By the Number: Lowndes County in 2040
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Presentation given to the 2014 Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit.
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By the Number: Lowndes County in 2040
- 1. By the Numbers: Lowndes County in 2040 Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Summit August 2014
- 2. The Art of Site Selection
- 3. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
- 4. 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study • Transportation, Economic Development, Land Use, Housing • Planning for the Future • Infrastructure Improvements • Need for Services • Federal and State Regulations • Partnership - MPO, County, Cities
- 5. 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study • What will Lowndes County look like in 2040? • 5 Year Increments; 2010-2040 • Population • Housing • Employment (broad) • Foundation for planning and growth strategies
- 6. 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study • Transportation (Req.) – Population – Households – Median HH Income – Employment • Manufacturing • Wholesale • Service • Retail – Student Enrollment • Additional Data – Race/Sex/Age – Housing Ownership – Housing Type – Housing Units – Housing Type – Household Size – Housing Vacancy – Unemployment – Educational Attainment – Labor Force
- 7. Population 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Total Population 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
- 8. Population – Race 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Race in Lowndes County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 White Black American Indian Asian Other Multi Racial
- 9. Population – Hispanic Ethnicity 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Hispanic Ethnicity in Lowndes County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Hispanic
- 10. Population Observations • By 2030 Whites will be in the minority • Hispanic population expected to double • Lowndes County will be more diverse, multi-racial
- 11. Population – Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Age by Year Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 12. Population – School Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Lowndes County Population - School Ages Under 5 5-13 14-24 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 13. School Enrollment 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Lowndes County School Enrollment 24,000 Total Students 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 14. Educational Attainment 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Lowndes County HS Education 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED
- 15. Educational Attainment 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% High School Only % over 25 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED
- 16. Educational Attainment 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Advanced Education in Lowndes County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Some College Associates Bachelors Graduate
- 17. Educational Attainment 2014 2040 Less than 9th Grade 2.9% 0% Less than HS 16.5% 3.9% HS Diploma/GED 31.8% 29.5% Some College 20.9% 28.4% Associates 6.9% 9.6% Bachelor’s 13.4% 18.4% Graduate 7.6% 9.82% 2014: EMSI 2Q2014, Georgia Power, The are of Site Selection
- 18. Population – Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Age by Year Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 19. Education Observations • School aged children live here • After college, large numbers leave • Where to put all of these students – Traditional vs. Online Classes? • HS only education continues to rise, but fall as a percentage of total adults (30%)
- 20. Population – Workforce 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Lowndes County Workforce 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 35-54 will be the workforce
- 21. Employment Sectors • Service (everything that is not below) – Military, government, education, healthcare, etc. • Retail • Manufacturing • Wholesale Michael Rivera
- 22. Employment 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Employment Sectors 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment
- 23. Employment 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Manufacturing Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Wholesale Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 24. Employment 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Service Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Retail Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 25. Employment 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Employment Sectors 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment
- 26. Employment 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Labor Force and Unemployment 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Labor Force Unemployment %
- 27. Employment – Commuting 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Daytime Population vs Resident Population 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Daytime Population Total Pop 11,300
- 28. Population – Age 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Age by Year Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- 29. Employment Observations • 2015 – 25-34 is largest employed population, by 2040 35-54 is largest group • All sectors grow, just not as much as Service • Is unemployment in the 6-7% range the new norm? • Regional economy with commuters, need the infrastructure to support
- 30. Owner vs. Renter 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Owner vs. Renter Occupancy 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Owner Renter
- 31. Housing Type 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Housing Type 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Single Family Multi-Family Manufactured
- 32. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
- 33. Aspirant Communities – Population* Rank County Metro State Population Growth %* 1 Lee Opelika AL 85.46% 2 Houston Warner Robins GA 58.80% 3 Warren Bowling Green KY 49.70% 4 Montgomery Clarksville TN 47.56% 5 Morgan Decatur AL 34.78% 6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 34.76% 7 Clarke Athens GA 33.09% 8 Nash Rocky Mount NC 21.90% 9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 21.55% 10 Floyd Rome GA 20.26% 11 Florence Florence SC 13.62% 12 Houston Dothan AL 8.54% 13 Rapides Alexandria LA 6.21% 14 Ouachita Monroe LA 4.13% 15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data *Change from base year to future year *2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
- 34. Aspirant Communities – Employment* Rank County Metro State Employment Growth %* 1 Lee Opelika AL 104.42% 2 Florence Florence SC 58.21% 3 Montgomery Clarksville TN 52.41% 4 Houston Warner Robins GA 48.90% 5 Warren Bowling Green KY 44.42% 6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 40.01% 7 Clarke Athens GA 38.29% 8 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 36.48% 9 Morgan Decatur AL 34.79% 10 Houston Dothan AL 29.38% 11 Floyd Rome GA 19.66% 12 Rapides Alexandria LA 18.28% 13 Ouachita Monroe LA 10.00% 14 Nash Rocky Mount NC 0.00% 15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data *2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
- 35. Aspirant Communities – Overall* Sum County Metro State 1 Lee Opelika AL 2 Houston Warner Robins GA 3 Montgomery Clarksville TN 4 Warren Bowling Green KY 5 Lowndes Valdosta GA 6 Florence Florence SC 7 Morgan Decatur AL 7 Clarke Athens GA 9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 10 Floyd Rome GA 11 Nash Rocky Mount NC 11 Houston Dothan AL 13 Rapides Alexandria LA 14 Ouachita Monroe LA 15 Wayne Goldsboro NC *2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
- 36. So where are we going? 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
- 37. Common Community Vision A resilient community where partnerships and coordination promote regional success in economic development, education, infrastructure, and a high quality of life.
- 38. Common Community Vision • Support Economic Engines • Workforce Training – technical and career skills, public/private partnerships • Encourage small businesses • Regional strategy • Education -> 21st Century workforce • Coordinated Governments Services
- 39. Where does Transportation Fit? • Partnerships and Resources • Transportation Infrastructure – Promote ED, private investment • Improve walkability and bikeability • Regional Connectivity • Multi-modal transportation system – Public transit, public/private partnerships, safety, airport services
- 40. 2040 Transportation Vision Plan • August-September 2014; Public Input • Project Selection/Prioritization • Travel Demand Model Development • Multi-modal transportation options • June-August 2015; Final Public Input • September 2015; Adoption of Plan
- 41. Corey Hull, AICP Southern Georgia Regional Commission Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization chull@sgrc.us www.sgrc.us/transportation
Editor's Notes
- Nee How (hello) and Shi-wu How (good afternoon)
- How many of you attended? What did you get out of this presentation? Where do you think we are heading if we don’t change the way we do things? How do you think Lowndes County is doing economically?
- The title of this slide does not matter, it could be ecomic development, population, growth, income, anything. Which line do you think Lowndes County is? What line do you want to be?
- Why did we do this study?
- What did the SE data study cover?
- Various types of data collected
- Population trend
- White population growth slows, all others increase, significantly, Lwondes county is becoming more multi-racial. White will be minority by 2025.
- Hispanic growth is tremendous, more than doubleing.
- Current school enrollment is 24K.
- Less than HS ends by 2030, still 3800 persons with less than HS education (is this just the older population, or is it new students.
- Even by 2040, more than 30% of our population over 25 will have a HS education or less.
- The number of people getting some sort of advanced education continues to grow. All degrees nearly double, some college, doesn’t quite double, does this mean more people are finishing their higher education?
- Our working population is getting older
- All sectors show growth, but it is important to look at the scale of that growth.
- All sectors show growth, but it is important to look at the scale of that growth.
- Can better see the scale of the growth here, manufacturing and wholesale are flat lined, but service and retail show the growth.
- Unemployment rates are hard to predict with so many outside factors,
- 57% rentals in Lowndes County, 68% in Valdosta. Currently 58% in Valdosta.
- Manufactured housing, while the smaller share, grows by 49%, vs. traditional single family by 29% and multi-family by 32%
- What line do you think Lowndes County is now?
- What line do you think Lowndes County is now?
- What is the MPO? What do we do?
- Know where your resources are! Commuting maps,