Consumer:High yielders and growth picks on offer

•

0 recomendaciones•478 vistas

The defensives performed. No major surprises in the 1Q09 results in the Consumer Sector. F&B manufacturers generally turned in another solid quarter of net profit growth. After a difficult quarter, we believe the worst is over for retailers and mixed players who now look poised for a recovery in 4Q09, especially if the rebound in GDP proves to be stronger than initially expected. Remain selectively Overweight. The worst is over. Key indicators suggest consumer confidence and hence, consumption bottomed in 1Q09. Although the worse-thanexpected 6.2% GDP contraction in 1Q09 pushed back expectations of an earnings recovery in the broader economy, we believe the defensive qualities of the Consumer Sector mean that sector earnings are very close to, if not already at, a floor. Manufacturers reaped solid gains. F&B manufacturers were standout performers in 1Q09, generating net profit growth of 5-157% YoY vs. an average of -24% for the sector as a whole. We attribute this mainly to lower input costs coupled with the carrying-over of higher selling prices from end-2008. We expect earnings growth to remain resilient through 2009-10 for most F&B manufacturers. But retailers/integrated players not so lucky. As expected, 1Q09 net profit growth for retailers and integrated players was significantly affected by the slowdown in the economy and the reversion of consumer expenditure to basic necessities over non-essentials. Nevertheless, two of our stock picks, KFC and AEON Co, registered creditable net profit growth. More importantly, all signs point to a recovery by year-end that could well be stronger than initially expected. Selectively Overweight. Our picks in the Consumer sector offer either steady double-digit growth or consistently high dividends. AEON Co, KFC Holdings and QL Resources are all on track to achieve doubledigit annual growth over 2009-11. We also like JT International and Guinness for their high dividend yields of 8-12%, and their defensive earnings.

Economía y finanzas

Consumer:High yielders and growth picks on offer

Más contenido relacionado

Más de Boyboy cute

Welcome to the 2009 edition of The Wealth Report, the third such collaboration between Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank. Over the past 12 months the economic outlook has become even more uncertain. Most of the developed world is now in recession, and even the emerging economies have been forced to pause for breath. Every commentator accepts 2009 will be tough. Our Attitudes Survey (page 12) indicates clearly that HNWIs will look to protect their wealth from the ravages of the downturn with an emphasis firmly on security and transparency rather than risk. The tangible nature of property means it is well placed to benefit from this shift in emphasis, and there are signs that some mature prime property markets, such as London and New York, have readjusted to price levels that offer good value for purchasers. For some emerging markets, the rollercoaster ride looks set to continue. A full analysis of prime global markets is included on page 26, and we recommend 10 locations and sectors that offer potential for growth on page 23. As property is just one aspect of wealth, we have expanded the scope of The Wealth Report by including an investigation into the performance of alternative assets, from art and cars to wine (page 36), and an assessment of the state of the philanthropy sector (page 16). Influential thinkers, such as Alain de Botton (page 20), also share their views on how the world will adjust to life post credit crunch. We hope you enjoy reading the report.

The Wealth Report 2009

Consumer:High yielders and growth picks on offer

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

Más de Boyboy cute

Más de Boyboy cute (20)

Último

Último (20)