SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 9
Multifamily Outlook
United States . Summer 2012


Strong fundamentals fuel
robust transaction velocity
Strong occupancy and rent growth continued across the country during
the first half of 2012 as economic headwinds moved in support of
rentership versus homeownership.

Sales transaction velocity kept pace with 2005 levels, totaling $23
billion at mid-year.

We anticipate the apartment sectors strong performance to continue
over the next 24 months. Competition will push investors into
secondary and tertiary markets and entrepreneurial, value-add
strategies will resurface.
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 2




United States Multifamily
Q2 2012 performance overview

Fundamentals                                                                restored to pre-financial crisis levels, recording 50 basis points below
The U.S. economic recovery moved at an anemic pace during the               the 10-year average. Effective rent growth followed suit, reaching well
second quarter of 2012 with job growth flat, GDP slowing and another        above the peak levels of 2007-2008 to a 10-year high. Rent growth
round of economic stimulus in the works. The resulting challenges and       occurred in all markets tracked and averaged 1.7 percent across the
uncertainty kept the “would be” homeowner population opting to rent.        country. Houston and Dallas, in particular, kept up their impressive pace
Deep in the hangover of the financial crisis, the nation’s mortgage         of rent growth, while absorbing a heavy pipeline of new deliveries.
delinquency and home foreclosure rate continued to climb, forcing more      Overall, gateway markets in the Northeast and California are leading
homeowners into the renter pool. Even as the U.S. housing sector is         the country with vacancy below 6.0 percent and San Francisco is out
showing signs of improvement with prices easing upward, for-sale            ahead of the pack with vacancy at 3.0 percent (3.4 percent below the
inventory low and home affordability bottoming, home buying decisions       national average) and year-over-year rent growth at 11.4 percent (7.0
were put on hold in favor of renting, causing a continued imbalance in      percent above the national average).
housing fundamentals.
                                                                            While occupancy gains were realized in most markets, it is interesting
 % loss of net worth and decline in homeownership by age                    to note that the hardest-hit housing markets continued to show the most
                                                                            significant absorption of units over the last three months. Markets like
                                                                            South Florida, Phoenix, Atlanta and Orlando and Los Angeles saw 20-
                                                                            basis-point vacancy reductions at a minimum and year-over-year
                                                                            employment growth greater than 2.0 percent. Keep in mind that many of
                                                                            these metro’s saw deep employment losses during the downturn and
                                                                            much of this growth could be considered stabilization rather than
                                                                            advancement as unemployment in most markets remains a significant
                                                                            distance (between 5.4 to 8.2 percent) from the peak levels of 2006.


                                                                                             Historical housing fundamentals
                                                                                                                         12.0%                   Homeownership Rate                   70.0%
                                                                                                                                                 Multifamily Vacancy
                                                                                                                                                 Foreclosure Rate
                                                                            Vacancy, Foreclosure and Unemployment Rate




                                                                                                                         10.0%                   Unemployment Rate
                                                                                                                                                                                      68.0%
The second quarter highlighted the impact that the financial crisis has
                                                                                                                         8.0%
had on our population ages 44 and under (a key home-buying                                                                                                                                    Homeownership Rate
demographic) since the housing market collapse. A recent U.S. Census                                                     6.0%                                                         66.0%
study pointed out the group’s 58.8 percent decline in total net worth due
                                                                                                                         4.0%
to declining home values, high-unemployment, lower wages and high
                                                                                                                                                                                      64.0%
debt-burdens. This segment of the population, returning to the renter
                                                                                                                         2.0%
pool out of necessity, has been a key driver for multifamily occupancy
growth in recent months. With housing challenges far from being                                                          0.0%                                                         62.0%

resolved, the apartment development pipeline has amplified and investor
appetite for core multifamily properties has pushed towards peak levels.

Performance                                                                 As job growth within the overall economy struggles to regain footing,
Nationwide, strong performance in terms of unit absorption and rent         tech-heavy markets are setting the pace for employment, occupancy
growth continued during the second quarter of 2012 with vacancy             and rent growth. As a result, developers began pursuing opportunities
                                                                            for new development across these markets throughout the country.
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 3




United States Multifamily
Q2 2012 performance overview cont.

According to a recent study by MPF Research, 162,000 units are                                                           With treasury yields at historic lows and uncertainty on the forefront
currently under construction across the nation, with future inventory                                                    globally, Institutions and REITS have been parking money in core
growth exceeding 10.0 percent in some submarkets. Leading the pack is                                                    assets often with the expectations of a minimal yield in exchange for
the North San Jose / Milpitas submarket with over 4,000 units under                                                      the safety of a quality asset in a prime location. This “flight-to-safety”
construction, which will equate to 45.6 percent inventory growth. The                                                    theme continued during the second quarter; however, in an effort to
second highest would be North Irvine, CA and North Charlotte, NC. Both                                                   avoid the saturation and competition that has been compressing
areas will see 18.3 percent inventory growth in the near future. From a                                                  yields, investor demand for secondary and tertiary assets / markets
metro-level, Austin leads the country with 3.9 percent of new inventory in                                               began to strengthen.
the pipeline, followed by San Jose, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville, Dallas,
Seattle and Washington, DC. While there is much concern about                                                            A key driver that is keeping multifamily transaction velocity high is the
overbuilding, it is important to note that the amount of construction in our                                             fluidity and availability of financing compared to other property sectors
top U.S. markets is still 10.0 percent to 30.0 percent below the average                                                 (office, industrial and retail). This fact is largely supported and fueled by
annual rate of construction that occurred during the last two decades.                                                   the GSEs; who generally exceed other capital sources in terms of
Metros with their economic fundamentals intact are expected to fare well                                                 overall proceeds. During the second quarter, Freddie Mac was
even with this substantial pipeline of new inventory.                                                                    reportedly lending up to an 80.0 percent loan-to-value ratio (based on
                                                                                                                         the purchase price) for Class A assets in primary locations and a loan-
Transaction velocity                                                                                                     to-value ratio of up to 75.0 percent for secondary assets and locations.
Investor demand for multifamily product continued to surge through the                                                   In certain instances, borrowers successfully executed 10-year loans,
first half of 2012 with transaction velocity on pace with 2005 levels;                                                   with generous interest-only periods, while capturing interest rates below
reaching $23 billion at mid-year. National bulk portfolio sales (totaling                                                4.0 percent. Along with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, CMBS shops are
$4.0 billion through H1 2012) were a huge driver behind activity,                                                        offering very attractive financing relative to historical standards, but, like
increasing 320.0 percent compared to the first half of 2011. Baltimore,                                                  the agencies, their ability to out-quote other financing sources in terms
San Diego, Jacksonville and Raleigh experienced the largest year-over-                                                   of proceeds and rates hinges on their favorable evaluation of both an
year increases with total transaction dollar volume exceeding 100.0                                                      asset and a borrower. Borrowers looking for financing on more
percent from H1 2011. Despite this competitive buying environment, cap.                                                  complicated or lower leverage deals will find life companies and
rates have remained relatively stable at the national level over the last                                                balance sheet lenders to be as, or more, competitive than agencies and
12 months; averaging 5.9 percent. However, according to a recent                                                         CMBS shops.
survey of investor yield requirements, buyer expectations for levered
IRR’s have significantly compressed in core markets.                                                                     Looking ahead
                                                                                                                         We anticipate that apartment occupancy will continue to climb as
     Historical multifamily sales volume and cap rates
                                                                                                                         population growth from two key renter age segments, Echo-Boomers
                                        Total $ Volume            Average Cap Rate (%)
                                                                                                                         and Empty-Nesters, will aid in the absorption of units through 2020.
                        $40                                                                 8.0
                                                                                                                         Despite the development fever that has hit the multifamily sector
                        $35                                                                 7.0
                                                                                                                         nationwide, at the current levels, we don’t feel as though it will
                        $30                                                                 6.0
                                                                                                  Average cap rate (%)




                                                                                                                         negatively affect most markets, particularly markets with strong
 $ volume in billions




                        $25                                                                 5.0
                                                                                                                         fundamentals such as the Northeast, Northwest and the Texas metros.
                        $20                                                                 4.0
                                                                                                                         Overbuilding does however have the potential to threaten fundamentals
                        $15                                                                 3.0
                                                                                                                         in areas that have significant housing and employment challenges
                        $10                                                                 2.0
                                                                                                                         ahead, primarily in the Sunbelt markets, where home affordability is
                         $5                                                                 1.0
                                                                                                                         rapidly decreasing and rent growth is compounding. While our overall
                         $0                                                                 0.0
                          Qtr1   Qtr1   Qtr1   Qtr1      Qtr1   Qtr1   Qtr1   Qtr1   Qtr1                                outlook is optimistic, we do anticipate that the compounding occupancy
                          2004   2005   2006   2007      2008   2009   2010   2011   2012                                and rent growth will begin to slow over the next 24 months as lenders
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 4




United States Multifamily
Q2 2012 performance overview cont.

loosen residential lending restrictions and home affordability decreases
                                                                             Year-over-year % change in transaction dollar volume
to levels that sway some renters to pursue homeownership.

In particular, there are two areas to watch (“wildcards”) in the coming                       Baltimore
months that could significantly impact housing fundamentals across the                    Bulk Portfolio
nation. First, the government refinance programs for underwater
                                                                                             San Diego
borrowers, such as the HARP 2.0 program, will reduce borrower’s
interest rates and allow “stuck” homeowners to feasibly rent their homes          Jacksonville (Florida)
and relocate. Second, we anticipate that an increase in for-sale housing               Raleigh/Durham
inventory will place continued downward pressure on home prices as                       New York City
foreclosures make their way through the pipeline and lenders release
                                                                             Orange County (California)
shadow REO inventory to the market.
                                                                                  Tampa/St Petersburg
Overall, low interest rates and strong multifamily fundamentals will               Seattle/Puget Sound
continue to fuel investor demand over the next 24 months. We anticipate
                                                                                                Houston
that secondary and tertiary asset classes and locales will see a spike in
transaction volume as the sentiment toward risk aversion fades,                                Nashville
investors pursue higher yields and entrepreneurial value-add                                   Charlotte
strategies reemerge.
                                                                                          South Florida
Top 10 YTD $ volume                                                                           Total U.S.
                                                                                                 Atlanta
 Metro                                                       YTD $ volume
                                                                                                Orlando
 Bulk portfolio                                                     $3.96B                   Las Vegas
                                                                                                Chicago
 New York                                                           $2.95B
                                                                                                Phoenix
 Washington, DC                                                     $1.18B                Richmond VA
                                                                                                 Boston
 Atlanta                                                            $1.04B
                                                                                           Los Angeles
 Phoenix                                                             $776M
                                                                              Inland Empire (California)

 Los Angeles                                                         $708M              Dallas/Ft Worth
                                                                                       Washington, DC
 South Florida                                                       $702M        Northern New Jersey

 Seattle                                                             $701M               San Francisco

 Chicago                                                             $669M

 Houston                                                             $526M                                          YOY % change in sales volume ($)
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 5




United States – Multifamily clock




           Boston, New York, San Francisco, Washington, DC                                  Peaking market                        Falling market

     Baltimore, Chicago, Northern New Jersey, Philadelphia


                                              Austin, San Jose, Seattle                      Rising market                     Bottoming market
                        Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles,
                                 Nashville, Richmond, San Diego

              Atlanta, Inland Empire, Orange County, Phoenix
                                               South Florida,

                                      Charlotte, Las Vegas, Orlando,
                                       Raleigh-Durham, Tampa Bay

                                                 Jacksonville, Memphis




Clock description                                                                       Q2 2012 positions
• This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimates each prime multifamily    • All markets experienced rent growth in the second quarter, averaging 1.9 percent
  market is within its individual rental cycle at the end of the quarter.                 across the country
• Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and directions.                   • Boston led with 3.5 percent growth.
• The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in   • San Francisco and Boston are the nation’s tightest markets in terms of occupancy
  their rental cycle.                                                                     • Q2 vacancy was 3.0 and 4.0 percent respectively.
• The position is not necessarily representative of investment or development           • Houston and Dallas led markets in new deliveries with over 1,500 units delivered in Q2.
  market prospects.
                                                                                          • Houston, ranked third in the country in terms of rent growth, recording some of the
• The position refers to prime face rental values.                                          highest occupancy gains nationwide.
                                                                                        • South Florida, Phoenix, Atlanta and Orlando and Los Angeles saw 20-basis-point
                                                                                          vacancy reductions, at a minimum, and employment growth higher than 2.0 percent
                                                                                          year-over-year.
                                                                                        • Gateway markets in Southern California and the Northeastern U.S. remained stable
                                                                                          with vacancy below 6.0 percent.
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 6




Q2 2012 vacancy across the U.S. Multifamily sector



     Seattle




                                                                                                                             Boston

                                                                                                                          New York
                                                                                         Northern N.J
                                                                                                                      Philadelphia
 San Francisco                                               Chicago
                                                                                                                    Baltimore
                                                                                                                     Washington DC
           San Jose           Las Vegas
                                                                                                               Richmond-Tidewater
                       I.E.
   Los Angeles                                                                                                  Raleigh
                                                       Memphis
Orange County                                                                                             Charlotte
                                  Phoenix                                      Atlanta
        San Diego                             Dallas                                                    Nashville


                                            Houston                                            Jacksonville

                                                                                                    Orlando
       Vacancy meter
                                                                                Tampa
           10.0% +
                                                                                                    South FL
        8.0% to 9.9%

        6.0% to 7.9%
                                                                                                     Top YOY rent growth
        5.0% to 5.9%
                                                                                             Metro                        % change
           < 5.0%
                                                                                             San Fran.                       11.2%

                                                                                             L.A.                             7.2%

                                                                                             Charlotte                        6.5%

                                                                                             New York                         6.4%

                                                                                             Chicago                          6.0%

                                                                                             Houston                          5.9%

                                                                                             Boston                           5.7%

                                                                                             Dallas-FTW                       5.4%


Source: PPR, Jones Lang LaSalle Research
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 7




United States Multifamily performance statistics

                                  Q2           YTD           Total       Q2 net      YTD net            %              Quarterly      YOY          Q2    Quarterly   YOY %
                                                                                                                 Q2
Market                   completions    completions     inventory    absorption    absorption    absorbed               vacancy    vacancy   effective     % rent       rent
                                                                                                            vacancy
                              (units)        (units)       (units)       (units)       (units)       YTD                 change     change       rents     growth    growth




Atlanta                          116            309      391,428            883         1,514       0.4%      10.0%       -0.2%      -0.5%    $678.39        1.3%      4.3%

Baltimore                        510          1,055      183,003            470           587       0.3%       5.8%        0.0%      0.4%    $1,231.44       0.8%      1.9%

Boston                           560            705      344,393            352           179       0.1%       4.0%        0.1%      0.4%    $1,740.92       3.5%      5.7%

Charlotte                        410            710      118,774            387           714       0.6%       9.0%        0.0%      -1.0%    $619.37        2.0%      6.5%

Chicago                             -            27      666,161           (226)          832       0.1%       5.5%        0.1%      -0.5%   $1,124.68       1.7%      6.0%

Dallas - Fort Worth            1,311          2,160      596,003          4,136         5,533       0.9%       6.3%       -0.5%      -0.8%    $804.90        2.0%      5.4%

Houston                        1,068          1,608      502,019          3,971         6,385       1.3%      11.0%       -0.6%      -1.7%    $813.18        2.8%      5.9%

Inland Empire                    100            292      153,159            373           504       0.3%       6.7%       -0.1%      0.4%    $1,058.35       0.9%      2.5%

Jacksonville                        -           264        83,463            78           279       0.3%      12.6%       -0.1%      0.2%     $728.36        1.2%      1.9%

Las Vegas                        200            352      149,910            208           409       0.3%       7.3%        0.0%      0.0%     $725.41        0.9%     -1.3%

Los Angeles                      198            462     1,051,301         1,921         3,094       0.3%       5.6%       -0.2%      -0.8%   $1,681.76       1.8%      7.2%

Memphis                           24            159        85,533           149           389       0.5%      10.8%       -0.1%      -0.5%    $500.27        0.9%      1.3%

Nashville                           -           456      107,516            175           530       0.5%       6.5%       -0.2%      -0.6%    $591.83        2.8%      4.5%

New York                         650          1,046     1,975,384         2,535         4,728       0.2%       4.7%       -0.1%      -0.4%   $2,678.64       2.1%      6.4%

Northern New Jersey                 -              -     153,703            255           301       0.2%       5.0%       -0.2%      -0.7%   $1,282.41       0.4%      3.2%

Orange County                    352            614      220,998            190           454       0.2%       6.0%        0.0%      0.5%    $1,617.62       0.9%      4.5%

Orlando                          200            240      151,834            513           700       0.5%       8.0%       -0.2%      -1.1%    $819.22        2.2%      3.9%

Philadelphia                        -           236      327,465            403           292       0.1%       5.3%       -0.1%      0.2%    $1,163.21       1.6%      1.8%

Phoenix                          320            320      275,574            726         1,010       0.4%       7.3%       -0.2%      -0.1%    $853.67        0.9%      2.2%

Raleigh                          570          1,005        77,521           456           731       0.9%       9.6%        0.1%      -0.1%    $722.88        1.8%      4.6%

Richmond                         335            335        76,069           372           492       0.6%       7.9%       -0.1%      -0.7%    $794.21        1.0%      1.8%

San Diego                        717            717      267,598            343          (620)      -0.2%      5.4%       -0.2%      0.1%    $1,471.45       1.5%      1.5%

San Francisco                       -           187      219,682            250         1,169       0.5%       3.0%       -0.1%      -1.4%   $2,312.01       1.6%     11.2%

San Jose                         222            330      136,457            236           235       0.2%       5.0%        0.0%      0.0%    $1,858.70       2.0%      5.4%

Seattle                          808          1,596      220,088          1,028         1,760       0.8%       5.1%       -0.1%      -0.3%   $1,021.97       1.5%      4.4%

South Florida                     26             26      356,135            649         1,553       0.4%       6.1%       -0.2%      -0.3%   $1,167.79       2.2%      4.8%

Tampa Bay                        515          1,367      183,975            651         1,752       1.0%       9.6%       -0.1%      -0.3%    $819.87        1.1%      3.6%

Washington - NoVA - MD         3,059          3,004      531,369          2,162         1,809       0.3%       6.2%        0.2%      0.1%    $1,516.98       1.2%      1.2%


United States                 17,365         26,900    12,926,294        33,368        51,352       0.4%       6.4%       -0.1%      -0.3%   $1,228.13       1.9%      4.2%
Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 8




United States Multifamily transaction statistics

                                   Q2            YTD                                               % change from
                                                                Total Q2                   YTD                       % change YOY Average recorded
Market                   transactions    transactions                                             previous quarter
                                                               $ volume               $ volume                            $ volume     cap rate (%)
                                   (#)             (#)                                                   $ volume




Atlanta                            14              29      $479,400,000          $1,039,635,195            -14.4%           14.2%            5.34%

Baltimore                           1               3       $64,700,000            $176,740,000            -42.3%          579.8%            5.70%

Boston                             11              15      $377,985,482            $505,260,482            197.0%           -35.3%           5.70%

Charlotte                           6              11      $239,395,000            $376,495,000             74.6%           33.0%            5.49%

Chicago                             6              13      $296,240,654            $669,640,654            -20.7%           -23.4%           6.50%

Dallas - Fort Worth                 3               9       $66,800,000            $204,310,000            -51.4%           -46.8%           7.20%

Houston                            11              17      $365,256,000            $525,956,000            127.3%           45.2%            6.27%

Inland Empire                       1               2       $18,000,000            $187,000,000            -89.3%           -45.7%           5.20%

Jacksonville                        1               2      $362,000,000            $379,000,000           2029.4%          148.9%            8.00%

Las Vegas                           4               8      $123,691,453            $195,837,170             71.4%            -7.6%           6.43%

Los Angeles                         7              21      $205,800,000            $708,036,859            -59.0%           -43.9%           5.55%

Memphis                             8               9      $203,203,759            $229,203,759            681.6%          126.3%            9.20%

Nashville                           4               5      $116,900,000            $150,850,000            244.3%           39.6%            6.95%

New York                           15              35      $975,979,206          $2,956,264,744            -50.7%          103.0%            4.33%

Northern New Jersey                  -              3                  -           $182,440,000           -100.0%           -59.7%              N/A

Orange County                       3               4      $169,160,000            $189,560,000            729.2%           65.3%            4.20%

Orlando                             5               6      $132,750,000            $194,300,000            115.7%            0.8%            5.58%

Philadelphia                        3               8       $95,850,000            $297,097,000            -52.4%            -7.9%           5.60%

Phoenix                            13              22      $432,591,500            $776,541,500             25.8%           -25.1%           5.97%

Raleigh                             5              13      $217,600,000            $470,100,000            -13.8%          111.3%            6.50%

Richmond                            2               2       $56,850,000             $56,850,000            100.0%           -26.4%           5.67%

San Diego                           4               9      $200,000,000            $295,500,000            109.4%          158.6%            5.17%

San Francisco                       3               6      $223,022,000            $314,368,000            144.2%           -70.7%           5.40%

San Jose                            8              17      $310,173,750            $701,122,950            -20.7%           48.2%            5.18%

Seattle                             4              10      $185,020,000            $469,550,000            -35.0%           60.2%            5.67%

South Florida                       6              14      $236,090,100            $702,891,100            -49.4%           25.5%            5.35%

Tampa                               4              12      $146,580,000            $398,715,400            -41.9%           50.1%            6.40%

Washington - NoVA - MD             10              17      $753,900,678          $1,180,942,668             76.5%           -48.0%           5.45%

United States                     238             465    $12,754,259,096        $22,707,640,409             28.1%            9.7%            5.94%
About Jones Lang LaSalle
 Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a financial and professional services firm specializing in real estate. The firm offers integrated services delivered
 by expert teams worldwide to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying or investing in real estate. With 2011 global revenue of $3.6
 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle serves clients in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide, including 200 corporate offices. The firm is an
 industry leader in property and corporate facility management services, with a portfolio of approximately 2.1 billion square feet worldwide. LaSalle
 Investment Management, the company’s investment management business, is one of the world’s largest and most diverse in real estate with $47
 billion of assets under management. For further information, please visit www.joneslanglasalle.com.

 About Jones Lang LaSalle Research
 Jones Lang LaSalle’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis, and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate today’s
 commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our 300 professional researchers track and analyze
 economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries, producing unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research
 and expertise, fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives
 successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions.



 Jubeen Vaghefi
 International Director,
 National Multifamily Practice Leader
 Jubeen.Vaghefi@am.jll.com
 +1 305 789 6519

 David Young
 Managing Director
 West Coast Leader
 David.Young@am.jll.com
 +1 206 607 1719

 Brady Titcomb
 Research Manager
 United States Multifamily
 Brady.Titcomb@am.jll.com
 +1 954 232 7931

 www.us.joneslanglasalle.com


©2012 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without
limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of Jones Lang LaSalle. The information contained in this
document has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Jones Lang LaSalle or any of their affiliates accept no liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained
herein and no reliance should be placed on the information contained in this document.

More Related Content

What's hot

RICS Property World pgs5 8
RICS Property World pgs5 8RICS Property World pgs5 8
RICS Property World pgs5 8RICS Americas
 
2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro
2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro
2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metrokottmeier
 
Economic Summary September, 2009
Economic Summary September, 2009Economic Summary September, 2009
Economic Summary September, 2009Tom Cryer
 
January 2013's Monthly Indicators report
January 2013's Monthly Indicators reportJanuary 2013's Monthly Indicators report
January 2013's Monthly Indicators reportUnit Realty Group
 
Развитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимости
Развитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимостиРазвитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимости
Развитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимостиАО "Самрук-Казына"
 
Construction White Paper
Construction White PaperConstruction White Paper
Construction White PaperBob Lowery
 

What's hot (13)

RICS Property World pgs5 8
RICS Property World pgs5 8RICS Property World pgs5 8
RICS Property World pgs5 8
 
Toronto: Third Quarter Condo Report 2012
Toronto: Third Quarter Condo Report 2012Toronto: Third Quarter Condo Report 2012
Toronto: Third Quarter Condo Report 2012
 
USA and Phoenix, AZ Q4 2010 Newsletter
USA and Phoenix, AZ Q4 2010 NewsletterUSA and Phoenix, AZ Q4 2010 Newsletter
USA and Phoenix, AZ Q4 2010 Newsletter
 
2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro
2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro
2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro
 
Economic Summary September, 2009
Economic Summary September, 2009Economic Summary September, 2009
Economic Summary September, 2009
 
January 2013's Monthly Indicators report
January 2013's Monthly Indicators reportJanuary 2013's Monthly Indicators report
January 2013's Monthly Indicators report
 
Развитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимости
Развитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимостиРазвитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимости
Развитие экономики Казахстана за 20 лет независимости
 
September 2012 Toronto Real Estate Market Watch
September 2012 Toronto Real Estate Market WatchSeptember 2012 Toronto Real Estate Market Watch
September 2012 Toronto Real Estate Market Watch
 
Toronto Market Watch for February 2012
Toronto Market Watch for February 2012Toronto Market Watch for February 2012
Toronto Market Watch for February 2012
 
Market Watch August 2012
Market Watch August 2012Market Watch August 2012
Market Watch August 2012
 
Greater Toronto REALTORS 4Th Quarter Condo Sales 2012. Condominium Sales in T...
Greater Toronto REALTORS 4Th Quarter Condo Sales 2012. Condominium Sales in T...Greater Toronto REALTORS 4Th Quarter Condo Sales 2012. Condominium Sales in T...
Greater Toronto REALTORS 4Th Quarter Condo Sales 2012. Condominium Sales in T...
 
Toronto REALTORS Rental Market Report 4th Quarter 2012. Toronto Real Estate B...
Toronto REALTORS Rental Market Report 4th Quarter 2012. Toronto Real Estate B...Toronto REALTORS Rental Market Report 4th Quarter 2012. Toronto Real Estate B...
Toronto REALTORS Rental Market Report 4th Quarter 2012. Toronto Real Estate B...
 
Construction White Paper
Construction White PaperConstruction White Paper
Construction White Paper
 

Viewers also liked

01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)
01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)
01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)VogelDenise
 
062112 welsh (supreme court)
062112   welsh (supreme court)062112   welsh (supreme court)
062112 welsh (supreme court)VogelDenise
 
Third session WIFM by Veldhoen + Company
Third session WIFM by Veldhoen + CompanyThird session WIFM by Veldhoen + Company
Third session WIFM by Veldhoen + CompanyVeldhoen + Company
 
EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)
EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)
EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)VogelDenise
 
050113 fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian
050113   fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian050113   fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian
050113 fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainianVogelDenise
 
MALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonian
MALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonianMALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonian
MALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonianVogelDenise
 
CIPR PRide Awards Thames and Chiltern
CIPR PRide Awards Thames and ChilternCIPR PRide Awards Thames and Chiltern
CIPR PRide Awards Thames and ChilternPrecise Brand Insight
 
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgianVogelDenise
 
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannadaVogelDenise
 
072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)
072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)
072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)VogelDenise
 
061012 Pink Slip (TELUGU)
061012   Pink Slip (TELUGU)061012   Pink Slip (TELUGU)
061012 Pink Slip (TELUGU)VogelDenise
 
Topienie marzanny21
Topienie marzanny21Topienie marzanny21
Topienie marzanny21emiliabadr
 
122912 public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech
122912   public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech122912   public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech
122912 public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czechVogelDenise
 
062112 persian (supreme court)
062112   persian (supreme court)062112   persian (supreme court)
062112 persian (supreme court)VogelDenise
 
092812 david addington article (basque)
092812   david addington article (basque)092812   david addington article (basque)
092812 david addington article (basque)VogelDenise
 
020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)
020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)
020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)VogelDenise
 
AZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingers
AZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingersAZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingers
AZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingersVogelDenise
 
SWAHILI hillary clinton stingers
SWAHILI   hillary clinton stingersSWAHILI   hillary clinton stingers
SWAHILI hillary clinton stingersVogelDenise
 
041413 public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian
041413   public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian041413   public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian
041413 public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusianVogelDenise
 

Viewers also liked (20)

01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)
01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)
01/28/13 US Supreme Court Response (catalan)
 
062112 welsh (supreme court)
062112   welsh (supreme court)062112   welsh (supreme court)
062112 welsh (supreme court)
 
Third session WIFM by Veldhoen + Company
Third session WIFM by Veldhoen + CompanyThird session WIFM by Veldhoen + Company
Third session WIFM by Veldhoen + Company
 
EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)
EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)
EMAILS - KENTUCKY COMMISSION ON HUMAN RIGHTS (afrikaans)
 
050113 fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian
050113   fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian050113   fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian
050113 fax to judy clarke (boston marathon bombing) - ukrainian
 
MALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonian
MALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonianMALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonian
MALCOLM X (Building Bridges – Getting The DEVIL OFF YOUR BACK)-macedonian
 
CIPR PRide Awards Thames and Chiltern
CIPR PRide Awards Thames and ChilternCIPR PRide Awards Thames and Chiltern
CIPR PRide Awards Thames and Chiltern
 
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - georgian
 
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada
072712 usa ku klux klan runned government - kannada
 
072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)
072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)
072712 USA Ku Klux Klan Runned Government (ARMENIAN)
 
061012 Pink Slip (TELUGU)
061012   Pink Slip (TELUGU)061012   Pink Slip (TELUGU)
061012 Pink Slip (TELUGU)
 
Topienie marzanny21
Topienie marzanny21Topienie marzanny21
Topienie marzanny21
 
122912 public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech
122912   public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech122912   public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech
122912 public notification (obama & pay pal attacks) - czech
 
062112 persian (supreme court)
062112   persian (supreme court)062112   persian (supreme court)
062112 persian (supreme court)
 
092812 david addington article (basque)
092812   david addington article (basque)092812   david addington article (basque)
092812 david addington article (basque)
 
020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)
020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)
020915 PUBLIC RELEASE EEOC CHARGE AGAINST 1ST HERITAGE CREDIT (Persian)
 
AZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingers
AZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingersAZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingers
AZERBAIJANI hillary clinton stingers
 
SWAHILI hillary clinton stingers
SWAHILI   hillary clinton stingersSWAHILI   hillary clinton stingers
SWAHILI hillary clinton stingers
 
041413 public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian
041413   public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian041413   public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian
041413 public notice (031113 fax to barack obama) - belarusian
 
CIPR PRide Awards Cymru
CIPR PRide Awards CymruCIPR PRide Awards Cymru
CIPR PRide Awards Cymru
 

Similar to US Multifamily Report - Summer 2012

Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Ivan Kaufman
 
Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020
Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020
Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020Thomvest Ventures
 
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docxlorainedeserre
 
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docxnovabroom
 
The Recovery: Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...
The Recovery:  Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...The Recovery:  Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...
The Recovery: Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors
 
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
 
Toronto Market Trends
Toronto Market TrendsToronto Market Trends
Toronto Market TrendsLarrySage
 
February 2010 Toronto Mls Market Watch
February 2010 Toronto Mls Market WatchFebruary 2010 Toronto Mls Market Watch
February 2010 Toronto Mls Market WatchSteven Silva
 
State of the National Apartment Market
State of the National Apartment MarketState of the National Apartment Market
State of the National Apartment MarketRyan Slack
 
Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711
Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711
Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711Virtual ULI
 
AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...
AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...
AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...JerryLewless
 
Q4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdf
Q4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdfQ4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdf
Q4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdfLynne Watanabe-MacFarlane
 
MF_Market_Commentary_072315
MF_Market_Commentary_072315MF_Market_Commentary_072315
MF_Market_Commentary_072315John-Louis Pane
 
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011REALTORS
 
Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)
Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)
Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)jasonwtolliver
 

Similar to US Multifamily Report - Summer 2012 (20)

Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
 
Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020
Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020
Thomvest Housing Market Overview, May 2020
 
Cre finance council (june 2012)
Cre finance council (june 2012)Cre finance council (june 2012)
Cre finance council (june 2012)
 
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
 
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx20   THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
20 THE NEW” HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MARKET SPRING 2016The .docx
 
Affordable Homeownership: CRA Conference Presentation
Affordable Homeownership: CRA Conference PresentationAffordable Homeownership: CRA Conference Presentation
Affordable Homeownership: CRA Conference Presentation
 
7 reasons
7 reasons7 reasons
7 reasons
 
The Recovery: Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...
The Recovery:  Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...The Recovery:  Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...
The Recovery: Is it Real? San Diego Economic Conference, Residential Real Es...
 
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
 
Toronto Market Trends
Toronto Market TrendsToronto Market Trends
Toronto Market Trends
 
February 2010 Toronto Mls Market Watch
February 2010 Toronto Mls Market WatchFebruary 2010 Toronto Mls Market Watch
February 2010 Toronto Mls Market Watch
 
State of the National Apartment Market
State of the National Apartment MarketState of the National Apartment Market
State of the National Apartment Market
 
Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711
Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711
Petree Hall (Dean Schwanke) - ULI fall meeting - 102711
 
AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...
AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...
AMERICA’S RENTAL HOUSING EVOLVING MARKETS AND NEEDS Joint Center for Housing ...
 
No Bubble
No BubbleNo Bubble
No Bubble
 
Vietnam Market Overview 3 Q12
Vietnam Market Overview 3 Q12Vietnam Market Overview 3 Q12
Vietnam Market Overview 3 Q12
 
Q4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdf
Q4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdfQ4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdf
Q4 2022 Dr Elliot -QuarterlyMarketOverview42022.pdf
 
MF_Market_Commentary_072315
MF_Market_Commentary_072315MF_Market_Commentary_072315
MF_Market_Commentary_072315
 
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
 
Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)
Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)
Multifamily Market Snapshot (2 Q12)
 

US Multifamily Report - Summer 2012

  • 1. Multifamily Outlook United States . Summer 2012 Strong fundamentals fuel robust transaction velocity Strong occupancy and rent growth continued across the country during the first half of 2012 as economic headwinds moved in support of rentership versus homeownership. Sales transaction velocity kept pace with 2005 levels, totaling $23 billion at mid-year. We anticipate the apartment sectors strong performance to continue over the next 24 months. Competition will push investors into secondary and tertiary markets and entrepreneurial, value-add strategies will resurface.
  • 2. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 2 United States Multifamily Q2 2012 performance overview Fundamentals restored to pre-financial crisis levels, recording 50 basis points below The U.S. economic recovery moved at an anemic pace during the the 10-year average. Effective rent growth followed suit, reaching well second quarter of 2012 with job growth flat, GDP slowing and another above the peak levels of 2007-2008 to a 10-year high. Rent growth round of economic stimulus in the works. The resulting challenges and occurred in all markets tracked and averaged 1.7 percent across the uncertainty kept the “would be” homeowner population opting to rent. country. Houston and Dallas, in particular, kept up their impressive pace Deep in the hangover of the financial crisis, the nation’s mortgage of rent growth, while absorbing a heavy pipeline of new deliveries. delinquency and home foreclosure rate continued to climb, forcing more Overall, gateway markets in the Northeast and California are leading homeowners into the renter pool. Even as the U.S. housing sector is the country with vacancy below 6.0 percent and San Francisco is out showing signs of improvement with prices easing upward, for-sale ahead of the pack with vacancy at 3.0 percent (3.4 percent below the inventory low and home affordability bottoming, home buying decisions national average) and year-over-year rent growth at 11.4 percent (7.0 were put on hold in favor of renting, causing a continued imbalance in percent above the national average). housing fundamentals. While occupancy gains were realized in most markets, it is interesting % loss of net worth and decline in homeownership by age to note that the hardest-hit housing markets continued to show the most significant absorption of units over the last three months. Markets like South Florida, Phoenix, Atlanta and Orlando and Los Angeles saw 20- basis-point vacancy reductions at a minimum and year-over-year employment growth greater than 2.0 percent. Keep in mind that many of these metro’s saw deep employment losses during the downturn and much of this growth could be considered stabilization rather than advancement as unemployment in most markets remains a significant distance (between 5.4 to 8.2 percent) from the peak levels of 2006. Historical housing fundamentals 12.0% Homeownership Rate 70.0% Multifamily Vacancy Foreclosure Rate Vacancy, Foreclosure and Unemployment Rate 10.0% Unemployment Rate 68.0% The second quarter highlighted the impact that the financial crisis has 8.0% had on our population ages 44 and under (a key home-buying Homeownership Rate demographic) since the housing market collapse. A recent U.S. Census 6.0% 66.0% study pointed out the group’s 58.8 percent decline in total net worth due 4.0% to declining home values, high-unemployment, lower wages and high 64.0% debt-burdens. This segment of the population, returning to the renter 2.0% pool out of necessity, has been a key driver for multifamily occupancy growth in recent months. With housing challenges far from being 0.0% 62.0% resolved, the apartment development pipeline has amplified and investor appetite for core multifamily properties has pushed towards peak levels. Performance As job growth within the overall economy struggles to regain footing, Nationwide, strong performance in terms of unit absorption and rent tech-heavy markets are setting the pace for employment, occupancy growth continued during the second quarter of 2012 with vacancy and rent growth. As a result, developers began pursuing opportunities for new development across these markets throughout the country.
  • 3. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 3 United States Multifamily Q2 2012 performance overview cont. According to a recent study by MPF Research, 162,000 units are With treasury yields at historic lows and uncertainty on the forefront currently under construction across the nation, with future inventory globally, Institutions and REITS have been parking money in core growth exceeding 10.0 percent in some submarkets. Leading the pack is assets often with the expectations of a minimal yield in exchange for the North San Jose / Milpitas submarket with over 4,000 units under the safety of a quality asset in a prime location. This “flight-to-safety” construction, which will equate to 45.6 percent inventory growth. The theme continued during the second quarter; however, in an effort to second highest would be North Irvine, CA and North Charlotte, NC. Both avoid the saturation and competition that has been compressing areas will see 18.3 percent inventory growth in the near future. From a yields, investor demand for secondary and tertiary assets / markets metro-level, Austin leads the country with 3.9 percent of new inventory in began to strengthen. the pipeline, followed by San Jose, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville, Dallas, Seattle and Washington, DC. While there is much concern about A key driver that is keeping multifamily transaction velocity high is the overbuilding, it is important to note that the amount of construction in our fluidity and availability of financing compared to other property sectors top U.S. markets is still 10.0 percent to 30.0 percent below the average (office, industrial and retail). This fact is largely supported and fueled by annual rate of construction that occurred during the last two decades. the GSEs; who generally exceed other capital sources in terms of Metros with their economic fundamentals intact are expected to fare well overall proceeds. During the second quarter, Freddie Mac was even with this substantial pipeline of new inventory. reportedly lending up to an 80.0 percent loan-to-value ratio (based on the purchase price) for Class A assets in primary locations and a loan- Transaction velocity to-value ratio of up to 75.0 percent for secondary assets and locations. Investor demand for multifamily product continued to surge through the In certain instances, borrowers successfully executed 10-year loans, first half of 2012 with transaction velocity on pace with 2005 levels; with generous interest-only periods, while capturing interest rates below reaching $23 billion at mid-year. National bulk portfolio sales (totaling 4.0 percent. Along with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, CMBS shops are $4.0 billion through H1 2012) were a huge driver behind activity, offering very attractive financing relative to historical standards, but, like increasing 320.0 percent compared to the first half of 2011. Baltimore, the agencies, their ability to out-quote other financing sources in terms San Diego, Jacksonville and Raleigh experienced the largest year-over- of proceeds and rates hinges on their favorable evaluation of both an year increases with total transaction dollar volume exceeding 100.0 asset and a borrower. Borrowers looking for financing on more percent from H1 2011. Despite this competitive buying environment, cap. complicated or lower leverage deals will find life companies and rates have remained relatively stable at the national level over the last balance sheet lenders to be as, or more, competitive than agencies and 12 months; averaging 5.9 percent. However, according to a recent CMBS shops. survey of investor yield requirements, buyer expectations for levered IRR’s have significantly compressed in core markets. Looking ahead We anticipate that apartment occupancy will continue to climb as Historical multifamily sales volume and cap rates population growth from two key renter age segments, Echo-Boomers Total $ Volume Average Cap Rate (%) and Empty-Nesters, will aid in the absorption of units through 2020. $40 8.0 Despite the development fever that has hit the multifamily sector $35 7.0 nationwide, at the current levels, we don’t feel as though it will $30 6.0 Average cap rate (%) negatively affect most markets, particularly markets with strong $ volume in billions $25 5.0 fundamentals such as the Northeast, Northwest and the Texas metros. $20 4.0 Overbuilding does however have the potential to threaten fundamentals $15 3.0 in areas that have significant housing and employment challenges $10 2.0 ahead, primarily in the Sunbelt markets, where home affordability is $5 1.0 rapidly decreasing and rent growth is compounding. While our overall $0 0.0 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 Qtr1 outlook is optimistic, we do anticipate that the compounding occupancy 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 and rent growth will begin to slow over the next 24 months as lenders
  • 4. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 4 United States Multifamily Q2 2012 performance overview cont. loosen residential lending restrictions and home affordability decreases Year-over-year % change in transaction dollar volume to levels that sway some renters to pursue homeownership. In particular, there are two areas to watch (“wildcards”) in the coming Baltimore months that could significantly impact housing fundamentals across the Bulk Portfolio nation. First, the government refinance programs for underwater San Diego borrowers, such as the HARP 2.0 program, will reduce borrower’s interest rates and allow “stuck” homeowners to feasibly rent their homes Jacksonville (Florida) and relocate. Second, we anticipate that an increase in for-sale housing Raleigh/Durham inventory will place continued downward pressure on home prices as New York City foreclosures make their way through the pipeline and lenders release Orange County (California) shadow REO inventory to the market. Tampa/St Petersburg Overall, low interest rates and strong multifamily fundamentals will Seattle/Puget Sound continue to fuel investor demand over the next 24 months. We anticipate Houston that secondary and tertiary asset classes and locales will see a spike in transaction volume as the sentiment toward risk aversion fades, Nashville investors pursue higher yields and entrepreneurial value-add Charlotte strategies reemerge. South Florida Top 10 YTD $ volume Total U.S. Atlanta Metro YTD $ volume Orlando Bulk portfolio $3.96B Las Vegas Chicago New York $2.95B Phoenix Washington, DC $1.18B Richmond VA Boston Atlanta $1.04B Los Angeles Phoenix $776M Inland Empire (California) Los Angeles $708M Dallas/Ft Worth Washington, DC South Florida $702M Northern New Jersey Seattle $701M San Francisco Chicago $669M Houston $526M YOY % change in sales volume ($)
  • 5. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 5 United States – Multifamily clock Boston, New York, San Francisco, Washington, DC Peaking market Falling market Baltimore, Chicago, Northern New Jersey, Philadelphia Austin, San Jose, Seattle Rising market Bottoming market Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Nashville, Richmond, San Diego Atlanta, Inland Empire, Orange County, Phoenix South Florida, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Orlando, Raleigh-Durham, Tampa Bay Jacksonville, Memphis Clock description Q2 2012 positions • This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimates each prime multifamily • All markets experienced rent growth in the second quarter, averaging 1.9 percent market is within its individual rental cycle at the end of the quarter. across the country • Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and directions. • Boston led with 3.5 percent growth. • The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in • San Francisco and Boston are the nation’s tightest markets in terms of occupancy their rental cycle. • Q2 vacancy was 3.0 and 4.0 percent respectively. • The position is not necessarily representative of investment or development • Houston and Dallas led markets in new deliveries with over 1,500 units delivered in Q2. market prospects. • Houston, ranked third in the country in terms of rent growth, recording some of the • The position refers to prime face rental values. highest occupancy gains nationwide. • South Florida, Phoenix, Atlanta and Orlando and Los Angeles saw 20-basis-point vacancy reductions, at a minimum, and employment growth higher than 2.0 percent year-over-year. • Gateway markets in Southern California and the Northeastern U.S. remained stable with vacancy below 6.0 percent.
  • 6. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 6 Q2 2012 vacancy across the U.S. Multifamily sector Seattle Boston New York Northern N.J Philadelphia San Francisco Chicago Baltimore Washington DC San Jose Las Vegas Richmond-Tidewater I.E. Los Angeles Raleigh Memphis Orange County Charlotte Phoenix Atlanta San Diego Dallas Nashville Houston Jacksonville Orlando Vacancy meter Tampa 10.0% + South FL 8.0% to 9.9% 6.0% to 7.9% Top YOY rent growth 5.0% to 5.9% Metro % change < 5.0% San Fran. 11.2% L.A. 7.2% Charlotte 6.5% New York 6.4% Chicago 6.0% Houston 5.9% Boston 5.7% Dallas-FTW 5.4% Source: PPR, Jones Lang LaSalle Research
  • 7. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 7 United States Multifamily performance statistics Q2 YTD Total Q2 net YTD net % Quarterly YOY Q2 Quarterly YOY % Q2 Market completions completions inventory absorption absorption absorbed vacancy vacancy effective % rent rent vacancy (units) (units) (units) (units) (units) YTD change change rents growth growth Atlanta 116 309 391,428 883 1,514 0.4% 10.0% -0.2% -0.5% $678.39 1.3% 4.3% Baltimore 510 1,055 183,003 470 587 0.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.4% $1,231.44 0.8% 1.9% Boston 560 705 344,393 352 179 0.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.4% $1,740.92 3.5% 5.7% Charlotte 410 710 118,774 387 714 0.6% 9.0% 0.0% -1.0% $619.37 2.0% 6.5% Chicago - 27 666,161 (226) 832 0.1% 5.5% 0.1% -0.5% $1,124.68 1.7% 6.0% Dallas - Fort Worth 1,311 2,160 596,003 4,136 5,533 0.9% 6.3% -0.5% -0.8% $804.90 2.0% 5.4% Houston 1,068 1,608 502,019 3,971 6,385 1.3% 11.0% -0.6% -1.7% $813.18 2.8% 5.9% Inland Empire 100 292 153,159 373 504 0.3% 6.7% -0.1% 0.4% $1,058.35 0.9% 2.5% Jacksonville - 264 83,463 78 279 0.3% 12.6% -0.1% 0.2% $728.36 1.2% 1.9% Las Vegas 200 352 149,910 208 409 0.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% $725.41 0.9% -1.3% Los Angeles 198 462 1,051,301 1,921 3,094 0.3% 5.6% -0.2% -0.8% $1,681.76 1.8% 7.2% Memphis 24 159 85,533 149 389 0.5% 10.8% -0.1% -0.5% $500.27 0.9% 1.3% Nashville - 456 107,516 175 530 0.5% 6.5% -0.2% -0.6% $591.83 2.8% 4.5% New York 650 1,046 1,975,384 2,535 4,728 0.2% 4.7% -0.1% -0.4% $2,678.64 2.1% 6.4% Northern New Jersey - - 153,703 255 301 0.2% 5.0% -0.2% -0.7% $1,282.41 0.4% 3.2% Orange County 352 614 220,998 190 454 0.2% 6.0% 0.0% 0.5% $1,617.62 0.9% 4.5% Orlando 200 240 151,834 513 700 0.5% 8.0% -0.2% -1.1% $819.22 2.2% 3.9% Philadelphia - 236 327,465 403 292 0.1% 5.3% -0.1% 0.2% $1,163.21 1.6% 1.8% Phoenix 320 320 275,574 726 1,010 0.4% 7.3% -0.2% -0.1% $853.67 0.9% 2.2% Raleigh 570 1,005 77,521 456 731 0.9% 9.6% 0.1% -0.1% $722.88 1.8% 4.6% Richmond 335 335 76,069 372 492 0.6% 7.9% -0.1% -0.7% $794.21 1.0% 1.8% San Diego 717 717 267,598 343 (620) -0.2% 5.4% -0.2% 0.1% $1,471.45 1.5% 1.5% San Francisco - 187 219,682 250 1,169 0.5% 3.0% -0.1% -1.4% $2,312.01 1.6% 11.2% San Jose 222 330 136,457 236 235 0.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% $1,858.70 2.0% 5.4% Seattle 808 1,596 220,088 1,028 1,760 0.8% 5.1% -0.1% -0.3% $1,021.97 1.5% 4.4% South Florida 26 26 356,135 649 1,553 0.4% 6.1% -0.2% -0.3% $1,167.79 2.2% 4.8% Tampa Bay 515 1,367 183,975 651 1,752 1.0% 9.6% -0.1% -0.3% $819.87 1.1% 3.6% Washington - NoVA - MD 3,059 3,004 531,369 2,162 1,809 0.3% 6.2% 0.2% 0.1% $1,516.98 1.2% 1.2% United States 17,365 26,900 12,926,294 33,368 51,352 0.4% 6.4% -0.1% -0.3% $1,228.13 1.9% 4.2%
  • 8. Jones Lang LaSalle • United States Multifamily Outlook • Summer 2012 8 United States Multifamily transaction statistics Q2 YTD % change from Total Q2 YTD % change YOY Average recorded Market transactions transactions previous quarter $ volume $ volume $ volume cap rate (%) (#) (#) $ volume Atlanta 14 29 $479,400,000 $1,039,635,195 -14.4% 14.2% 5.34% Baltimore 1 3 $64,700,000 $176,740,000 -42.3% 579.8% 5.70% Boston 11 15 $377,985,482 $505,260,482 197.0% -35.3% 5.70% Charlotte 6 11 $239,395,000 $376,495,000 74.6% 33.0% 5.49% Chicago 6 13 $296,240,654 $669,640,654 -20.7% -23.4% 6.50% Dallas - Fort Worth 3 9 $66,800,000 $204,310,000 -51.4% -46.8% 7.20% Houston 11 17 $365,256,000 $525,956,000 127.3% 45.2% 6.27% Inland Empire 1 2 $18,000,000 $187,000,000 -89.3% -45.7% 5.20% Jacksonville 1 2 $362,000,000 $379,000,000 2029.4% 148.9% 8.00% Las Vegas 4 8 $123,691,453 $195,837,170 71.4% -7.6% 6.43% Los Angeles 7 21 $205,800,000 $708,036,859 -59.0% -43.9% 5.55% Memphis 8 9 $203,203,759 $229,203,759 681.6% 126.3% 9.20% Nashville 4 5 $116,900,000 $150,850,000 244.3% 39.6% 6.95% New York 15 35 $975,979,206 $2,956,264,744 -50.7% 103.0% 4.33% Northern New Jersey - 3 - $182,440,000 -100.0% -59.7% N/A Orange County 3 4 $169,160,000 $189,560,000 729.2% 65.3% 4.20% Orlando 5 6 $132,750,000 $194,300,000 115.7% 0.8% 5.58% Philadelphia 3 8 $95,850,000 $297,097,000 -52.4% -7.9% 5.60% Phoenix 13 22 $432,591,500 $776,541,500 25.8% -25.1% 5.97% Raleigh 5 13 $217,600,000 $470,100,000 -13.8% 111.3% 6.50% Richmond 2 2 $56,850,000 $56,850,000 100.0% -26.4% 5.67% San Diego 4 9 $200,000,000 $295,500,000 109.4% 158.6% 5.17% San Francisco 3 6 $223,022,000 $314,368,000 144.2% -70.7% 5.40% San Jose 8 17 $310,173,750 $701,122,950 -20.7% 48.2% 5.18% Seattle 4 10 $185,020,000 $469,550,000 -35.0% 60.2% 5.67% South Florida 6 14 $236,090,100 $702,891,100 -49.4% 25.5% 5.35% Tampa 4 12 $146,580,000 $398,715,400 -41.9% 50.1% 6.40% Washington - NoVA - MD 10 17 $753,900,678 $1,180,942,668 76.5% -48.0% 5.45% United States 238 465 $12,754,259,096 $22,707,640,409 28.1% 9.7% 5.94%
  • 9. About Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a financial and professional services firm specializing in real estate. The firm offers integrated services delivered by expert teams worldwide to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying or investing in real estate. With 2011 global revenue of $3.6 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle serves clients in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide, including 200 corporate offices. The firm is an industry leader in property and corporate facility management services, with a portfolio of approximately 2.1 billion square feet worldwide. LaSalle Investment Management, the company’s investment management business, is one of the world’s largest and most diverse in real estate with $47 billion of assets under management. For further information, please visit www.joneslanglasalle.com. About Jones Lang LaSalle Research Jones Lang LaSalle’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis, and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate today’s commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our 300 professional researchers track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries, producing unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research and expertise, fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions. Jubeen Vaghefi International Director, National Multifamily Practice Leader Jubeen.Vaghefi@am.jll.com +1 305 789 6519 David Young Managing Director West Coast Leader David.Young@am.jll.com +1 206 607 1719 Brady Titcomb Research Manager United States Multifamily Brady.Titcomb@am.jll.com +1 954 232 7931 www.us.joneslanglasalle.com ©2012 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of Jones Lang LaSalle. The information contained in this document has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Jones Lang LaSalle or any of their affiliates accept no liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and no reliance should be placed on the information contained in this document.