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Giulia Rinaldi, Bax & Company, Barcelona, Spain.

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Giulia Rinaldi, Bax & Company, Barcelona, Spain.

  1. 1. Data-driven housing renovation investment planning Giulia Rinaldi Bax & Company Barcelona, SPAIN
  2. 2. The challenge of the social housing sector Energyefficiencyobjective(%savingstarget) 0-20-40-60-80 Frequency of renovation ≈0.01% have high ambitions (NZEB) ≈0.3% have minimal ambitions ≈80% No Ambition 1,5% Average renovation rate in the European social housing sector 80% of European renovations do not target energy performance improvements Current energy efficiency renovations in social housing: • are for specific buildings; • follow a lifetime component replacement procedure without considering the benefits of integrated renovation at scale; • follow a single technology approach to optimise their investments without strategically planning their renovation. A lack of both viable strategies for large-scale building renovation and decision-making tools with an integrated perspective of cost-benefit evaluation encompassing complete renovation measures.
  3. 3. The DREEAM project DREEAM: Demonstrating an integrated Renovation approach for Energy Efficiency At the Multi-building scale DREEAM aims to show that renovating at a larger scale opens the opportunity for a better integration of renewable energy and is generally more cost effective. The project demonstrates a multi-building and single owner renovation approach that can achieve a 75% reduction of total energy demand. DREEAM focuses on social and public housing (representing 12% of the EU building stock), whose owners manage large portfolios of residential buildings with high potential for energy performance improvements. In such environment, the economies of scale can be best validated. On the one side, many activities and technologies become cheaper per unit. On the other side, smart energy management systems work best in connected systems. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement no 680511. This document does not represent the opinion of the European Union, and the European Union is not responsible for any use that might be made of its content.
  4. 4. Replicable large-scale approach for residential NZEB renovation Unique'' (non*replicable)'' District*level' projects' Building' op: misa: on' DREEAM' *75%' Current'Market' Building'renova: on'' Complexity+ (Technically,+Financially,+ Socially)+ Using advanced analytical tools, DREEAM supports decision-making before, during, and after renovation, considering technical, financial and social factors. • Better integration of renewable energy • Enhance energy efficiency gains through renovation • Maximise energy efficiency renovation & renovation rate
  5. 5. The DREEAM approach
  6. 6. Integrated approach at scale The gaps in building owners’ decision-making process: • Strategy definition: development of investment strategies at portfolio level should start from long-term ambitions • Exploration of renovation solutions: solutions should be selected based on an optimal combination of measures realising the benefits of scale Portfolio investment planning Energy efficiency targets are the starting point for developing effective investment strategies. Backcasting approach is based on data driven analysis to move from single-building perspective into scaled processes. Projection of the BAU practices links long-term ambitions with real investment options, estimating the gap that stands between them. Typical (energy) renovation approach starts here Strategy development starts here Multi-building planning starts here
  7. 7. Upscaling investments in energy efficiency renovation Renovation options Investment pathwaysBuilding stock assessment Summary of relevant energy renovation packages  Overview of 2-3 suitable retrofit options per dwelling archetype  Various levels of renovation depending on energy savings target, investment requirement, operational concerns, etc. Target-driven design of pathways Taking a long term view (2040, 2050) and ideal outcomes as starting point Compare investment strategies Assess the impact (investment, Co2, energy savings, etc.) of alternative approaches. General overview of stock Analysing the portfolio’s current characteristics at dwelling level  Categorising buildings by archetype and construction year  Visualising results for easier interpretation Overview of the stock by theme Energy, financial, operational
  8. 8. 01 02Building Stock Assessment • Energy efficiency target: EPC label C by 2030 • Current status: 78% of the stock has energy label D • Buildings are geographically clustered by type and age Renovation Options Two different renovation packages per target group: • Shallow renovation: achieving minimum policy target • Deep renovation: achieving more ambitious performance Case study: UK housing association
  9. 9. 03 04 Gap to Policy Targets & Investment Scenarios • Current renovation strategy is based on “shallow renovations” prioritising older buildings. • BAU investment: £5M/year Insights & Conclusions • Projecting BAU approach, only 56% of the portfolio would reach EPC label C. • Alternative investment strategies need to be considered An integrated renovation approach would reduce the number of interventions, lowering investment costs per unit and decreasing energy bills. The component-based replacement programmes offer opportunities for quick gains in reducing energy bills for tenants.
  10. 10. Process: connected city housing ownership registry with building technical databases and national database on energy labels, covering 300 000 dwellings. Insights: linking building quality and characteristics with ownership structures led to a technical assistance programme tailored to each specific ownership type. Outcomes: Rotterdam has used the analysis to • develop a tailored renovation approach for each ownership structure; • change its organisational structure; • collaborate with the EIB to support home owners implement €100M investments in energy efficiency with an ELENA grant of €3M. Case study: Gemeente Rotterdam
  11. 11. Long-term impact: unlocking energy efficiency investments Key Insight Main Use Housing association: Berlin The BO follows the city of Berlin’s ambition to become energy neutral by 2050. They do not have any understanding on NZEB packages and their long-term investment costs. With the ambition to meet the policy objectives, the BO will use the results of the analysis to discuss new financial models with the city of Berlin to allow large scale renovation. Housing association: Turin Public housing association with a large portfolio of buildings but with strong financial constraints. Average rent is €100/m politically established. They currently do not follow a strategic approach for renovation. The BO will use the results of this analysis: • Explore potential long-term investments strategies to recover investments • Discuss with the regional government about the need to set up sustainable financial instruments for scaling up EE renovations Housing association: Yorkshire The BO has the policy push to have average portfolio EPC label C by 2030. They lack a long- term renovation plan and currently operate at unit level, based on a component replacement approach following a need-based evaluation. The BO will use the results of the analysis to: • Identify groups of buildings with similar characteristics where multi-building renovation could be performed, thus lowering costs • Explore financing options to unlock investments in EE
  12. 12. The value of scaled investment planning Housing associations could benefit from long-term planning vs current short-term financing based on available cash-flow: • Access to low-cost financing instruments for large investments; • Green value of the investments can affect the cost of capital and decision making; • Estimate ROI & assess revenue models Low Cost Financing Economy of Scale An integrated approach to improve overall system efficiency and ROI vs single technology perspective. Better Technology Integration Energy Demand Reduction Energy Generation Finding the optimal balance between the energy demand reduction and the energy generation NED reduction Social and public housing 45% 60% 75% Current Market Practice DREEAM approach
  13. 13. Interested in Sustainable Renovation? Buildingstock investment strategy A study outlining alternative renovation plans, which analyses the building stock and designs renovation options and investment planning. Who? Housing providers What? Multi-building renovation analysis or portfolio investment plan Cost? Free (as part of the DREEAM replication programme) How? dreeam.eu/getinvolved/ g. rinaldi@baxcompany.com Multi-buildingenergy renovation study A design study to identify the optimal combination of technologies that can deliver the highest energy reduction for a set of buildings
  14. 14. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the DREEAM project consortium: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement no 680511. This document does not represent the opinion of the European Union, and the European Union is not responsible for any use that might be made of its content.
  15. 15. https://timepac2019.blogspot.com If you would like to have more information about this presentation, please contact Email Giula Rinaldi: g.rinaldi@baxcompany.com

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