The document discusses how new technologies are reshaping the future of work. It notes that the economy is shifting from large manufacturing employers to smaller service businesses. This has produced a bifurcation in the labor market, with those without college degrees facing worse job prospects. However, skilled professionals who can do specialized non-routine jobs are poised to be the new middle class. Online marketplaces help match these skilled workers with clients and have grown more popular, though skilled workers still face challenges that policymakers could help address through initiatives like skills training and benefits not tied to employers.

1. Beyond the
Gig Economy
How New Technologies Are
Reshaping the Future of Work | 2016
By Jon Lieber, Chief Economist, Thumbtack
& Lucas Puente, Economic Analyst, Thumbtack

2. The Old Economy
The labor market in the 20th century was based
around large employers and the manufacturing
industry, but that era is gone, thanks to automation
and globalization.

3. The Economy of the Future
Smaller businesses are playing a bigger role than
ever, as more Americans are finding work in the
services economy and technology has made starting
a small business cheaper and easier than ever.

4. The 21st Century’s Economic Challenge
This shift has produced a bifurcation in the labor
market; those without college degrees are far more
likely to face dismal labor market conditions.

5. Divergent Paths in the New Economy

6. The New Path to the Middle Class
Skilled professionals — those with the know-how to do
a specialized, non-routine job in any circumstance —
are the middle class of the future.

7. The Rise of Skilled Pros & Non-Routine Jobs

8. Non-Routine Jobs: The Jobs of the Future
Cognitive Manual
Routine
• Bookkeepers
• Dispatchers
• Customer service reps
• Secretaries
• Travel agents
• Professional drivers
• Machine operators,
• Assemblers
• Warehouse laborers
• Laundry cleaners
Nonroutine
• Photographers
• Architectural drafters
• Nutritionists
• Graphic designers
• Land surveyors
• Plumbers
• Electricians
• Professional chefs
• Dog trainers
• Exterminators

9. Unpacking the “Gig Economy”
Marketplaces provide consumers with specialized
services from skilled professionals. This gives the
service provider a chance to earn flexible income and
their own terms and build a business and career.

10. The Benefits of Skill-Based Marketplaces

11. The Challenges Skills Pros Face

12. Online marketplaces are more than 4 times more cost-
effective than offline marketing in introducing skilled
pros to new customers, their single biggest challenge.
Marketplaces Solve Pros’ Main Concern
Source: Thumbtack survey, June 2015 (5,000 professionals)

13. Where Are Workers Using Marketplaces?
We used Twitter data as a proxy for adoption rates in
different markets, based on the theory that platforms
with more followers on Twitter in a given area likely
have more users and more service providers in that
same area.

14. Marketplaces Are More Widely Adopted

15. How Policymakers Can Help Skilled Pros
1. Invest in developing skills outside of educational institutions.
• Example: the Obama Administrations’s American Apprenticeship
Grants
2. Strengthen the social safety net and move away from employer-
based benefits.
• Example: Affordable Care Act
3. When it comes to taxes, focus on reducing burden of compliance.
• Example: Ohio’s municipal tax reform

16. Conclusion
1. As we finalize a transition to a service-based economy, workers
are presented with new challenges, but also new opportunities.
2. Technology can help workers most by empowering them to
efficiently reach clients seeking their specialized skills, not by
turning them into on-demand commodities.
3. Policymakers should work to help all workers in this new
environment, not just those with traditional employment
arrangements.

17. Authors
Jon Lieber is Thumbtack's Chief
Economist and head of policy research,
studying trends in the labor market,
entrepreneurship, and the small business
economy. He has spent over a decade in
Washington, D.C.,advising policymakers
on economic policy, and currently serves
as a board member for the Center for
American Entrepreneurship, a research
organization dedicated to improving the
environment for startups and
entrepreneurs. He can be reached at
jon.lieber@thumbtack.com.
Lucas Puente is the Economic Analyst at
Thumbtack, where he studies
Thumbtack's marketplace dynamics and
the policy challenges facing small service
businesses. He has a master's degree and
Ph.D. from Stanford University and is a
graduate of the University of Georgia.
He can be reached at
lucas.puente@thumbtack.com.