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Mobile Today and Tomorrow

Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.

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Mobile Today and Tomorrow

  1. 1. Mobile Communication Today and Tomorrow William H. Dutton Quello Professor of Media and Information Policy Michigan State University Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.
  2. 2. Acknowledgements: Co-Authors Ginette Law, Darja Groselj, Frank Hangler, and Gili Vidan Oxford University Consulting The Quello Center at MSU CHENG Lin; ZHI Hui; LU Xiaobin; ZHAO Qiyong, and WANG Bin Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
  3. 3. Mobile Futures Policy and Regulatory Trends Social Research Technical- Industry Developments
  4. 4. Synthesis of Research •Analysis of Global Survey Research •Longitudinal Analysis of UK OxIS Data •Qualitative Semi-Structured Interviews Field Research Approach to this Global, v Comparative, Study
  5. 5. What is Mobile Communication? Not New Pedestrian Innovative • The Titanic • 1918 experiments • Mobile Phone • Texting • Mobile Internet • Cloud Computing • Internet of Things & Wearable
  6. 6. ‘… service enabled by a wide array of electronic devices and networks across a range of locations’ • Feature Phone • Smartphone • Tablet, Reader, Laptop, Watch, … Devices: • Licensed Spectrum • Unlicensed Spectrum, Bluetooth, Whitespace, WiFi, Wired and Wireless, … • Cloud computing – data warehouses Network Infrastructures • On the Move • Car, Home, Work, Conference, …Locations
  7. 7. Mobile Device LocationNetwork Creating Growing Array of ‘Mobile Communication’ Technologies
  8. 8. Changing Ecology of Mobile Increasingly Converging Technology Increasingly Diverse Ecology
  9. 9. Use of Multiple ICTs by World Regions Global Internet Values Survery, 2012, N=8,241
  10. 10. Mutually Transformative Mobile Internet
  11. 11. Transforming the Internet Search Video Mobility •Always Available Social Media Big Data
  12. 12. Is Mobile Opening or Closing? Opening Multiple Devices Specialized Uses Closing Vertically Integrated Chain (OS, Apps) Preinstalled Apps v Open Search
  13. 13. Equalities? Closing Divides More Individuals w Phones More with Access to the Internet Creativity of Users Creating New Divides Mulitple Devices Multiple Infrastructures
  14. 14. Mobile Broadband and PC Penetration (Source: Robert Kenny, Communication Chambers, ITU Data) Canada Germany Hungary Japan Slovenia Switzerland R² = 0.4435 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 MobileBBsubsper100inhabitants,2012 PC Penetration, 2000 (% of HH)
  15. 15. Key Social Implications / Issues Increasing Centrality of Mobile: What’s Essential? Equality and Empowerment? New Normal, or Tools-Symbols of Status & Identity Social Contact and Interpersonal Communication Privacy
  16. 16. Four Future Scenarios The Seamlessly Bounded Ensemble (Ensemble) The Unified Hub (Hub) Connected Accoutrements (Accoutrements) The Exposed Device-Free Realm (Device-Free)
  17. 17. Technology in the Hands of Society • Dualities of Mobile: Together, Apart • The Open Ended, Unpredictable Future of Mobile Communication • Responses to Emerging Issues, such as Privacy – The Unpredictable Consumer-User-Producer – Potential Shifts in Policy and Regulation • Global Economic Shifts