Fraud Detection with Cost-Sensitive Predictive Analytics
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Online fraud costs the global economy more than $400 billion, with more than 800 million personal records stolen in 2013 alone. Increasingly, fraud has diversified to different digital channels, including mobile and online payments, creating new challenges as innovative fraud patterns emerge. Hence it is still a challenge to find effective methods to mitigate fraud. Existing solutions include simple if-then rules and classical machine learning algorithms. From an academic perspective, credit card fraud detection is a standard classification problem, in which historical transaction data is used to predict future frauds. However, practical aspects make the problem more complex. Indeed, existent comparison measures lack a realistic representation of monetary gains and losses, which is necessary for effective fraud detection. Moreover, there is an enormous amount of transactions from which only a tiny part are frauds, which implies a huge class imbalance. Additionally, a real fraud detection system is required to give a response in milliseconds. This criterion needs to be taken into account in the modeling process in order for the system to be successfully implemented. To solve these problems, in this presentation two recently proposed algorithms are compared: Bayes minimum risk and example-dependent cost-sensitive decision tree. These methods are compared with state of the art algorithms and shows significant improvements measured by financial savings.
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Fraud Detection with Cost-Sensitive Predictive Analytics
- 1. Fraud Analytics Alejandro Correa Bahnsen, PhD Data Scientist
- 2. About me • PhD in Machine Learning at Luxembourg University • Data Scientist at Easy Solutions • Worked for +8 years as a data scientist at GE Money, Scotiabank and SIX Financial Services • Bachelor and Master in Industrial Engineering • Organizer of the Big Data & Data Science Bogota Meetup 2
- 3. About us Industry recognitionA leading global provider of electronic fraud prevention for financial institutions and enterprise customers 280+ customers In 26 countries 75 million Users protected 22+ billion Online connections monitored in last 12 months 3
- 4. Our Approach:Total Fraud Protection® 4
- 5. ~1Billion USD ~171Millions USD ~3Billions USD Does fraud affect me? 5
- 6. Does fraud affect me? 6
- 7. € - € 100 € 200 € 300 € 400 € 500 € 600 € 700 € 800 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe fraud evolution Card not present (Internet) transactions 7
- 8. $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US fraud evolution Card not present (Internet) transactions 8
- 9. 1.10% 1.30% 1.10% 0.90% 0.88% 0.87% 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Card Present vs. Card Not Present Fraud Rates Card Not Present Card Present 23.3 26.8 30.0 33.3 35.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US Online Banking Billions of Transactions 1.2 3.0 5.6 9.4 14.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US Mobile Banking Billions of Transactions 9
- 10. 10 La Banca Móvil continúa creciendo mientras los canales tradicionales pierden usuarios ¿Qué medios usa para realizar operaciones bancarias / consulta de saldo / pagos de servicios /pago de impuestos u otros pagos o compras
- 11. 11 Retos de Seguridad en Móviles
- 12. 12 La principal razón de quienes NO usan Internet para transacciones o compras es el temor al fraude electrónico ¿Por qué NO USA Internet para realizar operaciones bancarias, pagos o compras?
- 13. There is a need for better fraud detection strategies 13
- 14. 14
- 15. “War is ninety percent information” • Napoleon Bonaparte 15
- 16. BigData? 16
- 17. 17
- 18. 18
- 19. Big data (Data Science) is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it... 19
- 20. 20
- 21. 21 Man on the Moon
- 22. Man on the Moon Distance: 356,000Km Never been there before Must return to Earth 22 Man on the Moon – Small Data!! Apollo XI Speed: 3,500 km/hour Weight: 13,500kg Lots of complex data Computer Program 64kb, 2Kb RAM, Fortran Must work the first time
- 23. Apollo XI, 1969 64Kb, 2Kb RAM 23 Man on the Moon – Small Data!! iphone 6 128GB, 2GB RAM
- 25. BigData Analytics is the use of methods and tools of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence with the objective making data- driven decisions 25
- 27. Estimate the probability of a transaction being fraud based on analyzing customer patterns and recent fraudulent behavior Issues when constructing a fraud detection system: • Skewness of the data • Cost-sensitivity • Short time response of the system • Dimensionality of the search space • Feature preprocessing • Model selection 27 Credit card fraud detection
- 29. • Larger European card processing company • 2012 & 2013 card present transactions • 20MM Transactions • 40,000 Frauds • 0.467% Fraud rate • ~ 2MM EUR lost due to fraud on test dataset Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Test Train Data
- 30. • “Purpose is to use facts and rules, taken from the knowledge of many human experts, to help make decisions.” • Example of rules • More than 4 ATM transactions in one hour? • More than 2 transactions in 5 minutes? • Magnetic stripe transaction then internet transaction? 30 If-Then rules (Expert rules)
- 31. 1.04% 31% 17% 22% Miss-cla Recall Precision F1-Score 31 If-Then rules (Expert rules)
- 32. Credit card fraud detection is a cost-sensitive problem. As the cost due to a false positive is different than the cost of a false negative. • False positives: When predicting a transaction as fraudulent, when in fact it is not a fraud, there is an administrative cost that is incurred by the financial institution. • False negatives: Failing to detect a fraud, the amount of that transaction is lost. Moreover, it is not enough to assume a constant cost difference between false positives and false negatives, as the amount of the transactions varies quite significantly. 32 Financial evaluation
- 33. Cost matrix 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑓 𝑆 = 𝑖=1 𝑁 𝑦𝑖 𝑐𝑖 𝐶 𝑇𝑃 𝑖 + 1 − 𝑐𝑖 𝐶 𝐹𝑁 𝑖 + 1 − 𝑦𝑖 𝑐𝑖 𝐶 𝐹𝑃 𝑖 + 1 − 𝑐𝑖 𝐶 𝑇𝑁 𝑖 33 Actual Positive 𝒚𝒊 = 𝟏 Actual Negative 𝒚𝒊 = 𝟎 Predicted Positive 𝒄𝒊 = 𝟏 𝐶 𝑇𝑃 𝑖 = 𝐶 𝑎 𝐶 𝐹𝑃 𝑖 = 𝐶 𝑎 Predicted Negative 𝒄𝒊 = 𝟎 𝐶 𝐹𝑁 𝑖 = 𝐴𝑚𝑡𝑖 𝐶 𝑇𝑁 𝑖 = 0 Financial evaluation
- 34. 1.24 € 1.94 € Cost Total Losses 1.04% 31% 17% 22% Miss-cla Recall Precision F1-Score 34 If-Then rules (Expert rules)
- 36. Fraud Analytics is the use of statistical and mathematical techniques (Machine Learning) to discover patterns in data in order to make predictions Fraud Analytics
- 37. Raw features 37 Attribute name Description Transaction ID Transaction identification number Time Date and time of the transaction Account number Identification number of the customer Card number Identification of the credit card Transaction type ie. Internet, ATM, POS, ... Entry mode ie. Chip and pin, magnetic stripe, ... Amount Amount of the transaction in Euros Merchant code Identification of the merchant type Merchant group Merchant group identification Country Country of trx Country 2 Country of residence Type of card ie. Visa debit, Mastercard, American Express... Gender Gender of the card holder Age Card holder age Bank Issuer bank of the card Features
- 38. Transaction aggregation strategy 38 Raw Features TrxId Time Type Country Amt 1 1/1 18:20 POS Lux 250 2 1/1 20:35 POS Lux 400 3 1/1 22:30 ATM Lux 250 4 2/1 00:50 POS Ger 50 5 2/1 19:18 POS Ger 100 6 2/1 23:45 POS Ger 150 7 3/1 06:00 POS Lux 10 Aggregated Features No Trx last 24h Amt last 24h No Trx last 24h same type and country Amt last 24h same type and country 0 0 0 0 1 250 1 250 2 650 0 0 3 900 0 0 3 700 1 50 2 150 2 150 3 400 0 0 Features
- 39. When is a customer expected to make a new transaction? Considering a von Mises distribution with a period of 24 hours such that 𝑃(𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) ~ 𝑣𝑜𝑛𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝜇, 𝜎 = 𝑒 𝜎𝑐𝑜𝑠(𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒−𝜇) 2𝜋𝐼0 𝜎 where 𝝁 is the mean, 𝝈 is the standard deviation, and 𝑰 𝟎 is the Bessel function 39 Periodic features
- 41. Amountofthetransaction Number of transactions last day Normal Transaction Fraud 41
- 42. 42 Amountofthetransaction Number of transactions last day Normal Transaction Fraud
- 43. 43 Amount of the transaction Normal Transaction Fraud Number of transactions last dayNumber of ATM transactions last week
- 44. Fraud Analytics Algorithms Fuzzy Rules Neural Nets Naive Bayes *Random Forests RF – with Cost-Proportionate Rejection Sampling *Cost-Sensitive Random Patches Decision Trees 44
- 45. 45 Decision Trees X1=Amountofthetransaction X2= Number of transactions last day A decision tree is a classification model that iteratively creates binary decision rules that maximize certain criteria (Gini, entropy, …). Initial Node X2<10 X2≥10 X1<100 X1<50 X2<15 X2≥15 X1≥50 X1≥100
- 46. A Random Forest is made by combining many different decision trees. Each one trained on a random subset of the initial dataset 46 Random Forests
- 47. 47 Random Forests & Random Patches 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 6 2 5 2 1 3 6 1 5 8 1 4 4 2 1 9 4 6 1 1 5 8 1 4 4 2 1 1 5 8 1 4 4 2 1 1 5 8 1 4 4 2 1 Bagging Random forest Random patches Training set
- 48. 48 Cost-Sensitive Decision Trees • Standard decision trees create rules that maximize either the Gini or the entropy measures • However this assumes that all misclassification errors carry the same cost • Not true in fraud detection • Instead the cost-sensitive decision tree minimizes the cost of each rule 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑓 𝑛𝑜𝑑𝑒 Initial Node X2<10 X2≥10 X1<100 X1<50 X2<15 X2≥15 X1≥50 X1≥100
- 49. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Expert Rules Fuzzy Rules Neural Nets Naïve Bayes Random Forests RF - CP Random Sampling CS Random Patches % Savings % Frauds 49
- 50. • Fraud Analytics (ML) models are significantly better than expert rules • Models should be evaluated taking into account real financial costs of the application • Algorithms should be developed to incorporate those financial costs Conclusions 50
- 51. 51
- 52. Questions? Alejandro Correa Bahnsen, PhD Data Scientist acorrea@Easysol.net 52
Notas del editor
- Analytics at work. Davenport 2010.
- En 2015, el Internet y la tecnología móvil han solidificado su estatus en Latinoamérica como los canales más populares para operaciones bancarias, pagos y compras. Las oficinas bancarias continúan perdiendo uso y menos del 30% de los usuarios utilizan regularmente canales tradicionales como cajeros automáticos o sistemas de audio-respuesta. Está claro que los usuarios de transacciones en Internet muestran una clara preferencia por eliminar el efectivo de sus transacciones tanto como les sea posible, y el uso de tarjetas de crédito parece seguir esta tendencia debido a que los usuarios cada vez más prefieren manejar sus operaciones en computadoras y dispositivos móviles. Si bien el uso de dispositivos móviles para realizar operaciones financieras continúa creciendo, aún existe resistencia de parte de los usuarios para utilizar estos dispositivos de la misma forma que sus computadoras, incluso siendo más convenientes al poderlos llevar a todas partes. Internet se mantiene como el canal más frecuentemente usado, con un promedio de uso por persona de 3.8 veces por mes. Anécdota de bancos en Colombia y sus filas.
- Y los usuarios están en lo cierto al ser tan precavidos. Un estudio conducido por la empresa Arxan Technologies dice que un 95% de las principales aplicaciones móviles financieras para Android (y 70% de las de iOS) han sido hackeadas. En 2014, Trend Micro encontró que el 77% de las 50 aplicaciones gratuitas más descargadas de Google Play tenian versiones falsas, haciendo muy difícil para los usuarios detectar cuál es de ellas son auténticas o fraudulentas.
- El análisis de la visión y opiniones de aquellos que regularmente utilizan la Internet para operaciones bancarias y compras es de gran importancia a la hora de diseñar una estrategia que intente aprovechar todo el potencial que este canal ofrece. No obstante, es de igual importancia el examinar aquellos usuarios que debido a una variedad de razones no utilizan Internet con propósitos de finanzas o comercio electrónico. La principal razón mencionada por estos usuarios para no tomar ventaja de los servicios bancarios online fue el miedo al fraude electrónico. Si consideramos que los portales de banca online ofrecen mayor conveniencia a los usuarios y sus menores costos de operación benefician a las instituciones, entonces es imperativo que los bancos continúen investigando formas de promover la adopción de canales de banca electrónica. La prevención del fraude en estos canales no es sólo una forma de prevenir pérdidas económicas y proteger la reputación de las instituciones, una fuerte protección contra fraude también puede hacer que usuarios antes escépticos, adquieran la confianza necesaria para incorporar estos canales a su rutina bancaria normal, y que los bancos con tasas de adopción más altas obtengan una ventaja competitiva más amplia.
- Analytics at work. Davenport 2010.
- http://tagul.com/
- The famous French general didn’t even live the information age, and yet he attributed most of his military success to having the right information. When you’re battling for a competitive advantage in business, analytics data can be equally important to your success.
- http://www.kurzweilai.net/googles-self-driving-car-gathers-nearly-1-gbsec
- http://www.visualnews.com/2012/06/19/how-much-data-created-every-minute/?view=infographic
- http://www.visualnews.com/2012/06/19/how-much-data-created-every-minute/?view=infographic
- http://www.visualnews.com/2012/06/19/how-much-data-created-every-minute/?view=infographic
- http://www.visualnews.com/2012/06/19/how-much-data-created-every-minute/?view=infographic
- The famous French general didn’t even live the information age, and yet he attributed most of his military success to having the right information. When you’re battling for a competitive advantage in business, analytics data can be equally important to your success.