The Future of Cities: what will cities look like in 2065?

The Future of Cities:
What will cities look like in 2065?
Sir Mark Walport
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

Knowledge translated to economic
advantage
Infrastructure resilience
Underpinning policy with evidence
Science for emergencies
Advocacy and leadership for science
British Science Festival
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
2
Image: iStockphoto

Role of the Chief Scientific Adviser
to HM Government
Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet
Responsible for the quality of all S&T
advice across the whole of Government
Lead a network of departmental Chief
Scientific Advisers
Head of the Science and Engineering
Profession in the Civil Service
Supported by the Government Office for
Science
3
Image: iStockphoto

4 British Science Festival
Looking at the future of
cities has a long history
Eugène Hénard, The Cities of the Future, published in,
American City January 1911

Capital cities: striking a balance
“It is the cities
which exhaust
the state and
are the cause
of its
weakness…
- Rousseau, Emile, 1762
Map of Paris by Nicolas de Fer, circa 1700
5

Joseph Chamberlain
6
Joseph Chamberlain
19th Century British politician
and statesman
Elected Mayor of Birmingham in 1873
Promoted many civic improvements
Forcibly purchased Birmingham’s waterworks,
as the water supply was considered a danger
to public health
Campaigner for educational reform
Preferred to give local communities the
responsibility to act on their own initiative
Left the town ‘parked, paved, assized,
marketed, gas & watered and improved’
(Joseph Chamberlain)

Thinking of cities as complex entities
Patrick Geddes
19th century Scottish town
planner
Thinking of cities as a whole, with history
and character taken into account.
Complex interactions between humans,
their activities and the physical environment
determine where people settle.
Regional planning should be responsive to
these conditions in order to seek a balance
between people and the environment.
7

Mapping and open spaces
8

Mapping poverty
9
Charles Booth
19th century English
philanthropist and social
researcher

Making room for nature
Lewis Mumford
20th century American
historian, sociologist and
philosopher of technology
Structure of modern cities partially
responsible for many social problems
Culture and nature should thrive
alongside technology in an ‘organic city’
Urban planning should emphasise an
organic relationship between people
and their living spaces
10

Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902
Economics drives development
Louis de Soissons, Diagram of general
town-plan, Welwyn Garden City, 1920.

What makes a sidewalk safe?
“…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…”
Jane Jacobs
The death and life of great American cities
12
Image: Amanda Orson Image: Sue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0

The Changing Urban World
1950
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
13
30%
Urban.
global pop.

1980
14
40%
Urban.
global pop.

2010
15
52%
Urban.
global pop.

2030
16
61%
Urban.
global pop.

2050
17
72%
Urban.
global pop.

1950
And looking closer at Europe...
18

1980
19

2010
20

2030
21

2050
22

Why are cities important?
Image: Centre for Cities, 2014

There are many possible definitions
What is a city?
Physical components of cities
include:
▪ Physical boundaries
▪ Population size
▪ Hinterland
▪ Natural infrastructure
▪ Built infrastructure
▪ Transport links to other cities &
countries
Map shows alternative geographic boundaries
of cities using different statistical thresholds
Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et al
arXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph]
Travel to work data from Census 2001

Cities emerge from the demand for
populations to interact and are about
people:
• Poverty and wealth
• Culture and diversity
• Social inclusion/exclusion
• Crime
• Demographics, e.g., ageing population
• Identity
• Overlapping systems of governance
• Legal designation
More than infrastructure
25
Image: Julian Mason/CC BY 2.0
Image: iStockphoto

Plenty of urban issues

Current Trends in the UK
Distinct divide in North-South
productivity and employment.
London is outperforming the rest
of the UK economy.
Our largest cities lag behind
London in terms of their
performance – and lag behind
their European rivals in terms of
levels of GDP per capita
achieved.
Cities do not work in isolation –
the networks and interactions
between them are important.
GROWTH IN OUTPUT (NOMINAL GROSS VALUE ADDED) 2007-2011
Source: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013
27

There are many core questions, including:
 What is a successful city?
 How do cities grow and develop?
 Can we make cities more sustainable?
 What are the options for city governance?
 How will city ambitions relate to national
frameworks?
Future of Cities project
Project aim:
Provide central and local government with
an evidence base to support decisions in
the short term which will lead to positive
outcomes for cities in the long term
Living in Cities
Urban Economies
Urban Metabolism
Urban Form
& Infrastructure
Urban Governance
Science of Cities
6 KEY THEMES

Future challenges and opportunities
• Demography -ageing population
• Economic competitiveness
• Governance
• Climate change
• Technology
• Sustainability – energy, waste
• Resilience
• International competition
• Network of cities
29
HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER WEEK,
ENGLAND AND WALES (GBP)
What are the key enablers of
success for different cities?
What are their most important
decisions in preparing for the
future?

Major employers
Third Sector
Future of Cities project
We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders
through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures
exercises to develop the evidence base.
City visits City futures Academics
Working papers Workshops
Practitioners
Central Government
Young people
Local Authorities
Future Cities Catapult
+ many others
Institutes
30

Meetings with 19 cities with
representatives from:
 Local Governments and the Public Sector
 Universities
 Local Employers / Private Sector
 Local Charities / Third Sector
City Seminars
31

Prominent emerging themes:
Social disparities
Close proximity of richest and most deprived areas;
how to alleviate social disparity
Employment (and skills)
Future employment trends would shape city;
Skills disparities
Transport
Inter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity
Governance
Coherent leadership and collaboration needed for
progress
Calls for greater local government autonomy
Identity
Do people identify most strongly with a city, a region, or
a country?
The groups were encouraged to continue
the process and commission their own
local foresight projects to look at the
future of their city.
What makes a city ‘sticky’?
32

Work
Type of future work needs to
be determined as it dictates
demographies and housing
Birmingham City Seminar
Demographic change
Birmingham is the youngest
city in Europe
Diversity
Super diversity and
super connectivity are
strengths for the city
Employment
Below average
employment rate of
63% (UK av. 71%)
But above average
employment growth
rate of +1.1% (UK av.
of +0.8%)
Relationships with other UK
towns and cities
London and the rest
Liverpool-Manchester
Newcastle-Sunderland-Gateshead
Birmingham-Solihull
Governance
and vision
Liveability
People are attracted by
culture and entertainment,
not just work
33
Connectivity
HS2

Research Themes
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance Science of cities
34

Living in cities
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
35

115
105
95
85
75
65
55
The population will continue to increase.
Uncertainty regarding how much higher
the population will be by 2065.
UK will potentially be EU’s most
populous country by 2060.
Increasing population
80.6M
64.5M
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Millions
Variant projection High Population High Migration High Fertiliy High Life Expectancy
Principal Low Life Expectancy Low Fertility Low Migration Low Population
36
Source: ONS (2012)

Increasingly diverse population, across
the UK.
By 2065, most UK cities will have levels
of ethnic diversity similar to levels
currently experienced in Birmingham.
This is not a new phenomenon. UK cities
have long had continuously changing
and diversifying demographic profiles.
Increasing diversity
How do we develop cities to prevent
the marginalisation and exclusion of
groups of their residents?
37
Image: iStockphoto

2.6%
DECREASE
15-29S
Ageing population
By 2065, there will be a major
increase in the number of
people aged over 75 in the UK.
Ageing in cities is slower than
elsewhere.
Significant impact on the
design and operation of our
towns and cities.
8%
INCREASE
75+
0.8%
INCREASE
65-75S
CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF
AGE COHORT GROUPS OF THE UK
POPULATION 2014-2065
38

Ageing population
How should cities be adapted to provide
attractive living and working
environments for the elderly?
Could we reinvent the family home?
39
Image: Patrick Vale, RIBA (2013)

Where will people live?
There are distinctive age-related
migration patterns.
The trend for older people to
move to coastal towns is
expected to continue.
Graduate talent, age 20-30
predominantly moves to London.
Majority of people leaving
London (pre-retirement) move to
Greater South East region.
Where will people choose to live in the
future? At what point during their life?
40
Centre for Cities, 2014
Net migration in and out of London, 2009-2012

Liveability is key
41
Image: London Legacy Development Corporation

Urban Economies
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
42

Changing future of work
New technologies will change the
geographies of production.
3D printing
ICT continues to change travel
patterns and enables distance
working-living lifestyles
The rise of ‘third spaces’ for
people to meet, communicate and
work will continue: e.g. coffee
shops as a working environment
‘coffices’
43
Image: Jonathan Juursema/CC BY-SA 3.0

Evolving skills & education
Skills base is hugely important to
the adaptability of our cities.
Increasing skills gaps are
reported. E.g. coding.
Increasing numbers of older and
ethnically diverse workforce to
be included in employment.
What skills and knowledge should
we invest in now to enable the urban
economies of 2050 onwards?
How will UK cities cooperatively
enhance UK’s competitiveness?
44
Image: Alfrmoldavie/CC BY-SA 3.0

Urban Metabolism
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
45

Urban Metabolism
Cities consume huge amounts of
materials and resources.
Cities potentially offer more resource-efficient
living than non-cities.
Major issues of vulnerability and risk to
disruptions in supply chains.
Image: Guy Erwood

Reduced water use
By 2050 parts of the UK could experience an
annual reduction in river flows of 15%, and
as much as 80% in some catchments during
the summer. There will, however, be heavier
rainfall in winters.
Coupled with population growth, this will
increase water demand in hotter seasons,
with greatest water stress projected in the
populous Greater South East.
47

Changing energy generation
The UK is currently a net importer of
energy and exposed to vulnerabilities
to supply disruptions.
UK cities will increasingly:
• Integrate decentralised modes of
energy generation.
• Deploy smart grids linked into
smart meters and smart
appliances.
• Develop zero carbon homes and
building to reduce the energy
footprint of the built environment.
48
Image: Guerito/CC BY-NC 2.0

Urban Form & Infrastructure
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
49

Increasing degrees of
integration and interdependency
Electricity, waste, transport and water infrastructure
will exchange resources and information across
sector boundaries.
Improved efficiency and quality
of service provision.
Reductions in the enormous
amounts of waste we produce.
Image: Ine Steenmans

New types of mobility
We will use smaller-scale, autonomous,
low-carbon personal transport.
The bicycle will remain popular!
51
Image: Hawkins Brown

High speed and high capacity rail
connections between more of the UK’s
cities will crucially impact economic
and social development.
Increased connectivity
Image: ARUP

Much of the spatial layout of cities will be the
same – it is highly durable.
City centres will have re-urbanised – UK
cities will see higher densities of
development.
Denser, compacter and greener urban
forms will have huge impacts on people’s
health and sense of belonging.
If 75% of those currently failing to meet
minimum daily exercise levels did meet
recommended levels of walking, £675 million
could be saved per year.
Image: Space Syntax
53
Influence of urban form

Urban Governance
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance

Diverse urban governance
People will retain a sense of national
identity but will increasingly affiliate
with the city within which they live.
Many young and ethnic minority
groups already have such city-centric
sense of belonging.
How will the increasingly diverse city
manage effective and equitable
representation for all?

City leadership
Cities will likely have greater autonomy in
their decision-making.
We will likely have an even greater diversity
of governance arrangements in cities.
This diversity will better reflect their individual
cultures and histories – not all of our cities
voted for mayors!
Who makes decisions?
How does city leadership need to
evolve?
What tools does leadership need?

City regions as units
Metropolitan areas can yield ineffective
spatial units for service provision, e.g. in
transport, education.
City-regions support cross-boundary
coordination across large urban areas.
They will significantly influence future forms
of city governance structures.
They are, however, difficult to define.
How do we balance enhanced
accountability of smaller units of
governance and the difficulty in
coordinating or achieving consensus on
bigger issues across a city-region? Image: M J Richardson/CC BY-SA 2.0

Science of Cities
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance

New age of data & technology
brings potential to improve
design and operation of cities.
The Internet of Things
Things as well as people are
highly connected, yielding
‘Big Data’.
This will not be without issues:
Privacy, Democracy?
How to integrate technocratic and
democratic cities?
Draft

Experience of the city will change
Augmented reality, seamless mobility
and mobile social networking will be part
of our everyday movements and life.
Image: 20fourlabs.com

Real-time engaging of citizens
The role of citizens will change. Citizen will
enjoy more direct involvement in
discussions around urban spaces.
Real-time data analysis will enable us to
manage cities with greater responsiveness.
Reactions to policies, announcements will be
gauged closer to real-time.

Living in cities
But it is all interrelated!
Urban
Metabolism
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Economies
Urban
Governance
Science of cities
CITIES

Interrelatedness
The nature of the city of 2065’s challenges
and opportunities is one of interrelatedness.
Some issues continually emerge from these
relationships of influence: quality of life,
competitiveness, sustainability, resilience.
Do we have the data and skills to better plan
for the future of such interrelated cities?

Visions for 2065: Digital City

Visions for 2065: Liveable City

“My purpose is to inquire into the influence
which the progress of modern science and
industry may exercise upon the planning, and
particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the
Future…
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily
susceptible to transformation and adornment
than the Cities of Yesterday.”
Eugene Hénard (1910)
66

@uksciencechief
www.gov.uk/go-science
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise
for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated
in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk.

The Future of Cities: what will cities look like in 2065?

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