Nuclear submarines have been proposed as shelters that could provide survival for hundreds of people in the event of various global catastrophes. They are designed to be robust and survive underwater independently for months or years. Existing military submarines could be converted to serve as shelters relatively cheaply by adding supplies. Nuclear submarines could protect against threats like nuclear war, pandemics, and asteroid impacts by moving to safe locations and being difficult to detect underwater. While not suitable for all risks, nuclear submarines represent a cheaper option than other proposed shelters like space colonies or bunkers.

1. Alexey Turchin, Brian Green
Nuclear submarines
as global catastrophic
risk shelters
Foundation Science for Life Extension
alexeiturchin@gmail.com

2. Seth Baum
Isolated refuges for surviving global catastrophes
http://sethbaum.com/ac/2015_Refuges.html
Nuclear submarines are
designed to be robust
survivors
Surface independence criteria:
• 0.5 - 5 years autonomy
• At least 400 meters below surface
• Could move throughout the ocean

3. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
designed to be robust
survivors
Military-grade survivability:
• Protection from pressure and shock waves
• Hiddenness
• Air independence
• Radiation protection

4. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
the cheapest solution
SSBN are cheaper than space colonies:
• They are already exist
• 1 trillion dollars spent on refining submarine
technology
• Collectively thousands of years of experience
• Rate of accidents becomes very low

5. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines
designed to survive
nuclear war
Subs were designed with nuclear war survival in mind
• Blast and EMP protection
• Radiation protection
• Able to move to Southern hemisphere, where will be less
radiation
• Able to go to the equator, where will be less ice in case of the
nuclear winter
• Able to survive under ice
• Not easy targets

6. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
the cheapest solution
SSBNs could serve as refuges while continuing to
perform other functions:
• Worldwide, there are 20 subs in the sea everyday
• Women are already in crews
• Addition of seeds, books and data could convert
them into refuges with small investment

7. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines
are better than bunkers
• They can move and not easy targets
• Could move to the safest place
• No looters or “infected friends”
• No need for air and water tubes on surface
• No heat dissipation problem
• Could go deeper because ocean is colder (no thermal
gradient problem)
• Already have nuclear power
• Information isolation: no Internet on board

8. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
better than Mars colony
• They already exist
• They are proved to be safe
• They are cheaper even in best realisation ерт
smallest Mars colony
• Mars colony autonomy is impossible without self-
replicating robots, which creates new risks
• Mars colony is easy target in case of war

9. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines have
their own energy source
• 25-50 years of operation for contemporary
reactors
• No heat dissipation problem
• No need for fuel or air
• Could be replaced by water turbines, generating
electricity from currents

10. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines:
own supplies
• Oxygen generation from water
• Water desalination
• Plankton filtering is possible as source of food

11. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines
could provide survival for
different catastrophes:
• Nuclear war with large radiological contamination and
nuclear winter
• Biological war or pandemic, especially slow and hidden
• Asteroid impacts and nuclear winter
• Short term but intense global warming
• Mutiny of a drone army
• Gamma ray burst
• Supervoclanic event

12. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines will
not help for too large
high-tech catastrophe
• Unfriendly AI
• Grey goo of nanobots
• LHC catastrophe creates mini blackhole

13. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.

14. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Food for 5 years could be
stored in missile shafts
• Unfriendly AI
• Grey goo of nanobots
• LHC catastrophe creates mini blackhole

15. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Ohio-class SSBN
has crew of 155
• Minimal survivable population is around 100
• Eggs and sperm could be frozen
• Starting in 2010, women joined US submarine
crews

16. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Submarine needs a
remote island to dock
• Submarines are good for surviving a short-term,
intense event
• Islands are good for long-term survival of medium
intensity event
• Islands could be good starting points for human
recovery

17. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Levels of realisation of
the project:
• Cheap: add some books and seeds to already
existing subs,1 mln USD, 6 month survival.
• Medium: convert decommissioned Ohio-class
submarine in “Yellow submarine”, 1 bn USD, 5 years
survival.
• High: create fleet of the ark-submarines from
scratch, 200 bn USD (still cheaper than ISS) - 20
years survival.

18. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Funding
• Negative price is possible: Navy could pay
from its advertising budgets for small scale
realisation
• Billionaires: Personal refuge + yacht +
recreational home + wildlife observation
• Space programs: Nuclear submarines could be
test environment for long-term survival in space

19. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Conclusion
• Nuclear submarines could be effective refuges from several types of global
catastrophes
• Existing military submarines could be upgraded for this function with relatively
low cost
• Contemporary submarines could provide several months of surface
independence
• A specially designed fleet of nuclear submarines could potentially survive years
or even decades under water
• Nuclear submarine refuges could be a step towards the creation of space
refuges

20. The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)
On the ground
Distance from typical habitats
Underground On the sea Under the sea
Antarctic
bases
Number of shelters:
more than 10
Number of people: hun-
dreds
Independent survivabil-
ity: 1-5 years
Ability to re-create civi-
lization: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
pandemics, nuclear winter,
fallout
Uncontacted
tribes
Number of shelters:
around 10
Number of people: tho-
sands
Independent survivabil-
ity: thousands years
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: medium
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
some types of pandemics
Remote
villages
Number of shelters: thou-
sands or more
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: almost indefinite
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
pandemics
Random
survivors
Number of shelters: de-
pends of type of catastrophe
Number of people: un-
known
Independent survivabil-
ity: months
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: low
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
stochastic events
Air planes
Tesla cars
with biosafety
system
Number of shelters: many
thousands
Number of people: thou-
sands
Independent survivabil-
ity: days
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: medium
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
pandemic
Price: included
Mines, caves
and subways
Number of shelters: thou-
sands
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: days
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
explosions and acute fallout
Bomb shelters
and commercial shelters
Number of shelters: many
thousands
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: days, may be weeks
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
explosions and acute fallout
Cold war com-
mand centers and
underground cities
Number of shelters: around 10
Number of people: unknown, may-
be hundreds
Independent survivability: years
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: could be targeted in
war
Best protection against: explo-
sions, fallout, pandemics
Ships
Number of shelters: many
thousands
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: 1 year for some, may be
more
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
explosions, pandemics
Islands
Number of shelters:
thousands
Number of people: mil-
lions
Independent survivabil-
ity: indefinite
Ability to re-create civi-
lization: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
pandemics
Nuclear
submarines
Number of shelters: 10-
100
Number of people: thou-
sands
Independent survivabil-
ity: around 1 year
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
explosions and acute fallout
International
space station
Number of shelters: 1
Number of people: 6
Independent survivabil-
ity: 3 monthes- 1 years
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: low
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
short, but covering all earth
surface catastrophe (air-
borne pandemics)
Time
Refugesthatarecurrentlyinexistence;Typesofrisks:nuclearwar,
multi-pandemics,supervolcanicexplosion
Ship wrecks,
rafts
Number of shelters: de-
pends of a type of a catas-
trophe
Number of people: un-
known, maybe hundreds
Independent survivabil-
ity: months
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: low
Vulnerability: high to natu-
ral causes
Best protection against:
pandemics
Distributed net of
survivalists
Includes hoards with food
Trained people
Number of shelters: depends of
type of catastrophe
Number of people: thousands?
Independent survivability: months
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: stochastic
events, pandemics, nuclear war
In near space Remote space
Doomsday vault
facilities which will help to rec-
reate civilization by preserving
important knowledge, instru-
ments, seeds, resources, but
not people
Number of shelters: now one
Number of people: thousands?
Independent survivability:
months
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: sto-
chastic events, pandemics, nuclear
war
Converting
ALL existing
nuclear
submarines
in temporary
asylums in
short notice
(~6 months)
“Preppers”
People, who prepare to smaller
catastrophe and stock food
Number of people: 3 million people
in US
Independent survivability: months
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: stochastic
events, pandemics, nuclear war
Food storages, and chemically syn-
thesised food, see work of Denken-
berger

21. © Alexey Turchin, 2016, CC3.0
“Clever”
houses with
reinforcement
Number of shelters: mil-
lions??
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: months
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
pandemics, small impacts
and nuclear war
Price: high
Very deep
shelters
1 km deep with independent
energy sources
Number of shelters: several
Number of people: thousands
Independent survivability:
years
Ability to re-create civilization:
medium
Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
high to human hostile action
Best protection against: pan-
demic
Price: very high, many billions dol-
lars
Risks: it could be places which
benefit from extinction event, start
an attack or make secret danger-
ous research
Sea steading
Independent living communities
at sea
Number of shelters: several
Number of people: thousands
Independent survivability:
years
Ability to re-create civiliza-
tion: medium
Vulnerability: low to natural
risks, high to human hostile ac-
tion
Best protection against: pan-
demic
Price: very high, billions dollars
Specially rebuilt
nuclear submarine
(“project Yellow
submarine”)
Number of shelters: several
Number of people: thousands
Independent survivability: years
Ability to re-create civilization:
medium
Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
high to human hostile action
Best protection against: pandemic
Price: very high
Risks: could be targeted during nu-
clear war
Could provide defence against gam-
ma-ray burst with large surface radia-
tion levels
Underwater
town
seems not to have much
value as it would be
vulnerable
Moon base
Number of shelters: one
Number of people: dozens
Independent survivability: years
Ability to re-create civilization:
low
Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
high to human hostile action
Best protection against: pandemic
Price: dozens of billions dollars
Risks: could be converted into nu-
clear military base by state actor,
and used in nuclear war, or attacked
Mars base
(Musk plan)
Number of shelters: one
Number of people: thousand or even million
Independent survivability: indefinite
Ability to re-create civilization: medium, de-
pends of robotics and many unknowns
Vulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human
hostile action
Best protection against: pandemics, impacts,
earth-limited catastrophes, including collider acci-
dents and grey goo
Price: trillions of dollars
Risks: could be targeted in space war or participate
in it as actor
Risks: transportation fleet could be used as kinetic
weapon
Risks: opportunity cost because of high price
Orion nuclear
powered
generation ship
Number of shelters: one
Number of people: thousand or even
million
Independent survivability:
hundreds of years
Ability to re-create civilization:
medium, depends of many unknown
Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
high to human hostile action, high
probability of accidents and failure in-
side the ship
Best protection against: pandemics,
impacts, earth-limited catastrophes,
including collider accidents and grey
goo
Price: trillions of dollars
Risks: could be targeted in space war
or participate in it as actor
Risks: the ship itself could explode,
be used as a weapon or a source of
weapons, as it has 100 000 nukes for
propulsion
Risks: opportunity cost because of
high price
Couldbebuiltusingexistingtechin10-30years
Hightechsheltersagainsthi-techrisks,which
couldbebuiltafter30-100yearsfromnow
Remote moons in So-
lar system, comets,
asteroids, Oort cloud
Use of self-replicating ro-
bots and manufacturing
nanotechnology for build-
ing infrastructure, creation
of millions of habitats
Number of shelters: millions
Number of people: millions
Independent survivability: indefinite
Ability to re-create civilization: high
Vulnerability: low to natural risks, high
to unfriendly AI
Best protection against: pandemics, im-
pacts, earth-limited catastrophes, includ-
ing collider accidents and grey goo
Price: may be the small, just one first na-
norobot
Risks of space war or space grey goo
Risks of kinetic space weapons
Risks of extremely large artificial explo-
sions inside gas planets or of the creation
of very large nukes
Risk of wrong command to the whole sys-
tem
High speed
nano-starships,
starting coloni-
sation wave
Number of shelters: millions
Number of people: DNA sam-
ples or uploads
Independent survivability:
high
Ability to re-create civiliza-
tion: high
Vulnerability: low to natural
risks, medium to unfriendly AI
Best protection against: al-
most everything except false
vacuum decay and strong UFAI
Price: may be the small, just
one first nanorobot
Risks of space war or space
grey goo
Risks of laser weapons based in
space which are able to target
everything
Nanotech based
homes
are able to with-
stand any external
influences as adap-
tive shield
Nanotech based
microscopic
shelters
Deep in Earth’s
crust, which are
running humans as
uploads and are in-
visible to any exter-
nal hostile surveil-
lance.
Immortal bodies
Upgraded human be-
ings able to survive in
space and any hostile
environment
Isolated
biospheres
Closed cycle projects
Number of shelters: several
Number of people: thousands?
Independent survivability:
years
Ability to re-create civiliza-
tion: high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: pan-
demics, nuclear war
Digital shelters
Something like secret
location of uploads in
global digital network,
or secret recordings of
human DNA and con-
nectome
They may help to sur-
vive some form of Un-
friendly AI, if it is not
omnipotent
Special anti-ex-
tinction shelter
in remote place
as suggested by
Karim Jebari
Number of shelters: at least
one
Number of people: 100
Independent survivability:
30+ years
Ability to re-create civiliza-
tion: high
Vulnerability: low to natural
risks, medieum to human hostile
action
Best protection against: pan-
demic, nuclear war
Price: from 2 to 15 billions dol-
lars
Place: secret fertile land (Alaski-
an island?)
Power: nuclear
Special refug-
es built exactly
to much known
type and type
of a catastrophe
after warning
Phil Torres space
bunkers
Basic independent space station
Number of people: 200 in each
Independent survivability: dec-
ades
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: low
Best protection against: stochastic
events, pandemics, nuclear war
Very large air
blimps