More Related Content Similar to IPv6 Transition (20) More from Swiss IPv6 Council (19) IPv6 Transition1. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1
IPv6 Transition
Alain Fiocco
Sr Director, IPv6 HIP
Mai 13, 2013
2. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2
Content
User
ISP
Device
“A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory)
outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”
Where is the content?
Too much pain &
no gain
Where is the
network?
Do I pay less ?
Any new apps ?
NAT’s are good.
RFC1918 gives me
security, and IPv4
address run-out is my
ISP’s problem.
The network is not ready, users
don’t care and I don’t want to
risk a poor end-user experience
today for potential gains
tomorrow
Enterprise
3. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 3
RIPE ARIN AFRINICLACNIC
IANA
Mean while … IPv4 run-out is very real
http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/
APNIC
Last /8 policy
4. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4
CGN
IPv4
Performance ? Resilience ? End User Experience ?
Troubleshooting ? Security ? Location ?
User Logging/data retention vs too much information ?
Private
IPv4
Session States
{SIP@,DIP@,Sp,Dp}
5. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
Internet&Home&2&
Alex" Max" Alain"home"office" VoD/TV Replay platforms:
• Canalplus : 70 sessions
• Pluzz.fr: 95 sessions
• BBC : 45 sessions
• CNN: 50
Portals/Social
• Facebook: 40 sessions
• Yahoo: 110 sessions
• Bing: 30
• G+: 30
• Wikipedia: 50
• Twitter : 20
Peer to Peer:
• BitTorent: >700
6. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 6
Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources
20 NAT Sessions15 NAT Sessions10 NAT Sessions30 NAT Sessions times millions of users
7. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 7
2011 2013 2015
CGN Only
2011 2013 2015
6rd + CGN
May, 2012 IDC Study – “The Business Case for Delivering IPv6 Service Now“
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns1017/idc_ipv6_economics.pdf
8. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 8
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
X 2 over 8 months. Accelerating with Smartphone penetration
=> More sophisticated apps => more tcp sessions + keepalive
9. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 9
2013 2014 2015 2016
IPv4 + NAT44
IPv6 + IPv4 + NAT44
IPv6 + NAT64
March 2013, IDC Study - “The Business Case for IPv6 in Mobile Networks”
http://goo.gl/J9lZF
10. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 10
CGN
IPv4
IPv6
AAAA
A
IPv6 for growth
IPv4 for legacy (with CGN == a necessary Evil)
DNS
11. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11
Users Content
Cloud
CDN
The
NetworkAT&T
Verizon Mobile
Comcast
TWC
Free
RCS&RDS
XS4ALL
KDDI
Softbank
Many to come in 2013
Google
Facebook
Yahoo
Bing
Wikipedia
Netflix
Amazon
1000’s Enterprises
Public Agencies
Amazon
Rackspace
OVH
Akamai
Limelight
http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants
> 1.3%
> 80%
>40%
12. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12
Huge impact on B2C in China and B2B for Rest of the world
http://www.telecomasia.net/content/chinese-telcos-embark-ipv6-adoption?src=popular
The three largest SP in
China:
• Will have 3M subs each by
End 2013
• 45% wireline penetration
(25M homes) by End 2015
• All mobile switch to IPv6 by
End 2015 !
13. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 13
Huge impact on B2C in India and B2B for Rest of the world
14. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 14
• Consumer Protection and Information
• Business information and Education
Impact on B2C and B2B
• Guarantee fair access and fair competition
• Security
• Legal obligation
• Privacy vs Law Enforcement
• Create incentive for IPv6 adoption
15. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15
• Restore Internet end-to-end model:
All Broadband Internet subscriber should have at
least ONE Globally Routable Network Address
• Transparency – Consumer education
• User getting their IPv4 connectivity behind a CGN should be informed
• ISP should publish their IPv4 address sharing policy
• Performance Measurement must include CGN impact
• Users connected solely behind a CGN should be able to Opt-out
• IPv6 rollout out should be encouraged:
• Display IPv6 coverage, Similar to: http://map.geo.admin.ch/?topic=nga
16. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16
6lab.cisco.com/stats
Jim Barksdale,
former Netscape CEO
Based on data from RIR, routeviews, DNS roots, Alexa, Google, ITU and APnic
17. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17
IPv4 transit AS’s: 8645 IPv6 transit AS’s: 1501*
IPv6 enabled AS’s: 3249
Concentrated in TOP 300
(75% of AS’s are IPv6 transit)
22% CAGR
18. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 18
IPv6 transit – IPv6 enabled
SE: 88% - 93%
NO: 85%- 95%
NL: 82% - 92%
CH: 79% - 91%
DE: 74% – 90%
GB: 70% – 86%
FR: 66% - 82%
USA: 56% - 69%
Source: routeview
19. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 19
1. Test AAAA + httpget over IPv6 to top 500 Web sites for 125 countries (per alexa.com)
and/or IPv6 shadow test domain (ex: iPv6.domain.com , www6.domain.com.…etc…)
2. Based on their respective rank, apply the corresponding % of traffic they represent
(Pareto function above)
3. Sum this up => estimated available IPv6 content for 125 countries
+ =>
alexa.com
20. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 20
21. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 21
Now Doubling Every 9 months
John outlines Cisco’s
commitment to IPv6
“World IPv6 Day”
June, 2011
“World IPv6 Launch”
June, 2012
Cisco Live
June, 2013
10+ Years of preparation and trial
Industry bands together
to move to mainstream
22. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 22
• Romania (9%) and France
(6%) have captured low
hanging fruits and are now,
growing steady.
• Germany is adding
12k DSL user/day
• Switzerland > 3%
• more Countries over 1% :
Czech Republic, Belgium,
Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg
Size of the square = estimated nb of IPv6 users
Color = Percentage of IPv6 subs vs total nb of users
23. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 23
• 3% ~ 200k users
Swisscom (6rd)
BREAKING NEWS 400k users have been added over the WE !
That should make Switzerland the first country to reach 10%
24. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 24
• 3.9 % ~ 3.8 M users
KDDI (FTTH, Dual-Stack)
Softbank (DSL+FTTH, 6rd)
• NTT IPv6 is walled-garden
(don’t show up here)
25. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 25
• 5.6% ~ 2.8 M users
Free: 6rd
SFR: Dual-stack o PPPoE
26. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 26
• 2.7% ~ 2M users
D-Telekom (Dual-Stack o PPPoE)
KDG (DOCSIS IPv6 only + DS Lite)
0.2%, 8 months ago
+ 12k users/night
27. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 27
2.5 % => over 6 M users
0.6% 12 months ago
28. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 28
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17
29%
11%
October
2011
January
2012
April
2012
July
2012
October
2012
January
2013
Source: Google Source: Google
10%
4%
October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013
www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements
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30%
15%
5%
Verizon Wireless IPv6 vs. IPv4 Actual User Activity
Doubling or Tripling every 7 months
7 months
7 months
30. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 30
3 years: 15 – 25 %
50% point in 5 years
(Logistic S-Curve
Model)
* Based on past data. Does not include effect of new IPv6-only Internet of
Things Architectures, Smartgrid, IPv4 run-out outside of Asia and the EU, etc.
31. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 31
IPv6
End2End Restored
Unlimited Connectivity
Global Reach
Cloud/MSDC
• Scale
• Virtualization
• Automation
• Simplification
Mobile Internet
• Scale: 10 Billions
• 4G-LTE / VoLTE
• Simplification
• Mobile networks
Internet of Things
• Scale: 50 Billions
• Automation-Self Networked
• IoT Protocols are IPv6 only
IPv4 Exhaust.
=>
brittle architecture
http://www.cisco.com/go/vni
32. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 32Cisco Confidential© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 32
afiocco@cisco.com