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Agile estimations in a
traditional world
Nico De Greef, PMP
Independent Agile Coach
BE
Today’s Methodologies
 Traditional
 Prince2
 PMBoK
 Agile
 Scrum
Difference in Approach
 Prince2, PMBoK are PROJECT based
 Agile (Scrum) is a PRODUCT based
Difference in Terminology
 Terminology
 Sprints, Story Points, Velocity
 Agilians are not project managers
 PID, EVM, ...
Giveaway
 Interview question:
How does a project start?
Traditional World
• Scope
• Schedule
• Cost
• Quality
Agile World
• Scope
• Schedule
• Cost
• Quality
Earned Value Management (EVM)
Planned
 BAC = Initial Budget at Completion
 PV = Planned Value
Measured
 AC = Actual C...
Project
Start
Project
End
BAC
300.000 €
Planned
Measured
Today
3 months far
(50%)
PV
150.000 €
EV
(40%)
120.000 €
AC
(60%)...
Earned Value Management
Earned Value Management means Math
Estimate to Complete
=
(BAC-EV) x AC / EV
Some PMs take a short...
Agile EVM
 Estimate to Complete is easy
 Built-in in Scrum
Before we continue
 Sprint
 Fixed duration of work for the team
 Story
 Functional specification of a task
 Estimated...
Agile EVM chart – day 0
For demo purposes:
1 sprint = 50.000 €
= 5 developers, 20 days, 500€/day
BAC
50% PV after 3 sprints
Agile EVM chart – after 3 months
For demo purposes:
1 sprint = 50.000 euro
= 5 developers, 20 days, 500€/day
40% (EV)
5+ s...
Why so easy?
 Agile Forecasts are based on the story point relative estimation
 It takes into account past performance, ...
Questions ?
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Agile Estimations in a Traditional World

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Presentation by Nico De Greef as delivered during the event "How successful teams are built on top
of Atlassian and Tempo" on the 29th of September, 2015

Publicado en: Empresariales
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Agile Estimations in a Traditional World

  1. 1. Agile estimations in a traditional world Nico De Greef, PMP Independent Agile Coach BE
  2. 2. Today’s Methodologies  Traditional  Prince2  PMBoK  Agile  Scrum
  3. 3. Difference in Approach  Prince2, PMBoK are PROJECT based  Agile (Scrum) is a PRODUCT based
  4. 4. Difference in Terminology  Terminology  Sprints, Story Points, Velocity  Agilians are not project managers  PID, EVM, Gantt Chart, Matrix organization, Critical Path, Business Case, Project Charter, …?  Governance Compliance  Standardized PMO reporting, …
  5. 5. Giveaway  Interview question: How does a project start?
  6. 6. Traditional World • Scope • Schedule • Cost • Quality Agile World • Scope • Schedule • Cost • Quality
  7. 7. Earned Value Management (EVM) Planned  BAC = Initial Budget at Completion  PV = Planned Value Measured  AC = Actual Cost  EV = Earned Value Calculated  ETC = Estimate to Complete  EAC = Estimate at Completion
  8. 8. Project Start Project End BAC 300.000 € Planned Measured Today 3 months far (50%) PV 150.000 € EV (40%) 120.000 € AC (60%) 180.000 € EAC = AC + (BAC-EV) x AC / EV = 180.000 + (300.000-120.000) x 180.000 / 120.000 = 450.000 EAC 450.000 € a 6 months project ETC 270.000 € Calculated NEW Project End
  9. 9. Earned Value Management Earned Value Management means Math Estimate to Complete = (BAC-EV) x AC / EV Some PMs take a shortcut Estimate to Complete = BAC – AC 30% is done, 70% remaining until 1 month before the deadline...
  10. 10. Agile EVM  Estimate to Complete is easy  Built-in in Scrum
  11. 11. Before we continue  Sprint  Fixed duration of work for the team  Story  Functional specification of a task  Estimated in story points  Story Point  Relative Estimation of effort, risk and complexity  Fibonacci compensated  Velocity  Number of story points delivered during a sprint  Capacity  Number of man-days consumed in a sprint
  12. 12. Agile EVM chart – day 0 For demo purposes: 1 sprint = 50.000 € = 5 developers, 20 days, 500€/day BAC 50% PV after 3 sprints
  13. 13. Agile EVM chart – after 3 months For demo purposes: 1 sprint = 50.000 euro = 5 developers, 20 days, 500€/day 40% (EV) 5+ sprints ETC EAC But upstaffing first 3 months 1 sprint = 60.000 euro AC
  14. 14. Why so easy?  Agile Forecasts are based on the story point relative estimation  It takes into account past performance, for future delivery  Example  If you planned to spent 10 Story points a sprint  50 story points would be forecasted to 5 sprints  If you actually deliver 5 story points a sprint  50 story points would be forecasted to 10 sprints  No complex re-estimation needed!  Agile EVM  Capacity, scope change (less or more story points) and past performance (velocity) impact number of sprints  Number of sprints indicate cost and schedule
  15. 15. Questions ?

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