3. Challenge 2: Low skills and high unemployment The recession has been very severe; it is likely to take at least 3-4 years for economic output to recover to 2008 levels…
6. Net Public Sector Job Creation 1998 - 2008 Source: TWF & Annual Business Inquiry – Workplace Analysis
7. Knowledge economy and the 1980s recession and recovery Total employment, EU KLEMS database definition 1980=100. KE market based is telecoms, high tech, business, financial, and cultural services; KE public based is education and healthcare 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 index 1980 =100 KE market based KE public based Manufacturing Other Services
8. Knowledge economy and the 1990s recession and recovery Total employment, EU KLEMS database definition 1980=100. KE market based is telecoms, high tech, business, financial, and cultural services; KE public based is education and healthcare 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 index 1990=100 KE market based KE public based Manufacturing Other Services
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11. The rise and rise of “intangibles” – proof positive of the emergent Knowledge Economy Intangibles investment share 1970-2004 Business investment in intangibles as a share of market sector value added adjusted to take account of intangibles. HMT October 2007. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 20 21 22 23 24 share of market gross value added
14. The knowledge economy in the Thames Gateway Source: Annual Business Inquiry – Workplace Analysis (2008) % Workforce employed in knowledge industries (2008)
26. Key challenge - fewer opportunities for the unskilled Source: Annual Population Survey (2008) Residents with no qualifications (2008)
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Notas del editor
The first is low economic growth and high unemployment. This recession was very severe, with steeper falls in economic output than even the Great Depression (although it stopped falling before the Great Depression did). Private sector investment and confidence is very low, consumer demand is low and the economy has been significantly damaged. Even without a possible ‘double-dip’, it is likely to take 3-4 years for the economy to recover to 2008 levels, with all the knock-on impacts on businesses, jobs, revenues for the public sector etc.
The recession as a whole affected some places more than others. The places affected the most have been those with the lowest levels of skills, those with the highest levels of employment in manufacturing, and those with financial services employment (outside London and the SE). You can see the cluster around the Thames Gateway, with high changes in the claimant rate there – unsurprising given the skills profile.
…And the 1990s. And it looks set to drive economic recovery in the future too.
These are the sectors on which the Thames Gateway needs to focus. And it already has some strengths…
Thames Gateway local authorities can benefit from investment in creative industries because of their relevance to a range of national, regional and local policies, as well as their potential to impact on economic and social outcomes. Creative industries can contribute to generating jobs, innovation and productivity, as well as to enhancing the quality of life in an area and stimulate new ideas and thinking within communities. Benefits of investment in creative industries can include: • Productivity: over the past decade the creative industries grew at an average of 4 per cent GVA per annum between 1997 and 2006, compared to 3 per cent across the economy as a whole. • Jobs: creative employment grew at twice the national average, increasing on average by 2 per cent per annum between 1997 and 2007, compared to 1 per cent in the economy as a whole over this period. In local areas, investment in creative industry interventions such as festivals can create employment and generate income for the visitor economy. Innovation: innovation can create new markets, productivity growth, spillovers and improved efficiency, and creative industries are identified as an important source of innovation. Creative firms tend to be early adopters of innovation as well as stimulators of innovation in firms that they work with as partners and/ or suppliers. • Regeneration: creative industries have the potential to contribute to physical and social regeneration as well as community cohesion, although projects need to ensure that they are embedded in the local community. • Place-making: creative industries can contribute to improved quality of life for residents and increased attractiveness of places for investment. Both cities (such as Manchester and Glasgow) and more rural areas (such as Cornwall) have benefited in this way. These benefits are not guaranteed, however, and the precise impact of investment in creative industries will vary at a local level based on the characteristics of the local economy. This means that any decisions about investment in creative industries need to consider what the desired outcomes of investment are and to review whether the characteristics of the local area make this outcome likely to be achievable.