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From Technologies to MarketRECENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN
LED
MANUFACTURING
Santosh KUMAR
Senior Market &Technology
Analyst
YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT
2
• INTRODUCTIONTOYOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT AND LED ACTIVITIES
• LED MARKET OVERVIEW
• RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
• 2015 STATUS OFTHE LED INDUSTRY (AND FUTURETRENDS)
• CONCLUSION
• APPENDIX - DETAILLED PRESENTATION OFYOLE DEVELOPPEMENT AND LED ACTIVITIES
AGENDA
3
Introduction toYole
Développement and LED Activities
4
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Our 30
analysts
operate in the
following
areas.
MEMS &
Sensors
LED &
OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
PV
Power
Electronics
5
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Report collection
Already published -Yole Développement:
• Status of the LED Industry
• LED in Road and Street Lighting
• LED Front End ManufacturingTrends
• LED Front End Equipment Market trends
• GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market
• Phosphors and Quantum Dots
• LED ModuleTechnologies
From System Plus Consulting:
• LED CoSim+
• Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports
2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement :
• LED Phosphors IP Investigation
• OLED For Lighting
• Automotive Lighting
• LED Packaging
• Sapphire Market
• Thermal Management for LED and Power Electronics
• UV LED
• MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs
A collection
of more than
15 reports on
LED, OLED
and Sapphire.
Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include:
• Technology trends and evolution:costs, barriers, roadmaps (…).
• Supply & value chain analysis:business models, relationships,value flows (…).
• In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers:challenges,inflection points (…).
• Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)
6
LED Market Overview
7
Packaged LED
market
represents a
revenue of
nearly $16.5M
in 2015, it
should continue
to grow to a
size of nearly
$20.7M by
2020.
1st Cycle: LED industry growth came initially from the small display application.
2nd Cycle: LED industry was then driven forward by the LCD display application.
3rd Cycle: Starting from 2012, most companies have moved to the new “El Dorado” of the LED business: General
Lighting, which represents the killer application for LEDs.
HISTORY OF LED INDUSTRY
1st cycle
2nd cycle
3rd cycle
Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
8
UHD TV will
require more
LED (resolution,
contrast,
gamut).
Focus on Display Applications
MARKET TRENDS
• Opposing forces are driving the market in LCD backlight display applications.
• While backlight display applications are still expected to saturate in 2015, the decline will be slower than initially
anticipated.
.
Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
9
Smart lighting
will provide a
further boost
to lighting
applications.
We expect
“planned
obsolescence”
to become part
of the luminaire
maker strategy
in consumer
application.
Focus on General Lighting Applications
MARKET TRENDS
• General lighting will drive LED demand.
• Strong penetration in outdoor and architectural lighting.
• Accelerating penetration in residential lighting.
• Better prospects than initially expected for LED as replacement of fluorescent tubes.
• Better prospects than expected in industrial lighting.
• Socket saturation won’t occur as fast as initially anticipated!
Models usually assumed that because of the long lifetime of LEDs, the market will saturate once the majority of the
light sockets have been converted.But:
• Actual lifetime is not as long as initially anticipated: 20,000-25,000 hours (or less) rather than 50,000 to 100,000
hours (initially quoted by the industry).
• Smart lighting will trigger obsolescence in some markets.
• The availability of efficient, cheap and versatile light sources (LED) will increase the average consumption of
artificial light per capita.
Photo credit: Nasa
Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
10
Recent Developments in LED
Manufacturing
11
XX
Overview
LED CHIP / DEVICE / MODULE / SYSTEM MANUFACTURING
Substrate
SiC / Sapphire / Silicon / Bulk
GaN / Engineered substrates
LED epi-wafer Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED,
Vertical LED structures
LED dies-
on-wafer
LED dies
Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy
• Nucleation layer
• n-type layer
• Active layers (MQW)
• p-type layer
Back-End Level 0 - Packaging
• Substrate separation & Bonding
• Die singulation
• Testing & Binning
LED systems and applications
Front-end Level 1 - Device Production
• Inspection
• Masking / Lithography
• Etching
• Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors
Back-End level 1 - Packaging
• Die Attach & Interconnections
• Phosphors
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Testing & Binning
Packaged LEDs
Module Packaging
• Substrates (PCB)
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Heatsink
• Testing & Binning
LED modules
12
We expect
sapphire to
remain the
dominant
substrate in the
LED industry
for years to
come.
Substrate Level - Alternative to Sapphire
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
GaN-on-Si LEDs
• GaN-on-Si performance is catching up with sapphire. But the cost benefits are still not obvious.
• We would have believed that companies that are committed to the technology will eventually make it work BUT
with recent announcement of Toshiba to exit the white LED business, this statement is under questioning.
• Additionally, we are skeptical that it will deliver cost improvements vs. sapphire that would be significant enough to
trigger a massive industry platform transition from sapphire to silicon substrate.
GaN-on-GaN LEDs
• Decrease of 4” GaN substrate price closer to the US$1800 mark could be a trigger point in term of cost of
ownership to start promoting adoption of GaN-On-GaN. Companies committed to the technology will be
successful in the various niches that benefit from high lumen density.
COST =
$
LUMEN
Manufacturing Efficiency
• Higher equipment throughput and
yields
• Economy of scale
LED Performance
• Higher efficiency (lumen/W)
• More light per chip (driving current)
GaN-on-Si LEDs
→ Reduce component
cost
GaN-on-GaN LEDs
→ Improve performance
by reducing the number
of packages per System
Source: Sapphire Report- Yole Développement
13
LED industry is
facing several
challenges and
requires
development of
new devices if it
is to thrive.
Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (1/3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
• Market dynamics have changed → While the industry is still recovering, Chinese LED manufacturers’ product quality
has dramatically risen to a level where they are now real competitors to all players.
• As in several other semiconductor industries, cost reduction and performance have become main drivers for new
device development.
• Three major challenges are ahead of the LED industry regarding General Lighting market.
• The response to these challenges will determine the future of LED lighting.
Cost Challenge
Color
Consistency
Efficacy
Challenge
• Smaller chip and package
• Low cost material
• Faster process to reduce Turn Around Time (TAT)
• New Phosphor technology (film, plate….), inducing
slower process (than wafer level coating)
• Larger chip and package
• High performance/cost material
SOLUTIONS
Conflict:
• Large chips vs. small
chips.
• Low cost material vs.
High performance
material
• (…)
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
14
Focus on Cost Challenge:
• Lighting industry expects a large price decrease in LED lighting products.
• This will lead to a sharp cost increase (lm/$) of LED devices.
• New LED platform/technology have to be developed to fulfill these requirements.
Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (2/3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
Fixture
(2x2 panel)
Price reduction expected to be around “-30%”
between 2013 ($99) and 2015 ($65)
Lamp
(60W)
Price reduction expected to be around “-50%”
between 2013 ($13) and 2015 ($6.5)
To follow such expectations,
middle power LEDs should
increase lm/$ by a factor of
minimum x2 between 2013 (900
lm/$) and 2015 (2000 lm/$)
Source: Samsung
2010 2013 2015
MPL = Middle Power LED
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
15
Focus on Efficacy Challenge:
• Efficacy of LED component has increased very rapidly.
However, new technology needs to be developed to fulfill
lm/W required by industrial roadmaps.
Focus on Color Consistency:
• General Lighting applications requires good color
consistency. As of Q2-2015, all COB LED and some high-
power LED offer MacAdam 3-step as a standard, however,
this is not yet a standard for middle-power LEDs that are
increasingly used.
Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (3/3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
Source: Samsung
2010 2013 2015
Source: Samsung
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
16
Flip Chip LED
• To increase lm/W (efficacy) and decrease $/lm (cost) of LED device, Flip Chip (FC) LED have been the first solution developed
by manufacturers.
• FC LED offer efficiency equal to the one of vertical LED but at a lower cost. Also, short current path in FC LED decreases Vf
lower than that of traditional MESA LED, and thermal dissipation is better.
Chip Scale Package
• By mixing Flip Chip technology and historic evolutions / trends of semiconductor industry, Chip Scale Package (CSP) have also
emerge in the LED industry. Such type of package offer high lm/$ (package-free structure with no plastic mold…), high lm/W
(FC based platform) and tight color control (Phosphor film directly attached to flip-chip surface).
Chip & Package Level - Main Solutions Developed
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
From traditional package to Chip Scale
Package (CSP)
Source: Samsung
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
17
More and more
packaged LED
manufacturers
moving to
module level!
Module Level
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
• Packaged LED manufacturers master LED binning strategy which represent a strong competitive advantage for LED
lighting module assembly.
• Process manufacturing variability creates multiple binning of LED parameters: Color control / Flux control / VF
control.
• Good binning strategy helps to select the LEDs for:
- Reaching the product specification. - Guarantying the supportability.
- Minimizing the stocks.
• Control of LED production allows to stabilize value at module level using variable LEDs.
LED
Full Proliferation
Color, flux and voltage
specification
Substrate
(size, material, connectivity version…)
ASSEMBLY LED LINE FOR LED MODULE
Binning
Tables
Pick &
Place
Reflow Control LED Module
Source: LED Module Report - Yole Développement
18
Initially driven
by LEDification,
lighting
applications are
now subject to
Digitalization
(i.e.: Smart
Lighting).
System Level
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
Digitalization:
Follow Moore Law
 Improvement of Functionality
LEDification: Follow Haitz Law  Improvement of Performance
Source: LED Module Report - Yole Développement
19
2015 Status of the LED Industry
(and Future Trends)
20
New relays of
growth are
required for
LED
manufacturers
to survive!
Overview
2015 STATUS OFTHE LED INDUSTRY
• General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN due to strong price pressure and intense competition.
• As a consequence, most of the players of the industry are looking at new relay of growth and with
different strategies:
• Vertical integration What is beyond visible LED chip and package
Toward LED module and system levels.
• Product diversification / What is beyond visible LED.
Toward IR LED and UV LED devices.
• Activity diversification / What is beyond LED.
• Already looking at what is beyond visible LED (UV LED, IR LED…) and more globally, what is beyond
LED (Power Electronics…).
21
UV LED market
that
represented
only ~$20M in
2008 grew
to~$90M in
2014, at a
CAGR of
28.5%.
Focus on UV LED
FUTURE TRENDS
Source: UV LED Report - Yole Développement
22
Conclusion
23
LED chip (and package) manufacturing becoming more and more a commodity!
• Entry of Chinese players.
• LED reaching more and more limits in terms of performance.
General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN for LED device business!
• Strong price pressure and intense competition.
• LED manufacturers already looking at what is beyond (UV LED, LED module…).
Vertical integration as a way to collect more value on the industrial chain!
• Standard LED lighting modules represent the main answer to SSL industry needs. Such modules are a basic ‘plug and play’
component of the lighting system that allow new luminaires to be easily and rapidly introduced to the market. These modules
significantly contribute to system performance, quality and safety, and represents a growing market.
Product diversification as another way to generate revenue!
• UV LED = Short term emerging market.
• IR LED = Middle term emerging market.
• As LEDs have totally modified the lighting industry landscape (i.e.: SSL chasm), Smart Lighting could also create a revolution in
the industry!
 New components, new players, new expertise, new business models (…).
CONCLUSION
24
THANKYOU!
Contact for Additional Questions:
Pars MUKISH
Business Unit Manager
LED, OLED, Sapphire and Display
mukish@yole.fr
From Technologies to Market
Presentation of Yole
Développement
With Focus on LED,
OLED and Sapphire
Activities
Corporate Presentation
From Technologies to Market
© 2015
Yole Développement
FromTechnologies to Market
27
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Our 30
analysts
operate in the
following
areas.
MEMS &
Sensors
LED &
OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
PV
Power
Electronics
28
4 BUSINESS MODELS
o Consulting and Analysis
• Market data & research, marketing analysis
• Technology analysis
• Strategy consulting
• Reverse engineering & costing
• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
o Reports
• Market &Technology reports
• Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk
analysis
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
• Cost SimulationTool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
o Financial services
• M&A (buying and selling)
• Due diligence
• Fundraising
• Maturation of companies
• IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com
Blu Morpho
o Media
• i-Micronews.com website
• @Micronews e-newsletter
• Technology magazines
• Communication & webcast services
• Events
www.i-Micronews.com
29
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Fundraising
Maturation of companies
IP portfolio management & optimization
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
30
OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY
Yole
Japan
Yole Inc.
Yole
Korea
40% of our business is
in EU countries
30% of our business is
in North America
30% of our business is
in Asia
31
SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
Our analysts
provide
market
analysis,
technology
evaluation,
and business
plan along the
entire supply
chain.
Integrators and
end-users
Device
makers
Suppliers: material,
equipment, OSAT,
foundries…
Financial investors,
R&D centers
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
o Consulting and Specific Analysis
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development,Yole Inc.
Email: laferriere@yole.fr
• Japan:Yutaka Katano, General Manager,Yole Japan & President,Yole K.K.
Email: katano@yole.fr
• RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, President & CEO,Yole Développement
Email: eloy@yole.fr
o Report business
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development,Yole Inc.
Email: laferriere@yole.fr
• Europe: Fayçal El Khamassi, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service
Email: khamassi@yole.fr
• Japan & Asia:Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager,Yole K.K.
Email: onozawa@yole.fr
• Korea: HaileyYang, Business Development Manager, Korean Office
Email: yang@yole.fr
o Financial services
• Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President
Email: eloy@yole.fr
o General
• Email: info@yole.fr
Follow us on
© 2015
About LED, OLED and
Sapphire Activities
34
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Yole is active throughout the value chain (LED and Sapphire activities)
We are active
throughout
the value
chain: from
substrates to
systems! And
we interact
with industrial
/ R&D players
from each
level!
Substrate
SiC / Sapphire / Silicon /
Bulk GaN / Engineered
substrates
LED epi-
wafer
Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED,
Vertical LED structures
LED dies-
on-wafer
LED dies
Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy
• Nucleation layer
• n-type layer
• Active layers (MQW)
• p-type layer
Back-End Level 0 - Packaging
• Substrate separation & Bonding
• Die singulation
• Testing & Binning
LED systems and applications
Front-end Level 1 - Device Production
• Inspection
• Masking / Lithography
• Etching
• Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors
Back-End level 1 - Packaging
• Die Attach & Interconnections
• Phosphors
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Testing & Binning
Packaged LEDs
Module Packaging
• Substrates (PCB)
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Heatsink
• Testing & Binning
LED modules
35
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Insights on Forecast Methodology
“What’s Behind
the Crystal Ball?”
Only analysts
that follow the
industry on a
daily basis
(trough
interviews and
developed
market modeling
tools based on
discussions with
key players of
the industry.
APPLICATION
Forecast of standard
product market volume
(unit)
Ex.: Smartphone, TVs, lamps (…)
Definition of functions using
LEDs
Ex.: “Flash vs. Keypad” for
smartphone (…)
Definition of technical
requirements
Ex.: Efficacy, size (…)
Definition of LED
penetration rate and
competitiveness with
alternative technologies
Ex.: “OLED vs. LED” in smartphone
(…)
Forecast of LED market volume (unit)
Split by application, power type (low vs. medium vs. high
power), package type (single vs. multi-die…) (… )
Definition of LED
ASP
Per power type, packaged
type (…)
Forecast of LED market size ($)
Split by application, power type, package type
(… )
Definition of manufacturing flows for
front-end and packaging (process,
technologies, materials, yields…)
Split by application, power type, package type (…)
Forecast of LED manufacturing
equipment and material markets
(unit and $)
Ex.: Phosphors, encapsulant, dicing equipment
Definition of LED die
surface (mm²)
Definition of substrate die surface (mm²)
and epiwafer volume (unit)
Split by type of substrate (…)
Forecast of LED substrate
markets (unit and $)
Split by type of substrate (…)
Definition of sale
levels of key
manufacturers ($)
Ex: LED, packaging
materials, epitaxy
materials, manufacturing
equipment, MOCVD
reactor, substrate (…)
System Plus Consulting
expertise in reverse
costing / reverse
engineering
36
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
AboutYole’s AnalystTeam
A team based
on persons
having
complementary
skills and
expertise.
Dr. Hong LIN - Market &Technology Analyst
Hong LIN holds a Ph-D in Physics and Chemistry of Materials from the University Pierre et Marie Curie (France). She
works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Compound Semiconductors, Power Electronic and LED. She is also
responsible for investigation on China as being fluent in Chinese. Before joining Yole Développement, she has worked as R&D
Engineer (at Newstep Technologies SAS - France) and research scientist (at ONERA - French Aerospace lab).
Pars MUKISH - Business Unit Manager
Pars MUKISH holds a master degree in Materials Science & Polymers (ITECH - France) and a master degree in Innovation
& Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). Since 2015, Pars MUKISH has taken on responsibility for developing LED,
OLED and Sapphire activities as Business Unit Manager at Yole Développement. Previously, he has worked as Marketing
Analyst and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years at the CEA (French Research Center).
Dr. EricVIREY - Senior Market &Technology Analyst
Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He
works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Sapphire and LED. In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D,
engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain
Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic products.
Dr. Milan ROSINA - Senior Market &Technology Analyst
Milan ROSINA holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He
works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Energy Conversion, LED / OLED and Emerging Materials. Before
joining Yole Développement, he has worked as research scientist and project manager in PV, microelectronics and LED
industries. He has more than 15 year experience with prominent research institutions and a utility company.
37
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Report collection
Already published -Yole Développement:
• Status of the LED Industry
• LED in Road and Street Lighting
• LED Front End ManufacturingTrends
• LED Front End Equipment Market trends
• GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market
• Phosphors and Quantum Dots
• LED ModuleTechnologies
From System Plus Consulting:
• LED CoSim+
• Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports
2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement :
• LED Phosphors IP Investigation
• OLED For Lighting
• Automotive Lighting
• LED Packaging
• Sapphire Market
• Thermal Management for LED and Power Electronics
• UV LED
• MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs
A collection
of more than
15 reports on
LED, OLED
and Sapphire.
Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include:
• Technology trends and evolution:costs, barriers, roadmaps (…).
• Supply & value chain analysis:business models, relationships,value flows (…).
• In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers:challenges,inflection points (…).
• Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)

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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING 2016 Presentation by Santosh KUMAR of Yole Developpement at LED Korea conference

  • 1. From Technologies to MarketRECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING Santosh KUMAR Senior Market &Technology Analyst YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT
  • 2. 2 • INTRODUCTIONTOYOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT AND LED ACTIVITIES • LED MARKET OVERVIEW • RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING • 2015 STATUS OFTHE LED INDUSTRY (AND FUTURETRENDS) • CONCLUSION • APPENDIX - DETAILLED PRESENTATION OFYOLE DEVELOPPEMENT AND LED ACTIVITIES AGENDA
  • 4. 4 FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Our 30 analysts operate in the following areas. MEMS & Sensors LED & OLED Compound Semi. Imaging Photonics MedTech Manufacturing Advanced Packaging PV Power Electronics
  • 5. 5 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Report collection Already published -Yole Développement: • Status of the LED Industry • LED in Road and Street Lighting • LED Front End ManufacturingTrends • LED Front End Equipment Market trends • GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market • Phosphors and Quantum Dots • LED ModuleTechnologies From System Plus Consulting: • LED CoSim+ • Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports 2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement : • LED Phosphors IP Investigation • OLED For Lighting • Automotive Lighting • LED Packaging • Sapphire Market • Thermal Management for LED and Power Electronics • UV LED • MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs A collection of more than 15 reports on LED, OLED and Sapphire. Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include: • Technology trends and evolution:costs, barriers, roadmaps (…). • Supply & value chain analysis:business models, relationships,value flows (…). • In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers:challenges,inflection points (…). • Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)
  • 7. 7 Packaged LED market represents a revenue of nearly $16.5M in 2015, it should continue to grow to a size of nearly $20.7M by 2020. 1st Cycle: LED industry growth came initially from the small display application. 2nd Cycle: LED industry was then driven forward by the LCD display application. 3rd Cycle: Starting from 2012, most companies have moved to the new “El Dorado” of the LED business: General Lighting, which represents the killer application for LEDs. HISTORY OF LED INDUSTRY 1st cycle 2nd cycle 3rd cycle Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
  • 8. 8 UHD TV will require more LED (resolution, contrast, gamut). Focus on Display Applications MARKET TRENDS • Opposing forces are driving the market in LCD backlight display applications. • While backlight display applications are still expected to saturate in 2015, the decline will be slower than initially anticipated. . Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
  • 9. 9 Smart lighting will provide a further boost to lighting applications. We expect “planned obsolescence” to become part of the luminaire maker strategy in consumer application. Focus on General Lighting Applications MARKET TRENDS • General lighting will drive LED demand. • Strong penetration in outdoor and architectural lighting. • Accelerating penetration in residential lighting. • Better prospects than initially expected for LED as replacement of fluorescent tubes. • Better prospects than expected in industrial lighting. • Socket saturation won’t occur as fast as initially anticipated! Models usually assumed that because of the long lifetime of LEDs, the market will saturate once the majority of the light sockets have been converted.But: • Actual lifetime is not as long as initially anticipated: 20,000-25,000 hours (or less) rather than 50,000 to 100,000 hours (initially quoted by the industry). • Smart lighting will trigger obsolescence in some markets. • The availability of efficient, cheap and versatile light sources (LED) will increase the average consumption of artificial light per capita. Photo credit: Nasa Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
  • 10. 10 Recent Developments in LED Manufacturing
  • 11. 11 XX Overview LED CHIP / DEVICE / MODULE / SYSTEM MANUFACTURING Substrate SiC / Sapphire / Silicon / Bulk GaN / Engineered substrates LED epi-wafer Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED, Vertical LED structures LED dies- on-wafer LED dies Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy • Nucleation layer • n-type layer • Active layers (MQW) • p-type layer Back-End Level 0 - Packaging • Substrate separation & Bonding • Die singulation • Testing & Binning LED systems and applications Front-end Level 1 - Device Production • Inspection • Masking / Lithography • Etching • Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors Back-End level 1 - Packaging • Die Attach & Interconnections • Phosphors • Encapsulation & Optics • Testing & Binning Packaged LEDs Module Packaging • Substrates (PCB) • Encapsulation & Optics • Heatsink • Testing & Binning LED modules
  • 12. 12 We expect sapphire to remain the dominant substrate in the LED industry for years to come. Substrate Level - Alternative to Sapphire RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING GaN-on-Si LEDs • GaN-on-Si performance is catching up with sapphire. But the cost benefits are still not obvious. • We would have believed that companies that are committed to the technology will eventually make it work BUT with recent announcement of Toshiba to exit the white LED business, this statement is under questioning. • Additionally, we are skeptical that it will deliver cost improvements vs. sapphire that would be significant enough to trigger a massive industry platform transition from sapphire to silicon substrate. GaN-on-GaN LEDs • Decrease of 4” GaN substrate price closer to the US$1800 mark could be a trigger point in term of cost of ownership to start promoting adoption of GaN-On-GaN. Companies committed to the technology will be successful in the various niches that benefit from high lumen density. COST = $ LUMEN Manufacturing Efficiency • Higher equipment throughput and yields • Economy of scale LED Performance • Higher efficiency (lumen/W) • More light per chip (driving current) GaN-on-Si LEDs → Reduce component cost GaN-on-GaN LEDs → Improve performance by reducing the number of packages per System Source: Sapphire Report- Yole Développement
  • 13. 13 LED industry is facing several challenges and requires development of new devices if it is to thrive. Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (1/3) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING • Market dynamics have changed → While the industry is still recovering, Chinese LED manufacturers’ product quality has dramatically risen to a level where they are now real competitors to all players. • As in several other semiconductor industries, cost reduction and performance have become main drivers for new device development. • Three major challenges are ahead of the LED industry regarding General Lighting market. • The response to these challenges will determine the future of LED lighting. Cost Challenge Color Consistency Efficacy Challenge • Smaller chip and package • Low cost material • Faster process to reduce Turn Around Time (TAT) • New Phosphor technology (film, plate….), inducing slower process (than wafer level coating) • Larger chip and package • High performance/cost material SOLUTIONS Conflict: • Large chips vs. small chips. • Low cost material vs. High performance material • (…) Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
  • 14. 14 Focus on Cost Challenge: • Lighting industry expects a large price decrease in LED lighting products. • This will lead to a sharp cost increase (lm/$) of LED devices. • New LED platform/technology have to be developed to fulfill these requirements. Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (2/3) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING Fixture (2x2 panel) Price reduction expected to be around “-30%” between 2013 ($99) and 2015 ($65) Lamp (60W) Price reduction expected to be around “-50%” between 2013 ($13) and 2015 ($6.5) To follow such expectations, middle power LEDs should increase lm/$ by a factor of minimum x2 between 2013 (900 lm/$) and 2015 (2000 lm/$) Source: Samsung 2010 2013 2015 MPL = Middle Power LED Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
  • 15. 15 Focus on Efficacy Challenge: • Efficacy of LED component has increased very rapidly. However, new technology needs to be developed to fulfill lm/W required by industrial roadmaps. Focus on Color Consistency: • General Lighting applications requires good color consistency. As of Q2-2015, all COB LED and some high- power LED offer MacAdam 3-step as a standard, however, this is not yet a standard for middle-power LEDs that are increasingly used. Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (3/3) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING Source: Samsung 2010 2013 2015 Source: Samsung Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
  • 16. 16 Flip Chip LED • To increase lm/W (efficacy) and decrease $/lm (cost) of LED device, Flip Chip (FC) LED have been the first solution developed by manufacturers. • FC LED offer efficiency equal to the one of vertical LED but at a lower cost. Also, short current path in FC LED decreases Vf lower than that of traditional MESA LED, and thermal dissipation is better. Chip Scale Package • By mixing Flip Chip technology and historic evolutions / trends of semiconductor industry, Chip Scale Package (CSP) have also emerge in the LED industry. Such type of package offer high lm/$ (package-free structure with no plastic mold…), high lm/W (FC based platform) and tight color control (Phosphor film directly attached to flip-chip surface). Chip & Package Level - Main Solutions Developed RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING From traditional package to Chip Scale Package (CSP) Source: Samsung Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
  • 17. 17 More and more packaged LED manufacturers moving to module level! Module Level RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING • Packaged LED manufacturers master LED binning strategy which represent a strong competitive advantage for LED lighting module assembly. • Process manufacturing variability creates multiple binning of LED parameters: Color control / Flux control / VF control. • Good binning strategy helps to select the LEDs for: - Reaching the product specification. - Guarantying the supportability. - Minimizing the stocks. • Control of LED production allows to stabilize value at module level using variable LEDs. LED Full Proliferation Color, flux and voltage specification Substrate (size, material, connectivity version…) ASSEMBLY LED LINE FOR LED MODULE Binning Tables Pick & Place Reflow Control LED Module Source: LED Module Report - Yole Développement
  • 18. 18 Initially driven by LEDification, lighting applications are now subject to Digitalization (i.e.: Smart Lighting). System Level RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING Digitalization: Follow Moore Law  Improvement of Functionality LEDification: Follow Haitz Law  Improvement of Performance Source: LED Module Report - Yole Développement
  • 19. 19 2015 Status of the LED Industry (and Future Trends)
  • 20. 20 New relays of growth are required for LED manufacturers to survive! Overview 2015 STATUS OFTHE LED INDUSTRY • General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN due to strong price pressure and intense competition. • As a consequence, most of the players of the industry are looking at new relay of growth and with different strategies: • Vertical integration What is beyond visible LED chip and package Toward LED module and system levels. • Product diversification / What is beyond visible LED. Toward IR LED and UV LED devices. • Activity diversification / What is beyond LED. • Already looking at what is beyond visible LED (UV LED, IR LED…) and more globally, what is beyond LED (Power Electronics…).
  • 21. 21 UV LED market that represented only ~$20M in 2008 grew to~$90M in 2014, at a CAGR of 28.5%. Focus on UV LED FUTURE TRENDS Source: UV LED Report - Yole Développement
  • 23. 23 LED chip (and package) manufacturing becoming more and more a commodity! • Entry of Chinese players. • LED reaching more and more limits in terms of performance. General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN for LED device business! • Strong price pressure and intense competition. • LED manufacturers already looking at what is beyond (UV LED, LED module…). Vertical integration as a way to collect more value on the industrial chain! • Standard LED lighting modules represent the main answer to SSL industry needs. Such modules are a basic ‘plug and play’ component of the lighting system that allow new luminaires to be easily and rapidly introduced to the market. These modules significantly contribute to system performance, quality and safety, and represents a growing market. Product diversification as another way to generate revenue! • UV LED = Short term emerging market. • IR LED = Middle term emerging market. • As LEDs have totally modified the lighting industry landscape (i.e.: SSL chasm), Smart Lighting could also create a revolution in the industry!  New components, new players, new expertise, new business models (…). CONCLUSION
  • 24. 24 THANKYOU! Contact for Additional Questions: Pars MUKISH Business Unit Manager LED, OLED, Sapphire and Display mukish@yole.fr
  • 25. From Technologies to Market Presentation of Yole Développement With Focus on LED, OLED and Sapphire Activities Corporate Presentation From Technologies to Market
  • 27. 27 FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Our 30 analysts operate in the following areas. MEMS & Sensors LED & OLED Compound Semi. Imaging Photonics MedTech Manufacturing Advanced Packaging PV Power Electronics
  • 28. 28 4 BUSINESS MODELS o Consulting and Analysis • Market data & research, marketing analysis • Technology analysis • Strategy consulting • Reverse engineering & costing • Patent analysis www.yole.fr o Reports • Market &Technology reports • Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis • Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis • Cost SimulationTool www.i-Micronews.com/reports o Financial services • M&A (buying and selling) • Due diligence • Fundraising • Maturation of companies • IP portfolio management & optimization www.yolefinance.com Blu Morpho o Media • i-Micronews.com website • @Micronews e-newsletter • Technology magazines • Communication & webcast services • Events www.i-Micronews.com
  • 29. 29 A GROUP OF COMPANIES Market, technology and strategy consulting www.yole.fr M&A operations Due diligences www.yolefinance.com Fundraising Maturation of companies IP portfolio management & optimization www.bmorpho.com Manufacturing costs analysis Teardown and reverse engineering Cost simulation tools www.systemplus.fr IP analysis Patent assessment www.knowmade.fr
  • 30. 30 OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY Yole Japan Yole Inc. Yole Korea 40% of our business is in EU countries 30% of our business is in North America 30% of our business is in Asia
  • 31. 31 SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN Our analysts provide market analysis, technology evaluation, and business plan along the entire supply chain. Integrators and end-users Device makers Suppliers: material, equipment, OSAT, foundries… Financial investors, R&D centers
  • 32. 32 CONTACT INFORMATION o Consulting and Specific Analysis • North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development,Yole Inc. Email: laferriere@yole.fr • Japan:Yutaka Katano, General Manager,Yole Japan & President,Yole K.K. Email: katano@yole.fr • RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, President & CEO,Yole Développement Email: eloy@yole.fr o Report business • North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development,Yole Inc. Email: laferriere@yole.fr • Europe: Fayçal El Khamassi, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service Email: khamassi@yole.fr • Japan & Asia:Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager,Yole K.K. Email: onozawa@yole.fr • Korea: HaileyYang, Business Development Manager, Korean Office Email: yang@yole.fr o Financial services • Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President Email: eloy@yole.fr o General • Email: info@yole.fr Follow us on
  • 33. © 2015 About LED, OLED and Sapphire Activities
  • 34. 34 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Yole is active throughout the value chain (LED and Sapphire activities) We are active throughout the value chain: from substrates to systems! And we interact with industrial / R&D players from each level! Substrate SiC / Sapphire / Silicon / Bulk GaN / Engineered substrates LED epi- wafer Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED, Vertical LED structures LED dies- on-wafer LED dies Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy • Nucleation layer • n-type layer • Active layers (MQW) • p-type layer Back-End Level 0 - Packaging • Substrate separation & Bonding • Die singulation • Testing & Binning LED systems and applications Front-end Level 1 - Device Production • Inspection • Masking / Lithography • Etching • Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors Back-End level 1 - Packaging • Die Attach & Interconnections • Phosphors • Encapsulation & Optics • Testing & Binning Packaged LEDs Module Packaging • Substrates (PCB) • Encapsulation & Optics • Heatsink • Testing & Binning LED modules
  • 35. 35 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Insights on Forecast Methodology “What’s Behind the Crystal Ball?” Only analysts that follow the industry on a daily basis (trough interviews and developed market modeling tools based on discussions with key players of the industry. APPLICATION Forecast of standard product market volume (unit) Ex.: Smartphone, TVs, lamps (…) Definition of functions using LEDs Ex.: “Flash vs. Keypad” for smartphone (…) Definition of technical requirements Ex.: Efficacy, size (…) Definition of LED penetration rate and competitiveness with alternative technologies Ex.: “OLED vs. LED” in smartphone (…) Forecast of LED market volume (unit) Split by application, power type (low vs. medium vs. high power), package type (single vs. multi-die…) (… ) Definition of LED ASP Per power type, packaged type (…) Forecast of LED market size ($) Split by application, power type, package type (… ) Definition of manufacturing flows for front-end and packaging (process, technologies, materials, yields…) Split by application, power type, package type (…) Forecast of LED manufacturing equipment and material markets (unit and $) Ex.: Phosphors, encapsulant, dicing equipment Definition of LED die surface (mm²) Definition of substrate die surface (mm²) and epiwafer volume (unit) Split by type of substrate (…) Forecast of LED substrate markets (unit and $) Split by type of substrate (…) Definition of sale levels of key manufacturers ($) Ex: LED, packaging materials, epitaxy materials, manufacturing equipment, MOCVD reactor, substrate (…) System Plus Consulting expertise in reverse costing / reverse engineering
  • 36. 36 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES AboutYole’s AnalystTeam A team based on persons having complementary skills and expertise. Dr. Hong LIN - Market &Technology Analyst Hong LIN holds a Ph-D in Physics and Chemistry of Materials from the University Pierre et Marie Curie (France). She works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Compound Semiconductors, Power Electronic and LED. She is also responsible for investigation on China as being fluent in Chinese. Before joining Yole Développement, she has worked as R&D Engineer (at Newstep Technologies SAS - France) and research scientist (at ONERA - French Aerospace lab). Pars MUKISH - Business Unit Manager Pars MUKISH holds a master degree in Materials Science & Polymers (ITECH - France) and a master degree in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). Since 2015, Pars MUKISH has taken on responsibility for developing LED, OLED and Sapphire activities as Business Unit Manager at Yole Développement. Previously, he has worked as Marketing Analyst and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years at the CEA (French Research Center). Dr. EricVIREY - Senior Market &Technology Analyst Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Sapphire and LED. In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic products. Dr. Milan ROSINA - Senior Market &Technology Analyst Milan ROSINA holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Energy Conversion, LED / OLED and Emerging Materials. Before joining Yole Développement, he has worked as research scientist and project manager in PV, microelectronics and LED industries. He has more than 15 year experience with prominent research institutions and a utility company.
  • 37. 37 FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES Report collection Already published -Yole Développement: • Status of the LED Industry • LED in Road and Street Lighting • LED Front End ManufacturingTrends • LED Front End Equipment Market trends • GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market • Phosphors and Quantum Dots • LED ModuleTechnologies From System Plus Consulting: • LED CoSim+ • Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports 2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement : • LED Phosphors IP Investigation • OLED For Lighting • Automotive Lighting • LED Packaging • Sapphire Market • Thermal Management for LED and Power Electronics • UV LED • MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs A collection of more than 15 reports on LED, OLED and Sapphire. Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include: • Technology trends and evolution:costs, barriers, roadmaps (…). • Supply & value chain analysis:business models, relationships,value flows (…). • In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers:challenges,inflection points (…). • Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)