1. Using Search to
Predict 2012
Presidential Election
Dr. Augustine Fou & John Real
http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal
November 4, 2012.

2. UPDATE: Obama Wins
-2- Augustine Fou

3. 2008 Presidential Election
Obama won
-3- Augustine Fou

4. Choosing Keyword
Most people are too lazy to type out the entire firstname + lastname
-4- Augustine Fou

5. 2008 vs 2012 Search still very
close
2008 Obama won 2012
election
-5- Augustine Fou

6. Assumptions
• Relative search volume reflects intensity of
interest (the opposite – lack of interest = apathy =
low turnout)
• People are rational and vote rationally
• Popular vote and electoral vote reflects
rational votes
more search volume = greater intensity of interest
-6- Augustine Fou

7. 2012 Presidential Election
Map of swing states
as of Sunday,
November 4, 2012.
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin
Source: Politico
-7- Augustine Fou

8. State-by-State Analysis
Colorado
-8- Augustine Fou

9. State-by-State Analysis
Florida
-9- Augustine Fou

10. State-by-State Analysis
Iowa
- 10 - Augustine Fou

11. State-by-State Analysis
Nevada
- 11 - Augustine Fou

12. State-by-State Analysis
New Hampshire
- 12 - Augustine Fou

13. State-by-State Analysis
North Carolina
- 13 - Augustine Fou

14. State-by-State Analysis
Ohio
- 14 - Augustine Fou

15. State-by-State Analysis
Virginia
- 15 - Augustine Fou

16. State-by-State Analysis
Wisconsin
- 16 - Augustine Fou

17. Search Intensity by State
Notice the states
with most intensity
that overlap
- 17 - Augustine Fou

18. News Mentions Ratio
News search could also include
bad news items like Romney
getting caught for staging
Hurricane Sandy Relief photo op.
- 18 - Augustine Fou

19. Shame on Romney Camp
Staged Ryan Soup Kitchen Photo Op
October 19
GM/Chrysler rebut Romeny’s release of
misleading information – LATimes, October 30
Staged Romney Sandy Hurricane Relief
November 1
- 19 - Augustine Fou

20. YouTube Views Ratio
We believe people will watch the
candidate they believe in, rather
than watch people you don’t like.
- 20 - Augustine Fou

21. 2012 Yahoo Search Data
- 21 - Augustine Fou

22. Compete Site Traffic
BarackObama.com
has 4x the website
traffic and pageviews
compared to
MittRomney.com
Source: Compete.com
Sept 2012 Data
- 22 - Augustine Fou

23. Social Mention Sentiment
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Source:
SocialMention
- 23 - Augustine Fou

24. Thinking of Switching?
- 24 - Augustine Fou

25. Our 2012 Search Prediction
Obama wins
- 25 - Augustine Fou

26. Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist
“I advise clients in using search
volume to get unique insights about
their customers – to inform
marketing and even innovation.”
FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23
ClickZ Articles: http://www.clickz.com/author/1151/augustine-fou
Slideshares: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
November 4, 2012 26
acfou@mktsci.com

27. John Real – Web 3.0 Innovator
John Real is a Digital Transformation and Performance
Analytics expert with significant experience helping
Fortune 500 and start-up clients: map paths to growth,
harness innovation and digital transformation, bring
new products / services / ventures to market and
commercialize new technologies.
He is also an independent global consulting partner
with OgilvyRed: the strategy & innovation center for
excellence of Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide and was
most recently executive director, CRM Platforms &
Innovation of OgilvyOne (the digital arm of Ogilvy.)
He began career in advertising followed by almost a
decade with the Interactive Multimedia and Digital
Marketing practices of McKinsey & Company and is a
graduate of Columbia University.
http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal
November 4, 2012 27

28. APPENDIX
- 28 - Augustine Fou

29. 2012 HuffPo Prediction
- 29 - Augustine Fou

30. 2012 Actual Result
- 30 - Augustine Fou

31. Other Resources
https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/insights
https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/explorer
- 31 - Augustine Fou

32. Palin lifted McCain 2008
- 32 - Augustine Fou

33. 2008 Results Map
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
- 33 - Augustine Fou

34. Ryan Barely Lifted Romney
- 34 - Augustine Fou

35. Biden Gives Small Lift to Obama
Only noticeable lift to Obama is after October 2012 debate
2008 2012
- 35 - Augustine Fou