Online Campaigning in Baden-Württemberg and beyond. Vortrag im Studien- und Dialogprogramm
für Wahlkampfexperten aus Europa
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Stuttgart, 25.03.2011
Ein kurzer Überblick über den Online-Wahlkampf in Baden-Württemberg vor der Landtagswahl 2011
2. 2
Agenda
1 Internet Usage: Some General Trends and Figures
2 Traditional and Less Traditional Websites
3 Campaigning 2.0 – What’s Going on Within the Social Web?
4 Discussion
Marko Bachl, M.A.
4. 4
A Quick Refresher: Internet Usage in Germany
100 14-19 Y.
20-29 Y.
90 30-39 Y.
80 40-49 Y.
70 50-59 Y.
60
50
Total
40
30 60 +
20
10
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Internet users in Germany (in %), 1997-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
Marko Bachl, M.A.
5. 5
Social Media Usage in Germany
100
2007 2008 2009 2010
90
80
Total
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs Twitter
Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
Marko Bachl, M.A.
6. 6
Social Media Usage in Germany
100
2007 2008 2009 2010
90
80
19-29 Years
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs Twitter
Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
Marko Bachl, M.A.
7. 7
Social Media Usage in Germany
100
2007 2008 2009 2010
90
80
14-19 Years
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Wikipedia Video (YouTube) Social Networks Blogs Twitter
Users of social media applications in Germany, 2007-2010
(Source: ARD/ZDF-Online-Studie, at least occasional usage, German population from the age of 14 up)
Marko Bachl, M.A.
8. 8
Political Information – Does the Internet
Matter?
On the one hand… On the other hand…
Radio 3,2
Newspaper
Internet 5,5
21,5 1-2 days 14,8
Conversation not at all
9,2 75,0 3-4 days 7,3
TV 58,6
other 2,1 5+ days 2,9
What is your main source of On how many days a week did you use the
campaign news? (in %) internet to gather political information? (in %)
Sources of information and political online news in the 2009 campaign
GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, N = 4.057/2.067; Germans from the age of 18 up
Marko Bachl, M.A.
9. 9
Who are the Political Onliners?
41% high political interest
62% male
43% younger than 30
More likely to be
voters of Bündnis 90 /
Die Grünen and FDP
(after adjusting for age)
51% High School degree
Young, well educated, and highly involved in politics
GLES Vorwahl/Nachwahlbefragung 2009, n = 183; Germans from the age of 18 up; main information source is the internet
Foto: Cavan Images; via Flickr Marko Bachl, M.A.
11. 11
Little Surprise: All Parties have Up-to-date
Websites
CDU FDP SPD Grüne
Party
Candidate
integrated in integrated in integrated in
Campaign
party website party website party website
Marko Bachl, M.A.
14. 14
Traditional Websites
All parties present up-to-date websites
Party websites as well as candidate websites; SPD: campaign page
well designed, use of latest web technology
Main functions
Presentation of all imaginable information on the party, politicians,
political programs and campaign activities
Information hub for all online activities on other platforms
Big step forward compared to earlier (state) elections
Main mistake: information and design overload
Usability suffers from huge amount of information and design gimmicks
It's quality not quantity that counts!
Marko Bachl, M.A.
15. 15
Less Traditional Websites – Negative
Campaigning Sites of the CDU
Schlinger-Partei SPD Dagegen-Partei Grüne Faktencheck BW
Exposes the SPD as Reports projects Delivers counter-
‘flip-flopper party’ that are obstructed arguments against
Combines a fun by Die Grünen policy plans of SPD
quiz format with Appeals to partisans and Die Grüne
negative to report such First impression:
campaigning projects in their non-partisan blog
neighborhoods
Marko Bachl, M.A.
16. 16
Online Negative Campaigning
Negative campaigning is (and has been) a general characteristic of
online campaigns, often combined with humor (not only CDU)
Calculation of campaigners: less boomerang effects as ‘official’ politicians
can distance themselves more easily; stays out of broader public
Target group: mostly own partisans
NC engages and motivates by highlighting differences to opponents
NC delivers arguments for political (online) discussions (see Faktencheck)
Research shows that NC is very effective online campaign content
First glance: Promising approach for campaign managers
BUT: Long term consequences for political culture? NC may enhance
polarization beyond the accepted threshold of a political controversy
Marko Bachl, M.A.
18. 18
Selected Social Web Activities by Party
CDU FDP SPD Grüne
Party
Candidate
Campaign
(example)
Unser Land: Zu schade für
Rot-Grün-Rot
Marko Bachl, M.A.
19. 19
YouTube – the Hidden Giant
Video platforms as YouTube are among the most wide-spread social
media applications: basically every young person uses them
USA: one in four political onliners forwards political online videos
Nevertheless, YouTube is widely disregarded in public discussion
Baden-Württemberg election:
All parties have regularly fed YouTube channels;
In addition independently distributed channels/videos by candidates
BUT: Not a single successful campaign-produced video
Most often boring, irrelevant content
Influential distribution of ‘voter-generated content’
Marko Bachl, M.A.
20. 20
YouTube – the Hidden Giant… for the Worse
Final result: non-trivial
view count of an
embarrassing video;
(comparison: FDP TV-
spot < 5.000; CDU TV-
Spot: 48.877)
almost one month
10.2.: just another 2.3.: the viral spiral starts: 15.3.: viral spiral enforcement:
boring political video first time embedded at embedded in A-list-blogs Marko Bachl, M.A.
on YouTube facebook.com netzpolitik.org and spreeblick
22. 22
YouTube – the Hidden Giant
Success factors for campaign videos on YouTube (2009):
Most successful: official TV-spots
Relevant issue (2009: financial and economic policy)
Humor and Negative Campaigning
Beware:
YouTube never forgets
Everything can go viral
YouTube can present powerful pictures – against you
YouTube is becoming a source for traditional online and broadcasting
media – therefore, YT videos may reach a mass audience
Marko Bachl, M.A.
23. 23
Selected Social Web Activities by Party
CDU FDP SPD Grüne
Party
Candidate
Campaign
(example)
Unser Land: Zu schade für
Rot-Grün-Rot
Marko Bachl, M.A.
24. 24
Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid
“Thank you for your comment!” “Where am I? Where will I go?”
Marko Bachl, M.A.
25. 25
Facebook/Twitter: Mappus and Schmid
“Thank you for your comment!” “Where am I? Where will I go?”
Marko Bachl, M.A.
26. 26
Selected Social Web Activities by Party
CDU FDP SPD Grüne
Party
Candidate
Campaign
(example)
Unser Land: Zu schade für
Rot-Grün-Rot
Marko Bachl, M.A.
27. 27
Facebook/Twitter: Discussions and Mocking
Highly polarized discussions – mainly Marko Bachl, M.A.
on the CDU/Mappus pages
28. 28
Social Media: Illusions of Majorities
The number of Facebook ‘friends’,
‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate
and illusion of majorities
Traditional mass media report these
numbers like opinion polls and Marko Bachl, M.A.
reinforce the illusion
29. 29
Social Media: Illusions of Majorities
The number of Facebook ‘friends’,
‘fans’ or ‘likes’ are used to generate
and illusion of majorities
Traditional mass media report these
numbers like opinion polls and Marko Bachl, M.A.
reinforce the illusion
30. 30
Campaigning 2.0
What’s Going on Within the Social Net?
Conclusion – Campaigners:
All parties serve almost every social media channel
BUT: only very limited real engagement; traditional push communication
Positive example: for a limited number of political onliners, the Facebook
pages of the parties are a well-used meeting point
Conclusion – Voters:
Highly polarized online electorate a lot of bashing, little discussion
Active political onliners still seem to be a minority, but very active
(within both political camps)
Weak signs of a evolving political blogosphere / twittersphere
Special case Stuttgart 21: counter public via social media
Best example: fluegel.tv
Marko Bachl, M.A.
32. 32
Contact Information
Marko Bachl
Institut für Kommunikationswissenschaft
Fruwirthstraße 46
70599 Stuttgart
Tel: 0711/ 459-22866
E-Mail: marko.bachl@uni-hohenheim.de
Web: www.komm.uni-hohenheim.de/bachl.html
Twitter: @bachl
Marko Bachl, M.A.