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Australia: Taking Bigger Steps | A.T. Kearney

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The prosperity that Australia enjoys today will be challenged in the next decade. Disruptive technology will create fewer but bigger winners and more losers. Business has to increase its risk appetite, discover new ideas, pursue more radical strategies, and take bigger steps. In the face of adversity, Australia must respond.

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Australia: Taking Bigger Steps | A.T. Kearney

  1. 1. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps
  2. 2. Are Australia’s best days over? Or ahead of us? Australia may be the envy of the world, but the country needs to do more to prepare for the imminent wave of technology disruptions. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps
  3. 3. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps GeopoliticalcohesionHighLow Low HighEconomic growth Regional trade agreements Commonisation Addressing climate change Rise of knowledge economy Automation and 3D printing Growth in sharing economy Globalisation 3.0 Increased prosperity Dramatic improvements in ICT Low commodity prices Polarisation Rising inequality Islandisation Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty Heightened nationalism and protectionism Return of geopolitics Four economic scenarios could play out on the world stage Note: ICT is information and communication technologies. Source: "From Globalization to Islandization," Global Business Policy Council Perspective, January 2016
  4. 4. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps Which scenario is most likely to unfold? Trade flow Capital flow Globalisation 3.0 Economic growth Unemployment Inequality Low Moderate High High High International migration High Regulatory convergence High Polarisation Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Islandisation Moderate High Low Low Low Low Low Commonisation Low Low Moderate Low Low Low Low Source: "From Globalization to Islandization," Global Business Policy Council Perspective, January 2016
  5. 5. Since 2014, increasing evidence points to “Islandisation” as the most likely scenario for Australia: • Global trade is falling and protectionism is rising • Many traditional fiscal and monetary policy instruments are no longer relevant • Fringe and populist political movements are on the rise • Geopolitics has returned • The international system is under serious strain Australia: Taking Bigger Steps
  6. 6. The lucky country Australia ranks second after Switzerland on The Economist’s where-to-be-born index, offering the best future to its newly born citizens. Can Australia maintain this position? Australia: Taking Bigger Steps
  7. 7. A formula for sustained prosperity Three areas stand out as critical enablers for Australian businesses: • Productivity • Innovation • Globalisation Australia: Taking Bigger Steps
  8. 8. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps Australia’s position does not appear strong enough to withstand the centripetal force of Islandisation Productivity Singapore Austria Finland Australia Canada Spain Italy 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Innovation Canada France Australia Norway Japan Belgium Spain 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Globalization Norway United Kindom France Australia Italy Poland Malaysia 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
  9. 9. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps 12 disruptive technologies will have profound implications for Australia’s economic structure Near term (now)1 Medium term (<5 years) Longer term (>5 years) Mobile technology and applications Cloud technology and applications Data, applications, and services stored, secured, managed, and accessible remotely Connected mobile devices and supported applications Internet of Things Renewable energy Systems that generate electricity from non-depleting natural resources Objects transferring data to one another Virtual reality 3D printing Successive layers of material formed under computer control to create an object Simulation of physical presence in a real or imagined world Blockchain Mechanism of storing ledgers across a network of connected computers Advanced robotics Machines with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence Genomics Reading and writing the genome of organisms, including humans Energy storage Devices that capture energy produced at one time for use at another Autonomous vehicles Driverless or self-directed machines Artificial intelligence Computer system capable of generating its own insights 1 Timing of impact defined as when technologies have “crossed the chasm” from early adopter (technology enthusiasts) to the early majority (pragmatists), Geoffrey A. Moore, Crossing the Chasm, HarperCollins, 1991 Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
  10. 10. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps The industrial impact It is not a question of if an industry will be disrupted, but rather when it will be disrupted, how many technologies will affect it, and to what degree.
  11. 11. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps No Australian industry is immune to technology disruption HighImpact: Low 1 Others include construction, wholesale trade, transportation, real estate, and government 2 ABS Cat. No. 5206.0, table 37, Jun 2015 3 ABS Cat. No. 6291.0, table 04 (seasonably adjusted), Nov 2015 Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Industry Select disruptive players GDP ($Bn)2 Disruptionimpact Mobiletech InternetofThings Cloudtechnology Renewableenergy Virtualreality Blockchain 3Dprinting Autonomousvehicles Artificialintelligence Energystorage Advancedrobotics Genomics Number of employees (k)3 Medium term Disruptors Near term Longer term Retail Health Manufacturing Telco and tech Utilities Finance Logistics Education Agriculture Tourism Others1 Total Mining Professional services Kogan.com, Amazon.com Scanadu Stratasys Tesla, Nest PiggyBee, FedEx Khan Academy Komatsu WhatsApp, Snapchat, Google Bitcoin, Nest, Simple The Climate Corporation Xero Airbnb 72 105 100 47 44 141 74 76 139 96 36 39 544 1,512 1,277 1,522 848 223 140 450 609 937 226 1,020 309 823 3,514 11,900 High Med
  12. 12. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps Defensive crouch Lower risk, lower growth potential • Double down on traditional core business • Structurally insulate from imminent disruptions • Limit or exit international investments Global offensive Higher risk, higher growth potential • Focus and invest in R&D and innovation • Take risks and embrace disruptions • Pursue new international opportunities 2003 World Cup Final The Wallabies pack down against England; Newspix 1991 World Cup David Campese, Man of the Tournament; INPHO What will Australia choose? Defensive crouch or aggressive offence? Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
  13. 13. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps Productivity Discrete, business unit-led programs Whole-of-company mega transformation Innovation Australia-focused innovation Innovation for the world Growth and globalisation Smaller, low-risk bets, proximal markets Bigger, long-term investments Companies must rise to the challenge and take bigger steps in three key areas Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
  14. 14. Australia: Taking Bigger Steps Carpe diem, Australia In the face of future adversity, how will Australian CEOs and boards respond? “If we want to change, the change begins with us.” ”If not you, then who? If not now, then when?”
  15. 15. For more information about Australia: Taking Bigger Steps, please visit: www.atkearney.com.au/strategy/ australia-taking-bigger-steps Australia: Taking Bigger Steps

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