The document discusses scenario planning for tourism in South Lincoln County, Oregon. It explores using scenario planning to develop four plausible futures for the region based on key drivers and their impacts. The group then develops narratives around regional dimensions for each scenario, including social, economic and environmental characteristics from 2012 to 2030. Finally, the document outlines developing an action plan to promote tourism based on the scenario planning outcomes.

1. South Lincoln County
Rural Tourism Studio
David Beurle & Juliet Fox
Future iQ Partners
info@future-iq.com

2. The Future Ahead for tourism
in South Lincoln County

3. Commi ed groups

4. Commi ed groups

7. A tool best used to
embrace an uncertain
future
What is
Explores a range of
Scenario plausible futures
Planning?
Allows for the
consideration of
complex and
interrelated forces

9. Strategic planning optimistic linear projections

10. Develop
Explore Implications
‘Drivers’ Develop Preferred
Trends and for the
Shaping four Future and
Implications South
South plausible action
for tourism Lincoln
Lincoln scenarios planning
industry County
County

11. Importance / Uncertainty matrix
Rate each driver on a 1 – 10 scale
(1=low; 10=high)
Driver Importance Uncertainty

12. Program for the Evening
• Develop detailed narratives for four
plausible scenarios for the future of
South Lincoln County
(based on clusters of key drivers).
• Explore the possible futures before and
the consequences for South Lincoln
County

14. Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers
Ability to leverage our human capacity
Values and lifestyles
Land use planning
Local aspirations
Education
Community collaboration and engagement
Local economic development
Trained workforce
Tourism and economic infrastructure
Transportation infrastructure
Infrastructure
Energy costs
Cost of living
Lodging development
Access to information and communication technology

15. Regional Scenarios based on two
scenario shaping clusters
Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
Lack of critical Well resourced
infrastructures local tourism
to support and economic
viable tourism infrastructures
industry
Fragmented and
disjointed efforts with
conflicting priorities.

16. Scenario name and brief description
Social Characteristics
Economic Characteristics
Environmental Characteristics

17. Scenario Timeline
Social Economic Environmental
2012 2012 2012
2020 2020 2020
2030 2030 2030

18. • Population makeup/
characteristics
Regional • Distribution of
population
dimensions to
consider • Landscape and
visual impacts
• ‘Liveability’ and
(What would quality of life
features
tourism in South
Lincoln County • Skills and
educational profiles
be like in 2030?)
• Industry and
economic profiles

19. Timeline for scenario
formulation
Suggested Scenario Group timeline
6:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)
6:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)
7:15 Small group report back (10m)
7:25 Short scenario name (5m)
7:30 Return to main room ready to present

20. Regional Scenarios based on two
scenario shaping clusters
Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
Lack of critical Well resourced
infrastructures local tourism
to support and economic
viable tourism infrastructures
industry
Fragmented and
disjointed efforts with
conflicting priorities.

21. Resilience and vulnerability of
scenarios
How would we respond under ‘shocks’?
• What would happen to our communities and people?
• What would our economy do?
• Impacts on the environment?
Shocks?
• There is an economic double dip..
• Price of oil jumps dramatically

22. Context Content

23. Ultimate Tourism Action Plan:
• Tourism Planning / Action
• Regional Promotion
• Waldport & individual communities
• Focus areas for tourism development
– Recreational
– Cultural
– Eco-friendly
– Natural resource
– Off season options

24. Tourism Planning / Action
• Planning events – cooperation and collaboration
• Teamwork – working together toward goals
• A plan would help define where limited dollars
should be spent. ..help define roles and illuminate
the ‘big picture”.
• Systemic processes for action – embedded in
daily work.
• As a region – highlighting strengths of each
community to create a regional package
• Tax options – regional infrastructure
improvements

25. Regional Promotion
• Advertising and promotional vacation packages
• Promote as a region – with limited dollars
• Lack of cohesive branding
• Identify strengthen, and better promote our assets
and work together as a broader community for the
greater success of everyone.
• With the values of the region – of preservation and
as a part of the Oregon coast.

27. Scenario A – Isolated
Community / social
Intelligence
• Well educated - Highly skilled
• All out here by ourselves
• No facilities, the restaurants are gone, hotels are gone – and no toilets
• Back to the future scenario – people were camping and hiking here a long time ago
• No one will be living here
• Isolated pockets of money and poverty index will go up
• Have to be a survivalist since no one’s coming to get you
Environmental
• Enviro research would be strong here
• People could see how the environment is being impacted
• Well preserved; not a lot of degradation
• Sometimes we don’t really understand the relations between public
Economy
• Would have guides
• Bush pilots would take people into this isolated, remote area
• Very green facilities with composting toilets
• High number of PhDs

28. Scenario B – Wal-hats, Ya-port, Good for
All
Social
• Sustainable jobs & businesses
• One single Chamber for the entire region – or three working close together
• Health services have been increased; easier to get what you need locally
• Education & training is widely available
• A shared regional vision that everyone agrees to and uses
• We see ourselves entirely responsible and we drive the entire thing.
Economic
• Selling awareness of enjoyment of the resources that are here
• Natural resources have been preserved
• Activities are nature-based and diverse
• Businesses are historically and culturally based
Environmental
• Setting today is preserved; isn’t changed – looks
• USFS is an active partner instead of an agency that just shows up once in a while and sits
on a tower
• Physical connection between Waldport & Yachats – business districts are connected
• We involve and educate the tourist on our local ethic of environmental stewardship

29. Scenario C – Nice place to visit, wouldn’t
want to live there
Social
• A lot of second homes; owners don’t contribute to community
• Aging communities
• Lack of health care; Lack of skilled people
• More hotels/more restaurants – but not one to take care of you
• Will have conflicting priorities – communities are still fighting one another,
• Regional health clinic – nurses are the only ones who will
• More independent and migratory -- every unit will have its own electricity and grow their
own food
Economic / Tourism
• No economies of scale; No one working together
• Opportunities – lots of land, no one to compete with
• Heliports for people to fly in
• Outsiders would own all of the tourism infrastructure ; locals would lose their
entrepreneurial spirit
Environment
• More trails, more opportunities to enjoy the nature since no one is here
• Energy – go back to the Old West, have to shoot the meat off the hoof, warm up your
house through firewood

30. Scenario D – Bring it on
Social
• Loosing population; Aging population
• Absentee owners
• Brain drain; youth are not coming back
• Haves and have nots are separate
• Lack of law enforcement; high crime
• Low paying jobs; Schools go away
• Decision from bottom up goes away; Inflexible; hard to recover from problems
• Loss of critical mass to support services
Environment
• As you lose human capital; decision making moves to the county or higher up
• Hard for locals to make change
• Look at resources who are managed by folks who aren’t here 
• At some point you wish for the tsunami
• More accidents
Tourism economy
• Fragmented or non-existent
• Lack of a skilled workforce; lack of jobs
• Empty buildings
• Islands of prosperity in a sea of poverty