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© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
case study Nyanga | “violence is normal”
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
Our enquiry...
into the nature and pathways of violence in Nyanga
was intended to guide our engagement on the ground.
There is no intention of peer reviewable research.
We aim simply for enough insight to make decisions.
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
enquiry insight activation
methodology simplified
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
✓independent video research
✓analyze publicly available (plus some unofficial) data
✓review death inquests by court
✓extensive scan of relevant literature
✓wide range of interviews & workshops
✓numerous field visits
what we did
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
what we found
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
1. Nyanga’s appallingly dangerous but not an outlier
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
Nyanga vs province | ±10 of murders
SAPS crime stats 2003/4-2011/12
!!"# !$"# !$"# !!"# %"# %"# !$"# %"# !$"#
!"
#!!"
$!!!"
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%!!!"
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%!!'" %!!#" %!!(" %!!)" %!!*" %!!+" %!$!" %!$$" %!$%"
&'()*(#+,#-./,0/#
Nyanga
Western Cape
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
murder rate | not an outlier
Institute for Security Studies
!"
#!"
$!!"
$#!"
%!!"
%#!"
&'()*("
+,('-./01,("2+345"
3(6(6-"2+345"
78*8.-0,8"
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=/0>,-..1"?.(/)"
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=/.)-60:)"
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=J-KE-)/"
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O0.()P1"
!"#$"%&'()'*"
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!"
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:(.H'5))-"&),(1"
!"#$%&&$&&&$
'(#)"#$#*+"$$
note data limitations
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
1. Nyanga’s appallingly dangerous but not an outlier
2. Demographics explain local pathways to violence
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
victims are unusually young...
analysis from NIMMS data
!"
#"
$"
%"
&"
'"
("
)"
*"
+"
#!"
$"#("#*"$!"$$"$&"$("$*"%!"%$"%&"%("%*"&!"&$"&&"&("&*"'!"'$"'&"'("'*"(!"($"(&"(("
!"#$"%&'()"*#*+,-(#.""
/01"
/01"2&345&6+(#."#$"-,,"%&'()37"89::"
!"
#!"
$!"
%!"
&!"
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!"#$"%&'(")*+),-$./)0*012'.*%)3"&4""%)'("5)*+)67)
'%8)69:)6;77)
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;<36:2,=><3"
?1712:=<1"
@*12:4,"
;933,*)4=:,4"
A:2B"
C<,2,00,"D3>="
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
because folk are younger in Nyanga
by SAPS precinct, estimated ISS 2010
!"#
$"#
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%$"#
&!"#
&$"#
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'$"#
(!"#
!#)#(# $#*+#%,# &!#*+#'(## '$#*+#-$## -$#.#
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;50#<=>*1=?8:+3#
;*@9+30#
A85890*@8#
B43>C+D30#
E4303?015#
FG4354#
/@=9=77=#
/@=9=77=#H4>*#
age distribution
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
a highly dense and informal area
by SAPS precinct, estimated ISS 2010
Population Density (Per person per hectare)
!"#$"%&
#%$#'& #%$#'&
'($#)&
'*$(#&
""$%+&
!"$+&
,-./0.& 1203& 4./5/6570& 89:;</5& =:>;>??>&@.39& A./3B<C/5& =:>;>??>&
!"
#!"
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&!"
'!"
(!"
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!"#$"%#&'(%#)*'")+,+-."+-""+-$#/01)"*2())+-.'"
!"#!$ %&'()'$ *'+$ *,)*-+.$ ./.'0$
1/120'3/(4$ 1/120'3/($ 5-(+,.&$ '(5$
6$ */2+-*/05$ ,($ ,(7/89'0$ 5:-00,()+$
:,.*,($.*-$;02+.-8<$
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
poor even by local standards
by SAPS precinct, estimated ISS 2010
!"
#!"
$!"
%!"
&!"
'!"
(!"
)!"
*!"
+!"
,-./012"" 341215267" 8419:0;12" <=7=/2-.=" >?4174" @.A/ABBA" @.A/ABBA"C49-"
!"#$"%#&'(%#)*'""
,624"
!"#$"%#&'(%#)*'"+,-%,.",./#0("12#&3""
D!"E"D%*"!!!"
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D"#'%"!!!"E"D"%!)"!!!"
D"%!)"!!!"E"D"(#&"!!!"
F"D"(#&"!!!"
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
1. Nyanga’s appallingly dangerous but not an outlier
2. Demographics explain local pathways to violence
3. Alcohol serious but not unusual; tik under-recorded
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
blood alcohol | Nyanga murder victims
estimated
!"
#"
$!"
$#"
%!"
%#"
&!"
&#"
'!"
'#"
()" !" !*!$"+"!*!#" !*!,"+"!*$" !*$$"+"!*%" -"!*%"
!"#$"%&'()*""
+,-".&*/0&12(#3"
4566"7#0/2809:"+,-".&*/0&12(#3"
!"#$%&'('%)*(%'+',-'.-/0%1/%&*)2(%3)*4%4560%%
as across
South Africa:
most don’t drink
but those that do,
drink a lot
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
Interviews and anecdotal reference
also refer to a significant increase in tik usage in Nyanga
over the past few years, particularly among the youth.
But the murder rate hasn’t shown an increase.
So what is happening?
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
what about
drugs?
1.tik usage typically linked with drug-
habit funding activities such as robbery
& muggings (which are under-reported
but still increasing significantly)
2.unlike blood alcohol, murder victims
are not routinely tested for drugs so
their impact is somewhat unknown
3.unofficial sources suggest the murder
rate in Nyanga is indeed showing an
increase (to be verified at the next
SAPS statistics release)
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
!"
#!!"
$!!"
%!!"
&!!"
'!!!"
'#!!"
'$!!"
'%!!"
'&!!"
#!!!"
#!!()#!!$"#!!$)#!!*"#!!*)#!!%"#!!%)#!!+""#!!+)#!!&"#!!&)#!!,"#!!,)#!'!"#!'!)#!''"#!'')#!'#"
-"./"012034156""
7489":;<90="5.">892?@"
!"#$%"&'()&*%+",-&.%/0(1$(%2342%
!"
#!"
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%!"
&!"
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'&!"
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-"./"012034156"" 7489":;<90="5.">892?@"
!"##$%&'()'*"*+%$,-.$*/(0'1%$2-,$,3'4&(*5('6786'
"0.*/2)*$=;8,9-+$5-1-(5-(.$/($1/0,;-$';3/(>$'8-$
./$?-$.8-'.-5$:,.*$1'83;20'8$;'23/(<<<$
.*-$+*'81$8-;-(.$,(;8-'+-$,($582)@8-0'.-5$;8,9-$
9'.;*-+$'(-;5/.'0$-A,5-(;-$B$8-1/8.+
drug-related crime | as reported
per SAPS
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
what next?
© Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab
A detailed proposal is in development...
focusing on catalysing, communicating and coordinating
diversionary activities aimed at youth and young adults,
potentially including sporting | leisure | entertainment
as well as skills building components.

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Nyanga situational diagnostic

  • 1. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab case study Nyanga | “violence is normal”
  • 2. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab Our enquiry... into the nature and pathways of violence in Nyanga was intended to guide our engagement on the ground. There is no intention of peer reviewable research. We aim simply for enough insight to make decisions.
  • 3. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab enquiry insight activation methodology simplified
  • 4. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab ✓independent video research ✓analyze publicly available (plus some unofficial) data ✓review death inquests by court ✓extensive scan of relevant literature ✓wide range of interviews & workshops ✓numerous field visits what we did
  • 5. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab what we found
  • 6. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab 1. Nyanga’s appallingly dangerous but not an outlier
  • 7. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab Nyanga vs province | ±10 of murders SAPS crime stats 2003/4-2011/12 !!"# !$"# !$"# !!"# %"# %"# !$"# %"# !$"# !" #!!" $!!!" $#!!" %!!!" %#!!" &!!!" %!!'" %!!#" %!!(" %!!)" %!!*" %!!+" %!$!" %!$$" %!$%" &'()*(#+,#-./,0/# Nyanga Western Cape
  • 8. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab murder rate | not an outlier Institute for Security Studies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note data limitations
  • 9. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab 1. Nyanga’s appallingly dangerous but not an outlier 2. Demographics explain local pathways to violence
  • 10. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab victims are unusually young... analysis from NIMMS data !" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" *" +" #!" $"#("#*"$!"$$"$&"$("$*"%!"%$"%&"%("%*"&!"&$"&&"&("&*"'!"'$"'&"'("'*"(!"($"(&"((" !"#$"%&'()"*#*+,-(#."" /01" /01"2&345&6+(#."#$"-,,"%&'()37"89::" !" #!" $!" %!" &!" '!" (")*"+,-./"0)0123.)4" !"#$"%&'(")*+),-$./)0*012'.*%)3"&4""%)'("5)*+)67) '%8)69:)6;77) 563473" 83939:"" ;<36:2,=><3" ?1712:=<1" @*12:4," ;933,*)4=:,4" A:2B" C<,2,00,"D3>="
  • 11. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab because folk are younger in Nyanga by SAPS precinct, estimated ISS 2010 !"# $"# %!"# %$"# &!"# &$"# '!"# '$"# (!"# !#)#(# $#*+#%,# &!#*+#'(## '$#*+#-$## -$#.# /01203*450#+6#/+7894:+3## ;50#<=>*1=?8:+3# ;*@9+30# A85890*@8# B43>C+D30# E4303?015# FG4354# /@=9=77=# /@=9=77=#H4>*# age distribution
  • 12. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab a highly dense and informal area by SAPS precinct, estimated ISS 2010 Population Density (Per person per hectare) !"#$"%& #%$#'& #%$#'& '($#)& '*$(#& ""$%+& !"$+& ,-./0.& 1203& 4./5/6570& 89:;</5& =:>;>??>&@.39& A./3B<C/5& =:>;>??>& !" #!" $!" %!" &!" '!" (!" )!" *+,-.," /0121331"4,56" /0121331"" 76028-9" :;.5" < ,-9-=9>." ?,-5@8A -9" B"8C"08;59082@5" 7>9," !"#$"%#&'(%#)*'")+,+-."+-""+-$#/01)"*2())+-.'" !"#!$ %&'()'$ *'+$ *,)*-+.$ ./.'0$ 1/120'3/(4$ 1/120'3/($ 5-(+,.&$ '(5$ 6$ */2+-*/05$ ,($ ,(7/89'0$ 5:-00,()+$ :,.*,($.*-$;02+.-8<$
  • 13. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab poor even by local standards by SAPS precinct, estimated ISS 2010 !" #!" $!" %!" &!" '!" (!" )!" *!" +!" ,-./012"" 341215267" 8419:0;12" <=7=/2-.=" >?4174" @.A/ABBA" @.A/ABBA"C49-" !"#$"%#&'(%#)*'"" ,624" !"#$"%#&'(%#)*'"+,-%,.",./#0("12#&3"" D!"E"D%*"!!!" D%*"!!!"E"D)("!!!" D)("!!!"E"D"#'%"!!!" D"#'%"!!!"E"D"%!)"!!!" D"%!)"!!!"E"D"(#&"!!!" F"D"(#&"!!!"
  • 14. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab 1. Nyanga’s appallingly dangerous but not an outlier 2. Demographics explain local pathways to violence 3. Alcohol serious but not unusual; tik under-recorded
  • 15. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab blood alcohol | Nyanga murder victims estimated !" #" $!" $#" %!" %#" &!" &#" '!" '#" ()" !" !*!$"+"!*!#" !*!,"+"!*$" !*$$"+"!*%" -"!*%" !"#$"%&'()*"" +,-".&*/0&12(#3" 4566"7#0/2809:"+,-".&*/0&12(#3" !"#$%&'('%)*(%'+',-'.-/0%1/%&*)2(%3)*4%4560%% as across South Africa: most don’t drink but those that do, drink a lot
  • 16. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab Interviews and anecdotal reference also refer to a significant increase in tik usage in Nyanga over the past few years, particularly among the youth. But the murder rate hasn’t shown an increase. So what is happening?
  • 17. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab what about drugs? 1.tik usage typically linked with drug- habit funding activities such as robbery & muggings (which are under-reported but still increasing significantly) 2.unlike blood alcohol, murder victims are not routinely tested for drugs so their impact is somewhat unknown 3.unofficial sources suggest the murder rate in Nyanga is indeed showing an increase (to be verified at the next SAPS statistics release)
  • 18. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab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drug-related crime | as reported per SAPS
  • 19. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab what next?
  • 20. © Cape Town Partnership + The Safety Lab A detailed proposal is in development... focusing on catalysing, communicating and coordinating diversionary activities aimed at youth and young adults, potentially including sporting | leisure | entertainment as well as skills building components.