1. The Housing Outlook Eric S. Belsky Big Builder October 28, 2010

3. Worst Home Building Downturn Since World War II Percent Change in Housing Starts Sources: US Census Bureau, New Residential Construction data and Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.

4. The Last 10 Years of Completions and Placements Nearing Low Point of 27 10-year Periods Back to 1974-83 Note: Data go back to 1974. 2010 annual completions and placements are estimated by the following methodology: Jan-Jul 2010 is 13.873% below 2009 levels, so annual is taken to be same amount below 2009 annual. Jan-May placements are 8.33% below Jan-May 2009. Source: JCHS calculations of US Census Bureau data

6. Household Growth Has Clearly Slowed, But Estimates of the Degree Vary Widely Notes: ACS estimates are from 2005 to 2008 only. To adjust for rebenchmarking, CPS and HVS estimates for 2002-3 are assumed to equal the average in 2000-5. Sources: US Census Bureau, American Housing Survey; Current Population Survey; and Housing Vacancy Survey.

7. Strong Employment Growth Has Been More Critical To Strength of Past Demand Rebounds Change in Employment (Percent) Change in Mortgage Rates (Percentage points) Note: Changes are from a trough in new home sales through the first eight quarters of a sustained recovery. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, New Residential Construction Survey; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics; and Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Change in New Home Sales (Percent)

8. Employment Has Started to Recover But Is Still in a Deep Hole Note: Quarterly values are three-month averages of seasonally adjusted annual rates. Cyclical trough quarters in new home sales were 1966:4, 1975:1, 1982:2, 1991:1, and false trough in 2009:1. Sources: US Census Bureau, New Residential Construction; BLS, Establishment Survey

9. Real Home Equity Has Returned to Its 1985 Levels Note: Values are adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U for All Items. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds.

10. Large Echo-Boom Generation Should Fuel Household Growth Notes: Members of the baby-boom generation were born 1946-1964. Members of the echo-boom generation were born 1981-2000. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Population (Millions)

12. Under Low Immigration Assumptions, Underlying Demand Should Top 16 Million 2010-20 if Headship Rates Hold Steady at 07-09 Average Levels Source: JCHS Working Paper W10-9. Assumes headship rates by age and race/ethnicity hold constant at 2007-2009 average levels in Current Population Survey. High immigration is US Census Bureau 2008 baseline population projections and low immigration is half that assumption.