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Francesca Rosso, Labour Market Specialist, Operations Department, European Training Foundation, (ETF)

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Francesca Rosso, Labour Market Specialist, Operations Department, European Training Foundation, (ETF)

  1. 1. LABOUR MARKET, YOUTH EMPLOYABILITYAND ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE MEDITERRANEAN Francesca Rosso, European Training Foundation 12 December 2019, Rome UNIMED General Assembly 2019, Shaping the Mediterranean from Cooperation to Integration
  2. 2. CHANGING LABOUR MARKETS AND ECONOMIC CONTEXTS
  3. 3. A diversified picture SEMED COUNTRIES IN 2019: Level of Economic development Economic Structure Integration in Global economy Income Distribution and poverty 3
  4. 4. DIFFERENT LEVELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP/capita (2017 or LAD) DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN Data source: ETF KIESE 4 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 2015 2016 2017 GDP growth rate (%) DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
  5. 5. SPREAD POVERTY AND GROWING INEQUALITIES 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (% of population), 2016 Data source: World Bank At least 1/4 of the population under the poverty line in Egypt, Lebanon, Palestine Polarisation of societies happens both between countries and within countries, with high picks in Israel, Morocco, Palestine 0 10 20 30 40 50 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN Gini Coefficient 5
  6. 6. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF SERVICES AND DECLINING AGRICULTURE (BUT STILL PROMINENT IN SOME COUNTRIES) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN UE Employment share of services and agriculture (%) SERV 2017 or LAD SERV 2011 AGR 2017 or LAD AGR 2011 Data source: ETF KIESE 6
  7. 7. VERY HIGH INFORMALITY 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN Share of informal employment, 2014 or LAD 4 out of 5 workers are informal in Morocco, and 3 out of 5 in Egypt, Palestine and Tunisia Data source: ILO 7
  8. 8. CONSIDERABLE INTEGRATION IN GLOBAL ECONOMY 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN Exports (% of GDP) FDI flows(% of GDP) Remittances (% of GDP) Data source: World Bank, UNDP, 2017 or LAD 8
  9. 9. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VS. INNOVATION CAPACITY AND DIGITAL READINESS DZ - [Y VALUE] EG - [Y VALUE] IL - 11 JO - [Y VALUE] LB - [Y VALUE] MA - [Y VALUE] TN - [Y VALUE] 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 GlobalInnvoationIndexrank(2018) GDP per capita PPP crt. $ (2017) Global innovation index (2018) Data source: ETF KIESE, INSEAD, WIPO 9 DZ - [Y VALUE]EG - [Y VALUE] IL - [Y VALUE] JO - [Y VALUE] MA - [Y VALUE] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 DigitalReadinessIndexrank(2018) GDP per capita PPP crt. $ (2017) Digital readiness index (2018)
  10. 10. DEMOGRAPHYAND SKILLS
  11. 11. DECREASING BUT VERY YOUNG POPULATION Share of youths (0-24) in the population 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 IL DZ EG JO LB MA PS TN 2020 2005 2010 2015 Data source: ETF KIESE 11
  12. 12. LESS LOW EDUCATED, MORE TERTIARY EDUCATED 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 IL DZ EG JO LB MA PS TN PRIMARY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT POPULATION (% AGED) 2012 2017 OR LAD Data source: ETF KIESE 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 IL DZ EG JO LB MA PS TN EU TERTIARY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT POPULATION (%AGED 25+) 2012 2017 OR LAD 12
  13. 13. RAISING YEARS OF SCHOOLING BUT HIGH DROP OUTS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN UE Average Adjusted Expected Data source: ETF KIESEACCESS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN EU Early leavers from education (%aged 18-24) 2012 2017 OR LAD 2017 or LAD 13
  14. 14. AND HIGH NUMBER OF LOW ACHIEVERS 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN EU Underachievement in key competences (2015) (% of 15 years olds) Reading Mathematics Science QUALITY Data source: ETF KIESE 14DIGITAL SKILLS AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP?
  15. 15. AND SKILLS POLARISATION 9,1 68,2 42 49,8 66,5 81,7 59,3 56,4 33,0 34,4 19,3 38,1 18,7 15,3 10,5 16,3 20,8 48,0 56,5 12,5 19,8 31,5 17,9 7,9 24,4 22,8 19,0 I L DZ E G J O LB MA P S T N E U EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ACTIVE POPULATION (% AGED 15+), 2017 OR LAD LOW MEDIUM HIGH Data source: ETF KIESE 15
  16. 16. LOW ENROLMENT IN VET Students in vocational programmes as % of total upper secondary students 0 10 20 30 40 50 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN UE 24.2 Lebanon 11.6 Morocco 2.2 Palestine 9.6 Tunisia 9.7 Algeria 46 Egypt 40.3 Israel 13.1 Jordan Data source: ETF KIESE, 2017 or LAD 16
  17. 17. LOW PARTICIPATION IN LIFELONG LEARNING Adult participation in lifelong learning (2016/2017) (% of 25-64-year-olds) 10.2 Israel 1 Morocco 1.3 Tunisia 10.9 EU 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 IL MA TN EU Data source: ETF KIESE 17 HOW TO RUN BUSINESS IN CHANGING CONTEXTS?
  18. 18. SKILLS UTLISATION
  19. 19. HIGHER INCIDENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG GRADUATES 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN EU UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (% AGED 15+) LOW MEDIUM HIGH VET Data source: ETF KIESE, 2017 or LAD 19
  20. 20. HIGH SKILLS MISMATCH: EXAMPLE FROM EGYPT 0 5 10 15 20 25 OCCUPATIONAL MISMATCH HIGH LEVEL (2016) (TERTIARY GRADUATES WORKING IN SEMI- SKILLED JOBS) (ISCO 4-9) TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0 5 10 15 20 OCCUPATIONAL MISMATCH: MEDIUM LEVEL (2017) HIGH- SCHOOL GRADUATES WORKING IN LOW-SKILLED JOBS (ISCO 9) TOTAL MALE FEMALE Data source: ETF 20ROLE OF HIGH QUALITY JOB CREATION?
  21. 21. HIGH NUMBER OF NEETS, VERY HETEROGENEOUS 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN Persons not in employment, education or training-NEETs (% aged 15-24) 2017 OR LAD 2012 Data source: ETF KIESE Share of NEETS (15-29 years old) by sub-category (2013) Unemployed Inactive Family carers Discouraged Palestine Egypt 21
  22. 22. WOMEN ARE AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE FACTORS OF EXCLUSION… … with young women’s opportunity to enter in the labour market being almost non existent in some countries Data source: ETF calculations, 2017 or LAD 22
  23. 23. PARADOXES AND OPPORTUNITIES
  24. 24. PARADOXES  Higher education vs. not higher labour market outcomes  More women educated vs women substantially out of the market  Less jobs in PA vs. youth expectations  Right skills missing vs missing information on which «right» skills?  Higher integration in global economy vs. low regional integration/dialogue  Job creation mostly in informal economy vs decent jobs agenda 24
  25. 25. OPPORTUNITIES  New jobs and skills set: • Further integration in GVC • Automation and digitalisation • Upgrading traditional sectors • Platform economy • Greening of economies • Support to entrepreneurship and start up /SMEs growth • Holistic approach to informality (incl. Skills programmes for informal workers) 25
  26. 26. (SOME) SUCCESS FACTORS 26
  27. 27. METHODS OF WORK  Holistic approaches to skills and employability  Long term systemic actions+ quick wins  Co- work the future through partnership (enterprises but not only)  Action at local level 27
  28. 28. THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON Starting point Choices Institutions BA C 28

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