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SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar
May 2010
Erkki Raasuke, CFO
427 404 393
154 100 91
521 555 559
97
88 81
948 959 952
251
188 172
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Q4 08 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q1 10
Sweden
SEKbn
CEE
Private
Corporate
Significantly improved resilience
• Reduced CEE lending
2
Note: CEE lending as % of equity calculated as net lending to the public divided by balance sheet equity
290%
of equity
209% 191%
Efficient handling of distressed assets
• FR&R units (340 FTEs) operational in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, Russia, and Ukraine
– The whole loan portfolio has been worked through
– Active business plans for distressed exposures
• Ektornet established to minimize losses and protect value
– Long-term investment horizon, high degree of real estate
– Intake forecast: SEK 4bn at YE 2010 and SEK 5-10bn at YE 2012
– Three quarters of intake is expected in the Baltic countries
3
Strengthened liquidity position
• Rights issue in October 09 – real
turning point for access to funding
markets
• Swedbank exits guarantee
programme as per 30 April 2010
• SEK 100bn of long-term debt
issued during Q1, and SEK20bn to
date in Q2
• Average maturity of wholesale
funding* 24 months (14 YE 2008)
• Cumulated net cash flow over 12
months amounts to SEK +158bn
* Debt securities in issue, repo’s with central banks and interbank deposits
4
Outstanding wholesale funding
* Issued with more than 12 months maturity, government fee of 83bp
** Including interbank deposits
*** Issued with less than 12 months maturity, government fee of 50bp
SEKbn, notional value
61
97
116
180
397
28
87
108
174
459
Total short-
term,
guaranteed***
Total short-
term, non-
guaranteed**
Central bank
repos
Total long-
term,
guaranteed*
Total long-
term, non-
guaranteed
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Well capitalised
5
Core Tier 1 capital ratio* YE 09 12.01%
Result +0.09%
RWA reduction +0.16%
Other +0.05%
Core Tier 1 capital ratio* Q1 10 12.31%9.4
9.8 9.9
12.0
12.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10
%
*according to full Basel 2
Core Tier 1 capital ratio*
Improved perceived risk profile but still some way to go
6
Source: Reuters, 5y CDS spreads in EUR
Restructuring units
established
Rights issue
Reduced CEE
exposure
Improved funding
structure
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2009/09/01
2009/09/16
2009/10/01
2009/10/16
2009/10/31
2009/11/15
2009/11/30
2009/12/15
2009/12/30
2010/01/14
2010/01/29
2010/02/13
2010/02/28
2010/03/15
2010/03/30
2010/04/14
2010/04/29
2010/05/14
5y senior CDS
Swedbank
Nordea
Svenska Handelsbanken
SEB
NII – headwinds and temporary effects
7
Q4 2009 4 702
Funding maturity mismatch -208
Trading strategy -145
Wholesale funding cost -121
Baltic Banking, Russia & Ukraine -118
NII and equity hedges -37
Other -50
Q1 2010 4 023
4 702
4 023
163
147 44
73
252
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
NII Q4 09 Retail LCI Baltic
Banking
Russia &
Ukraine
Group
Treasury
and Other
NII Q1 10SEKm
SEKm Q1 10 Q4 09* Q1 09
Retail 32 45 43
Large Corporates & Institutions 441 55 1 332
Baltic Banking 72 88 183
Russia & Ukraine 27 149 10
Group Treasury and Other 75 -114 143
Swedbank Group 647 223 1 711
Stronger net gains
• Trading strategy pressed NII and boosted net gains and losses
• Stable currency rates in Ukraine
• Lower P&L impact from wholesale funding valuation
8
* Excluding capital gain of SEK 39m (sale
of Aktia shares SEK 24m and of Tallinn
Stock Exchange shares SEK 15m)
9
First quarter 2010 results
SEKm Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Change
Net interest income 4 023 4 702 -679
Net commission income 2 282 2 361 -79
Net gains/losses on financial items, fair value 647 223 424
Other income 715 751 19
Non recurring items -55 -55
Total income 7 667 7 982 -315
Staff costs 2 296 2 319 -23
Variable staff costs 79 23 56
Other expenses 2 016 2 370 -354
Non recurring items -412 412
Total expenses 4 391 4 300 91
Profit before impairments 3 276 3 682 -406
Impairment of intangible assets 14 0
Impairment of tangible assets 36 352 -316
Credit impairments 2 210 5 003 -2 793
Operating profit 1 016 -1 673 2 689
Tax expense 469 115 354
Result for the period 547 -1 788 2 335
Profit for the period attributable to: Shareholders of Swedbank AB 536 -1 804 2 340
Asset quality continues to strengthen
• Improved macro
– Stabilised/increasing property prices in CEE
• Swedbank risk profile continue to improve
– Limited flow of new distressed loans
– Increasingly confident about current distressed loans
10
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
EURm
Quarterly change of 60-day past due loans
• Continued stabilisation
11
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia Ukraine
Small increase of impaired loans
• Increased SEK 1.5bn excluding FX effects
12
Impaired loans as
% of gross lending
Ukraine 57%
Russia 20%
Lithuania 17%
Latvia 25%
Estonia 7.6%
LCI 0.3%
Retail 0.2%
9 343
9 736
6 113
4 362 196
10 578
19 921
29 657
35 770
40 132 40 328
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
FY 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10
SEKm
1 625
1 150
5 473
13 370
7 896
2 381
8 432
Q1 10
• Significant improvement
• Sweden still at very low levels
• Small recoveries in Russia and
Ukraine
• Baltic countries
– Positive trend
– Property prices stabilise/increase
13
Asset quality
Development of credit impairments
6 845
6 672
6 121
5 003
2 210
-1 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10
SEKm
Retail LCI Baltic Banking Russia & Ukraine Other
Conclusion
• Significant improvement of asset and liability risk profiles
• Economy gaining momentum although uncertainty is high
• Areas of concern
– Exit strategy central banks
– Fiscal consolidations
• Swedbank’s resilience has vastly improved
14
191%
209%
290% of equity
251
188
172
106
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q4 08 Q4 09 Q1 10
117%
SEKbn
without Estonia
CEE lending
Private Corporate
Exposure towards Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain
SEKm
Bonds 588
Loans (money market/deposits)<90 days 3 217
Loans (committed credit facilities) 93
Derivatives gross (net) (34) 972
Other 27
Total* 4 897
16
*As of 29 April 2010

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SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010

  • 1. SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar May 2010 Erkki Raasuke, CFO
  • 2. 427 404 393 154 100 91 521 555 559 97 88 81 948 959 952 251 188 172 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q1 10 Sweden SEKbn CEE Private Corporate Significantly improved resilience • Reduced CEE lending 2 Note: CEE lending as % of equity calculated as net lending to the public divided by balance sheet equity 290% of equity 209% 191%
  • 3. Efficient handling of distressed assets • FR&R units (340 FTEs) operational in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, and Ukraine – The whole loan portfolio has been worked through – Active business plans for distressed exposures • Ektornet established to minimize losses and protect value – Long-term investment horizon, high degree of real estate – Intake forecast: SEK 4bn at YE 2010 and SEK 5-10bn at YE 2012 – Three quarters of intake is expected in the Baltic countries 3
  • 4. Strengthened liquidity position • Rights issue in October 09 – real turning point for access to funding markets • Swedbank exits guarantee programme as per 30 April 2010 • SEK 100bn of long-term debt issued during Q1, and SEK20bn to date in Q2 • Average maturity of wholesale funding* 24 months (14 YE 2008) • Cumulated net cash flow over 12 months amounts to SEK +158bn * Debt securities in issue, repo’s with central banks and interbank deposits 4 Outstanding wholesale funding * Issued with more than 12 months maturity, government fee of 83bp ** Including interbank deposits *** Issued with less than 12 months maturity, government fee of 50bp SEKbn, notional value 61 97 116 180 397 28 87 108 174 459 Total short- term, guaranteed*** Total short- term, non- guaranteed** Central bank repos Total long- term, guaranteed* Total long- term, non- guaranteed Q1 2010 Q4 2009
  • 5. Well capitalised 5 Core Tier 1 capital ratio* YE 09 12.01% Result +0.09% RWA reduction +0.16% Other +0.05% Core Tier 1 capital ratio* Q1 10 12.31%9.4 9.8 9.9 12.0 12.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 % *according to full Basel 2 Core Tier 1 capital ratio*
  • 6. Improved perceived risk profile but still some way to go 6 Source: Reuters, 5y CDS spreads in EUR Restructuring units established Rights issue Reduced CEE exposure Improved funding structure 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2009/09/01 2009/09/16 2009/10/01 2009/10/16 2009/10/31 2009/11/15 2009/11/30 2009/12/15 2009/12/30 2010/01/14 2010/01/29 2010/02/13 2010/02/28 2010/03/15 2010/03/30 2010/04/14 2010/04/29 2010/05/14 5y senior CDS Swedbank Nordea Svenska Handelsbanken SEB
  • 7. NII – headwinds and temporary effects 7 Q4 2009 4 702 Funding maturity mismatch -208 Trading strategy -145 Wholesale funding cost -121 Baltic Banking, Russia & Ukraine -118 NII and equity hedges -37 Other -50 Q1 2010 4 023 4 702 4 023 163 147 44 73 252 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 NII Q4 09 Retail LCI Baltic Banking Russia & Ukraine Group Treasury and Other NII Q1 10SEKm
  • 8. SEKm Q1 10 Q4 09* Q1 09 Retail 32 45 43 Large Corporates & Institutions 441 55 1 332 Baltic Banking 72 88 183 Russia & Ukraine 27 149 10 Group Treasury and Other 75 -114 143 Swedbank Group 647 223 1 711 Stronger net gains • Trading strategy pressed NII and boosted net gains and losses • Stable currency rates in Ukraine • Lower P&L impact from wholesale funding valuation 8 * Excluding capital gain of SEK 39m (sale of Aktia shares SEK 24m and of Tallinn Stock Exchange shares SEK 15m)
  • 9. 9 First quarter 2010 results SEKm Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Change Net interest income 4 023 4 702 -679 Net commission income 2 282 2 361 -79 Net gains/losses on financial items, fair value 647 223 424 Other income 715 751 19 Non recurring items -55 -55 Total income 7 667 7 982 -315 Staff costs 2 296 2 319 -23 Variable staff costs 79 23 56 Other expenses 2 016 2 370 -354 Non recurring items -412 412 Total expenses 4 391 4 300 91 Profit before impairments 3 276 3 682 -406 Impairment of intangible assets 14 0 Impairment of tangible assets 36 352 -316 Credit impairments 2 210 5 003 -2 793 Operating profit 1 016 -1 673 2 689 Tax expense 469 115 354 Result for the period 547 -1 788 2 335 Profit for the period attributable to: Shareholders of Swedbank AB 536 -1 804 2 340
  • 10. Asset quality continues to strengthen • Improved macro – Stabilised/increasing property prices in CEE • Swedbank risk profile continue to improve – Limited flow of new distressed loans – Increasingly confident about current distressed loans 10
  • 12. Small increase of impaired loans • Increased SEK 1.5bn excluding FX effects 12 Impaired loans as % of gross lending Ukraine 57% Russia 20% Lithuania 17% Latvia 25% Estonia 7.6% LCI 0.3% Retail 0.2% 9 343 9 736 6 113 4 362 196 10 578 19 921 29 657 35 770 40 132 40 328 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000 FY 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 SEKm 1 625 1 150 5 473 13 370 7 896 2 381 8 432 Q1 10
  • 13. • Significant improvement • Sweden still at very low levels • Small recoveries in Russia and Ukraine • Baltic countries – Positive trend – Property prices stabilise/increase 13 Asset quality Development of credit impairments 6 845 6 672 6 121 5 003 2 210 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 SEKm Retail LCI Baltic Banking Russia & Ukraine Other
  • 14. Conclusion • Significant improvement of asset and liability risk profiles • Economy gaining momentum although uncertainty is high • Areas of concern – Exit strategy central banks – Fiscal consolidations • Swedbank’s resilience has vastly improved 14 191% 209% 290% of equity 251 188 172 106 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q1 10 117% SEKbn without Estonia CEE lending Private Corporate
  • 15.
  • 16. Exposure towards Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain SEKm Bonds 588 Loans (money market/deposits)<90 days 3 217 Loans (committed credit facilities) 93 Derivatives gross (net) (34) 972 Other 27 Total* 4 897 16 *As of 29 April 2010