Dr Dostal on the Ideal Future

1. World Future Society Conference
The role of the ideal future
and how to get there
© Dr Elisabeth Dostal
7 May 2010

2. challenge
we know what caused the finance crisis,
but we don’t know what to do about it
(G-20 Summit, March 2009)
we can also replace “finance crisis” with
 climate change,
 poverty,
 crime,
 terrorism,
 unemployment,
 population explosion,
 etc.
©

3. summary of my talk
we need:
(1) a worldview that can deal with complexity
systems thinking
(2) change our future course
ideal future designs
(1) new thinking about governance
stakeholder governance
©

4. (1) changing our worldview
©

5. fundamental problems with our worldview
 the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
 the problem does not contain the solution
 “more of the same” reinforces the problem
 problems have multiple causes
©

6. problems and cofactors
poverty
©

7. fundamental problems with our worldview
 the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
 problems have multiple causes
 issues are interrelated
 interrelating problems make each other worse
©

8. issues are interrelated
population climate
explosion change
health crisis
poverty
education
crisis
inadequate
infrastructure
unemploy-
ment
energy violence
shortage
©

9. fundamental problems with our worldview
 the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
 problems have multiple causes
 issues are interrelated
 interrelating problems make each other worse
 solutions in one area can give rise to problems in
another
 vicious circles

10. solutions in one area can create problems in another
e.g. solving poverty through more economic development
reinforces climate change (or energy shortages, etc.)
poverty
economic climate
development change
©

11. fundamental problems with our worldview
 the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
 problems have multiple causes
 issues are interrelated
 the current situation has momentum
 it tends to get worse over time
 we don’t notice gradual deterioration

12. current future
• momentum
• forecasting
• current future scenarios
• current logic
• gradual deterioration
current
situation current
futures
time ©

13. (2) how do we change our future course?
©

14. systems have a conceptual and physical reality
 conceptual reality in-forms
physical reality
in-forms  if the current situation is
undesirable, it indicates that
conceptual
reality
there is need for changing
conceptual reality (i.e. redesign)
physical  redesigning its conceptual reality
reality trans-forms the system
indicates
©

15. role of the ideal future
• redesign conceptual reality as an ideal future
• the ideal future represents a different (higher order) logic
• one can backcast strategies from the ideal future
• acting according to the new strategies brings about a
gradual improvement of the system towards new and
more desirable outcomes
ideal
• problems get dissolved future
backcasting
current
situation current
futures
forecasting
©

16. current versus ideal future
the future is created by default or design
default: current future
design: ideal future
either way we are responsible for our future
©

17. how do we redesign the future?
summary:
• choose a design framework
• analyse the current situation
• create an ideal design
• generate alignment around the design
• make implementation plan
• implement
• monitor results
©

18. framework: multiple levels
planet
co-factors society
institution
organisation
group
individual
cell
molecule ©

19. framework: multiple levels and dimension
psychological
technological
physiological
ecological
economic
physical
political
cultural
planet
international society X
national society X
institution
organisation X
group X X
individual X X
cell ©
etc.

20. analyse the current situation and create an ideal design
multi-level and multi-dimensional design
ideal
future
multi-level and multi-dimensional analysis
current current
situation futures
©

21. aligning stakeholders around the design
St 9
aligning stakeholders
St 8
involves design
St 1
St 2
iterations
St 3
St 7 IDEAL DESIGN St 10
St 4
St 12
St 6
St 5
St 11
©

22. implementation plan
Outcomes Based Education
1. redesign curriculum
2. new schoolbooks
3. train teachers
ideal 4. administer system
1
future 5. etc.
2
3
Primary Health Care
current
current 1. build clinics
situation futures 2. staff clinics
3. equip clinics
4. administer system
time 5. etc.
©

23. strategic plan: cascading aims in time
ideal
future
current
situation current
futures
©

24. (3) who should redesign the future and
implement the designed strategy?
©

25. current governance
government
cabinet
government
government government department
department department
private sector
private sector private sector
NGOs
NGOs NGOs
function specific strategy function specific strategy function specific strategy©

26. transversal (multi-functional) strategic design
housing
health
education
strategy
environment
employment
energy
©

27. stakeholder governance
government
cabinet
Ideal Design of a
Transversal Issue
government
government government department
department department
private sector
private sector private sector
NGOs
NGOs NGOs
function specific strategy transversal / cooperative strategy ©

28. implement the plans
 each stakeholder implements the strategies it is
responsible for
 the sum total of even seemingly insignificant
strategies dissolves the problems associated
with the transversal issue
©

29. homework
 what is your contribution
 (from your functional perspective)
 to the dissolving of our collective problems?
©