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Time to pay?
paywalls: mirage or oasis?


frederic filloux   copenhagen, february 4th, 2010
why now ?
after all...



 ...we were all advocate of the free model

 it had its virtue:
    universal access / visibilility

    readers participation

    incoming linking / Google-friendliness
(Alan Rusbridger, Guardian's editor) 

"If you erect a
universal pay wall
around your content
then it follows you are
turning away from a
world of openly shared
content."

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 ...
(Alan Rusbridger, Guardian's editor)

" (...) Editorially it
is about the most
fundamental statement
anyone could make about
how newspapers see
themselves in relation
to the newly-shaped
world."
why now ?
a chain reaction
1.
the adverstising
     crash
the failure of the ad model

   CPM are lower then ever

    click-through rate never took off

    endless inventories are pushing
    prices further down with ad networks
    acting as bottom feeders

    Google is sucking up revenues

   design flaw: web publishers are
    caught in some inherent contradiction
the failure of the ad model

   CPM are lower then ever

    click-through rate never took off

    endless inventories pushes prices
    further down with ad networks acting
    as bottom feeders

   design flaw web publishers are
    caught in some inherent contradiction
the failure of the ad model
  CPM are lower then ever

  click-through rate never took off

  endless inventories pushes prices
   further down with ad networks acting
   as bottom feeders

  design flaw web publishers are
   caught in some inherent contradiction
three main causes
 1.  a non credible audience mesurement
     Nielsen, ComScore, Quantcast are just
     disasters

 2.  a lack of creativity from the advertising
     community with very little innovation in ad
     packages

 3.  an individualistic approach by publishers
     unable to cooperate left plenty of room for bad
     players. Among them...
...the classifieds pure players
(Francis Morel, CEO of Le Figaro) 

"In the early nineties,
the newspaper’s revenue
from classifieds was
about €150m per year.
Now, it is €12m..."
the classifieds consumption
(an example on the French market)

                            Le Monde :
                          16 mn per viewer
                    and 19 pageviews per month

                     leboncoin.fr (free classifieds):
                        1hr 02mn per viewer
                          177 pageviews /mo

                       (at the same time, facebook :
                        > 4hrs 31mn and > 530 PV)
                                       (source : NNR France Dec 09)
2.
the Facebook/
Google sucking
     effect
going up:
  Global time spent on social networks

     in Dec. 09:   +82%
  +200% on the US market alone
  Time spent on Google in the US:
     +43%
    money is shifting:
     between Aug. 2008 and Aug. 2009:
       amount invested online on the US

       market :   -2%
       share invested on social networks:

       +119%         source: NNR
...going down:

  time spent on
   newspapers web sites :

  Nov. 2006:   42 min
   per mo. and per visit

  Nov. 2009:   32 mn
3.
 consequence:
the collapse of
   the Arpu
a massive revenue depletion
on print but also online
 since 2005, US newspapers have lost 57% of
 their print advertising revenue

 online advertising, lost 26% since the peak of Q4
 2007

 over the last 4 years, each gain of
 one dollar on digital translated into a loss of
 55 dollars on print
(Clay Shirky, Professor NYU



"The old models are
breaking faster than
the new models can
be put into place..."
Filloux Filloux
revenue per reader




$612 per year per buyer
$200 per year per reader
                           $10-12 per year per
                            Unique visitor
revenue per reader




      a web viewer brings
        16-20 times less
       than a print reader
looking at others ARPUs
                         $7-10
                           3$
                          $1.5
                         $0.85
                          $1.5
                $15 (20-30 times less than a
                       mobile carrier)
(Chris Anderson, author of
the bestseller "Free!) 

"..Free is not
enough. It also
has to be matched
with Paid..."
here we are!
time to squezze out
    of the user
    (someway)
two ideas:
 • no audiences are made
    equal
 • the necessity of an hybrid
   approach
fragmented audiences
the monetization

  young audiences:      free is critical
 OK for invasive ads and giving up private data

  ature audiences:
 m
 more reluctance to ads
 but more willingness to pay
the platform
  different device for:
  each type of audience
  each kind of news content:
    breaking news, features, services

  each type of use:
 home, office, commuting
the hybrid approach
choosing its audience
choosing its audience
            

   [principle]:

   "... free for the
   audience I pick, 

   paid-for for the ones
   who choose me..." 

    ‣ geomarketing
    ‣  hronomarketing
     c
    ‣ audience analysis
new model will combine:
  ree and paid-for
 f
  rint and electronic medias
 p
  hree legs:
 t
   dvertising
    a
   ubscription
    s
   ay-per-view (or metered system)
    p
the paid-for option:
5 ways to reverse the free trend

  target the heaviest users
  focus on the type of uses not on
  the old "basic vs.premium" principle
  offer a better user experience

  find a "fricton free" payment system

  iversify the platforms
 d
how much and how many?
            the notion of average is meaningless; for instance:


willingness     $/mo                5              10         15
   to pay
   62%          Italy          $7                       $16

    60%     Norway        $4                 $11

   49%     Australia     $3             $9                    source : BCG




          ‘‘know your 20/80“
thanks!


frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com

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Filloux Filloux

  • 1. Time to pay? paywalls: mirage or oasis? frederic filloux copenhagen, february 4th, 2010
  • 3. after all...  ...we were all advocate of the free model  it had its virtue:   universal access / visibilility   readers participation   incoming linking / Google-friendliness
  • 4. (Alan Rusbridger, Guardian's editor) 
 "If you erect a universal pay wall around your content then it follows you are turning away from a world of openly shared content." ...
  • 5. (Alan Rusbridger, Guardian's editor)
 " (...) Editorially it is about the most fundamental statement anyone could make about how newspapers see themselves in relation to the newly-shaped world."
  • 9. the failure of the ad model  CPM are lower then ever   click-through rate never took off   endless inventories are pushing prices further down with ad networks acting as bottom feeders   Google is sucking up revenues  design flaw: web publishers are caught in some inherent contradiction
  • 10. the failure of the ad model  CPM are lower then ever   click-through rate never took off   endless inventories pushes prices further down with ad networks acting as bottom feeders  design flaw web publishers are caught in some inherent contradiction
  • 11. the failure of the ad model   CPM are lower then ever   click-through rate never took off   endless inventories pushes prices further down with ad networks acting as bottom feeders   design flaw web publishers are caught in some inherent contradiction
  • 12. three main causes 1.  a non credible audience mesurement Nielsen, ComScore, Quantcast are just disasters 2.  a lack of creativity from the advertising community with very little innovation in ad packages 3.  an individualistic approach by publishers unable to cooperate left plenty of room for bad players. Among them...
  • 14. (Francis Morel, CEO of Le Figaro) "In the early nineties, the newspaper’s revenue from classifieds was about €150m per year. Now, it is €12m..."
  • 15. the classifieds consumption (an example on the French market) Le Monde : 16 mn per viewer and 19 pageviews per month leboncoin.fr (free classifieds): 1hr 02mn per viewer 177 pageviews /mo (at the same time, facebook : > 4hrs 31mn and > 530 PV) (source : NNR France Dec 09)
  • 17. going up:   Global time spent on social networks in Dec. 09: +82%   +200% on the US market alone   Time spent on Google in the US: +43%   money is shifting: between Aug. 2008 and Aug. 2009:   amount invested online on the US market : -2%   share invested on social networks: +119% source: NNR
  • 18. ...going down:  time spent on newspapers web sites :  Nov. 2006: 42 min per mo. and per visit  Nov. 2009: 32 mn
  • 20. a massive revenue depletion on print but also online since 2005, US newspapers have lost 57% of their print advertising revenue online advertising, lost 26% since the peak of Q4 2007 over the last 4 years, each gain of one dollar on digital translated into a loss of 55 dollars on print
  • 21. (Clay Shirky, Professor NYU
 "The old models are breaking faster than the new models can be put into place..."
  • 23. revenue per reader $612 per year per buyer $200 per year per reader $10-12 per year per Unique visitor
  • 24. revenue per reader a web viewer brings 16-20 times less than a print reader
  • 25. looking at others ARPUs $7-10 3$ $1.5 $0.85 $1.5 $15 (20-30 times less than a mobile carrier)
  • 26. (Chris Anderson, author of the bestseller "Free!) "..Free is not enough. It also has to be matched with Paid..."
  • 28. time to squezze out of the user (someway)
  • 29. two ideas: • no audiences are made equal • the necessity of an hybrid approach
  • 31. the monetization   young audiences: free is critical OK for invasive ads and giving up private data   ature audiences: m more reluctance to ads but more willingness to pay
  • 32. the platform   different device for:   each type of audience   each kind of news content: breaking news, features, services   each type of use: home, office, commuting
  • 35. choosing its audience 
   [principle]: "... free for the audience I pick, 
 paid-for for the ones who choose me..." ‣ geomarketing ‣  hronomarketing c ‣ audience analysis
  • 36. new model will combine:   ree and paid-for f   rint and electronic medias p   hree legs: t   dvertising a   ubscription s   ay-per-view (or metered system) p
  • 37. the paid-for option: 5 ways to reverse the free trend   target the heaviest users   focus on the type of uses not on the old "basic vs.premium" principle   offer a better user experience   find a "fricton free" payment system   iversify the platforms d
  • 38. how much and how many?   the notion of average is meaningless; for instance: willingness $/mo 5 10 15 to pay 62% Italy $7 $16 60% Norway $4 $11 49% Australia $3 $9 source : BCG ‘‘know your 20/80“