Thanks for giving us time to speak with you today. I am <<introduce yourself>> and will spend a few minutes diving into the critical role that weather plays in disrupting every fabric of aviation operations. In this session I will share the current state of the Aviation industry and the impacts of weather to its operation, describe our solutions / what makes us different, provide a brief overview of our products and case-studies of happy and successful customers.
So let’s dive into it.
Airlines are continually challenged to increase safety, reduce costs, and improve performance despite WEATHER, which is beyond their control. Without comprehensive weather information, the joint goals of safety and cost reduction can be difficult to achieve. A lack of common situational awareness between pilots, dispatchers, operations, and other key stakeholders can also impact cancellations, delays, and diversions – all of which touches not only costs but overall customer satisfaction and loyalty.
Let’s take a look at some of the metrics
Weather impacts .76% of all flights
69% of all delays are cause by weather
total cost of delays is almost 33 billion dollars
And every min of delay per aircraft costs an airline $75
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~$75/min = average cost of aircraft delay >> If a large airline has 600k flights per year, just 1 min saved per flight saves $45M per year ($75 * 600k flights)
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Sources
- OST_R | BTS | Transtats
- https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2022-07/July%202022%20ATCR.pdf
- All Things On Time Performance January 31, 2020
- FAA APO 100 – Cost of Delays July 8, 2020
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics
- https://simpleflying.com/severe-turbulence-increase-three-times-next-decades/
Does your Pilot change flight levels before turbulence or while they are already in it?
How accurate is your Hurricane track forecast? Should you move your aircraft to another airport?
Have your planes ever flown through Volcanic Ash when the government advisories indicated an all-clear (or vice-versa)?
Did you ever need to divert your planes based on a wider range of weather impact versus delaying in-coming flights?
Are you ready for your next snow-storm? Do you have enough de-icing fluid on-site?
Leading airlines are in need to turn their weather insights into a competitive advantage and cost reductions. They need to take a proactive and preventative approach versus a reactive, just in time approach with better planning and predictions. Areas that airlines need to focus on include:
Optimizing operational costs and reducing inflight injuries by avoiding or preparing for turbulence
Visualizing weather and other flight operations data along routes to optimize flight plans and reduce fuels costs
And Reducing surface delays due to ramp closures and taxi time/runway congestion
Let’s look at how IBM is paving the way to enabling our customers to achieve these goals.
IBM’s Aviation Weather Forecast Solutions offers the most precise, accurate, and personalized weather insights, helping our customers and their business teams make more informed decisions for better outcomes. The offerings are built on the most accurate weather data and the ability to integrate with the customers own data-sets.
The data is enhanced with AI-based modelling and simulation delivering Situational Awareness, Accurate and Timely forecasts and integrated communications.
It includes fit for function desktop products, an iPad application, browser-based command center dashboards and a rich catalog of aviation and weather data APIs to allow for integration into the customers Flight Planning solutions. The products are designed for Pilots, Dispatchers, Airport Ramp Operations, Air Traffic Management, Aircraft Routing and Crew Planning/Tracking personnel.
Ultimately, realizing the Key Benefits include, Safety, Efficiency and Performance.
The Aviation Weather Forecast Solutiuons are a Decision Platform with integrated data and applications for Dispatchers, Pilots and Operations personnel, infused with Weather insights, supported by our Forecast Services and a robust integration framework.
Starting from the bottom:
It is built on a foundation of Public, Proprietary and Client data sets.
Overlaid with Machine Learning based Artificial Intelligence rules engine for modelling and forecasting.
On top of this common infrastructure, we have our built our comprehensive applications.
And, this can be extended by leveraging our expertise with Forecast Services and Integration offerings.
Let’s unpack each of the offerings:
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Our weather solutions help organizations make better business decisions
Operational efficiency, incl. asset utilization
Optimize routing, reduce diversions / delays
Minimize disruption
Mitigate Safety Risks
Support in Major Weather Events
Improved customer satisfaction
Licensed/Proprietary Data
Weather Data (FPGs, TAFs)
TAPS Data
Aircraft Position Reports
Imagery Data
Applying AI & Analytics to Data
Airport Congestion
Runway contamination
Turbulence Avoidance
Surface movement widgets
Embedded GRAF model output
… and other predictive analytics and forecast services
Licensed/Proprietary Data
Weather Data (FPGs, TAFs)
TAPS Data
Aircraft Position Reports
Imagery Data
Client Data
Positions Reports
PIREPs / TAPS
Company NOTAMs
Surface conditions
The majority of flight and schedule disruptions involve weather and attempts to decrease the number of cancellations and delays, the costs associated with these, passenger frustrations and compliance implications are key for customers. As one customer notes, without a way to proactively cancel flights, they could end up with huge numbers of delays throughout the system, resulting in crews, planes, and passengers being out of place and costs in the millions of dollars.
Fusion is a proactive operations management solution that provides early insight into changing flight, airport, and airspace conditions.
Using Fusion, dispatchers, operations personnel, and managers can – monitor flight progress with global flight tracking, improve operational efficiency with traffic flow management tools, and proactively manage operations with intelligent alerting, streamlined workflows.
Fusion has an 80% market share in North American and over 7000 aircrafts rely on Fusion.
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WSI Fusion provides dispatchers and ATC personnel with timely insights into impactful events, empowering decisions and actions to improve safety, efficiency and performance.
WSI Fusion:
Fuses weather, flight, ATC and company data into a unified and actionable operating display.
Provides early insights and alerts to changing conditions that warrant action.
Integrates with enterprise systems to streamline workflow and improve decisions.
Major pain-points for customers are route optimization, planning for On Time Performance, reducing fuel costs and ensuring flight safety. Airlines are confronted with numerous tradeoffs and constraints when planning routes. Customers say that discussions between pilots and dispatchers to agree on routes could be lengthy – especially when they were not all looking at the same information.
Pilotbrief, the pilot weather briefing iPad application allows pilots to visualize aviation weather, airspace notifications, and flight plans in one interactive workspace.
Using the Vertical Profile tool within Pilotbrief Optima, pilots can visualize current and forecast weather hazards along a route of flight in a cross-section plot, and pro-actively plan to navigate hazardous weather for crew and passenger safety
Pilotbrief iPad application is used by over 31000 pilots all over the world
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WSI Pilotbrief provides pilots with vital weather and flight release information from preflight to touchdown, improving safety and optimizing decisions.
WSI Pilotbrief:
Offers superior and actionable global weather information.
Enables common situational awareness between dispatch and pilots.
Delivers a proven end-to-end solution for digital flight release and cockpit.
Digital Flight Release (DFR) for Pilotbrief provides paperless weather, briefings, and notifications (like NOTAMs, METARs, TAFs, PIREPs) to help streamline the process of distributing flight information.
Airlines are adapting tablet solutions to streamline their operations, minimize costs, and optimize revenue. While many airlines deploy these solutions to replace paper charts and manuals, critical flight information still remains on paper. Digital Flight Releases change this.
Reducing the number of passenger and crew injuries, maintenance costs, and lost revenue due to turbulence is a key goal for many customers, but, without a way to quickly alert aircraft of turbulence in a given area, this can be difficult. One customer notes that it used to be 45 minutes before a report of turbulence was received and recommunicated to other aircraft, increasing the number of planes that would have also flown through the turbulence before the reports were received. Total Turbulence assists the dispatcher in the responsibility of ensuring the cockpit is advised of latest weather conditions pertinent to the safety of the flight.
It provides timely, flight-specific information of imminent, and/or rapidly-changing conditions, when a few seconds or minutes can mean the difference between securing the cabin and avoiding a passenger or flight attendant injury.
It helps bridge the information gap by providing real-time updates to the cockpit after takeoff when connectivity is limited in flight.
Customers have indicated that usage of Total Turbulence Alerting and taking pro-active action, as resulted in almost 25% reduction of aircraft inspections needed.
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The subjectivity of reported turbulence could also result in aircraft being taken out of service for inspections when the turbulence had not been as severe as reported.
WSI Total Turbulence delivers a proven end-to-end solution for detecting and avoiding turbulence.
WSI Total Turbulence:
Objectively measures turbulence from aircraft in real-time
Offers industry exclusive high-density coverage over key North American and Pacific routes
Delivers precise forecasts of turbulence for the next 24 hours
Delivers actionable turbulence alerts throughout all phases of flight
Some of the key challenges for ground operations include ensuring employee and customer safety and planning for risky weather events. EIS for Aviation dashboards and alerts provide operations personnel with automated weather alerts and real-time dashboards with timely weather information and risk outlooks to make the safe and optimum operational decisions while minimizing delays.
For example, when the potential for lightning exists, airlines must discontinue ramp operations to ensure ground crew safety and comply with safety policies and procedures. The timing and duration of ramp closures can cause flight delays, thus minimizing this time is a key customer goal. Without accurate, granular detail on approaching weather events, the bias was to leave ramps closed longer than needed, erring on the side of caution. Delays could also arise from runway and surface congestion and taxi times. Extended ground delays reduce on-time performance, cause downstream delay propagation, and negatively impact customer satisfaction and brand image.
One customer reacted to weather condition by switching out aircraft to deal with inclement weather versus cancelling the flight altogether thus maintaining their schedules, and another relied on out hyper-local forecasts to determine that the conditions would clear up shortly to allow for a short delay versus a total cancellation.
The Aviation Offerings include services offering leveraging our team of experienced meteorologists and weather SMEs with deep domain expertise in aviation. We have
48 degreed and FAA EWINS qualified meteorologists at locations around the world supporting the embedded meteorologist with 40+ years’ experience serving mission critical airline needs
They rely on advanced forecasting tools developed specifically for aviation operations including Human Over the Loop (HOTL) Operating System and TAF Workflow Manager (TWM)
And access to 178 numerical weather prediction models including our new proprietary global 3km resolution, hourly-updating IBM’s GRAF (Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting ) model
The offerings include Embedded Meteorologists who become and extension of the customers team, customized consultations where we provide, as requested, Event Briefs and a TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) service.
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(Who have been providing in-house weather support to several top domestic airlines for nearly two decades)
(With superior forecast accuracy over the National Weather Service and other private sector weather providers)
Forty-Eight (48) degreed aviation meteorologists
Eight (8) years average aviation forecasting experience
Four (4) global offices
24x7x365 global coverage
FAA EWINS qualified
Proven end-to-end solution
Support 50+ airlines globally
Weather Company has three groups of meteorologistsembedded within various Airline Operations Centers
Fort Worth, Texas U.S. in American Airlines IOC (8 FTE)
Chicago, Illinois, U.S. in United Airlines NOC (9 FTE)New York, New York, U.S. in Jetblue SOC (3 FTE)
Provides dedicated support to these airlines
Includes customized products and services
Strategic and tactical briefing support(ATC, MEL, Airport Ops, Incident/accident investigating)
Owners of each Airline’s Hub airport forecasts
Collaboration between all Forecast Offices is key to our success
Offices back each other up, share information
We offer 3 Aviation Weather Data Packages that clients can embed in their own applications and tools.
Core, Flight Planning, and Enhanced Core include mostly repackaged government-sourced and some value-add products.
And the Premium Enroute package provides our proprietary enroute advisories and forecasts produced by our in-house Aviation Meteorologists as well as model-generated forecasts for turbulence and icing of the airframe and engines.
In addition to the Aviation packages, our customers can also gain access to a variety of weather data feeds to inject a wealth of weather-based insights into their business processes and applications. These include
Proprietary Currents on Demand (COD) and Forecast On Demand (FOD) that empower forecasts and conditions for up to 2.2 billion global points, giving 500-meter resolution, 15 Minute Forecast, 15-Day Hourly Forecast, gridded and polygonal forecast data
Surface and upper-level weather forecasts
Historical observed surface weather
These are
Delivered via IBM Cloud Service REST based APIs (and a JSON format response) and can be requested by airport code, geocode, or postal code
What makes us different?
- From our years as WSI to now IBM & The Weather Company, we have long been committed to delivering value-added weather data, applications, and services to the aviation industry.
- With over 40 years of experience, we now serve more than 150 airlines worldwide operating 50,000 flights per day across a wide range of fleet sizes and missions.
We have been ranked number one in accuracy by a 3-rd party company called Forecast Watch. Forecast Watch which compares the main weather providers out there evaluating the temperature and the precipitation forecast against observations in many locations worldwide.
This slide represents the accuracy metrics for various geographies, North America, Europe and Asia aggregated and then various forecast time windows now up to 9 days forecast.
IBM’s Weather Company is highlighted in dark blue and we are consistently ranked as number one in those geographies and across all forecast windows.
So how do we produce the most accurate forecasts? It starts with data and even more data:
We collect and process 400 terabytes of weather information every day from many different sources including…
Personal Weather Stations, connected cars, consumer cellphones with the weather app, airplanes in-flight, real-time weather observations and governmental agencies.
We then model out the data, using artificial intelligence
Our data sets not only include observations but also weather forecast models – over 170 of them – including IBM/TWC proprietary models as well as numerous models from government sources around the world.
A human forecaster can not process all of this data.
We apply real-time statistical analytics using machine learning to determine the best way to combine the model data.
Next, we turn these rich, precise data sets into valuable insights using IBM’s supercomputing power.
Every day, we generate 45 billion forecasts, for billions of locations, with very low latency.
This intelligent model blend is the core of our Forecast on Demand system which generates most of our 1-15 day forecast content including probability forecasts.
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And we archive many of these data sets so that the historical observations can be offered to our customers.
It goes beyond data at scale, but also about the technology and world class data science that our teams are leveraging. The combination of the weather company, together with IBM, we are innovating and investing into our own state-of-the-art weather model called GRAF - Global High-Resolution Atmosphere Forecast Model.
GRAF is first of its kind in terms of the technology innovation behind what enables us to assimilate traditional and non-traditional data types running on GPU-accelerated servers. It is currently the only High-resolution model with global coverage. For example:
Frequency: Instead of updating ever 6-12 hours, this new model updates every hour
Fine Grain: up to 5 min output versus 1 hour. Old forecasts you might have had a precipitation amount set to occur during the hour, but you wouldn’t know when exactly during that hour the rain for fall. With GRAF, you will know within a 5 min window.
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Why this is the best weather forecast? HOTL/ GRAF etc.
The main pillar of our platform is the data – for those who don’t know, the Weather company has been serving people and businesses for over 40 years. Originally named weather Channel, then acquired WU and in 2015 was adquired by IBM. With this acquisition, IBM became the biggest weather provider in the world. It was also a Perfect marriage that combined TWC Weather Expertise and IBM’s expertise in AI, Machine Learning, cloud services and Big Data analytics. This allowed us to move from ”just weather” to a variety of industry specific solutions
IBM Global High-Resolution Forecasting (IBM GRAF) dramatically improves the short term forecast for much of the globe because of 6 advantages:
Fidelity: This new model takes resolution down from 10-12km which is typical for most global models to 3-kilometer (less than 2 miles) - a 3 fold improvement
Frequency: Instead of updating ever 6-12 hours, this new model updates every hour
Fresh: We are assimilating weather data more rapidly into forecast
Fine Grain: up to 5 min output versus 1 hour. Old forecasts you might have had a precipitation amount set to occur during the hour, but you wouldn’t know when exactly during that hour the rain for fall. With GRAF, you will know within a 5 min window.
Fortified: In addition to traditional data sets, it includes crowdsourced data from airplane sensors, smartphone barometric pressure readings and personal weather stations to overcome the lack of specialized weather equipment in many parts of the world
Forefront: This reflects the latest innovation in weather forecasting in that it uses IBM’s POWER9 and GPU technology as the resulting volume of data and update frequency would be too much for most supercomputers. IBM POWER9 technology is what is behind the U.S. Department of Energy's Summit and Sierra, the world's most powerful supercomputers.
What this all means is that we are dramatically improving the short-term forecast around the globe so that people and businesses can make better decisions
To summarize, From pre-flight to touchdown, each of the teams along the way benefit from more precise, accurate, and customized weather guidance. The Offerings includes:
Fusion - Dispatch & Flight Operations
Pilotbrief - Inflight & Flight Planning
Total Turbulence Alerting - Safety & Hazards
EIS Aviation Dashboards- Ground Operations & Safety
In addition, we offer a rich set of API packages which include:
Weather advisories and alerts from national agencies
Weather imagery (radar, satellite and tropical storm tracks) from IBM AI models and governmental agencies
Data for enroute atmospheric conditions
And expert services, which include:
Aviation Forecast Services
Embedded Meteorologists
Expert services for long-term weather and seasonal forecasting
Let’s now review some customers case-studies who are reaping the benefits of the Aviation Weather Forecast Solutions
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At IBM, We know that if you can forecast the weather, you can forecast the business, make better decisions, and do so further in advance.
In addition, we offer a rich set of API packages which include:
Aviation Core / Standard EIS APIs - Weather advisories and alerts from national agencies
Enhanced Aviation Core - Weather imagery (radar, satellite and tropical storm tracks) from IBM models and governmental agencies
Enroute Package APIs - Weather data for enroute atmospheric conditions from IBM models
And services:
Aviation Forecast Services - Consultation services by IBM FAA certified experts
Embedded Meteorologists - Customer team augmentation with onsite IBM FAA certified experts
Lead Synopticians (LS) Desk - Expert services for long-term weather and seasonal forecasting
Turbulence can turn a smooth journey into a bumpy ride for airlines and their customers. Not only can turbulence cause discomfort and injury for both passengers and flight crews; it also increases drag, which reduces flight speed and fuel efficiency, as well as causing vibrations that can damage the aircraft. To increase passenger comfort and maximize efficiency, Southwest Airlines, one of America’s leading passenger airlines, wanted to help its pilots spot and avoid bad weather and other hazards.
When Southwest Airlines began a journey of digital transformation: it sought to modernize its cockpit by moving from paper-based information—the aircraft operating manuals and navigational charts that pilots refer to when flying an aircraft—to electronically-accessed material. They decided to replace paper reports with a suite of applications running on a mobile device connected to on-board Wi-Fi, known as an Electronic Flight Bag (EFB). They chose Pilotbrief, a live weather and hazard tracking and monitoring application, to run on the EFB—so their pilots can now view live weather data from an iPad mounted in the cockpit.
Since implementing WSI Pilotbrief Optima, Southwest Airlines has seen significant benefits for both its business and its customers. The solution reinforces the safety of the aircraft, passengers and flight crew, enhances passenger comfort, helps to avoid or minimize delays, and increases fuel efficiency.
For passenger airlines like Alitalia, customer experience plays a central role in differentiating the business from rival carriers and protecting customer loyalty in a highly competitive market. Offering a smooth user experience when customers are booking flights and providing a high level of service during check-in are important—but above all, passengers remember their experience during the flight itself. At their most severe, weather conditions can force airlines to ground flights, causing huge disruption to the travel plans of millions of passengers. For example, the ash cloud caused by the eruption of the volcano Eyjafjallajökull (Aya-fyatla-yow-kutl) in Iceland in 2010 caused the cancellation of more than 100,000 flights due to safety concerns.
After an extensive evaluation of different solutions, Alitalia selected WSI Fusion to provide advanced real-time analytics of weather conditions affecting flight paths. Of all the weather systems they looked at, WSI Fusion stood out as by far the superior technical tool. No other solution was tailored to their requirements of the Flight Dispatch team – enabling them to deliver faster, higher quality information to aircrews to ensure a safe, flawless journey for their passengers. With WSI Fusion, they are creating calmer, more stress-free journeys. Their weather data is now more precise than government sources 70 percent of the time, and they can combine the two data sets to form the most accurate possible picture of flying conditions.
Per Alitalia, If they had been using this technology in 2010, they estimate only 30 percent of their fleet would have been grounded by the Eyjafjallajökull (Aya-fyatla-yow-kutl) ash-cloud, rather than the 70 percent that was, in fact, kept on the tarmac. Additionally, the real-time insight into weather data also facilitates their planning of faster, more efficient flight routes—cutting fuel costs and emissions to help Alitalia reduce its carbon footprint. Their work with IBM is helping to drive forward passenger comfort and safety, whilst protecting the environment.
For Alaska Airlines, operating in extreme weather conditions is business as usual. From September to April, its crews in the last frontier must contend with harsh winter weather on an almost daily basis. Decades of experience with Alaskan winters has taught aviation professionals there how to deal with the toughest conditions—but what happens when a storm hits a lower latitude? For their operations in the lower 48, the impact of severe weather is very different because airports aren’t as used to working in these conditions, it’s practically impossible for them to maintain 100 percent throughput when a major snowstorm is bearing down on them.
To enhance its decision-making capabilities, Alaska Airlines deployed integrated solutions for flight planning, tracking and monitoring based on WSI® Fusion. Today, their flight dispatchers and managers can see the positions, routes and fuel levels of their aircraft in near-real time, overlaid with accurate information on weather systems from both public and proprietary sources. Now, they use accurate hour-by-hour forecasts to predict the parts of the day that will be most congested and adapt their schedules to run as many flights as they can.
By taking this action, they help reduce the risk of unexpected delays grounding their crews and passengers. This strategy also makes it easier to position their crews, which reduces the knock-on effect of delays in other parts of their network. In particularly bad storms, these decisions potentially save thousands of their passengers from the misery of flight cancelations.
The solutions also provide better situational awareness, helping dispatchers and flight crews respond to changing conditions in near-real time. As their passenger numbers grow and airports get busier, it’s becoming increasingly important to take action before conditions deteriorate. Their solutions from IBM help them make the proactive, informed decisions they need to keep their passengers moving—even in difficult weather.
Thank you for taking time and appreciating the Aviation Weather Forecast Solutions that empowers and enables our customers and clients with the most accurate weather data to make optimal operation decisions to improve Safety, Efficiency and Performance.
There are plenty of resources available to help you learn more about the IBM Weather Solutions and the IBM Aviation Weather Forecast Solutions. A great way to get started is by visiting the Aviation weather forecast solutions overview web page (https://www.ibm.com/weather/industries/aviation) and clicking the Book a meeting link.
After you complete and submit the form provided (shown on this slide), a member of the IBM Weather Business Solutions team will contact you and show you how the IBM Aviation solutions works. They will also be happy to talk with clients about their weather-related business challenges, as well as describe how IBM Aviation solutions can help.