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Systematic reviews of
clinical versus animal studies:
       Parallels and challenges




              Maroeska M. Rovers
                   Acknowledgments:
  Carlijn Hooijmans, Malcolm Macleod, Michael Bracken
My background



โ€ขโ€ฏ Archie Cochrane in 1979: "It is surely a great criticism of our
   profession that we have not organised a critical summary, by
   specialty or subspecialty, adapted periodically, of all relevant
   randomised controlled trialsโ€
โ€ขโ€ฏ 1993: founding of Cochrane Collaboration
โ€ขโ€ฏ Mission: to enable people to make well-informed decisions about
   healthcare
Why so important?
The growth in RCTs


                            35000

                                                                               MEDLINE
                            30000


                            25000
Number of Trials / Year .




                            20000
                                                        Cochrane CCTR
                            15000


                            10000


                             5000
                                                                    Multicentre Trials

                                0
                                1950   1960    1970       1980          1990             2000
                                              Year of Publication
Systematic review in detail



                              Research
                              question

                                                 Extensive
            Structured
                                                 literature
             reporting
                                                   search




                                                     Objective
       Synthesis of
                                                     selection
         results
                                                      process




                  Objective data          Critical
                    extraction           appraisal
How close is Cochraneโ€™s dream?



How many reviews in Cochrane?
3,800 reviews with 6 trials each = 22,800



How many reviews are needed?
A. Trials: Number of RCTs over 500,000
     So 5% included so far
B. Questions: Over 11,000 diseases:
   If 2 treatments each; 22,000 โ€œquestionsโ€
     So 17% of questions
What about animal studies




How many systematic reviews on animal studies?

248 reviews
> 7 million animal studies
โ€œMuch animal research into potential treatments for humans is wasted
because it is poorly conducted and not evaluated in SRsโ€
Potential sources of bias
in animal studies




Bias                Solution
Selection bias      Randomisation
Performance bias    Allocation concealment
Detection bias      Blinded outcome assessment
Attrition bias      ITT/ reporting drop outs
Six interventions compared:
3 similar outcomes
3 discordant results
Quality of the studies included in
the SR




                                     BMJ, 2007
Consequences risk of bias




Macleod et al. Stroke, 2008
Methodological problems




1.โ€ฏ Heterogeneity in animal species and strains used
2.โ€ฏ Different models of inducing illness with varying
    similarity to the human condition
3.โ€ฏ Variation in dosis/intervention schedule
4.โ€ฏ Variability in how animals are selected
5.โ€ฏ Loss to follow-up not reported
6.โ€ฏ Small groups with inadequate power
Methodological problems



7.โ€ฏ Flawed statistical analyses (not taking into account
    confounding, no ITT)
8.โ€ฏ Variety of outcomes (with uncertain relevance to
    human condition)
9.โ€ฏ Length of follow-up may not correspond to disease
    latency inhumans
10.โ€ฏExternal validity often nog thought of
Other challengesโ€ฆ.
Plos. Med. 2005




Solutions:
โ€ขโ€ฏ Better powered evidence
       ร ๏ƒ Larger studies or low bias meta-analyses
โ€ขโ€ฏ Registrations of studies
And rememberโ€ฆ




 A systematic review does NOT replace a
             good quality study
Future directions




โ€ขโ€ฏ Methodology
   โ€ขโ€ฏ Search strategies
   โ€ขโ€ฏ Analyses
   โ€ขโ€ฏ Individual animal data?
โ€ขโ€ฏ Improving experimental designs
   โ€ขโ€ฏ Real sample size calculation
   โ€ขโ€ฏ Demanding highest quality standards in conducting and
      reporting
   โ€ขโ€ฏ Multicenter animal studies?
โ€ขโ€ฏ Registry of animal studies

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SYRCLE_Rovers mini symposium sr animal studies 30082012

  • 1. Systematic reviews of clinical versus animal studies: Parallels and challenges Maroeska M. Rovers Acknowledgments: Carlijn Hooijmans, Malcolm Macleod, Michael Bracken
  • 2. My background โ€ขโ€ฏ Archie Cochrane in 1979: "It is surely a great criticism of our profession that we have not organised a critical summary, by specialty or subspecialty, adapted periodically, of all relevant randomised controlled trialsโ€ โ€ขโ€ฏ 1993: founding of Cochrane Collaboration โ€ขโ€ฏ Mission: to enable people to make well-informed decisions about healthcare
  • 4. The growth in RCTs 35000 MEDLINE 30000 25000 Number of Trials / Year . 20000 Cochrane CCTR 15000 10000 5000 Multicentre Trials 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year of Publication
  • 5. Systematic review in detail Research question Extensive Structured literature reporting search Objective Synthesis of selection results process Objective data Critical extraction appraisal
  • 6. How close is Cochraneโ€™s dream? How many reviews in Cochrane? 3,800 reviews with 6 trials each = 22,800 How many reviews are needed? A. Trials: Number of RCTs over 500,000 So 5% included so far B. Questions: Over 11,000 diseases: If 2 treatments each; 22,000 โ€œquestionsโ€ So 17% of questions
  • 7. What about animal studies How many systematic reviews on animal studies? 248 reviews > 7 million animal studies
  • 8. โ€œMuch animal research into potential treatments for humans is wasted because it is poorly conducted and not evaluated in SRsโ€
  • 9. Potential sources of bias in animal studies Bias Solution Selection bias Randomisation Performance bias Allocation concealment Detection bias Blinded outcome assessment Attrition bias ITT/ reporting drop outs
  • 10. Six interventions compared: 3 similar outcomes 3 discordant results
  • 11. Quality of the studies included in the SR BMJ, 2007
  • 12. Consequences risk of bias Macleod et al. Stroke, 2008
  • 13. Methodological problems 1.โ€ฏ Heterogeneity in animal species and strains used 2.โ€ฏ Different models of inducing illness with varying similarity to the human condition 3.โ€ฏ Variation in dosis/intervention schedule 4.โ€ฏ Variability in how animals are selected 5.โ€ฏ Loss to follow-up not reported 6.โ€ฏ Small groups with inadequate power
  • 14. Methodological problems 7.โ€ฏ Flawed statistical analyses (not taking into account confounding, no ITT) 8.โ€ฏ Variety of outcomes (with uncertain relevance to human condition) 9.โ€ฏ Length of follow-up may not correspond to disease latency inhumans 10.โ€ฏExternal validity often nog thought of
  • 16. Plos. Med. 2005 Solutions: โ€ขโ€ฏ Better powered evidence ร ๏ƒ Larger studies or low bias meta-analyses โ€ขโ€ฏ Registrations of studies
  • 17. And rememberโ€ฆ A systematic review does NOT replace a good quality study
  • 18. Future directions โ€ขโ€ฏ Methodology โ€ขโ€ฏ Search strategies โ€ขโ€ฏ Analyses โ€ขโ€ฏ Individual animal data? โ€ขโ€ฏ Improving experimental designs โ€ขโ€ฏ Real sample size calculation โ€ขโ€ฏ Demanding highest quality standards in conducting and reporting โ€ขโ€ฏ Multicenter animal studies? โ€ขโ€ฏ Registry of animal studies