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Basics of High Tunnel
Economics


     Statewide High Tunnel Conference
             December 2, 2010
                 Karl Foord
     University of Minnesota Extension



            Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   1
                               Foord
Today’s presentation
   Advantages of high tunnels
    reviewed
   Business strategy
    discussion
   Concerns reconsidered
   Financial picture
            Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   2
                               Foord
Advantages of High
Tunnels
   4-8 weeks earlier spring
    production
   2-5 weeks later possible fall
    production
   Very high yield per plant
   Reduce cull fruit
   Very cost effective
   Guarantee a crop
             Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl
                                Foord
                                                              3
Advantages of High Tunnels
cont.
   Crop mix
   Grow crops not usually grown in
    the area
   Natural disease control
   Usually no pesticides needed
   Insect control
   Organic production
   Control water
              Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   4
                                 Foord
The Trump of Advantages
    4 – 8 weeks earlier spring
            production
   New niche
   Customer behavior
   Competitive Quality with field
    product
   Price and margin continuation into
    field season
              Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   5
                                 Foord
The Trump of Advantages –
cont.
   Fresh produce in high demand
    after long winter
   Selling early crops much-needed
    spring income
   Produce for the first markets –
    advantage
       Customers in the habit of coming to
        your booth first, and continuing for
        whole season
                 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl
                                    Foord
                                                                  6
Business Strategy
Discussion
   If you are in the fresh
    vegetable business how will
    you respond to High Tunnel
    Competitors?
   How will you address the
    key features of the 4 – 8
    week earlier produce?
            Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   7
                               Foord
Concerns of High Tunnels
 Cost involved
 Education

 Planning

 Management

 Time
         Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   8
                            Foord
The Trump of Concerns
 Costs
 Pricing

 Margins

 Let’s look at each in turn


         Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   9
                            Foord
Costs
   Capital costs
       Buying and erecting a High
        Tunnel
       Establishing maintenance
        systems to monitor irrigation and
        temperature
   Operation costs
       Tomato budget and assumptions
                 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl Foord   10
Capital costs
 Buyingand erecting a
 High Tunnel



           Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   11
                              Foord
High Tunnel Construction Costs (24' x 96')
                                                                                                               Cost Range
  Item
                                                                                                              Low     High
Site Prep.                                        Site specific
                                      Base                   Upgrade Options                       Ship-
                Distributor
 Gothic                                Kit       Door                                              ping
Frame Kit
               J.R. Johnson          $5,535      $196                                                        $5,535   $5,731

                                                man-        Where on the learning
                Local Labor            114                                                  $15    per hr.   $1,710
                                                hours             curve?
 Const-
                Professional
 ruction                                   Per sq. ft. basis         Cost per tunnel 2304          sq. ft.
               Construction
                 Estimate             $0.50        to       $1.00     $1,152      to      $2,304     $                $2,304

 Non-kit     Materials obtained locally for: baseboards, hipboards, rope (may want extra
                                                                                                              $300    $500
Materials                              screws and metal banding)

Irrigation                          Includes: set up, headers, drip tape                                      $200    $400

  Misc.                            Miscellaneous items not anticipated                                        $100    $200

 Totals             Construction cost range based on above estimates                                         $7,845 $9,135
                    J.R. Johnson http://www.hightunnelhub.com/Hightunnel; http://www.farmtek.com;
  Note                                      http://www.ledgewoodfarm.com

                               Statewide High Tunnel Conference, December 2, 2010 - Karl Foord


                                       Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl                                    12
                                                          Foord
Operation costs

 Tomatobudget and
 assumptions



        Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   13
                           Foord
TUNNEL CROP BUDGET - TOMATOES
                                          $/Tunnel (20' x 96' - 5 rows - 320 plts/tunnel)
           Yield (lbs. per plant)           7         10         14        17         20
          Yield (lbs. per tunnel)         2,240     3,200      4,480     5,440      6,400
          VARIABLE COSTS
 Fertilizer                               $40       $50        $60        $70       $80
 Pest Control                             $50       $50        $50        $50       $50
 Black Plastic Mulch                      $20       $20        $20        $20       $20
IRRIGATION
  Dripline                                 $25       $25        $25       $25        $25
  Drip Irrigation Operation                $25       $25        $25       $25        $25
 Plant Maintenance (Stakes, Twine)         $30       $30        $30       $30        $30
Bees for Pollination                      $100      $100       $100      $100       $100
 Fuel (Tractor & Propane)                  $75       $75        $75       $75        $75
 Transplant Materials                     $160      $160       $160      $160       $160
 Packaging - Boxes (@$1.50)               $105      $150       $210      $255       $300
 Marketing (3% of ave. revenue)            $50       $75       $100      $150       $200
LABOR
  Bed making & laying plastic              $50       $50        $50       $50        $50
  Transplanting                            $70       $70        $70       $70        $70
  Initial staking                          $60       $60        $60       $60        $60
  Trellis - Staking, Training             $200      $200       $200      $200       $200
  Weeding                                  $30       $30        $30       $30        $30
  Ventilation & Monitoring                $300      $300       $300      $300       $300
  Machinery Operation                      $35       $35        $35       $35        $35
  Harvest                                 $263      $315       $350      $438       $525
  Grading/Packing                          $68       $81        $90      $113       $135
  Seasonal Cleanup                         $55       $55        $55       $55        $55
  Land Preparation*                        $55       $55        $55       $55        $55
Interest Expense                           $98      $106       $113      $124       $135
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS                     $1,963    $2,117     $2,263    $2,489     $2,715
    FIXED COSTS
 Land (rent of .2 ac at $150 per acre)     $30       $30        $30       $30        $30
 Depreciation                             $700      $700       $700      $700       $700
TOTAL FIXED COSTS                         $730      $730       $730      $730       $730
         TOTAL COSTS                     $2,693 $2,847 $2,993 $3,219 $3,445
                      Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl                        14
                                         Foord
TUNNEL CROP BUDGET - TOMATOES
                                         Assumptions
Planting rate - 64 plants per 96 ft                                                  Variable
                                                                        Yield
Tunnel dimensions: 96' by 20'                                                       expenses -
                                                                    (lbs./tunnel)
96 ft x 20 x 5 rows = 320 plants per tunnel                                          interest
Yield at 7 lbs. per plant =                                                2,240     $1,865
Yield at 10 lbs. per plant =                                               3,200     $2,011
Yield at 14 lbs. per plant =                                               4,480     $2,150
Yield at 17 lbs. per plant =                                               5,440     $2,365
Yield at 20 lbs. per plant =                                               6,400     $2,580
Land area = 1.2 x area of tunnel
Interest expense = 7% loan 9 month term on: variable expenses
Labor @ $10 per hour; Transplants @ $.50 ea
* assigned a land preparation charge in lieu of machinery and equipment expenses
                               Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl                 15
                                                  Foord
HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
                                                   Yield Cost Breakeven
YIELD (lbs. per plant)         7                  10         14        17               20
YIELD (lbs. per tunnel)      2,240              3,200      4,480     5,440            6,400
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS        $1,497             $1,651     $1,798    $2,025           $2,252
TOTAL FIXED COSTS            $730               $730       $730      $730             $730
TOTAL COSTS                 $2,693             $2,847     $2,993    $3,219           $3,445
BREAKEVEN PRICE
 32# box                    $38.47             $28.47              $21.38   $18.94   $17.23
 per pound                  $1.20               $0.89              $0.67    $0.59     $0.54




                           Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl                16
                                              Foord
Enterprise Profitability
   Profitability analysis (Net
    Present Value )
   Combine capital costs and
    operational costs


            Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   17
                               Foord
HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
                     Profitability Scenarios ( 5 year life expectancy of tunnel)
               Scenario # 1 - Low Price ($1.50) / Low Yield (7 lbs. per plant)
                                                             YEAR
YEAR                                0          1          2           3           4         5
AVERAGE YIELD (lbs. per tunnel)              2240       2240        2240        2240      2240
AVERAGE PRICE (per pound)                    $1.50      $1.50       $1.50       $1.50     $1.50
REVENUES                                    $3,360     $3,360      $3,360      $3,360    $3,360
EXPENSES                                    $2,693    $2,693      $2,693       $2,693    $2,693
PROFIT / CASH FLOW               ($8,500)      $667       $667        $667        $667      $667
PV OF CASH FLOW @ 7.50 %         ($8,500)      $620       $577        $537        $499      $465
NPV @ 7.50 %                      $2,699
                                       ($5,801)




                               Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl              18
                                                  Foord
HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
                     Profitability Scenarios ( 5 year life expectancy of tunnel)
            Scenario # 2 - Medium Price ($2.50) / Medium Yield (14 lbs. per plant)
                                                             YEAR
YEAR                                 0          1         2          3           4         5
AVERAGE YIELD (lbs. per tunnel)               4480      4480       4480        4480      4480
AVERAGE PRICE (per pound)                    $2.50      $2.50     $2.50       $2.50      $2.50
REVENUES                                    $11,200 $11,200 $11,200 $11,200             $11,200
EXPENSES                                    $2,993     $2,993    $2,993      $2,993     $2,993
PROFIT / CASH FLOW                ($8,500) $8,207       $8,207     $8,207      $8,207    $8,207
PV OF CASH FLOW @ 7.50 %          ($8,500) $7,634       $7,102     $6,606      $6,145    $5,717
NPV @ 7.50 %                     $33,205
                                     $24,705




                                Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl            19
                                                   Foord
HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
                    Profitability Scenarios ( 5 year life expectancy of tunnel)
              Scenario # 3 - High Price ($4.00) / High Yield (20 lbs. per plant)
                                                              YEAR
YEAR                                 0          1          2           3           4        5
AVERAGE YIELD (lbs. per tunnel)               6400       6400        6400        6400     6400
AVERAGE PRICE (per pound)                    $4.00       $4.00      $4.00        $4.00    $4.00
REVENUES                                    $25,600 $25,600 $25,600 $25,600              $25,600
EXPENSES                                    $3,445      $3,445     $3,445      $3,445    $3,445
PROFIT / CASH FLOW                ($8,500) $22,155 $22,155 $22,155 $22,155               $22,155
PV OF CASH FLOW @ 7.50 %          ($8,500) $20,609 $19,171 $17,834 $16,590               $15,432
NPV @ 7.50 %                     $89,637
                                      $81,137




                                Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl               20
                                                   Foord
Pricing
   Do not be afraid to ask a
    profitable price for your
    produce
   Customers need to be aware
    that it costs more to produce
    early crops
   Highest quality is the only crop
    you should market
             Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl
                                Foord
                                                              21
Customer perceptions
   Exchange – Something of
    Value for an amount of
    satisfaction
   The perceived value > the
    price
   Largely behavioral not
    mathematical
   Usually an emotional trigger
             Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl
                                Foord
                                                              22
Price Sensitivity /
Behavior
 Price ~ Quality
 Unique ~ Value

 Fairness




         Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   23
                            Foord
What Are We Really Selling?
       “Revlon sells chemicals
         Women buy glamour”


   Fruits and vegetables
   Flowers

            Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   24
                               Foord
What Are People Really
Buying?
   Health
   Taste
   The experience of the
    market itself
   Support of local growers

            Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   25
                               Foord
Pricing Decision Chart
  Pricing                       COMPANY VIEW                                            OUR
   Goal                        OUR COSTS - OUR GOALS                                  ASKING
    ($)                                                                                PRICE
   Profit                        Profitable Enterprise



                                                                                      WIN - WIN
                                                                                     EXCHANGE
                 Fixed Costs




                                      Total Costs                                    LOSE - WIN
                                                                                     EXCHANGE
                                        Overhead

                                    Salaries, Etc…
    Variable Costs




                                     Direct Costs
                                      Materials




                                    Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl                26
                                                       Foord
Pricing Decision Chart
   OUR         CUSTOMER                          CUSTOMER VIEW
 ASKING          VALUE                          SATISFY A NEED
  PRICE      DETERMINATION                   Customer's Pricing Goal
                                             Perceived Value > Price
                  NO
               EXCHANGE                    PERCEIVED VALUE
 WIN - WIN                            FOCUS OF MARKETING EFFORTS
EXCHANGE
                                              Perception Factors
LOSE - WIN    EMOTIONAL                          Convenience
EXCHANGE       BENEFIT                         Reference Prices
                                         Other Key Perception Factors:
             FUNCTIONALITY                    Quality - Freshness
                                                Access - hours
                                             Choice / Uniqueness
                                             Method of production
                                               Employee Attitude

                                        Exceptionally Low Prices can
                                       Generate a Low Perceived Value

                   Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl        27
                                      Foord
PRICING DECISION CHART
                   COMPANY VIEW                                        Customer                     CUSTOMER VIEW
                                                 Our Asking
                                                                         Value                           Satisfy a Want
                                                   Price
                    Our Costs - Our Goals                            Determination
                                                                                                   Perceived Value > Price
Pricing
Goal ($)                                                   No Exchange                             Line of Perceived Value
 Profit
                     Profitable Enterprise            WIN - WIN Exchange
                                                                                                 Focus of Marketing Efforts

                                                 LOSE - WIN            WIN - LOSE
                     Total Costs                 Exchange              Exchange
                                                                                                     Perception Factors
                                                                                                           Convenience
  Fixed Costs




                                                                                                         Reference Prices
                   Overhead Salaries, Etc…
                                                                                                        Context - Urgency
                                                                        Emotional                         Health Benefits
                                                                         Benefit
                                                                                                      Selection - Uniqueness
  Variable Costs




                                                                                            Confidence: no frustrations or headaches
                                                                                                Quality - Reputation - Dependability
                    Direct Costs Materials
                                                                                                 Philosophical Match - Ecological
                                                                      Functionality
                                                                                                       Low Perceived Value

                                             J.R. Johnson - September 9, 2010, Karl Foord



                                               Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl                                          28
                                                                  Foord
Improving customer
experience
   Parking & Access
   Ease of movement within
    market
   Stall Presentation
   Comfort in all weather
   5 Sense your market
     Taste, touch, smell, sight,
      sound
             Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   29
                                Foord
Understand
   Key customer perception factors
   Product use & impact of attributes
    on value
   Value varies among buyers
   Manage customer perception
    proactively
   Expand gap between value
    received and price paid
              Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   30
                                 Foord
References
   http://plasticulture.cas.psu.edu
   http://www.plasticulture.org
   Minnesota High Tunnel Web Site
     http://hightunnels.cfans.umn.edu/

       http:// hightunnels.org


                Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   31
                                   Foord
High Tunnel Manual on the
Web
   www.extension.umn.edu

   Click on garden

   See “ Whats new on the Web”
   Or go direct
    www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/horti
    culture/M1218.html
               Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   32
                                  Foord
Other High Tunnel
Suppliers
   Farmtek
   http://www.farmtek.com
   1440 Field of Dreams Way, Dyersville, IA
    52040
   Ledgewood Farm
   http://www.ledgewoodfarm.com
   132 Old Mountain RD, Moultonborough,
    NH 03254   Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   33
                                  Foord
Author
   Karl Foord Ph.D. MBA
   Regional Educator, Horticulture
   foord001@umn.edu
   (651) 558-1218




                Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl   34
                                   Foord
Handouts
   Tomato Budget (2 sided assumptions on
    back)
   Tomato Sensitivity Analysis (financial)
   High Tunnel Construction Budget




                MN High Tunnel Season Extension 12/5/08 -   35
                               Karl Foord

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Basics of high tunnel economics high tunnel conference 12 2010

  • 1. Basics of High Tunnel Economics Statewide High Tunnel Conference December 2, 2010 Karl Foord University of Minnesota Extension Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 1 Foord
  • 2. Today’s presentation  Advantages of high tunnels reviewed  Business strategy discussion  Concerns reconsidered  Financial picture Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 2 Foord
  • 3. Advantages of High Tunnels  4-8 weeks earlier spring production  2-5 weeks later possible fall production  Very high yield per plant  Reduce cull fruit  Very cost effective  Guarantee a crop Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl Foord 3
  • 4. Advantages of High Tunnels cont.  Crop mix  Grow crops not usually grown in the area  Natural disease control  Usually no pesticides needed  Insect control  Organic production  Control water Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 4 Foord
  • 5. The Trump of Advantages 4 – 8 weeks earlier spring production  New niche  Customer behavior  Competitive Quality with field product  Price and margin continuation into field season Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 5 Foord
  • 6. The Trump of Advantages – cont.  Fresh produce in high demand after long winter  Selling early crops much-needed spring income  Produce for the first markets – advantage  Customers in the habit of coming to your booth first, and continuing for whole season Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl Foord 6
  • 7. Business Strategy Discussion  If you are in the fresh vegetable business how will you respond to High Tunnel Competitors?  How will you address the key features of the 4 – 8 week earlier produce? Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 7 Foord
  • 8. Concerns of High Tunnels  Cost involved  Education  Planning  Management  Time Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 8 Foord
  • 9. The Trump of Concerns  Costs  Pricing  Margins  Let’s look at each in turn Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 9 Foord
  • 10. Costs  Capital costs  Buying and erecting a High Tunnel  Establishing maintenance systems to monitor irrigation and temperature  Operation costs  Tomato budget and assumptions Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl Foord 10
  • 11. Capital costs  Buyingand erecting a High Tunnel Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 11 Foord
  • 12. High Tunnel Construction Costs (24' x 96') Cost Range Item Low High Site Prep. Site specific Base Upgrade Options Ship- Distributor Gothic Kit Door ping Frame Kit J.R. Johnson $5,535 $196 $5,535 $5,731 man- Where on the learning Local Labor 114 $15 per hr. $1,710 hours curve? Const- Professional ruction Per sq. ft. basis Cost per tunnel 2304 sq. ft. Construction Estimate $0.50 to $1.00 $1,152 to $2,304 $ $2,304 Non-kit Materials obtained locally for: baseboards, hipboards, rope (may want extra $300 $500 Materials screws and metal banding) Irrigation Includes: set up, headers, drip tape $200 $400 Misc. Miscellaneous items not anticipated $100 $200 Totals Construction cost range based on above estimates $7,845 $9,135 J.R. Johnson http://www.hightunnelhub.com/Hightunnel; http://www.farmtek.com; Note http://www.ledgewoodfarm.com Statewide High Tunnel Conference, December 2, 2010 - Karl Foord Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 12 Foord
  • 13. Operation costs  Tomatobudget and assumptions Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 13 Foord
  • 14. TUNNEL CROP BUDGET - TOMATOES $/Tunnel (20' x 96' - 5 rows - 320 plts/tunnel) Yield (lbs. per plant) 7 10 14 17 20 Yield (lbs. per tunnel) 2,240 3,200 4,480 5,440 6,400 VARIABLE COSTS Fertilizer $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 Pest Control $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 Black Plastic Mulch $20 $20 $20 $20 $20 IRRIGATION Dripline $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 Drip Irrigation Operation $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 Plant Maintenance (Stakes, Twine) $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 Bees for Pollination $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 Fuel (Tractor & Propane) $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 Transplant Materials $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 Packaging - Boxes (@$1.50) $105 $150 $210 $255 $300 Marketing (3% of ave. revenue) $50 $75 $100 $150 $200 LABOR Bed making & laying plastic $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 Transplanting $70 $70 $70 $70 $70 Initial staking $60 $60 $60 $60 $60 Trellis - Staking, Training $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 Weeding $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 Ventilation & Monitoring $300 $300 $300 $300 $300 Machinery Operation $35 $35 $35 $35 $35 Harvest $263 $315 $350 $438 $525 Grading/Packing $68 $81 $90 $113 $135 Seasonal Cleanup $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 Land Preparation* $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 Interest Expense $98 $106 $113 $124 $135 TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS $1,963 $2,117 $2,263 $2,489 $2,715 FIXED COSTS Land (rent of .2 ac at $150 per acre) $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 Depreciation $700 $700 $700 $700 $700 TOTAL FIXED COSTS $730 $730 $730 $730 $730 TOTAL COSTS $2,693 $2,847 $2,993 $3,219 $3,445 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 14 Foord
  • 15. TUNNEL CROP BUDGET - TOMATOES Assumptions Planting rate - 64 plants per 96 ft Variable Yield Tunnel dimensions: 96' by 20' expenses - (lbs./tunnel) 96 ft x 20 x 5 rows = 320 plants per tunnel interest Yield at 7 lbs. per plant = 2,240 $1,865 Yield at 10 lbs. per plant = 3,200 $2,011 Yield at 14 lbs. per plant = 4,480 $2,150 Yield at 17 lbs. per plant = 5,440 $2,365 Yield at 20 lbs. per plant = 6,400 $2,580 Land area = 1.2 x area of tunnel Interest expense = 7% loan 9 month term on: variable expenses Labor @ $10 per hour; Transplants @ $.50 ea * assigned a land preparation charge in lieu of machinery and equipment expenses Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 15 Foord
  • 16. HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Yield Cost Breakeven YIELD (lbs. per plant) 7 10 14 17 20 YIELD (lbs. per tunnel) 2,240 3,200 4,480 5,440 6,400 TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS $1,497 $1,651 $1,798 $2,025 $2,252 TOTAL FIXED COSTS $730 $730 $730 $730 $730 TOTAL COSTS $2,693 $2,847 $2,993 $3,219 $3,445 BREAKEVEN PRICE 32# box $38.47 $28.47 $21.38 $18.94 $17.23 per pound $1.20 $0.89 $0.67 $0.59 $0.54 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 16 Foord
  • 17. Enterprise Profitability  Profitability analysis (Net Present Value )  Combine capital costs and operational costs Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 17 Foord
  • 18. HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Profitability Scenarios ( 5 year life expectancy of tunnel) Scenario # 1 - Low Price ($1.50) / Low Yield (7 lbs. per plant) YEAR YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 AVERAGE YIELD (lbs. per tunnel) 2240 2240 2240 2240 2240 AVERAGE PRICE (per pound) $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 REVENUES $3,360 $3,360 $3,360 $3,360 $3,360 EXPENSES $2,693 $2,693 $2,693 $2,693 $2,693 PROFIT / CASH FLOW ($8,500) $667 $667 $667 $667 $667 PV OF CASH FLOW @ 7.50 % ($8,500) $620 $577 $537 $499 $465 NPV @ 7.50 % $2,699 ($5,801) Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 18 Foord
  • 19. HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Profitability Scenarios ( 5 year life expectancy of tunnel) Scenario # 2 - Medium Price ($2.50) / Medium Yield (14 lbs. per plant) YEAR YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 AVERAGE YIELD (lbs. per tunnel) 4480 4480 4480 4480 4480 AVERAGE PRICE (per pound) $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 REVENUES $11,200 $11,200 $11,200 $11,200 $11,200 EXPENSES $2,993 $2,993 $2,993 $2,993 $2,993 PROFIT / CASH FLOW ($8,500) $8,207 $8,207 $8,207 $8,207 $8,207 PV OF CASH FLOW @ 7.50 % ($8,500) $7,634 $7,102 $6,606 $6,145 $5,717 NPV @ 7.50 % $33,205 $24,705 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 19 Foord
  • 20. HIGH TUNNEL PRODUCTION SYSTEM - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Profitability Scenarios ( 5 year life expectancy of tunnel) Scenario # 3 - High Price ($4.00) / High Yield (20 lbs. per plant) YEAR YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 AVERAGE YIELD (lbs. per tunnel) 6400 6400 6400 6400 6400 AVERAGE PRICE (per pound) $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 REVENUES $25,600 $25,600 $25,600 $25,600 $25,600 EXPENSES $3,445 $3,445 $3,445 $3,445 $3,445 PROFIT / CASH FLOW ($8,500) $22,155 $22,155 $22,155 $22,155 $22,155 PV OF CASH FLOW @ 7.50 % ($8,500) $20,609 $19,171 $17,834 $16,590 $15,432 NPV @ 7.50 % $89,637 $81,137 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 20 Foord
  • 21. Pricing  Do not be afraid to ask a profitable price for your produce  Customers need to be aware that it costs more to produce early crops  Highest quality is the only crop you should market Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl Foord 21
  • 22. Customer perceptions  Exchange – Something of Value for an amount of satisfaction  The perceived value > the price  Largely behavioral not mathematical  Usually an emotional trigger Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl Foord 22
  • 23. Price Sensitivity / Behavior  Price ~ Quality  Unique ~ Value  Fairness Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 23 Foord
  • 24. What Are We Really Selling? “Revlon sells chemicals Women buy glamour”  Fruits and vegetables  Flowers Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 24 Foord
  • 25. What Are People Really Buying?  Health  Taste  The experience of the market itself  Support of local growers Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 25 Foord
  • 26. Pricing Decision Chart Pricing COMPANY VIEW OUR Goal OUR COSTS - OUR GOALS ASKING ($) PRICE Profit Profitable Enterprise WIN - WIN EXCHANGE Fixed Costs Total Costs LOSE - WIN EXCHANGE Overhead Salaries, Etc… Variable Costs Direct Costs Materials Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 26 Foord
  • 27. Pricing Decision Chart OUR CUSTOMER CUSTOMER VIEW ASKING VALUE SATISFY A NEED PRICE DETERMINATION Customer's Pricing Goal Perceived Value > Price NO EXCHANGE PERCEIVED VALUE WIN - WIN FOCUS OF MARKETING EFFORTS EXCHANGE Perception Factors LOSE - WIN EMOTIONAL Convenience EXCHANGE BENEFIT Reference Prices Other Key Perception Factors: FUNCTIONALITY Quality - Freshness Access - hours Choice / Uniqueness Method of production Employee Attitude Exceptionally Low Prices can Generate a Low Perceived Value Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 27 Foord
  • 28. PRICING DECISION CHART COMPANY VIEW Customer CUSTOMER VIEW Our Asking Value Satisfy a Want Price Our Costs - Our Goals Determination Perceived Value > Price Pricing Goal ($) No Exchange Line of Perceived Value Profit Profitable Enterprise WIN - WIN Exchange Focus of Marketing Efforts LOSE - WIN WIN - LOSE Total Costs Exchange Exchange Perception Factors Convenience Fixed Costs Reference Prices Overhead Salaries, Etc… Context - Urgency Emotional Health Benefits Benefit Selection - Uniqueness Variable Costs Confidence: no frustrations or headaches Quality - Reputation - Dependability Direct Costs Materials Philosophical Match - Ecological Functionality Low Perceived Value J.R. Johnson - September 9, 2010, Karl Foord Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 28 Foord
  • 29. Improving customer experience  Parking & Access  Ease of movement within market  Stall Presentation  Comfort in all weather  5 Sense your market  Taste, touch, smell, sight, sound Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 29 Foord
  • 30. Understand  Key customer perception factors  Product use & impact of attributes on value  Value varies among buyers  Manage customer perception proactively  Expand gap between value received and price paid Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 30 Foord
  • 31. References  http://plasticulture.cas.psu.edu  http://www.plasticulture.org  Minnesota High Tunnel Web Site  http://hightunnels.cfans.umn.edu/  http:// hightunnels.org Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 31 Foord
  • 32. High Tunnel Manual on the Web  www.extension.umn.edu  Click on garden  See “ Whats new on the Web”  Or go direct www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/horti culture/M1218.html Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 32 Foord
  • 33. Other High Tunnel Suppliers  Farmtek  http://www.farmtek.com  1440 Field of Dreams Way, Dyersville, IA 52040  Ledgewood Farm  http://www.ledgewoodfarm.com  132 Old Mountain RD, Moultonborough, NH 03254 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 33 Foord
  • 34. Author  Karl Foord Ph.D. MBA  Regional Educator, Horticulture  foord001@umn.edu  (651) 558-1218 Statewid High Tunnel Conference 12/2/10 - Karl 34 Foord
  • 35. Handouts  Tomato Budget (2 sided assumptions on back)  Tomato Sensitivity Analysis (financial)  High Tunnel Construction Budget MN High Tunnel Season Extension 12/5/08 - 35 Karl Foord

Notas del editor

  1. Terry’s comment: The people that are successful with high tunnels treat them like a dairy cow .
  2. Consider this a tool for your chosen costs and features
  3. Critical thing to remember is that you need to develop your own budget This one can’t possibly be yours and good exercise to go through your numbers Depreciation is low
  4. If we know our entry input costs and we have a budget we can determine the profitability of the enterprise based on yield and price assumptions. We assume that the tunnel has a 5 year life thus 5 years to absorb the costs of the initial investment
  5. Obviously as yield and price increase the enterprise profitability increases
  6. If we use optimistic assumptions we can see where Dallas can make his statement of paying for the tunnel in two years Used as a tool we can change the costs of construction at year 0 and see how long it takes to pay for the initial investment
  7. Guy with railroad injury – emotional trigger – grain marketing
  8. Price-Quality Challenge Lexus vs. Mercedes – the system is dynamic People who get comfortable with the status quo do so at their own peril Fairness – most people think it is fair to pass on your increased costs i.e. our situation – some will think not - coke machines whose price varies with ambient temperature Unique – University of Minnesota – don’t ever discount your data or your ability to interpret it – we are not a commodity, will never be a commodity, and we would be making a critical error to ever consider ourselves to be one Behaviors: Give people the option to continue their learning with your materials
  9. Talk about Kevin CFFM and their consultant – features vs. client benefits Farmers may have a different perspective on the “cool” parts of software than Win
  10. The visual side of roundup ready fields Bailey’s view on the taste of his wine – what about a French lady bug All things being equal what can you add in this realm – HP Calculators Experience Engineering Inc. - Michael Vance and Walt Disney
  11. Mark Boen – Customers talked about the great taste of the lettuce – they loved the variety Did you hear Mark talk about his customer responses?!! Did you hear him talk about the color shape mouth feel taste of the greens about the great characteristics of his cucumbers Orgasmic as a descriptor!! Did you hear his attitude, what wouldn’t you buy from him? 3rd grade teacher 9 Rubber duckie Berry Ridge Farm – Ron Branch’s farm His customer base has expanded through family lineages Is this the Hatfield McCoy’s or the Pleasantville McCoy’s? Did you hear him talk about his boys?