1. Technical Analysis From the Top/Down
J.C. Parets, CMT
5/8/12

2. Harvard Sentiment Polls
• S&P500 1600 or 1200?
• Own/Hold Just One Stock for a full Year? Ten
Years?
• Technical or Fundamental Analysis?

3. “Technical Analysis refers to the study of the action of the market itself
as opposed to the study of the goods in which the market deals”
- Robert D. Edwards and John Magee in 1948

4. Technical Analysis
• Risk Management
• Top/Down Market Analysis
• Sentiment
• Seasonality
• Momentum
• Risk/Reward
• Technical Analysis & Social Media

5. Where Am I Wrong?

6. Dow Jones Industrial Average 1900-Present

7. 10-Year US Treasury Yields 1940 - Present

8. Dow Industrials Priced in Gold 1969 - Present

9. Stock Sector Performance Since 2009

10. Financials in 2007 (Pre-Crash)

11. Consumer Discretionary/Staples in 2007

12. Consumer Discretionary/Staples in 2009

13. Nasdaq100 vs S&P500 in 2008 - 2009

14. S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq100 2009-Present

15. Leading Indicators
• Copper
• Semiconductors
• Other Intermarket Relationships

16. S&P500
Bottom 2009
US Dollar Index
Top 2009

18. AAII Survey of Retail Investor
Sentiment

19. August 1979 June 2005

20. Sell in May and Go Away?

21. Bullish Divergence in Momentum

22. Bearish Divergence in Momentum

23. Risk vs Reward

24. Technical Analysis on the Web
• Stocktwits
• Chart.ly
• Blogs

25. J.C. Parets, CMT
jc@allstarcharts.com
Stocktwits & Twitter @allstarcharts