1. Africa has experienced renewed growth in its agricultural sector and rapid expansion of agricultural exports and imports.
2. Rising incomes, urbanization, and population growth in Africa have led to domestic demand growing faster than production, resulting in an increasing agricultural import gap.
3. There is substantial potential to expand intra-African agricultural trade, but this requires removing numerous local barriers to trade. Rapidly transforming value chains and growth of a nascent processing sector will determine future trade patterns on the continent.
2. RECENT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Based on the first edition of the
Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
3. RECENT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Based on the first edition of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
OUTLINE
Growth Recovery and Trade by African Countries
Africa in Global Agricultural Markets: Trade Patterns and Performance
Trends, Potential and Outlook in Intra-African Agricultural Trade
4. RECENT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Based on the first edition of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
OUTLINE
Growth Recovery and Trade by African Countries
Africa in Global Agricultural Markets: Trade Patterns and Performance
Trends, Potential and Outlook in Intra-African Agricultural Trade
5. 400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Per capita GDP
(2005 constant $US, 27 SSA countries average)
Actual and 2000s trend for the future
3.2% annual
growth rate
$700
$1,200
Source: Badiane et al (2015).
The lost decades: sharp decline between 1975 and 1995
GROWTH RECOVERY AND TRADE BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES
6. AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE
Rapid Increase in both exports and imports and widening Gap in 2000s
Source: Badiane et al: Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Africa's trade flows, 1998–2016 (billion current USD)
Exports Imports
7. ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND TRADE IMBALANCE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Africa’s agricultural trade flows and GDP growth, 1998–2016
Exports Imports GDP growth
Source: CEPII 2018 for trade data; World Bank 2018 for GDP data
8. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEMAND OUTLOOK
Most Countries Will Reach Middle Income Status In 2030
All Countries Will Reach Middle Income Status By 2050
Source: Sulser T. B. et al. 2015.
9. RECENT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Based on the first edition of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
OUTLINE
Growth Recovery and Trade by African Countries
Africa in Global Agricultural Markets: Trade Patterns and Performance
Trends, Potential and Outlook in Intra-African Agricultural Trade
10. AFRICA IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL MARKETS
Africa’s share in global exports has recovered slightly but still below 1960s levels
16. SHARE OF AGRICULTURE IN AFRICA’S GLOBAL TRADE
Share of agriculture in overall exports by African countries has fallen by 50%
17. Normalized Trade Balance: (X-M)/(X+M)
Source: Badiane et al: Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2018
-0,3
-0,25
-0,2
-0,15
-0,1
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
AFRICA BECAME A NET IMPORTER A DECADE AND A HALF AGO
Normalized Trade Balance
18. -80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Africa ECOWAS ECCAS COMESA SADC
REGIONAL DIMENSION OF TRADE IMBALANCE
ECCAS has experienced rapid deterioration
Same with SADC which moved form net exporter to net importer
ECOWAS has the lowest gap, but also turned net importer
All regions have lost their next exporting position around 10 years ago
Source: Badiane et al: Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2018
19. DIRECTION OF AFRICAN AGRICUILTURAL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports Imports
Europe is Africa’s largest agricultural trading partners
It plays a larger role as an export market than an import supplier
20. MAIN SOURCES OF AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL IMPORT GAP
US$MILL.
sugar
maize
wheat
rice
palm oil
wheat
wheat
milk
cream
Source: Badiane et al: Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2018
Africa is now net importer with EU
The Americas are main contributor to trade gap
Net Agricultural Exports by Africa
21. Asia is catching up to the Americas
EU has continued to lose share
TRENDS IN MARKET SHARES OF MAIN EXPORTERS TO AFRICA
22. RECENT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Based on the first edition of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
OUTLINE
Growth Recovery and Trade by African Countries
Africa in Global Agricultural Markets: Trade Patterns and Performance
Trends, Potential and Outlook in Intra-African Agricultural Trade
24. SHARE OF AGRICULTURE IN INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE
Value share in intra-trade Volume share of intra-trade
Agriculture now accounts for less then 40 percent of intra-African trade; Rising only for COMESA
25. Low but increasing intra-African trade
Faster growth than other regions. Low base
Increased from 13% to 20%
Between 2000 and 2013
TRENDS IN INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Source: Badiane et al: Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2018
26. CHANGES IN INTRA-TRADE SHARES
Intra-trade expansion driven primarily by growth within SADC and COMESA
27. TOP 10 COMMODITIES IN INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE
Shares in intra-African trade (~40%)
28. POTENTIAL TO EXPAND INTRA TRADE: EXAMPLE OF ECOWAS COUNTRIES
Dissimilar production / specialization patterns indicates scope for trade expansion
Large majority of country pairs have low
production similarity indexes (< 50)
29. POTENTIAL TO EXPAND INTRA TRADE: EXAMPLE OF ECOWAS COUNTRIES
Dissimilar export patterns indicates scope for trade expansion
Degree of dissimilarity is even more
pronounced for export patterns
30. Intraregional Trade By 2025
Under Current Trends
Source: Badiane et al. 2014
INTRA REGIONAL TRADE OUTLOOK
31. BARRIERS TO AFRICAN TRADE PERFORMANCE
Source: Bouët, Cosnard and Laborde, 2017
0% 200% 400% 600% 800%
Mayotte
Namibia
Comoros
Djibouti
Senegal
Centr. Af.r R.
South Africa
Burundi
Gambia, The
Chad
Algeria
Average Import Duty
Average Ad-Valorem NTM
Cost of Time to Import (Border)
Cost of Time to Import
(Documentary)
Components of import cost - 2004/2013
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
Sudan
Mayotte
Mauritius
Mali
Ethiopia
Sierra Leone
Chad
South Africa
Namibia
Cote d'Ivoire
Angola
Congo DR
Average Export Duty
Export restrictions
Cost of Time to Export (Border)
Cost of Time to Export
(Documentary)
Border costs to export NTMNTM
Components of export cost - 2004/2013
NTB are by far more important impediments to agricultural trade by African countries than tariffs measures
32. Exports
to African Markets
Exports
to Non African Markets
GDP in importing Market + ++
GDP of exporting African country ++ ++
Per capita GDP in importing Market ++
Per capita GDP of exporting African country - - -
Quality of port in exporting African country ++ ++
Efficiency of custom clearings Index ++ ++
Quality of transport infrastructure +
Share of PAE in agricultural GDP + +
Arable land in exporting African country -
Agricultural labor in exporting African country -
NTB in importing market -
Average tariff level in importing market + -
Belonging to same regional eco. community ++
DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORT PERFORMANCE BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES
33. POLICY OPTIONS TO BOOST INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE
Source: Badiane et al. 2014
Three policy options for
competitive domestic value
chains in regional markets
Notes: Notes: * COMESA+Tanzania. Figures on top of bars indicate cumulative increases in regional export supply in 1000 mt.
38. READY TO EAT
MILLET
MEALS ON THE SHELF
TRADITIONAL MILLET
BASED MEALS
HOME
BASED
MILLET
PROCESSING
READY TO COOK
MILLET PRODCUTS
ON THE SHELF
3. THE NEW MILLET VALUE CHAIN
RAPDIDLY TRANSFORMING REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS
39. Renewed growth in Africa’s agricultural sector
Rapid expansion in agricultural exports and imports
Rising incomes, urbanization and population
Demand grows faster than production, hence import gap
Potential to expand intra-trade is substantial
Requires removal of numerous local barriers to trade
Rapidly transforming value chains
Growth of nascent processing sector will determine trade
Europe has become a net exporter but is losing shares
Asia slowly catching up to Americas as main supplier
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
1
2
3
4
5
40. Renewed growth in Africa’s agricultural sector
Rapid expansion in agricultural exports and imports
Rising incomes, urbanization and population
Demand grows faster than production, hence import gap
Potential to expand intra-trade is substantial
Requires removal of numerous local barriers to trade
Rapidly transforming value chains
Growth of nascent processing sector will determine trade
Europe has become a net exporter but is losing shares
Asia slowly catching up to Americas as main supplier
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
1
2
3
4
5
41. Renewed growth in Africa’s agricultural sector
Rapid expansion in agricultural exports and imports
Rising incomes, urbanization and population
Demand grows faster than production, hence import gap
Potential to expand intra-trade is substantial
Requires removal of numerous local barriers to trade
Rapidly transforming value chains
Growth of nascent processing sector will determine trade
Europe has become a net exporter but is losing shares
Asia slowly catching up to Americas as main supplier
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
1
2
3
4
5
42. Renewed growth in Africa’s agricultural sector
Rapid expansion in agricultural exports and imports
Rising incomes, urbanization and population
Demand grows faster than production, hence import gap
Potential to expand intra-trade is substantial
Requires removal of numerous local barriers to trade
Rapidly transforming value chains
Growth of nascent processing sector will determine trade
Europe has become a net exporter but is losing shares
Asia slowly catching up to Americas as main supplier
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
1
2
3
4
4
43. Renewed growth in Africa’s agricultural sector
Rapid expansion in agricultural exports and imports
Rising incomes, urbanization and population
Demand grows faster than production, hence import gap
Potential to expand intra-trade is substantial
Requires removal of numerous local barriers to trade
Rapidly transforming value chains
Growth of nascent processing sector will determine trade
Europe has become a net exporter but is losing shares
Asia slowly catching up to Americas as main supplier
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
1
2
3
4
5
44. REFERENCES
Badiane, O. S. Odjo and J. Collins. 2018. Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor. International Food Policy Research
Institute. Washington DC.
Badiane, O. 2014. “Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Africa.” In Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on
sub-Saharan Africa, edited by W. P. Falcon and R. L. Naylor. Stanford, CA, US: Stanford University, Center on Food
Security and the Environment. Printed by CreateSpace.
Badiane, O. and T. Makombe (Eds). Beyond a Middle Income Africa: Transforming African Economies for Sustained
Growth with Rising Employment and Incomes. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report.
Badiane, O., and T. Makombe. 2015. “Agriculture, Growth, and Development in Africa: Theory and Practice.” In
Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics, Vol. 2, edited by C. Monga and J. Lin. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Badiane, O. and McMillan, M. 2016. Economic transformation in Africa: Patterns, drivers, and implications for future
growth strategies. In Badiane, O. and T. Makombe (Eds). Beyond a Middle Income Africa: Transforming African
Economies for Sustained Growth with Rising Employment and Incomes. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report.