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Common Errors in Statistical Thinking

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Common Errors in Statistical Thinking

1. 1. 3<br />Three Common Errorsin statistical thinking<br />
2. 2. Overview<br />Misleading bar charts<br />Correlation and causation<br />Two kinds of significance<br />
3. 3. Error<br />1<br />Misleading Bar Charts<br />
4. 4. Student Satisfaction Data Excerpt<br />?<br />Can you compare “apples to apples” using this chart?<br />
5. 5. Student Satisfaction Data Excerpt<br />?<br />Can you compare “apples to oranges” using this chart?<br />Can you compare “apples to apples” using this chart?<br />
6. 6. Student Satisfaction Data Excerpt<br />
7. 7. Error<br />2<br />Correlation & Causation<br />
8. 8. Variables<br />An aspect of someone or something that is free to vary – that is, different values are possible<br />
9. 9. Correlation<br />How 2 variables change (vary) in relationship<br />
10. 10. CORRELATION<br />
11. 11. Correlations of ±1.00<br />
12. 12. An Interesting Correlation<br />Sources: FBI Crime Statistics (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/documents/CIUS_2004_Section2.pdf) and USDA Dairy Statistics (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/nass/DairProd//2000s/2005/DairProd-02-04-2005.pdf)<br />
13. 13. Interesting Causation…?<br />Landers, J.B. (n.d.). On CAUSEweb.org. Retrieved from http://www.causeweb.org/<br />
14. 14. Causation<br />Causation has at least 3 requirements<br />Correlation<br />Temporal precedence<br />Control (elimination) of other possible causes<br />
15. 15. Error<br />3<br />Two kinds of significance<br />
16. 16. Statistical Significance<br />Null hypothesis significance testing<br />?<br />H0<br />
17. 17. Practical Significance<br /><ul><li>What do you mean by “significant”?
18. 18. Result: confusion
19. 19. Researchers report “significant finding”
20. 20. Readers may think it’s substantial when it’s only reliable or fairly certain</li>