Increasing the probability of a positive outcome

1. Increasing the probability of a positive outcome
Predictive
Performance Analytics

2. The Performance Management Challenge
58% of organizations rate their
performance as Grade C or below
Only 8% of companies report that
their performance programmes
prove high levels of value
Only 6% of executives said their
performance management process
was an effective use of time
58%8%
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)
)
)
)
)
)
)
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feel comfortable having difficult
performance conversations
managers
Only 2 10
6%

3. A Shift in Perspective
)
Um...good luck.
You’ ll probably
make it. I’m almost
fairly certain.
)
I’m confident you
can get there now
that we know what
it’ll take.
Performance management is about
understanding what it will take to achieve
the goals and then equipping and supporting
the person to achieve them
Performance MeasurementPerformance measurement focuses on setting,
measuring and incentivising goals, without taking
into account the person’s ability to achieve them
From performance measurement to performance management
Performance measurement Performance management

4. Your Role as a Manager
In order for a performance process to
improve performance you need to:
)
A+D-
A+
Understand Identify SupportEquip
What is required
to get there
What might cause the
person to fail
The person with the
resources to achieve their
goals
The person with the skills and
resources for success
D-

5. The result...
92% of employees agree that corrective
feedback, if delivered correctly, is effective at
improving performance
92%

6. The Current Performance Paradigm
Metrics are important for managing performance:
“If we can measure it, we can manage it’
Metrics need to be SMART
The less ambiguous a metric, the better it is
Metrics should be task specific
Measurement needs to be directly related to the context
of the job

7. The performance
management challenge
These paradigms are valid when the purpose is to:
Motivate
Reward people for the accomplishment
of a specific goal or outcome
Communicate
Tell people specifically how and where
to focus their energy and effort

8. An additional
performance paradigm
These paradigms are NOT valid if the purpose is to:
Diagnose
Understand why someone
is not achieving a specific goal
Predict
Determine the likelihood that
someone will successfully achieve a goal

9. Note:
The new approach is not a substitute for
the current performance paradigm, it is an
additional perspective for increasing the
probability of a successful outcome.

10. Using both
performance paradigms
Ssjsijnfnsdjvn
Communicate
Score more goals than the
other team
Motivate
$1 million per player
Diagnose
What dimension/s of performance are
required for success? e.g. the ability of the
captain to motivate the team when down
Predict
What is the likelihood that this will
happen? i.e. does the captain have the
ability to motivate others?
Situation: Performance manage your country’s soccer team to win the next World Cup

11. 1 slight change
Communicate
Score more goals than the other team
Score an average of 2 goals per game

12. When the current paradigm fails
• Individual performance is more important that team performance
• Failure to score 2 goals in one game (against a tough team) can
be compensated for by scoring more goals in another game (against an easier team)
• It doesn’t matter if the other teams score 3 goals each game, as long as you score an
average of two.
• Making enough money to pay the $1,000,000 is not my problem.
• I have no interest in whether anyone else gets a bonus, and therefore they will have no
interest in me achieving mine.
• If I score an average of1.8 goals per game, I still want some bonus, and if I average 2.5,
I want a bigger bonus, regardless of how we perform in the league.
What will this communicate and how will it motivate?
Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

13. Why the old paradigm gets in the way
While this is partly true, it relies on “managing” after the fact, i.e. only when the
person is off target, or has missed the target, which may be12 months later,
can you act.
The new paradigm relies on predicting what factors may cause the person to
miss the target before they even start trying to achieve it.
You can then proactively allocate, or re-allocate, resources to prevent failure
and support success.
Metrics are important for managing performance:
“If we can measure it, we can manage it’

14. Why the old paradigm gets in the way
Once again, this is useful if the task or outcome is not particularly complex, i.e. it does not rely
on the co-operation of, or collaboration with other people or functions; it is achievable in the
short term; the environment doesn’t require constant adaptation to changing conditions etc.
The new paradigm deals with dimensions of performance, e.g. the quality of the work a team
produces; the ability of a person to deliver (any result) on time; the ability of a group to
innovate (when the specific outcome is undefined).
Most work takes place in a changing, ambiguous, undefined context. By being able to focus
on the dimension of performance, the specific outcome can adapt to the specific context.
“Metrics need to be SMART”
The less ambiguous a metric, the better it is
Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

15. Why the old paradigm gets in the way
Although specific goals may change as targets shift, new projects are rolled out, processes
change and people move, research has shown that performance against a specific dimension,
e.g. on-time delivery remains relatively constant.
The new paradigm recognizes that if time management, priority setting and technical
proficiency are not strengths of a particular individual, they will consistently struggle to deliver
on time, regardless of whether it is a new project, a new process or a new team (unless the
team are able to compensate for the weaknesses).
In other words, the likelihood that someone with a certain behavioral profile will change their
behavior, and therefore have a different performance outcome, is limited.
“Metrics should be task specific”
Measurement needs to be directly related to the context of the job
Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

16. What we know from research
There are certain generic predictors of performance:
• Energy and drive (achievement orientation)
• Conscientiousness (big 5 personality factor)
• Social awareness (Emotional Intelligence)
• Functional competence (Technical proficiency)
Job specific/contextual requirements
• Extraversion (Sales)
• Agreeableness (customer service)
• Conscientiousness (Engineering)
• Emotional stability (call centers)
• Openness to new experiences (creativity/innovation)
Can we expand these dimensions to predict the
probability that an individual will successfully achieve a
given performance outcome based on the role they are
required to play?

17. How a performance
issue is described
When managers see a performance problem for
an individual contributor, they may often describe
it like this:
• Low personal motivation/Lack of drive
• Negative attitude/Lack of willingness
• Lack of initiative/proactivity
• Lack of technical competence/ability
• Lack of autonomy/Inability to work independently
• Poor quality of work/output
• Low personal productivity/ Poor use of time
• Inconsistent delivery/Lack of reliability
• Lack of responsiveness/Slow reaction time
• Lack of teamwork/collaboration
• Poor customer service level
There is a direct correlation between these
observed performance dimensions and the
behavioral characteristics of the individual.

18. Observed behavior: Poor quality of work/output
Identifying the underlying cause
Bright
Demonstrates
good judgment
Detail-orientated
Improves processes
Technically competent
Has difficulty grasping complex concepts or ideas, over simplifies
them and lacks the necessary depth of understanding
Shows poor judgment and does not anticipate the consequences
of decisions, or has taken wrong decisions previously
Appears disorganized and lacks attention to detail
Overlooks or appears to be disinterested in opportunities to
improve work processes
Lacks critical functional and technical knowledge and skills to do
the work
Diagnose and predict
Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

19. Performance dimensions for individuals
1) Delivering high levels of customer service
Delivering a high level of customer service requires people
to build and manage relationships with customers, always
keeping the customer's needs in mind. This requires a
willingness to actively engage with people as well as using
diplomacy to manage any potential conflict. People who
excel at customer service are great listeners and make the
customer feel that they are working for them.
2) Working well with others
People who are approachable, collaborative and care about
relationships are much easier to work with than those who
don't. Almost all jobs require the help and co-operation of
other people in order to be successful.
3) Personal motivation and drive
High levels of personal motivation and drive increase the
discretionary effort that a person is willing to make. High
performance requires high levels of person energy, and if this
drive is not there, it is difficult to achieve performance targets.
4) Producing high quality work/output
To produce high quality work you need to pay attention to
the detail, reduce the number of errors in the work you do
and meet prescribed quality standards. This means constantly
learning from experience and becoming more competent at
your job.
5) Consistently delivering work on time
Delivering work on time requires planning and good time
management. People who have a high level of personal
responsibility are also more conscientious and make sure they
deliver on promises.
6) Being responsive and reacting quickly
Being responsive requires a degree of flexibility which allows
you to re-prioritize tasks so that you can react quickly to
changing needs. It also requires a sense of urgency and a
commitment to do more than only what is required.
7) Working independently
The more direction a manager has to provide to someone in
order to get there job done, the more time and effort it
requires from that manager. The better you know you job, the
more independently you can operate and this is a quality that
managers value in high performers.
8) Taking initiative
Opportunities will always arise to do things more effectively,
and these opportunities cannot be captured in a job
description or list of tasks. Seeing, and taking these
opportunities means having a problem solving mindset and
requires a willingness to take calculated risks that could lead to
better ways of doing things.
Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

20. Performance dimensions for individuals (Exercise)
What this looks like
Describe what the performance
dimension would look like in the job context.
Rating
Rate1-5
Dimensions
Identify the 3 most important
performance dimensions for this person’s job.
1 - Well below expectations
2 - Below expectations
3 - Met expectations
4 - Above expectations
5 - Well above expectations
1) Delivering high levels of customer service
2) Working well with others
3) Personal motivation and drive
4) Producing high quality work/output
5) Consistently delivering work on time
6) Being responsive and reacting quickly
7) Working independently
8) Taking initiativev
1
2
3
Overall Rating (1+2+3)/15) x 5

21. Performance dimensions for managers
1) Increase levels of motivation in my team
Creating high levels of energy in a team requires high
levels of personal energy because most people will copy
what they see. Understanding and being able to apply
different motivational techniques that reward and recognize
contributions and unify people is important to get the best
out of a team. People will also contribute more discretionary
effort to a task if they feel appreciated and connect with the
person they work for.
2) Get access to resources (people/money/time)
Getting access to resources as a manager is competitive,
because resources are limited and whatever you get,
someone else loses. In order to secure the resource you will
need, you first have to know where to find them, who to speak
to and how to negotiate. Once you have the resources you
need, you need to prioritize and decide when, how and to
who you will distribute those resources to be most effective.
Making the most of the resources you have requires a
practical and resourceful mind.
3) Deliver against tight deadlines
To consistently deliver on time requires a team that
knows what they have to do and when they have to have to
do it. Empowering that team to deliver and then monitoring
progress ensures that the work is done through others, but
there are no surprises. There will inevitably be a time that
critical tasks are not done on time, at times like that quick
and decisive action is needed to confront non-performance.
Constant time pressure also means continuous high levels
of energy and determination in the face of adversity.
4) Stay customer/market focused
To be customer focused or market aware requires information
about customers and markets. Data can be a powerful tool
for analysing market forces and customer trends, but social
contacts are critical in order to get qualitative insight and
identify leading indicators of change. This information needs
to be understood in the bigger context of your business, and
new connections should be made as early as possible, which
requires keeping an open-mind.
5) Compliance to policies and procedures
Ensuring compliance to documented policies and
procedures requires a high level of conscientiousness and
detail orientation.
Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

22. 6) Generate innovative solutions from my team
Managing innovation in a team doesn't necessarily require you
to come up with the ideas, but it is important to have an open
mind to what is different. Innovation should focus on fixing a
particular problem in a new way that makes things easier,
faster, cheaper or better. Deciding on which ideas to invest in
and test means having a good sense of judgment which
combines analysis and intuition.
7) Work with other functions to achieve a common goal
There is a natural tension between functions in a business
which often results in a conflict of interests and competition
for resources. The ability to manage this conflict constructively
and reach win-win agreements is a critical part of building a
strong business.
8) Improve the quality of my teams output
Once people have a clear sense of what they need to do and
by when it needs to be done, the quality of team output is
driven by two forces. A pull force that encourages and
motivates people to achieve high standards, and a push force
that sanctions or holds people accountable for poor quality.
9) Set a clear direction for my team
Setting direction means understanding the big picture and
how all the pieces fit together so that you can simplify and
communicate individual responsibilities and accountability to
those involved. People need clarity of purpose and should
also feel empowered with the authority and resources to
achieve the goals that are set.
Performance dimensions for managers

23. Performance dimensions for manager (Exercise)
What this looks like
Describe what the performance
dimension would look like in the job context.
Rating
Rate1-5
Dimensions
Identify the 3 most important
performance dimensions for this person’s job.
1 - Well below expectations
2 - Below expectations
3 - Met expectations
4 - Above expectations
5 - Well above expectations
1) Increase levels of motivation in my team
2) Get access to resources (people/money/time)
3) Deliver against tight deadlines
4) Stay customer/market focused
5) Compliance to policies and procedures
6) Generate innovative solutions from my team
7) Work with other functions to achieve a common goal
8) Improve the quality of my teams output
9) Set a clear direction for my team
1
2
3
Overall Rating (1+2+3)/15) x 5

24. Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016
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25. The new performance paradigm
does not replace the current one that is
“metric-centric”, it compliments it.
The new paradigm is future-focused
and creates the ability for diagnosis (why
something happens) and prediction (what
will most likely happen).
The new paradigm works with dimensions
of performance, rather than with specific
targets and goals, which more closely aligns
with the need for people and companies to
adapt to changing conditions.
The new paradigm correlates behavior
with the ability to achieve a particular
performance outcome when someone
is acting in a specific role.
The new paradigm recognizes that
behavioral change can be difficult and take
a long time to occur. A person’s ability to
achieve a performance outcome that is
dependent on their strengths is significantly
better than their ability to achieve an
outcome that depends on their
weaknesses.
The purpose of the new paradigm is to
increase the probability of a successful
outcome by identifying the possible causes
of failure ahead of time and taking steps to
minimize or neutralize them.
Summary
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Copyright PeopleTree Group 2016

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