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One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
- 1. Andy Yan One Percent Flood Levels in New York City Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
- 2. New York City A History of the Land
- 7. Based upon August 2013 1% Flood FEMA Flood Elevations (Zone AE, AO, and VE), this study combines spatial datasets from: • NYC Open Data • The City of New York Planning Department • Citywide Administrative Districts • Land Use Zoning • Primary Land Use Tax Lot Output (PLUTO) • The City of New York Department of Finance • FY 2014 Final Assessment Roll • Federal Government • 2010 Census Block Groups • 2012 Census Estimates for Total Population • 2010 US Census Summary File One •Note: The estimates and maps in this document are for a high level discussion Study Methodology and Data Sources
- 8. Source: NYC OpenData New York City Today Total Land Mass: 304 Square Miles
- 9. New York City 100 Year Flood Plain Scenario FEMA Base Flood Elevation Total Affected Land Mass: 47 Square Miles or 16 percent of Total City Land Mass Source: NYC OpenData Land Area Under 1% Base Flood Elevation
- 10. New York City What does 47 square miles look like? 36 Central Parks (1.3 sq miles) About 1 City of San Francisco (49.9 sq miles) Source: Google Maps
- 11. New York City by Borough Today Total Land Area (in square miles): Borough Total Land Area % of Total Land Area Bronx 43 14% Brooklyn 70 23% Manhattan 23 8% Queens 109 36% Staten Island 58 19% Total 303 100% Source: NYC OpenData
- 12. New York City by Borough 1 Percent Flood Elevation Scenario FEMA Base Flood Elevation Borough Area (in Square Miles) Area under Flood Elevation % of Total Land Mass Staten Island 58 11 19.5% Queens 109 17 15.8% Brooklyn 70 11 16.3% Manhattan 23 3 14.0% Bronx 43 4 9.9% Total 303 47 15.7% Source: NYC OpenData
- 13. New York City by Dominant Zoning Today Type of Dominant Land Use Zoning % of Land Mass Battery Park City 0.0% Commercial 4.8% Manufacturing 14.1% Park/Recreational 13.4% Residential 67.7% Grand Total 100.0% Source: NYC OpenData
- 14. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Today Source: NYC OpenData
- 15. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Under 1% Flood Elevation Source: NYC OpenData
- 16. New York City by Zoning Under 1% Flood Elevation Source: NYC OpenData
- 17. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Total Zoning Percentage Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land mass between Zoning and Land Mass data layers Source: NYC OpenData 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Area Under a 1% Floodplain
- 18. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Feet - 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 Area Under a 1% Floodplain Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land mass between Zoning and Land Mass data layers Source: NYC OpenData
- 19. General Land Use (in Square feet) Area Under a 1% Flood Elevation Total % Large Open Amusement Parks 1,717,679 1,863,201 92% Waterfront Recreational Activities 9,927,306 18,569,273 54% Light and Heavy Industrial Areas 219,266,535 413,720,947 53% Park 314,966,666 1,095,637,163 29% Battery Park City 1,041,830 3,945,625 26% Manufacturing with 1 or 2 story warehouses characterized by loading bays 115,859,696 764,622,857 15% Bridging Commercial and Manufacturing Uses 11,878,955 101,772,574 12% One and Two Family Houses 375,105,007 3,458,333,644 11% High-Bulk Commercial Uses Requiring a Central Location 9,431,704 87,373,608 11% Regional Commercial Centers 14,629,831 142,373,433 10% Lower-Density Residence Districts 56,915,927 753,243,056 8% Central Commercial District 2,717,653 36,540,297 7% High Density Residential 2,008,334 28,313,991 7% Moderate- and higher-density residence districts 85,735,882 1,410,707,934 6% Commercial Districts (Predominant Residential) 1,660,534 29,483,626 6% Total* 1,222,863,540 8,346,501,231 14.7% New York City by General Land Use Zoning Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Footage Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land mass between Zoning and Land Mass data layers Source: NYC OpenData
- 20. Source: NYC PLUTO • Number of Properties: 64,600 or 7.5% of all properties in the City of New York • Number of Housing Units: 325,000 units or 9% of total City Stock New York City Properties Under 1% Flood Elevation 85 1,191 7,333 15,532 20,666 7,080 4,678 8,793 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Buildings in Flood Elevation by Year Built
- 21. New York City Individual Landmarks Under 1% Flood Elevation Lower Manhattan And Northeastern Brooklyn Inset • 8 percent of Designated Individual Landmarks Source: NYC PLUTO
- 22. Source: NYC Pluto, NYTimes Full Value of all Properties in New York City: $1 trillion Full Value of Properties under a 1% Flood Elevation: $111 billion NYC Climate Adaptation Plan Estimated Costs: $20 billion New York City Property Values Under 1% Flood Elevation
- 23. Source: 2010 US Census with 2012 Population Projections 2012 Total Population of New York City: 8.3 million 2012 Total Population living in an 1% Flood Zone in New York City: 1.3 million 23% of Total Population Living under the Flood Elevation is Hispanic vs 18% of Total NYC 60% of Total Households Living under the Flood Elevation are renters vs 47% of Total NYC New York City Population Under 1% Flood Elevation Legend 2012 Total Population by Census Block 0 - 1,000 1,001 - 2,000 2,001 - 2,500 2,501 - 5,000 5,001 - 11,095
- 24. Source: New York City Population Projections by Age/Sex & Borough Briefing Booklet, 2006 Gehry Towers 76 stories, 903 apartments At 1,000,000 new residents ~438 towers At 800,000 new residents ~263 towers 97 Orchard Street 6 stories, 20 apartments At 1,000,000 new residents ~19,608 buildings At 800,000 new residents ~15,686 buildings More People on Less Land By 2030, New York City is projected to grow by 1,000,000 people
- 25. Source: PlanNYC. Coastal Protection, A Stronger, More Resilient New York, p.45 2050: 72 square miles of New York City is in a 100 year floodplain 1983: 33 square miles of New York City Is in a 100 year floodplain New York City Floodplains in the Future
- 26. New York City 1% Floodplains in the Future 2020s Source: NYC OpenData
- 27. New York City 1% Floodplains in the Future 2050s Source: NYC OpenData
- 28. New York City 1% Floodplains in the Future 2080s Source: NYC OpenData
- 29. Planning Resilience in New York City Commissioners’ Plan of 1811