ABCs Of Project Time Management Planning Slides
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My presentation slides for a technical dinner presentation I delivered for the PMI\'s Arabian Gulf Chapter in Al-Khobar, KSA, on June 21, 2010. Yousef Abugosh, PMP
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ABCs Of Project Time Management Planning Slides
- 1. ABCsof Project Time Management Planning Yousef Abugosh, PMP Section Head of Training - Sipchem Industrial Jubail, KSA A technical Dinner Lecture at the PMI-AGC / Sunset Beach-Al-Khobar, KSA – June 21, 2010
- 2. The Bull Survey (1998) In 1998, A French computer manufacturer and systems integrator requested an independent research company, Spikes Cavell to conduct a survey in the UK to identify the major causes of IT project failure in the finance sector. Projects Failure
- 4. Reminders Project TEMPORARY ENDEAVOR UNDERTAKEN TO CREATE A UNIQUE PRODUCT OR SERVICE. Project Management THE APPLICATION OF KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS, TOOLS, AND TECHNIQUES TO PROJECT ACTIVITIES TO MEET PROJECT REQUIREMENTS.
- 6. Projects progress quickly until they become 90% complete, then they remain at 90% complete forever.
- 7. A carelessly planned project will take three times longer to complete than expected, but a carefully planned project may take only twice as long. Project Planning and Implementation. by Abraham Shtub, Jonathan F. Bard, and Shlomo Globerson Copyright © 1994 by Prentice-Hall, Inc.
- 13. THE SCHEDULE & THE NETWORK DIAGRAM1
- 14. Project Time Management Components 1- Initiating 2- Planning 3- Executing 4- Monitor & Control 5- Closing Time Management 2
- 15. Project Time Management Steps 1 2 3 4 3
- 16. Developing Project Schedule Scope Management Steps 1- Create the WBS 2- Define Activities 3- Sequence Activities 4- Estimate Resources Time Management 5- Estimate Activities Durations 6- Develop the Schedule 8
- 17. Developing Project Schedule Scope Management Steps 1- Create the WBS 2- Define Activities 3- Sequence Activities 4- Estimate Resources Time Management 5- Estimate Activities Durations 6- Develop the Schedule 9
- 18. The Work Breakdown Structure“WBS” The WBS Definition (PMI) “A deliverable-oriented hierarchical decomposition of the work to be executed by the project team to accomplish the project objectives and create the project deliverables” 10
- 20. Resources (individuals or parts of the performing organization) are assigned at the work package level.16
- 21. The Work Breakdown Structure“WBS” 24
- 22. Developing Project Schedule Scope Management Steps 1- Create the WBS 2- Define Activities 3- Sequence Activities 4- Estimate Resources Time Management 5- Estimate Activities Durations 6- Develop the Schedule 34
- 24. More accuracy due to group synergy
- 26. Activities Definition MILESTONES A milestone is an event or accomplishment marking a significant advance in the project… it is not an activity. 37
- 27. Developing Project Schedule Scope Management Steps 1- Create the WBS 2- Define Activities 3- Sequence Activities 4- Estimate Resources Time Management 5- Estimate Activities Durations 6- Develop the Schedule 39
- 28. Activities Sequencing The process of taking the activities and milestones and putting them in the sequence in which the work will be performed. The results is the Network Diagram End Start 40
- 29. Network Diagram Construction Dig hole Plant tree QA/QC Finish to Start Start to Start ? Testing Documentation ? Finish to Finish Start to Finish
- 30. Activities Sequencing LEADLAG Design Concreting Coding Install Columns 5 days lead 7 days lag (curing)
- 31. Developing Project Schedule Scope Management Steps 1- Create the WBS 2- Define Activities 3- Sequence Activities 4- Estimate Resources Time Management 5- Estimate Activities Durations 6- Develop the Schedule
- 32. Activities Resource Estimating Resources People Equipment Materials Funds Intangibles: Laws …others…
- 34. Assign it to people doing the work,
- 35. Rely on historical information from past projects (org. process assets),
- 37. Activities Durations Estimating How to estimate activity durations:
- 38. Activities Durations Estimating Also called PERT analysis (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) Estimators analyze activities’ durations when things went very well, optimistic when things went badly, pessimistic when things went normally most likely Ex: Activity: Driving to Riyadh from Al-Khobar: (O) 3h:30m (M) 4h:15m (P) 6h:00m Three-Point
- 39. Activities Durations Estimating Using the PERT technique, we calculate the Expected Activity Duration (EAD). Range of accuracy lies within EAD-SD ~ to EAD+SD Three-Point EAD = To + 4 Tm + Tp 6 Most optimistic (To ) Most likely (Tm ) Most pessimistic (Tp ) VAR (Variance) = SD2 SD (Standard Deviation) = Tp - To 6
- 40. Activities Durations Estimating Ex: Duration Estimation for Activity “Concreting a 10-50CuYd Spread Footings”: Most optimistic (To )= 5 days Most likely (Tm )= 8 days Most pessimistic (Tp ) = 14 days Three-Point EAD = To + 4 Tm + Tp = 8.5 days 6 Estimate Range = EAD – SD ~ EAD +SD 8.5-1.5~ 8.5+1.5 Range = 7 To 10 SD = Tp - To 6 14 - 5 6 EAD = 5 + (4x8) + 14 6 = 1.5 =
- 41. Activities Durations Estimating CALCULATING PROJECT DURATION ESTIMATE RANGE: Step 1 Expected Project Duration (EPD) = ∑ EADs (CP) Step 2 SD(project) == ∑ VARs (CP) Step 3 Range of the Project Duration Estimate = EPD –SD(project) to EPD +SD(project) Three-Point
- 42. Activities Durations Estimating CALCULATING PROJECT DURATION ESTIMATE RANGE: To + 4 Tm + Tp 6 Three-Point Assuming these are all on the Critical Path, The Project Duration (EPD) = 45.5 + 24.8 + 19.2 + 35.5 + 55 = 180.03 Project SD = (3.34 + 8.03 + 0.69 + 10.05 + 4.41) = 26.52 = 5.15 Range of Project Duration Estimate = 180 – 5.15 to 180 + 5.15 = 174.85 to 185.15
- 43. Developing Project Schedule Scope Management Steps 1- Create the WBS 2- Define Activities 3- Sequence Activities 4- Estimate Resources Time Management 5- Estimate Activities Durations 6- Develop the Schedule
- 45. Shortest possible time to complete the project,
- 47. Helps to compress the schedule (during planning & execution),
- 48. Helps to determine which activities can be delayed (using floats).Critical Path Method
- 50. Free Float (Slack) – The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the “early start” date of its successor(s).
- 51. Project Float (Slack) – The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the externally imposed project completion date.Note: A negative float is the amount of delay in time of an activity on the CP.
- 52. Developing Project Schedule Critical Path Method Schedule Network Analysis The Network Diagram & the Critical Path EF ES Activity Name Float = ( ) ( ) LF LS FLOAT= late start – early start = late finish – early finish
- 53. Developing Project Schedule Critical Path Method Schedule Network Analysis The Network Diagram & the Critical Path EF ES Forward Pass from ‘Start’ to ‘End’ Activity Name Float = Backward Pass from ‘End’ to ‘Start’ LF LS
- 54. Developing Project Schedule Critical Path Method Schedule Network Analysis The Network Diagram & the Critical Path 8 7 5 Example E G H 8 12 4 18 13 25 18 4 33 25 C D 4 0 Start 5 7 13 6 18 13 F B End 6 A 6 0 Critical Path: Start-D-E-G-H-C-End = 32 Start-D-F-B-End = 16 Start-A-F-B-End = 18 Start-A-F-G-H-C-End = 33 EF ES LF LS
- 55. Developing Project Schedule Critical Path Method Schedule Network Analysis The Network Diagram & the Critical Path 8 7 5 Example E Float = 1 G Float = 0 H Float = 0 8 12 4 18 13 25 18 4 33 25 C Float = 0 D Float = 1 4 0 5 13 18 13 18 25 25 33 Start 5 7 1 5 13 6 18 13 F Float = 0 B Float = 15 End 6 A Float = 0 6 0 6 28 13 33 0 6 Critical Path: Start-D-E-G-H-C-End = 32 Start-D-F-B-End = 16 Start-A-F-B-End = 18 Start-A-F-G-H-C-End = 33 EF ES LF LS
- 57. One CP can change and no longer be a CP.
- 58. CP has zero float.
- 59. A CP can have a negative float (i.e., project is behind schedule).
- 60. When float is negative, schedule compression is necessary.Quick Facts
- 63. Usually difficult to achieve successfully rework!
- 64. Increases risk requires high levels of communications and close monitoring!FAST TRACKING Quick Facts
- 66. The non-CP activities’ resources can b applied to CP activities at no additional cost!CRASHING Quick Facts
- 67. Developing Project Schedule Schedule Compression Schedule Network Analysis – Schedule Compression 8 7 5 E G H 8 4 C D If you were handed this project with CP of 33 months, and asked to make it happen in 30 months, what would your options be? Start 5 7 F B End 6 A
- 68. Developing Project Schedule Schedule Compression Schedule Network Analysis – Schedule Compression This project has a float of -3 weeks. Which activity or activities would you crash to save 3 weeks on the project, assuming all these activities are on the Critical Path?
- 69. Developing Project Schedule Schedule Compression Schedule Network Analysis – Schedule Compression This project has a float of -3 months. Which activity or activities would you crash to save 3 months on the project, assuming all these activities are on th3 CP?
- 70. Project Schedule Henry Gantt (1861-1919), the father of planning and control techniques.
- 71. Project Schedule
- 72. ABCsof Project Time Management Planning Yousef Abugosh, PMP yabugosh@sipchem.com Section Head of Training - Sipchem Industrial Jubail, KSA THANK YOU
Notas del editor
- Of the five process groups (Initiating, Planning, Executing, Monitor and control, and closing), the Planning Process group contains the project time management that leads to schedule development. The only part which precedes the Activity list is the WBS, which is part of the Scope Management Process Group, as we shall see in a few moments.
- The four steps that lead to developing a solid schedule are shown here…
- The process of creating the WBS is the process of subdividing project deliverables and project work into smaller more manageable components.With each descending levels of the WBS, representing an increasingly detailed definition of the project work. It organizes and defines the total scope of the project.In project management, a work breakdown structure (WBS) is an exhaustive, hierarchical (from general to specific) tree structure of deliverables and tasks that need to be performed to complete a project.Whether the WBS should be activity-oriented or deliverable-oriented is a subject that has been discussed extensively. However, the PMI standardized it as deliverable-oriented.
- An example of a typical WBS is shown here to second level only….
- The work packages are further broken down into project activities, whenever applicable. An activity is a level of work small enough to estimate (duration), schedule, monitor and manage.This process is not always done as a separate step (many PMs use the WBS structure to Activity levels). Some large projects take the use Work Packages in the Network diagrams as Activities would make the network diagram too large.
- The idea of milestones is an old one. When the ancient Romans built roads across Europe, they placed special stones at the sides of the roadways at regular intervals. Travelers could use these stones as identifiers to mark their progress.Example of a project Milestone; a notable achievement; as, putting a man in orbit was a major milestone on the way to the moon."
- As you can see, a network diagram shows a start and end, and whatever in between are the activities placed in sequence in series or parallel dependencies… Some call the Network diagram wrongly a PERT chart. This is wrong. Here are some important notes to make about the Network Diagram:As ‘stand-alone’, it only shows dependencies,With durations added, it shows critical path,If plotted against time (calendar-based scale), it becomes “time-scaled schedule network diagram
- Notice that the Finish to finish means it does not matter when Documentation starts, but testing cannot finish before documentation finished.
- To Improve Estimate Accuracybase it on the WBS,assign it to people doing the work,rely on historical information from past projects (Org. Process Assets),use as small work packages as possible,proper estimating tools and process should be used,never allow padding of the estimate,
- The next step is to estimate the amount of time each activity is expected to take. To achieve this very accurately, estimators must know, with full clarity:Activity Resource RequirementResource calendarsOrganizational process assetsHistorical dataLessons learned on activity durationsPast project calendarsDefined scheduling
- Three-Point EstimationIt is said that statistically, the probability is quite small that any project would be completed exactly on its completion date. One of the most important responsibilities of the project manager is to bring the project execution back in line with the baseline plan through measuring deviations.Experienced project managers work with SME estimators to ensure deviations between reality (actual durations) and estimated ones are as small as possible.. Built in accuracy….One the best ways to do so is work through probabilities the best way they could… hence, the PERT method… When estimators use the three-point estimation on time (or cost), they can actually provide an improved perspective of the over all project estimate for each activity. We’re talking inching closer and closer towards a more accurate prediction using the law of highest probabilities.It is like risk management in that you bring the most probable event (expected duration taking place in reality) by taking the weighted average of the three quantities.
- IMPORTANT NOTE:Individual activity ranges do not give us the full picture for managing our project successfully… What we need to see is how these durations and their ranges affect the entire project’s duration estimate in order to address variances on our project effectively.So how do we find the range of the over all project duration estimate?
- CP Facts:The critical path is the longest duration path through a network diagram, and is the shortest possible time to complete the project.It is a proof of the project duration for stakeholders & management.
- Let us put the network diagram and the critical path together…A typical network diagram activity block can be expressed most effectively this way: The four corners would have the four possible conditions of the activity: Early Start, Early Finish, Late Start, and Late Finish. The center of the block would have the activity name, and below it, the activity float. Here is the float formula again…
- Again, the Critical path method includes determining the earliest and latest each activity can start and the earliest and latest each activity can be completed. The Early figures are found by calculating from the beginning of the project to the end of the project, following the dependencies in the network diagram.This is called “forward Pass” And the Late figures are found by calculating backwards from the end of the project to the start of the project. As we shall see in the following example:
- Going forward, the ES for an activity receiving from two activities is the latest of the EF of the two. While, going backwards, the LF of an activity receiving from two activities is the earlier of the two LSs.