This document discusses whether links are still important ranking factors for Google search. It presents arguments on both sides of the issue: - Google says links are still important, but the company has been wrong before about technical details. - Correlation studies between links and rankings are inconclusive, while brand awareness through branded search volume may better explain rankings. - Anecdotal examples show links sometimes have an impact but other times rankings change dramatically without link changes. - The conclusion is that while links may still be needed to reach the top competitive tier, other factors like content, usability, and brand awareness are increasingly important - users and a good experience are Google's priority. SEOs should focus on optimizing for people through

1. Does Google Still Need Links?
Off-Site Ranking Factors for 2017

2. MozCon, September 2016
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3. http://dis.tl/RandTipping
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4. http://dis.tl/RandTipping
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5. PageRank & links were a proxy
for user behaviour
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6. Google doesn’t need a proxy anymore
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7. Google is a browser
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8. Google is an ISP
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9. Google is, of course,
a dominant search engine
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10. & links have become a dirty signal
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11. (Rand says) Build links that might
genuinely drive high quality traffic
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12. Today, taking this further
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13. I’m going to try to present both sides of
this argument
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14. & I have some data to share with you
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15. Don’t tweet this:
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16. Do tweet this:
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17. Over the next 30 minutes:
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18. Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

19. What could replace links?

20. What would you do?
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21. Machine learning

22. @THCapper
http://dis.tl/LarryCTR

23. Brand

24. What if you could find a
way to measure brand?
We all struggle with this.
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25. This is elementary for Google.
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26. All of the above & much more besides

27. @THCapperhttp://dis.tl/CuttsPorn

28. All of these factors correlate
with each other, and links
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29. Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

30. Has it already happened?

31. What does Google say?

32. @THCapper
https://youtu.be/l8VnZCcl9J4

33. @THCapper
“And I can tell you what they are.
It is content. And it’s links pointing to your site.”
Andrey Lipattsev, Search Quality Senior Strategist, Google
https://youtu.be/l8VnZCcl9J4

34. @THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No

35. End of talk?

36. Counterclaim:
Google is routinely wrong technically
correct about how Google works
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37. Classic examples:
● HTTPS migrations pre-2016
● 302s are as good as 301s
● Subdomains are as good as sub-folders
● CCTLDs are as good as .com
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38. @THCapper
http://bit.ly/GaryDA

39. @THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No

40. Correlations

41. Lots of people have found correlations
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42. @THCapper
http://dis.tl/MozCorrelations

43. @THCapper
http://dis.tl/MozCorrelations

44. We all know that correlation
does not imply causation
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45. But causation & coincidence
are not the only possibilities
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46. We’ve all enjoyed this
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http://dis.tl/TylerVigen

47. And this
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http://dis.tl/TylerVigen

48. @THCapper

49. But how do these happen?
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50. Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
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51. Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly, and thus loosely correlated
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52. Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly , and thus loosely correlated
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53. Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly, and thus loosely correlated
3. Reverse causation - it is in fact drownings that cause Nicholas Cage films,
not vice versa
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54. Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly, and thus loosely correlated
3. Reverse causation - it is in fact drownings that cause Nicholas Cage films,
not vice versa
4. Joint causation - both cheese consumption and deaths in bedsheets are
related to increasing affluence (& effluence)
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55. Affluence causes:
● Cheese consumption
● Bedsheet deaths
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56. Brand awareness causes:
● Links
● Rankings?
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57. @THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No
● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive

58. So how does brand awareness compare?
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59. @THCapper
http://dis.tl/MozCorrelations

60. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT

61. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results

62. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone

63. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
Mean Spearman correlations Mean Spearman correlations

64. Quantifying Brand Awareness
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65. Branded Search Volume
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66. @THCapper

67. @THCapper

68. Therefore:
If you care about DA, you should care
about Branded Search Volume
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69. & here’s another interesting thing
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70. For my main data set, both variables are
incredibly statistically significant
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71. @THCapper
DA significance:
99.99999999999999999999999999999999
99999999999999999999999%

72. Log(branded search volume) significance:
99.99999999999999999999999999999999
9999999999999999999999999999999999
9999999999999999999999999999%
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73. For some clients, including both in the
same model knocks DA out of statistical
significance
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74. What does this mean?
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75. Branded Search Volume explains most
of what can be explained with DA
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76. The reverse is not true.
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77. (Yes I will be publishing this data)
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78. @THCapper
Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No
● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive
● My Data: Yes

79. @THCapper
http://dis.tl/MarcusTober

80. Counterclaim: This might have been true
in 1998
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81. Qualitatively, what does
ranking flux look like?

82. Real World Example 1: Flowers

83. @THCapper
Keyword: Flowers
Market: GB-en
Period: May-Dec 2016
Device: Smartphone

84. @THCapper

85. @THCapper
What do we notice?
1. Highly erratic

86. @THCapper

87. @THCapper
What do we notice?
1. Highly erratic
2. Interflora collapsed

88. @THCapper

89. @THCapper
What do we notice?
1. Highly erratic
2. Interflora collapsed
3. DA 33 site overtakes DA 53 site(s)

90. @THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

91. @THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

92. @THCapper
http://dis.tl/2016algo

93. @THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

94. @THCapper
Interflora.co.uk
Flyingflowers.co.uk

95. @THCapper
Interflora.co.uk
Flyingflowers.co.uk
40 domains
40 domains

96. @THCapper
Old-school ranking factors:
1. On-site
2. Algorithm updates
3. Links

97. @THCapper

98. This is not unusual.
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99. Takeaway 1:
Google is continuously iterating
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100. Takeaway 2:
(Users like) Aesthetics & Price
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101. @THCapper

102. @THCapper

103. Real World Example 2: Fleximize.com

104. @THCapper

105. @THCapper

106. @THCapper

107. @THCapper

108. @THCapper
Content piece gains 168 referring domains

109. @THCapper
Content piece gains 22 referring domains

110. @THCapper
Content piece gains 191 referring domains

111. Takeaway:
Links move the needle ...sometimes?
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112. Question: Are links already redundant?
● Google: No
● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive
● My Data: Yes
● Anecdotal: Mixed
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113. So: Are links dead yet?

114. There is quantitative and qualitative
evidence to suggest that links are not
always the most important off-site factor.
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115. Bringing all this together

116. An explanation that is consistent
with all of this
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117. There are now two tiers.
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118. 1. At the competitive, data-rich top end,
links mean increasingly little
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119. @THCapper
1. At the competitive, data-rich top end,
links mean increasingly little
2. But, for now, links might be a big part
of what gets you into that shortlist.

120. Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

121. What should you do next?

122. Win at user testing

123. User testing for SEO: Places to start
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124. User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
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https://youtu.be/At51X-aZ4Y4

125. User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
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126. User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially focusing on initial bounce
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127. User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially focusing on initial bounce
4. All of the above: Mobile first
@THCapper

128. User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially focusing on initial bounce
4. All of the above: Mobile first
None of this is new!
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129. Win at brand awareness & perception

130. (Content marketing, anyone?)
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131. (& this has additional benefits
outside of digital)
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133. Google is trying to think like a person
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134. So cut out the middleman:
Optimize for people
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135. If you want to build links, think:

136. Would Google value this tactic
in a world without links?
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137. Closing thoughts

138. Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?

139. Thank You
@THCapper