Predicting media trends with intelligent analysis
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Predicting the Next News Trends: The Advent of Intelligent Media Analysis
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Predicting media trends with intelligent analysis
- 1. Predicting the Next News Trends: The Advent of Intelligent Media Analysis Angela Jeffrey, APR Vice President Integrated Media, VMS Member, IPR Commission on PR Measurement & Evaluation
- 4. PART ONE: Discovering What You DO Know
- 10. PART TWO: Discovering What You Don’t Know
- 13. Instant Discovery News & Social
- 15. Clustering Concepts & Connections
- 18. Conceptual – “More Like This”
- 19. Proactive Discovery Might Have …
- 20. … Prevented this with Some Speaker Training
- 21. PART THREE: Making Sense of it!
- 23. Correlation to Customer Preference Survey (thin blue line) is low without competitive analysis, but soars to .97 through Share of Discussion.
- 24. Measuring Competitive NEWS (Unpaid Media)
- 27. Case Study - Are Qualitatives Enough? IPR Jack Felton Golden Ruler Award – Porter Novelli/VMS – correlations with no key message r = .51. With key messages r = .97. BUT – only TWO of the six messages were moving the needle!
- 32. Example: Share of Discussion Calculations Clients Total Impr. Positive Plus Neutral Impr. Negative Impr. Net Positive Impr. Share of Discussion Firm A 140,000 100,000 (40,000) 60,000 44.4% Firm B 250,000 150,000 (100,000) 50,000 37.0% Firm C 75,000 50,000 (25,000) 25,000 18.5% TOTALS: 465,000 300,000 (165,000) 135,000 100%
- 33. Share of Discussion against Survey Scores Plot sales, leads, web hits or survey scores on a chart with some time-lag behind SoD that reflects your sales cycle.
- 35. Measuring Competitive ADVERTISING
- 40. An “effective” ad scores at 100+. Huge disparity in effectiveness scores! Enormous Variation in Creative!
- 42. Measuring Competitive SOCIAL MEDIA
- 46. An I ntegrated View!
- 48. Royal Caribbean News Story
- 51. Sales forecast (blue line) was off by 9.5% against actual (pink line). Green line shows how accurate the forecast would have been w/News and Social Media!
- 55. Integration Yields New Star!
- 57. Comparing Messaging across All Mediums Seattle Children's is in Top 3 competitively in 11 of 17 categories based on integrated communications
Notas del editor
- Now – before you even start, you need to make this very important decision: do you need to measure to show your hard work, or to see actual business results? Sometimes they dovetail, but not always.
- Next – we need to decide whether we need every clip we can find, or if a sampling of most important media will do. (Note: best bet would mean you use traditional clip monitoring in your most important market areas, of for your top tier media, and defer to internet clipping for the rest).
- DIY searches in Google; bring everything in; hit & miss, no way of knowing if you’re finding the right ‘new’ stuff. (If you are HP, very important to identify new ideas all the time. If small B2B, may not mattter as much. Our own comparative analysis suggests that most consulting companies are offering online groups at about 20% less than they would charge for face-to-face groups
- Or through cluster mapping – which not only groups concepts together, but also shows you their relationship to each other based on how closely they are mapped.
- You can even determine which of those clusters are positive or negative using automated “heat map” sentiment analysis for a quick overview … AND …
- … even see a story morph over time and branch into sub-stories, so you can trace the origination and development of hotspots at a moment’s notice and take action at the core!
- Because terminology is so similar, the concern is its as nuance that will get lost in most cases, so we’re taking the position they are the same even though they’re not.
- Finally, what types of scoring really make the most sense? We’ll touch on some sticky wickets here, but hold on. The most common methods today for quantitative analysis are clip counts and impressions, but they don’t allow you to take into account the amount of space or time your firm actually ‘owns’ in a given story. New research shows that factoring in media costs improves correlations between media coverage and business results substantially for this reason, and many others. However, there is nothing “equivalent” about advertising costs and editorial when it comes to impact! So, if you choose to use media costs in your analysis, delete the dollar sign and simply use as a comparative index for correlations. Qualitative measures by themselves are too soft. A 2006 VMS/Porter Novelli study that won the IPR Jack Felton Golden Ruler Award showed that obtaining a high percentage of key message penetration does not necessarily yield good outcomes! You can find that study at www.instituteforpr.com, entitled “Exploring the Link Between Media Coverage and Business Outcomes.”
- Click on black space on left. Plays American Airlines ad that scores 67. Click on black space on right. Plays Southwest ad that scorfes 126. Main factors are company awareness, clear and easy to understand benefit, better call to action (metric is actually no call to action so have to take the reverse) and ad’s ability to change opinion about advertiser (we take the difference between positive and negative opinions)
- Same process, but print ads. Delta ad on left scores 110 versus American ad 82 Delta ad is clean and simple. American ad does a poor job of identifying AA and the text is small and over a busy graphic
- You can’t have high ROI without great creative and there are certainly a large number of very effective ads, but look at the huge variance between ads! This analysis was done by VMS using a variation of the proven Starch methodology. Using the VMS AdSight database of ad creative and a nationally projectable consumer panel we evaluated ads on the basis of likeability, brand recall, presence of a benefit, several measures of call to action, and change in advertiser perception. For this chart, a single index value was calculated but it can be calculated many different ways. The yellow line is the average of all ads tested and was indexed to 100%. In this analysis the mix of ads in the study had the same ratio as those captured by VMS’ AdSight platform, for example 43% print TV ads generally were above average, but about 60% of print were below average, most internet ads were below average, and all but one radio ad was below average. But in every category there were creatives that scored very well, so there is great room for improvement.
- Just look at the positive impact PR has on advertising for Burger King! In this industry, an ad campaign is highly correlated to sales for the past 30 days. Here, we see that the ad buy (in turquoise) goes up from July to August, but then is flat in September, but sales (purple bars) continued to go up! What was behind this? A PR campaign (in yellow) on the Burger King Value meal actually increased the effectiveness of those ads so much, that the total integration (dark blue line) showed a correlation of .99 to sales! PR can have an impact of 20-30% on an ad campaign, so if you figure BK spent $20-$30 million a month, this means PR generated $4-$9 million dollars in ad effectiveness with a relatively modest investment.
- Seattle Children’s has achieved a consistently high communications level using a mix of paid and earned media. Paid advertising in cardiology, neurology, orthopedics, and research increase overall communications share above what can be achieved by earned media alone.