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The Application of Game Theory<br /> to Strategic Issues<br />…to achieve your optimal outcome.<br />
Your Challenge Today…<br />“More analysis”              “More action”<br />Strategic Decision Making<br />Merge, Acquire, ...
The Priiva Process…A Different Approach <br />MODEL INPUTS<br />MODEL OUTPUTS<br />Who is involved?<br />Players<br />Wher...
A Highly Efficient Process<br />Executive time commitment <br />2 four hour sessions<br />Stage 3<br />Stage 1<br />Stage ...
Game Theory is a well-founded methodology<br />2000’s<br />Nobel Prize – Aumann&Schelling; Hurwicz et al.<br />1990’s<br /...
Example Natural Outcome<br />Niche Player<br />Wants to buy Struggling Incumbent but fearful of others consolidating<br />...
Example Analytics Provide  Deep Insight<br />Issue Model<br />Heat Map<br />ANALYTICS<br />Influence<br /><ul><li>Powerful...
Analyzes model to develop efficient methods to realize optimal outcomes </li></ul>Self- importance<br />Option Agreement<b...
Preference Tree Example (This is a deep dive.  See Speaker Notes for explanation)<br />Preferences<br />Players<br />More<...
Priiva Success References<br />
Benefits of Game Theory and the Priiva Process<br />Strategic Action Plan<br />Predictable Outcomes<br />Deep Insights<br ...
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Priiva consulting corporation_presentation midi_reg r14 sept 2010

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Priiva consulting corporation_presentation midi_reg r14 sept 2010

  1. 1. The Application of Game Theory<br /> to Strategic Issues<br />…to achieve your optimal outcome.<br />
  2. 2. Your Challenge Today…<br />“More analysis” “More action”<br />Strategic Decision Making<br />Merge, Acquire, Invest, Divest, Partner, Labor Negotiation, Gov’t Affairs, IP Protection and Defense, Litigation, …<br />Endless debate<br />Increasing Business Complexity and Market Disruption<br />Urgency<br />Board of Directors Scrutiny<br />
  3. 3. The Priiva Process…A Different Approach <br />MODEL INPUTS<br />MODEL OUTPUTS<br />Who is involved?<br />Players<br />Where can we get to ?<br />Predicted outcomes<br />Game Theory<br />What can they do ?<br />Options<br />How do we get there ?<br />Tactics<br />What do they want ?<br />Preferences<br />What did we learn ?<br />Insights<br />
  4. 4. A Highly Efficient Process<br />Executive time commitment <br />2 four hour sessions<br />Stage 3<br />Stage 1<br />Stage 2<br />Stage 4<br />Implement<br />Identify player<br />preferences<br />Identify players<br />And options<br />Execute game <br />theory models <br />Which players can affect the outcome and what strategic actions are under their control ? <br />What are the individual player’s preferences for the actions of all players ?<br />Implement strategy and tactics to achieve desired outcomes <br />Predict outcomes from analysis of millions of potential outcomes <br />Total Project Time: 2 – 4 weeks<br />
  5. 5. Game Theory is a well-founded methodology<br />2000’s<br />Nobel Prize – Aumann&Schelling; Hurwicz et al.<br />1990’s<br />Nobel Prize – John Nash<br />1980’s<br />Start of Business Applications<br />1970’s<br />Cold War Applications<br />Prisoners’ Dilemma<br />1960’s<br />1950’s<br />Development of 2 x 2 Games<br />1940’s<br />Seminal work – von Neumann & Morgenstern<br />
  6. 6. Example Natural Outcome<br />Niche Player<br />Wants to buy Struggling Incumbent but fearful of others consolidating<br />The Natural Outcome is stable but fragile <br />Struggling Incumbent<br />Wants to create auction but no bidders<br />Technology Player<br />Wants to buy NichePlayer but fearful of DivMultiNat buying Struggling Incumbent<br />DivMultiNat<br />Continues with minimal investment<br />Customer<br />Slowly develops internal tools, standardizes on platform and encourages New Entrants<br />New Entrant<br />Aggressively enters market with SaaS and Open Source <br />In this example, the Natural Outcome, identifies a fragile “Standoff” situation that requires a plan that can be immediately actioned when the standoff breaks.<br />
  7. 7. Example Analytics Provide Deep Insight<br />Issue Model<br />Heat Map<br />ANALYTICS<br />Influence<br /><ul><li>Powerful software algorithms
  8. 8. Analyzes model to develop efficient methods to realize optimal outcomes </li></ul>Self- importance<br />Option Agreement<br />Option significance<br />Change Seeking<br />
  9. 9. Preference Tree Example (This is a deep dive. See Speaker Notes for explanation)<br />Preferences<br />Players<br />More<br />important<br />Options<br />+ denotes Desire<br />- denotes Fear<br />IF denotes Conditional<br />Less important<br />or indifferent<br />
  10. 10. Priiva Success References<br />
  11. 11. Benefits of Game Theory and the Priiva Process<br />Strategic Action Plan<br />Predictable Outcomes<br />Deep Insights<br />Confident Board of Directors<br />Aligned Executive Team<br />Efficient Process<br />
  12. 12. About Priiva<br />A boutique strategy consulting firm.<br />Specialized in applying game theory methodology to optimize the outcome of strategic business decisions.<br />Hundreds of business cases analyzed with 85% prediction accuracy.<br />Fixed price engagement lasting the life of the business issue.<br />Focused on public companies in Ohio and Florida.<br />Bill Forquer<br />Principal<br />Priiva Consulting<br />www.priiva.com/Bill.html<br />

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