1. A Glimpse into Energy Trends
Alessandro Blasi
Office of the Chief Economist
International Energy Agency
Rome, 18 April 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011

2. The context: fresh challenges
add to already worrying trends
 Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy &
limited the means of intervention
 Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty
 MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans
 CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high
© OECD/IEA 2011

3. Emerging economies continue
to drive global energy demand
Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
4 500
Mtoe
4 000 China
3 500 India
3 000 Other developing Asia
2 500 Russia
Middle East
2 000
Rest of world
1 500
OECD
1 000
500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035,
with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
© OECD/IEA 2011

4. Natural gas & renewables become
increasingly important
World primary energy demand
5 000
Mtoe
Additional
to 2035
4 000
2010
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds
of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035
© OECD/IEA 2011

5. Energy efficiency is crucial for energy
security, climate change and … our pockets
Annual change in global energy intensity for selected periods
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009 2010
Global energy efficiency development is going in the wrong direction
© OECD/IEA 2011

6. Efficiency improvements in transport
sector limit oil demand growth
World PLDV oil demand in the New Policies Scenario
45
mb/d
Oil demand
40
35 Increase 2010-2035 due to:
Fleet expansion
30
25 Decrease 2010-2035 due to:
20 Improvement in fuel economy
15 Lower average vehicle usage
10 Use of alternative fuels
5
0
2010 2035
Oil use by cars expands by only 15% between 2010 & 2035, with more efficient vehicles, less
usage & switching to non-oil fuels offsetting most of the impact of a doubling of the fleet
© OECD/IEA 2011

7. Changing oil import needs are set to
shift concerns about oil security
Net imports of oil
14
mb/d
2000
12
2010
10
2035
8
6
4
2
0
China India European United Japan
Union States
US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency: EU imports
overtake those of the US around 2015; China becomes the largest importer around 2020
© OECD/IEA 2011

8. EU’s oil and gas import bills
recorded historical high
450 3.3%
3.1%
400
Debt of Greek
350 2.7% government (end of 2011
300
2.2%
EUR billion
EU’s net import bills
250
Gas
200 Oil
150 % Share of GDP
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011
EU spending on imports was almost two-thirds higher in 2011 than 2009 as a result of
higher international oil prices & oil-indexed gas prices
© OECD/IEA 2011

9. Efficiency gains can contribute
most to EU emissions reductions
European Union energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the
450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
4.0
Gt
3.5 Abatement
New Policies 2020 2035
Scenario Efficiency 68% 48%
3.0
Renewables 25% 21%
Biofuels 2% 6%
2.5
Nuclear 1% 11%
CCS 3% 14%
2.0 Total (Mt CO2) 269 1032
450 Scenario
1.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy efficiency measures – driven by strong policy action across all sectors – account for
50% of the cumulative CO2 abatement over the Outlook period
© OECD/IEA 2011

10. Why energy efficiency does matter:
country case study - Russia
Energy savings from raising efficiency to comparable OECD levels, 2008
Electricity and heat Energy consumption
Other energy sector Potential savings
Indirect savings
Gas flaring
Industry
Final consumption
Transport
Buildings
Other
- 100 0 100 200 300 400
Mtoe
The current international market value of the primary resources that could be saved by
deploying more efficient energy technologies is about $70 billion
© OECD/IEA 2011

11. Overview of WEO-2012
 A full update of energy projections
 by country, fuel & sector, to 2035
 Objective & comprehensive analysis of topical issues
 Fuel focus: energy efficiency – how to unlock the potential
 climate impact on energy trends
 energy-water nexus
 indicators to track energy access
 In addition, 2 special reports
 29 May: the role of best practices (“Golden Rules”) for
a Golden Age of Gas
 Early October: first-ever in-depth outlook for Iraq
(also included in full WEO)
 Full WEO-2012 launch on 12 November
© OECD/IEA 2011

12. Grazie!
Alessandro.blasi@iea.org
www.iea.org
www.worldenergyoutlook.org
© OECD/IEA 2011