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東北亞地區的未來與挑戰的民調分析

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Statistical analysis of a poll survey on N.E. Asia

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東北亞地區的未來與挑戰的民調分析

  1. 1. 東北亞地區的未來與挑戰的民調分析 黃偉國 香港浸會大學政治及國際關係學系助理教授
  2. 2. Background  Genron-NPO: a think tank in Japan  Large-scale poll survey: China, Japan, South Korea & the U.S.  The latest report: October 2015  Over 1,000 respondents for the respective country  The importance of public opinion in shaping foreign policy  The public perception toward the respective countries: economic influence, cultural exchange, political/diplomatic exchange, territorial disputes 2
  3. 3. Sampling details Country Duration N Margin of error Japan (Genro NPO) 9-30/4 1,000 (50 regions) +/- 4.6 – 6.0 U.S. (The Chicago Council Survey) 25/5-17/6 2,034 (50 US states & District of Columbia) +/- 2.2 – 3.1 South Korea (East Asia Institute) 17/4-8/5 1,010 +/- 3.1 China (Horizon Research Consultancy Group) 25/8-11/9 3,142 (urban sample: all tier 1-4 cities in 29 provinces) +/- 1.8 3
  4. 4. Public opinion & foreign policy  the opinions and attitudes of the general public and a select group of opinion leaders (or elites) on matters relating to foreign policy and to define the parameters of public opinion within which decision-makers must operate  The role of opinion leaders: opinion leaders are defined as individuals in positions of leadership in government, academia, business and labor, the media, religious institutions, special interest groups, and private foreign policy organizations. 4
  5. 5. Public opinion & foreign policy  both general public and elite respondents are questioned regarding various foreign policy problems, such as the relationship between domestic and foreign policy priorities, the roles of various individuals and institutions in the creation of foreign policy, and the appropriate responses of the government to actions by the countries (RCMD) 5
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  24. 24. 分析及結論  中國在區內的經濟影響力成為重要因素。  中國在介入國際事務,處理衝突問題上的進取性及道德 性。  加強中日官方及領導人的交流及合作,在改善中日關係 產生過程中產生明顯的效用。  中韓兩國仍對日本不信任。  互信基礎?純經濟利益、戰略依賴、意識形態…… 24

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