Presentation at the Infraday conference in Berlin 2010. Briefly wraps up the research on both Dutch and German airline ticket taxation

1. October 8, 2010 ModellingConsumerBehaviour in AirportSelection A System Dynamics perspective on the Dutch (and German) ticket tax Bart Steverink – bart@bsoms.com INFRAday 2010, Berlin The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM) Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management

2. October 8, 2010 Contents 1 Introduction & ProblemDescription Research Questions & Methodology ModellingMethod Overview of the Model Results Conclusions Further Research 2 3 2

3. October 8, 2010 3 12 3

5. Abolished after 1 year

6. The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM) initiated an ex-post analysis in January 2010

8. October 8, 2010 Research Questions Whichmethod is suitable to model consumerbehaviour and airportcompetition? Which factors and mechanismsinfluenced the redistribution of passengers as a result of the ticket tax? Ifthere is a structuralchange, whatcanbedone to influencethischange? 6 Method Mechanism Policy

9. October 8, 2010 Methodology Literature study/interviews How decisions are made? What determines airport quality? How do people obtain information? Computer Simulation Model Reduce complexity How do the different concepts from literature interact over time? How can the choice be influenced? 7

10. October 8, 2010 8 1 2 3

11. October 8, 2010 Modelling MethodComparison of Modelling Methods

13. Previous studies

14. Airport statistics

15. KiM Airport Choice Survey 201010

16. October 8, 2010 Overview of the ModelSelection of airports 3 Airports selected for case study: Eindhoven Weeze (Brussels South) Charleroi Because: Overlapping catchment areas Very similar type of services “Footloose” character of low-cost carriers Target market relatively price sensitive 11

17. October 8, 2010 Overview of the ModelTotal system (simplified) 12 Demand Airlines Consumers Utility perception Price Optimal use of fleet Information transfer Awareness # of flights Supply

18. October 8, 2010 Overview of the ModelConsumers 3 pieces of information required to make a decision: Preferences Alternatives (airports) Attributes of alternatives: Price airline ticket Number of flights Access time Learning by using, talking and marketing Forgetting as a result of lack of exposure 13

19. October 8, 2010 Overview of the ModelAirlines Optimize fleet utilization by: Adding flights in case of high demand Reducing flights when demand is low Adjusting price according to demand 14

20. October 8, 2010 15 1 2 3

21. October 8, 2010 ResultsComparison with Empirical data Growth Eindhoven compared to same month last year 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Tax % real model 16

22. October 8, 2010 ResultsEffect of marketing 17 Awareness of Dutch people of Weeze % of people aware Boost Normal

23. October 8, 2010 ResultsInfluence of Awareness 18 Dutch people going to Weeze % of Dutch Tax No tax

24. October 8, 2010 Conclusions SD is a suitable method but has limitations Transfer of information by marketing, talking to friends and neighbours and by direct experience. A structural effect of the tax is seen if: The supply can grow fast enough Enough attention is generated Policies that influence information availability are effective 19 Method Mechanism Policy

25. October 8, 2010 Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax Somepreliminaryconclusionsbasedon the model: Dutch passengerswill return to Dutch airports, reactionfromGermanpassengers low, due to low awareness and threshold of flightsupply Re-implementation of Dutch taxreducesnumber of Dutch passengersreturning to NL and increasestraffic at Belgianairports Opportunitiesfornear border airportslikeMaastricht-Aachen and (maybe) Twente 20

26. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax October 8, 2010 21 Percentage of population (NL and D) choosingairport Weeze (from NL) Eindhoven (from D)

27. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax October 8, 2010 22 Percentage of Dutch leisurepassengersreturning to EHN NL and GermanTax Re-impl. Dutch Tax

28. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax October 8, 2010 23 Percentage of Dutch choosing Charleroi Re-impl. Dutch Tax NL and GermanTax

30. October 8, 2010 Further Research Twodirectionsforfurther research: Simplifystructure and expandboundaries More numericalprecision 25