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Those leading globalization have in most cases no appetite nor time to think about it (cause to defend, vetted interest, advocacy, profit), whereas those who should think globalization lack the information and the theoretical framework to theorize it
“2010” data – IPCC AR5 2014 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter11.pdf “Annual GHG emissions from agricultural production in 2000–2010 were estimated at 5.0–5.8 GtCO2eq/yr while annual GHG flux from land use and land-use change activities accounted for approximately 4.3–5.5 GtCO2eq/yr.”
IMPORTANT MESSAGE : If all non Ag sectors make efforts and commitments to a +2°C world, and if agriculture keeps doing BAU, ag emissions will represent 50% of total GHG emissions in 2050. Hence ag cannot stay behind. Using medians of 5.4 (agriculture) and 4.9 (forestry), and assuming agriculture drives 73% of forest emissions (Hosonuma and Carter, Wageningen data, unpub) (.73 x4.9 =3.6), the total agriculture related emissions in 2010 were 9 GtCO2e/yr. (actually reflects annual average over period 2000-2010)
2050 data= based on FAO projection for agriculture of 6.3 GtCO2e to increase production by 60% by 2050, assuming agricultural intensification and using Carter Eageningen estimate of 4.32 GTCO2e, for total of 10.62.
Based on http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri13_report_4c_wrr_online.pdf, esp. pp. 85-86 and fig. 33 there. And UNEP Gap Report 2013 http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEPEmissionsGapReport2013.pdf
The world’s smallholder farmers – who provide 70% of the planet’s food supply – are under severe threat from climate change.
While many businesses are stepping up their response to complex global challenges and increasingly advocating for pragmatic and science-based solutions, they are frequently met with mistrust and opposition, especially from NGOs
Suitability for Arabica moves up the slope Highly suitable areas for Arabica decrease Competition with protected areas – forests
Less suitability areas for Arabica become more suitable for Robusta North Uganda loses suitability
CSA is not a nutshell where what is the most compelling from one’s perspective can be picked. A way to generate co-benefits for farmers from the genuine combination of adaptation, mitigation and food security in agriculture Only this combination will provide fair and equitable opportunities for farmers, especially the poor and vulnerable, to face climate change.
[Main commodities appear on screen automatically] [Click 1 – minor commodities in black appear]
Note to PW: Respondents referred to (investment) value at risk when answering this question. highlight that there’s no significant difference between list of commodities prioritized by companies in different sectors (trader, input provider or food producer) There is no perfect alignment between focus of analysed projects and prioritized commodities explained by existing investment in high value crops.
So lets see which commodities represent the most value at risk for your companies. Clearly it’s the broadacre row crops, palm, sugar, rice plus coffee and cocoa that you have identified. These are on the outer ring and then the other commodities are on the inner ring. And lets remember, these are the results of the sample group companies and we recognise that many representatives here today will have specialised commodity interests.
QUESTION 3: WHAT IS THE MOST CRITICAL GEOGRAPHICAL REGION FOR YOUR COMPANY’S SUPPLY/SOURCING? Test for audience before revealing map
Possible Answers (top 6 regions from our research)– South America North America (Us, Ca, Mx) South East Asia South Africa West Africa India Other_________[type-in Option]
[Click 1 – explanatory notes build up (all 3)]
A: Typically engage actors in the same value chain to increase productivity etc.
Definitely clear potential to improve as despite investment projects not meeting results required for SDG target New opportunity – bring in non-traditional partners, e.g. tech and machinery providers
B: Requires full collaboration of companies within a geographic and demographic reach e.g. bringing together grains, rice, soy, fruit crops etc. Requires broad consensus of activities, probably working with local govs.
Examples: agri development corridors, integrated farming and conservation areas; water resources management.
Easier to scale up infrastructure, banking and technology when not limited to one commodity.
Farm by farm approach allows more holistic focus in line with SDG2
Would require local management centre.
C: Structurally complex with a multitude of contributors across geographies and representation from across the value chain e.g. RSPO and the Global Alliance for Climate Smart Agriculture led by the FAO.
Limited latent potential as already highly advanced
Climate-smart agriculture : feeding the world or greenwashing ?
Feeding the World or Greenwashing?
Director of Strategic Partnerships, CGIAR System Organization
G-20Y Summit 2016, St Moritz, Switzerland
Actors and thinkers of globalization
Who invented the concept of…
Globalization : who acts, who thinks ?
How can we, leaders of G20 industries and leaders in
science, design a sustainable pathway leading to a healthy
planet, humanity and economy ?
Food security : can Climate-Smart Agriculture become a
way to combat climate change while ensuring the
prosperity of farmers and the agribusiness ?
Our food system:
driver and victim of climate change
50% of emissions to feed ourselves ?
“Business as usual” (BAU)
would comprise ~50% of
allowable emissions to
achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
(Business as usual)
Climate variability will impact
on food production
Source: Socioeconomic Data and
Applications Center (SEDAC)
Crop yields drop by
2050 under BAU
5% per °C
can’t be washed away
Climate change and food security impose wicked
problems, that hit industries in all their supply chains
“Good communication” (eg imposing a tax on palm
oil) diverts from the real issues
Time wasted whereas the Earth will reach +1.5°C in
7 years from now !
Public-private science dialogue
Palm oil vs. deforestation (TFT)
50% of palm oil from smallholders
Cut more trees but produce at
only 20% of potential
Engaging with smallholders and
policy makers > certification
Reconsidering supply chains and
supplying landscapes helps reconnect
with national and local governments,
and re-establish dialogue
Get people to sit together around a map !
Horn of Africa – insuring the never-before-insured
against catastrophic drought
IBLI (index-based livestock insurance) contract holders
receive payouts when forage conditions deteriorate
14,000 pastoralists in
200,000 US$ paid out
33% reduction in food aid
Science for sustainable supply chains
Candid and transparent approaches help
reconsidering the real issues
Science can help re-create value in supply
Feeding people, companies, and the economy,
rather than greenwashing