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Online Campaigning in
Baden-Württemberg and
beyond
Studien- und Dialogprogramm
für Wahlkampfexperten aus Europa
Stuttgart, 25.03.2011
                        Marko Bachl
2
     Agenda




1    Internet Usage: Some General Trends and Figures



2    Traditional and Less Traditional Websites



3    Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going on Within the Social Web?



4    Discussion


                                                          Marko Bachl, M.A.
Internet Usage: Some
General Trends and Figures
4
           A Quick Refresher: Internet Usage in Germany

100                                                                                                             14-19 Y.
                                                                                                                20-29 Y.
 90                                                                                                             30-39 Y.

 80                                                                                                             40-49 Y.

 70                                                                                                             50-59 Y.

 60
 50
                                                                                                      Total
 40
 30                                                                                                               60 +
 20
 10
   0
        1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Internet users in Germany (in %), 1997-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
                                                                                                        Marko Bachl, M.A.
5
           Social Media Usage in Germany

100
                                                                                             2007     2008   2009   2010
 90

 80
                                                                                                             Total
 70

 60

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

  0
            Wikipedia          Video (YouTube)        Social Networks              Blogs                 Twitter


Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
                                                                                                         Marko Bachl, M.A.
6
           Social Media Usage in Germany

100
                                                                                             2007     2008   2009   2010
 90

 80
                                                                                                      19-29 Years
 70

 60

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

  0
            Wikipedia          Video (YouTube)        Social Networks              Blogs                 Twitter


Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
                                                                                                         Marko Bachl, M.A.
7
           Social Media Usage in Germany

100
                                                                                             2007     2008   2009   2010
 90

 80
                                                                                                      14-19 Years
 70

 60

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

  0
            Wikipedia          Video (YouTube)        Social Networks              Blogs                 Twitter


Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
                                                                                                         Marko Bachl, M.A.
8
           Political Information – Does the Internet
           Matter?

        On the one hand…                                               On the other hand…

                              Radio 3,2

            Newspaper
                                           Internet 5,5
              21,5                                                                            1-2 days 14,8



                                       Conversation                 not at all
                                           9,2                        75,0                      3-4 days 7,3
     TV 58,6
                                    other 2,1                                                5+ days 2,9




    What is your main source of                           On how many days a week did you use the
    campaign news? (in %)                                 internet to gather political information? (in %)

Sources of information and political online news in the 2009 campaign
GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, N = 4.057/2.067; Germans from the age of 18 up
                                                                                            Marko Bachl, M.A.
9
           Who are the Political Onliners?

                                                                                           41% high political interest

   62% male




   43% younger than 30
                                                                                                   More likely to be
                                                                                                voters of Bündnis 90 /
                                                                                                 Die Grünen and FDP
                                                                                               (after adjusting for age)

51% High School degree




Young, well educated, and highly involved in politics
GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, n = 183; Germans from the age of 18 up; main information source is the internet
                                                                   Foto: Cavan Images; via Flickr      Marko Bachl, M.A.
Traditional and Less
Traditional Websites
11
            Little Surprise: All Parties have Up-to-date
            Websites

                 CDU             FDP         SPD        Grüne



Party




Candidate




             integrated in   integrated in           integrated in
Campaign
             party website   party website           party website


                                                        Marko Bachl, M.A.
12
But Website Development still Seems to be
Campaign-driven…
                  21.2.2011




                                       Marko Bachl, M.A.
13
But Website Development still Seems to be
Campaign-driven…
                  21.2.2011


                                    1.3.2011




                                       Marko Bachl, M.A.
14
      Traditional Websites

 All parties present up-to-date websites
     Party websites as well as candidate websites; SPD: campaign page
     well designed, use of latest web technology

 Main functions
     Presentation of all imaginable information on the party, politicians,
      political programs and campaign activities
     Information hub for all online activities on other platforms

 Big step forward compared to earlier (state) elections
 Main mistake: information and design overload
     Usability suffers from huge amount of information and design gimmicks
     It's quality not quantity that counts!

                                                                        Marko Bachl, M.A.
15
       Less Traditional Websites – Negative
       Campaigning Sites of the CDU




 Schlinger-Partei SPD    Dagegen-Partei Grüne        Faktencheck BW
 Exposes the SPD as      Reports projects        Delivers counter-
  ‘flip-flopper party’     that are obstructed      arguments against
 Combines a fun           by Die Grünen            policy plans of SPD
  quiz format with        Appeals to partisans     and Die Grüne
  negative                 to report such          First impression:
  campaigning              projects in their        non-partisan blog
                           neighborhoods

                                                               Marko Bachl, M.A.
16
      Online Negative Campaigning

 Negative campaigning is (and has been) a general characteristic of
  online campaigns, often combined with humor (not only CDU)
     Calculation of campaigners: less boomerang effects as ‘official’ politicians
      can distance themselves more easily; stays out of broader public


 Target group: mostly own partisans
     NC engages and motivates by highlighting differences to opponents
     NC delivers arguments for political (online) discussions (see Faktencheck)


 Research shows that NC is very effective online campaign content
     First glance: Promising approach for campaign managers
     BUT: Long term consequences for political culture? NC may enhance
      polarization beyond the accepted threshold of a political controversy

                                                                        Marko Bachl, M.A.
Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going
on Within the Social Web?
18
            Selected Social Web Activities by Party

                   CDU                   FDP   SPD    Grüne

Party




Candidate




Campaign
(example)
             Unser Land: Zu schade für
                   Rot-Grün-Rot

                                                      Marko Bachl, M.A.
19
       YouTube – the Hidden Giant

 Video platforms as YouTube are among the most wide-spread social
  media applications: basically every young person uses them
 USA: one in four political onliners forwards political online videos
 Nevertheless, YouTube is widely disregarded in public discussion


 Baden-Württemberg election:
     All parties have regularly fed YouTube channels;
     In addition independently distributed channels/videos by candidates
 BUT: Not a single successful campaign-produced video
     Most often boring, irrelevant content
 Influential distribution of ‘voter-generated content’

                                                                    Marko Bachl, M.A.
20
                            YouTube – the Hidden Giant… for the Worse


Final result: non-trivial
view count of an
embarrassing video;
(comparison: FDP TV-
spot < 5.000; CDU TV-
Spot: 48.877)




                                      almost one month



             10.2.: just another         2.3.: the viral spiral starts:   15.3.: viral spiral enforcement:
             boring political video      first time embedded at           embedded in A-list-blogs  Marko Bachl, M.A.
             on YouTube                  facebook.com                     netzpolitik.org and spreeblick
21
YouTube – the Hidden Giant… even worse




                                     Marko Bachl, M.A.
22
      YouTube – the Hidden Giant

 Success factors for campaign videos on YouTube (2009):
     Most successful: official TV-spots
     Relevant issue (2009: financial and economic policy)
     Humor and Negative Campaigning



 Beware:
     YouTube never forgets
     Everything can go viral
     YouTube can present powerful pictures – against you
     YouTube is becoming a source for traditional online and broadcasting
      media – therefore, YT videos may reach a mass audience


                                                                    Marko Bachl, M.A.
23
            Selected Social Web Activities by Party

                   CDU                   FDP   SPD    Grüne

Party




Candidate




Campaign
(example)
             Unser Land: Zu schade für
                   Rot-Grün-Rot

                                                      Marko Bachl, M.A.
24
     Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid




“Thank you for your comment!”   “Where am I? Where will I go?”

                                                      Marko Bachl, M.A.
25
     Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid




“Thank you for your comment!”   “Where am I? Where will I go?”

                                                      Marko Bachl, M.A.
26
            Selected Social Web Activities by Party

                   CDU                   FDP   SPD    Grüne

Party




Candidate




Campaign
(example)
             Unser Land: Zu schade für
                   Rot-Grün-Rot

                                                      Marko Bachl, M.A.
27
              Facebook/Twitter: Discussions and Mocking




 Highly polarized discussions – mainly             Marko Bachl, M.A.


  on the CDU/Mappus pages
28
       Social Media: Illusions of Majorities




 The number of Facebook ‘friends’,
  ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate
  and illusion of majorities
 Traditional mass media report these
  numbers like opinion polls and               Marko Bachl, M.A.
  reinforce the illusion
29
       Social Media: Illusions of Majorities




 The number of Facebook ‘friends’,
  ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate
  and illusion of majorities
 Traditional mass media report these
  numbers like opinion polls and               Marko Bachl, M.A.
  reinforce the illusion
30
      Campaigning 2.0
      What’s Going on Within the Social Net?

 Conclusion – Campaigners:
    All parties serve almost every social media channel
    BUT: only very limited real engagement; traditional push communication
    Positive example: for a limited number of political onliners, the Facebook
     pages of the parties are a well-used meeting point



 Conclusion – Voters:
     Highly polarized online electorate  a lot of bashing, little discussion
     Active political onliners still seem to be a minority, but very active
      (within both political camps)
     Weak signs of a evolving political blogosphere / twittersphere
     Special case Stuttgart 21: counter public via social media
         Best example: fluegel.tv
                                                                          Marko Bachl, M.A.
Discussion
32
Contact Information



      Marko Bachl
      Institut für Kommunikationswissenschaft
      Fruwirthstraße 46
      70599 Stuttgart
      Tel: 0711/ 459-22866
      E-Mail: marko.bachl@uni-hohenheim.de
      Web: www.komm.uni-hohenheim.de/bachl.html
      Twitter: @bachl




                                                  Marko Bachl, M.A.

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Online Campaigning in Baden-Württemberg and beyond

  • 1. Online Campaigning in Baden-Württemberg and beyond Studien- und Dialogprogramm für Wahlkampfexperten aus Europa Stuttgart, 25.03.2011 Marko Bachl
  • 2. 2 Agenda 1  Internet Usage: Some General Trends and Figures 2  Traditional and Less Traditional Websites 3  Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going on Within the Social Web? 4  Discussion Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 3. Internet Usage: Some General Trends and Figures
  • 4. 4 A Quick Refresher: Internet Usage in Germany 100 14-19 Y. 20-29 Y. 90 30-39 Y. 80 40-49 Y. 70 50-59 Y. 60 50 Total 40 30 60 + 20 10 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Internet users in Germany (in %), 1997-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up) Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 5. 5 Social Media Usage in Germany 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 90 80 Total 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs Twitter Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up) Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 6. 6 Social Media Usage in Germany 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 90 80 19-29 Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs Twitter Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up) Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 7. 7 Social Media Usage in Germany 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 90 80 14-19 Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs Twitter Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010 (Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up) Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 8. 8 Political Information – Does the Internet Matter? On the one hand… On the other hand… Radio 3,2 Newspaper Internet 5,5 21,5 1-2 days 14,8 Conversation not at all 9,2 75,0 3-4 days 7,3 TV 58,6 other 2,1 5+ days 2,9 What is your main source of On how many days a week did you use the campaign news? (in %) internet to gather political information? (in %) Sources of information and political online news in the 2009 campaign GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, N = 4.057/2.067; Germans from the age of 18 up Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 9. 9 Who are the Political Onliners? 41% high political interest 62% male 43% younger than 30 More likely to be voters of Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen and FDP (after adjusting for age) 51% High School degree Young, well educated, and highly involved in politics GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, n = 183; Germans from the age of 18 up; main information source is the internet Foto: Cavan Images; via Flickr Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 11. 11 Little Surprise: All Parties have Up-to-date Websites CDU FDP SPD Grüne Party Candidate integrated in integrated in integrated in Campaign party website party website party website Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 12. 12 But Website Development still Seems to be Campaign-driven… 21.2.2011 Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 13. 13 But Website Development still Seems to be Campaign-driven… 21.2.2011 1.3.2011 Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 14. 14 Traditional Websites  All parties present up-to-date websites  Party websites as well as candidate websites; SPD: campaign page  well designed, use of latest web technology  Main functions  Presentation of all imaginable information on the party, politicians, political programs and campaign activities  Information hub for all online activities on other platforms  Big step forward compared to earlier (state) elections  Main mistake: information and design overload  Usability suffers from huge amount of information and design gimmicks  It's quality not quantity that counts! Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 15. 15 Less Traditional Websites – Negative Campaigning Sites of the CDU Schlinger-Partei SPD Dagegen-Partei Grüne Faktencheck BW  Exposes the SPD as  Reports projects  Delivers counter- ‘flip-flopper party’ that are obstructed arguments against  Combines a fun by Die Grünen policy plans of SPD quiz format with  Appeals to partisans and Die Grüne negative to report such  First impression: campaigning projects in their non-partisan blog neighborhoods Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 16. 16 Online Negative Campaigning  Negative campaigning is (and has been) a general characteristic of online campaigns, often combined with humor (not only CDU)  Calculation of campaigners: less boomerang effects as ‘official’ politicians can distance themselves more easily; stays out of broader public  Target group: mostly own partisans  NC engages and motivates by highlighting differences to opponents  NC delivers arguments for political (online) discussions (see Faktencheck)  Research shows that NC is very effective online campaign content  First glance: Promising approach for campaign managers  BUT: Long term consequences for political culture? NC may enhance polarization beyond the accepted threshold of a political controversy Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 17. Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going on Within the Social Web?
  • 18. 18 Selected Social Web Activities by Party CDU FDP SPD Grüne Party Candidate Campaign (example) Unser Land: Zu schade für Rot-Grün-Rot Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 19. 19 YouTube – the Hidden Giant  Video platforms as YouTube are among the most wide-spread social media applications: basically every young person uses them  USA: one in four political onliners forwards political online videos  Nevertheless, YouTube is widely disregarded in public discussion  Baden-Württemberg election:  All parties have regularly fed YouTube channels;  In addition independently distributed channels/videos by candidates  BUT: Not a single successful campaign-produced video  Most often boring, irrelevant content  Influential distribution of ‘voter-generated content’ Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 20. 20 YouTube – the Hidden Giant… for the Worse Final result: non-trivial view count of an embarrassing video; (comparison: FDP TV- spot < 5.000; CDU TV- Spot: 48.877) almost one month 10.2.: just another 2.3.: the viral spiral starts: 15.3.: viral spiral enforcement: boring political video first time embedded at embedded in A-list-blogs Marko Bachl, M.A. on YouTube facebook.com netzpolitik.org and spreeblick
  • 21. 21 YouTube – the Hidden Giant… even worse Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 22. 22 YouTube – the Hidden Giant  Success factors for campaign videos on YouTube (2009):  Most successful: official TV-spots  Relevant issue (2009: financial and economic policy)  Humor and Negative Campaigning  Beware:  YouTube never forgets  Everything can go viral  YouTube can present powerful pictures – against you  YouTube is becoming a source for traditional online and broadcasting media – therefore, YT videos may reach a mass audience Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 23. 23 Selected Social Web Activities by Party CDU FDP SPD Grüne Party Candidate Campaign (example) Unser Land: Zu schade für Rot-Grün-Rot Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 24. 24 Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid “Thank you for your comment!” “Where am I? Where will I go?” Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 25. 25 Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid “Thank you for your comment!” “Where am I? Where will I go?” Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 26. 26 Selected Social Web Activities by Party CDU FDP SPD Grüne Party Candidate Campaign (example) Unser Land: Zu schade für Rot-Grün-Rot Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 27. 27 Facebook/Twitter: Discussions and Mocking  Highly polarized discussions – mainly Marko Bachl, M.A. on the CDU/Mappus pages
  • 28. 28 Social Media: Illusions of Majorities  The number of Facebook ‘friends’, ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate and illusion of majorities  Traditional mass media report these numbers like opinion polls and Marko Bachl, M.A. reinforce the illusion
  • 29. 29 Social Media: Illusions of Majorities  The number of Facebook ‘friends’, ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate and illusion of majorities  Traditional mass media report these numbers like opinion polls and Marko Bachl, M.A. reinforce the illusion
  • 30. 30 Campaigning 2.0 What’s Going on Within the Social Net?  Conclusion – Campaigners:  All parties serve almost every social media channel  BUT: only very limited real engagement; traditional push communication  Positive example: for a limited number of political onliners, the Facebook pages of the parties are a well-used meeting point  Conclusion – Voters:  Highly polarized online electorate  a lot of bashing, little discussion  Active political onliners still seem to be a minority, but very active (within both political camps)  Weak signs of a evolving political blogosphere / twittersphere  Special case Stuttgart 21: counter public via social media  Best example: fluegel.tv Marko Bachl, M.A.
  • 32. 32 Contact Information Marko Bachl Institut für Kommunikationswissenschaft Fruwirthstraße 46 70599 Stuttgart Tel: 0711/ 459-22866 E-Mail: marko.bachl@uni-hohenheim.de Web: www.komm.uni-hohenheim.de/bachl.html Twitter: @bachl Marko Bachl, M.A.