farmers accept
that the climate is changing
All farmers are concerned about uncertain energy costs,
and future energy and climate change policies

16. Recent Midwest Survey Results:
-The majority (66%) of farmers think climate change is occurring;
-Only 4 percent are convinced it is not

17. Adaptation
•New varieties, new crops, change planting dates
•Diversify cropping systems at farm and regional
scales
•Develop new strategies for new pests,
diseases and weeds
•Improve soil resilience to drought and flooding;
expand into new sites less prone to water stress;
new irrigation and drainage systems
•Fruit crop frost protection (site selection,
misting, air circulation)
•Improve cooling capacity of livestock facilities
Farm-level adjustments that build resilience

18. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Farmers will require new climate-based
decision tools for strategic adaptation.
 Is this “normal” bad weather
or climate change??
 Do I invest in a new
drainage system?...
 Or irrigation system?
 Or both?
 And when?

19. Financial Barriers: Equity Issues:
Will small family farms have the capital and
strategic information to adapt?

20. Too much information; misinformation
Informational barriers;
Cognitive barriers

21. Agriculture Adaptation
Beyond the farm:
A role for universities, government agencies, NGOs
•New decision tools to explore costs, risks, benefits, and
strategic timing of adaptation
•Develop new crop and livestock options (e.g. breeding)
•Improved delivery of real-time local weather data
•Enhanced pest monitoring and regional data sharing
•Disaster risk management and better crop insurance
programs
•Financial assistance for adaptation investments
•Land use and climate change policies that integrate
economic, environmental and equity issues

22. Renewable Energy
on the Farm

23. Cow
Power
Anaerobic Digester
Re-coupling animal and crop
production systems
to re-cycle nitrogen, carbon, energy

24. switchgrass
Corn pellets
abandoned field:
goldenrod and weeds
Low Intensity/High Diversity (LIHD)
willow
Biomass Fuel Crops:
recycling carbon
27

25. Tillage, Soil Health, and
Soil Carbon Sequestration
Building soil organic matter (reducing tillage, using cover crops, manure and composts):
 stores carbon in the soil that otherwise would be in the air as CO2
 increases resilience to drought and flooding by improving soil water holding
capacity and drainage

26. Nitrogen (N) Management and Greenhouse Gases
-Synthetic N fertilizers are energy-intensive to
produce
- All N fertilizers (including manure and other
organic sources) give off nitrous oxide
(N2O), a potent greenhouse gas, as they
degrade in soils
- N management is often inefficient
Legume N instead of fertilizer N
A broader view of ‘renewable energy’…
15

27. New approaches to N management:
Linking models with weather forecasts
Cornell’s “Adapt-N” web-based nitrogen
management system
(http://adapt-n.eas.cornell.edu)

28. New Tools for C, N, and GHG
Accounting and Management (USDA project)
Goal:
To provide small- to large-scale farmers with low-cost soil C
assessment and GHG management tools, and provide policymakers
with tools for evaluation of mitigation incentive options across a
range of future climate scenarios.
COMET-Farm web toolStrategic soil C assessment 30

29. • Taking advantage of changing market opportunities
• Strategic decisions regarding capital investments, such as:
– New irrigation and drainage systems
– Livestock facilities with adequate cooling capacity
– Planting appropriate perennial fruit crop varieties
• Anticipating new weed, disease, insect pests
• Avoiding unintended consequences, such as:
– Increased chemical loads to waterways
– Undesirable land use change and degradation
• Promoting policies that support farmer needs for adaptation and
mitigation
• Increasing profits by better energy and GHG management, and
taking advantage of energy policy incentive programs
• Protecting national interests: ag economy, food prices, food
security
Farming Success in a Changing Climate:
Being Prepared Makes Good Business Sense