Se ha denunciado esta presentación.
Utilizamos tu perfil de LinkedIn y tus datos de actividad para personalizar los anuncios y mostrarte publicidad más relevante. Puedes cambiar tus preferencias de publicidad en cualquier momento.
Alasdair Whyte
The state of the market
What drives business jet and VIP helicopter sales?

Why are we still in a downturn?

2
of 60
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

3
of 60

Source: GAMA and Corporate Jet Investor forecast...
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

4
of 60

Source: GAMA and Corporate Jet Investor forecast
5
of 60

Source: Bombardier estimates
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

10
of 60

Source: Forbes Rich List

2005

2006

200...
 2013: 199,235 ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWI) with a net worth of $30 million

- combined wealth of $27.8 trill...
 Net worth of $138 million
 58 years old
 Male (88%)
 Married (95%)

 Self made (70%)
 Most likely to have worked in...
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
 2013: Falcon 2000S, Learjet 70, Learjet 75, New Citation X, Eclipse 550
 2014: Challenger 350, Falcon 2000LXS, Honda Je...
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
18

16

14

12

$ billion

10

8

6

4

2

0
Jan-07

Jan-08

16
Source: Textron
of 60

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan...
25

$ billion

20

15

10

5

0

2007

2008

2009

17
of 60

Source: General Dynamics

2010

2011

2012

2013
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
19
of 60

Source: Corporate Jet Investor
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
21
of 60
22
of 60
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
2007

2008

2009

2010
Hong Kong

23
Source: Embraer
of 60

China

2011

2012
• China
• India
• Thailand
• Malaysia

• Indonesia
• And the Philippines

24
of 60

Source: 2011 UVTripPlanner
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
26
of 60
2
1.8
1.6

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

27
of 60
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
2008 to 2013

30
of 60

2003 to 2007

1998 to 2002

1997 & Older
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
32
of 60

Source: Wing-X
33
of 60
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
2,565
 Average time to sell a jet:

business jets for sale

509 days

36
of 60

Source: Amstat, September 2013
37
of 60
As % of Total For Sale / Lease

38

2008 to 2013

2003 to 2007

1998 to 2002

As % of Active Fleet

1997 & Older

Source: ...
Large Jets
Model
Falcon 2000LX
Boeing BBJ
Global XRS
GV
GIV-SP (MSG3)
CL-601-3R
Challenger 601-1A
G-III

ETP Ratio
4.0%
8....
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
Aircraft
retirements

New
aircraft
Wealth
creation
Emerging
Global
markets
economy

Pre-o...
41

Analysis: Dean Roberts, Rolls-Royce
of 60
42
of 60

Analysis: Dean Roberts, Rolls-Royce
43
of 60
44
of 60
 Brazil riots
 Libya
 Attacks in Egypt
 North Korea/South Korea

 Fukishima Nuclear Plant
 Terrorism in Kenya
 Gold...
46
of 60
Analysis: Dean Roberts, Rolls-Royce
1.
47

‘Take this job and stuff it’ indicator (aka DoL job quits data)
2. Conference B...
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation

New
aircraft
types

Aircraft
retirements
Wealth
creation

Emerging
Global
market
economy...
49
of 60
50
of 60
Charter/
fractional

Utilisation
New
aircraft
types

Aircraft
retirements
Wealth
creation

Emerging
Global
market
economy
...
Alasdair Whyte
Corporate Jet Investor
+44 1737 844 383
awhyte@corpjetinvestor.com

52
of 60
The state of the business jet market 2014
The state of the business jet market 2014
The state of the business jet market 2014
The state of the business jet market 2014
Próxima SlideShare
Cargando en…5
×

The state of the business jet market 2014

800 visualizaciones

Publicado el

A brief look at why we are still in a business jet downturn.

Publicado en: Empresariales
  • Inicia sesión para ver los comentarios

The state of the business jet market 2014

  1. 1. Alasdair Whyte
  2. 2. The state of the market What drives business jet and VIP helicopter sales? Why are we still in a downturn? 2 of 60
  3. 3. 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 3 of 60 Source: GAMA and Corporate Jet Investor forecast 2012 2013
  4. 4. 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 4 of 60 Source: GAMA and Corporate Jet Investor forecast
  5. 5. 5 of 60 Source: Bombardier estimates
  6. 6. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Economy Backlogs 7 of 60 Confidence Finance
  7. 7. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global Economy Backlogs 9 of 60 Confidence Finance
  8. 8. 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 10 of 60 Source: Forbes Rich List 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  9. 9.  2013: 199,235 ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWI) with a net worth of $30 million - combined wealth of $27.8 trillion  2012: 187,380 UHNWI with a combined wealth of $25.7 trillion There are 2,170 billionaires in the world with a total net worth of $6.5 trillion. Source: Wealth X 11 of 60
  10. 10.  Net worth of $138 million  58 years old  Male (88%)  Married (95%)  Self made (70%)  Most likely to have worked in finance, banking, investment or insurance (20%), industry (6.3%), manufacturing conglomerate (5.5%)  Has a degree (87%) Source: Wealth X 12 of 60
  11. 11. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 13 of 60 Confidence Finance
  12. 12.  2013: Falcon 2000S, Learjet 70, Learjet 75, New Citation X, Eclipse 550  2014: Challenger 350, Falcon 2000LXS, Honda Jet, Learjet 85, Legacy 500, New Citation Sovereign  2015: Citation Latitude, Legacy 450  2016: Global 7000  2017: Citation Longitude, Global 8000, PC-24 14 of 60 Source: Corporate Jet Investor
  13. 13. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 15 of 60 Confidence Finance
  14. 14. 18 16 14 12 $ billion 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 16 Source: Textron of 60 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
  15. 15. 25 $ billion 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 17 of 60 Source: General Dynamics 2010 2011 2012 2013
  16. 16. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 18 of 60 Confidence Finance
  17. 17. 19 of 60 Source: Corporate Jet Investor
  18. 18. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 20 of 60 Confidence Finance
  19. 19. 21 of 60
  20. 20. 22 of 60
  21. 21. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Hong Kong 23 Source: Embraer of 60 China 2011 2012
  22. 22. • China • India • Thailand • Malaysia • Indonesia • And the Philippines 24 of 60 Source: 2011 UVTripPlanner
  23. 23. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Economy Backlogs 25 of 60 Confidence Finance
  24. 24. 26 of 60
  25. 25. 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 27 of 60
  26. 26. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 29 of 60 Confidence Finance
  27. 27. 2008 to 2013 30 of 60 2003 to 2007 1998 to 2002 1997 & Older
  28. 28. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 31 of 60 Confidence Finance
  29. 29. 32 of 60 Source: Wing-X
  30. 30. 33 of 60
  31. 31. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 35 of 60 Confidence Finance
  32. 32. 2,565  Average time to sell a jet: business jets for sale 509 days 36 of 60 Source: Amstat, September 2013
  33. 33. 37 of 60
  34. 34. As % of Total For Sale / Lease 38 2008 to 2013 2003 to 2007 1998 to 2002 As % of Active Fleet 1997 & Older Source: AMSTAT www.amstatcorp.com; Asset Insight research www.assetinsightinc.com of 60 September 2013
  35. 35. Large Jets Model Falcon 2000LX Boeing BBJ Global XRS GV GIV-SP (MSG3) CL-601-3R Challenger 601-1A G-III ETP Ratio 4.0% 8.7% 12.6% 37.8% 44.9% 46.9% 152.6% 253.1% Medium Jets Model ETP Ratio Citation X 9.6% Challenger 300 14.2% G-200 16.1% Hawker 800XP 25.5% Hawker Beechjet 400A 58.7% Learjet 60 69.4% Learjet 55 73.3% Hawker Beechjet 400 87.4% Small Jets Model Citation CJ1+ Phenom 100 Citation CJ2 Premier 1 Learjet 31 Citation II Citation VI Learjet 35A Aircraft with ETP Ratio >40% carry excessive Maintenance Financial Exposure vs. Ask Price 39 of 60 Source: Asset Insight research ww.assetinsightinc.com ETP Ratio 10.0% 12.7% 20.2% 35.2% 44.4% 76.6% 86.0% 100.2%
  36. 36. Charter/ fractional Utilisation Aircraft retirements New aircraft Wealth creation Emerging Global markets economy Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 40 of 60 Confidence Finance
  37. 37. 41 Analysis: Dean Roberts, Rolls-Royce of 60
  38. 38. 42 of 60 Analysis: Dean Roberts, Rolls-Royce
  39. 39. 43 of 60
  40. 40. 44 of 60
  41. 41.  Brazil riots  Libya  Attacks in Egypt  North Korea/South Korea  Fukishima Nuclear Plant  Terrorism in Kenya  Golden Dawn in Greece  US government shutdown  US debt ceiling 45 of 60
  42. 42. 46 of 60
  43. 43. Analysis: Dean Roberts, Rolls-Royce 1. 47 ‘Take this job and stuff it’ indicator (aka DoL job quits data) 2. Conference Board of 60
  44. 44. Charter/ fractional Utilisation New aircraft types Aircraft retirements Wealth creation Emerging Global market economy penetration Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs 48 of 60 Confidence Finance
  45. 45. 49 of 60
  46. 46. 50 of 60
  47. 47. Charter/ fractional Utilisation New aircraft types Aircraft retirements Wealth creation Emerging Global market economy penetration Pre-owned Global economy Backlogs Confidence 51 of 60 Finance
  48. 48. Alasdair Whyte Corporate Jet Investor +44 1737 844 383 awhyte@corpjetinvestor.com 52 of 60

×