The “Validation Plan” can help you reveal critical and testable (= falsifiable) hypotheses your business model is based on, which are both uncertain and important for the success of the innovation endeavour. Translate only the most important und uncertain antilogs (= test focus) into testable hypotheses. This, however, is not an easy task, especially at the beginning of innovation projects. We usually start with high-level hypotheses that are hard to test. Over time, we are eventually able to nail them down to very specific but still relevant statements. The following structure may help you phrase your hypotheses: <future><threshold> “We believe that payment by credit cards will be accepted by more than 50% of our customers.” Every hypothesis needs an experiment in order to be tested. An experiment defines a sequence of actions needed to collect data and measure the threshold: <action><measurement><timeframe> “We integrate credit card payments into our check-out process for X customers and count usage within 3 weeks.” Download the Business Design workshop templates here: http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en To find out more about Orange Hills visit http://www.orangehills.de.

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HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS
Analogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others
because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market,
and we can’t learn from anyone?
Look at every single element
of your business model to find
analogs and antilogs
Test focus
Importance
Uncertainties
Make sure your analogs are
reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies
eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business
when you look under the hood.
Antilogs Experiments
“We test ....and are convinced, if...”
What questions / hypotheses grow out of
relevant antilogs in our test focus?
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“We believe...”
“We don’t know...” “We explore this by...”
Prototype or lean offerings
required?
Hypothesis
Question
Use the “Lean Offerings”
canvas and start designing
your first products and
services to test hypotheses
that can’t be tested upfront.
Use the “Action Plan” canvas
to define and assign tasks to
run your experiments in short
cycles.
Use the “Action Plan”
canvas to investigate
important analogs even
further to see what we
can learn from others.
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Licensed to Orange Hills GmbH for use in commercial projects from 01 / 01 / 2017 to 31 / 12 / 2017.
What methods do we use and
how do we conduct the experiments?
ExplorationValidation
Targetgroup(s)Brands&messagesChannelsPartnerchannelsOfferingsResourcesProcessesPartnersProfitformulaBusinessDNARelationships
ExplorationValidationExplorationValidationExplorationValidationExplorationValidationExplorationValidation
Questions / hypotheses Methods / procedures
post launchpre launch
post launchpre launch
post launchpre launch
post launchpre launch
post launchpre launch
post launchpre launch
Which antilogs are both
very important and uncertain?
Antilog
level of
knowlegde
?
Question
Hypothesis
Method Execute!
Note: Translate the antilogs in the test focus
into either an exploration or validation depending
on your today’s level of knowlegde. Define an
appropriate method to collect data in the most
efficient way. high
low
Exploration
Validation