eMarketer Worldwide Ad Spending Forecast - 2013 - 2016

Copyright ©2013 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Total Media Ad Spending 2
Worldwide Digital Ad Spending 3
Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending 4
Asia-Pacific 6
Eastern Europe 7
Latin America 8
Middle East & Africa 9
North America 10
Western Europe 11
Conclusions 13
Related eMarketer Reports 13
January 2013
Executive Summary: eMarketer forecasts that advertising expenditures totaled $518.8 billion worldwide in 2012.
By 2016, the amount spent on total media advertising will near $630 billion.
148475
Worldwide digital ad spending topped $100 billion in 2012,
making up nearly 20% of total advertising investments. Across
the globe, digital ad spending is increasing faster than total
media ad spending, making digital a key driver of total ad
expenditures worldwide. Digital ad spending will continue to
expand its share of total media ad spending through 2016. At
that point, one in four advertising dollars will go towards online
and mobile advertising.
North America will dominate digital advertising through 2016,
though the region will lose share throughout the forecast period
as marketers in Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America and
the Middle East and Africa expand their advertising investments.
Countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, India and China
will help drive growth in these regions. eMarketer anticipates
that in 2013, Asia-Pacific will become the No. 2 region for digital
advertising investments, as a dramatic expansion of digital
advertising in China pushes the region past Western Europe.
This report highlights eMarketer’s forecast for total media, digital
and mobile ad spending around the world. The projections,
which run through 2016, cover North America, Asia-Pacific,
Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle
East and Africa.
billions, % change and % of total media ad spending
Digital Ad Spending Worldwide, 2010-2016
2010
$72.37
17.5%
15.2%
2011
$87.27
20.6%
17.7%
2012
$102.83
17.8%
19.8%
2013
$118.40
15.1%
21.7%
2014
$134.65
13.7%
23.4%
2015
$149.18
10.8%
24.8%
2016
$163.04
9.3%
25.9%
Digital ad spending % change % share
Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers
as well as mobile phones and tablets, and includes all the various formats
of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P
messaging-based advertising
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2012
148475 www.eMarketer.com
Alison McCarthy
amccarthy@emarketer.com
Contributors
Monica Peart, Martín Utreras, Haixia Wang
Worldwide Ad
Spending Forecast:
Emerging Markets, Mobile Provide
Opportunities for Growth

Worldwide Ad Spending Forecast: Emerging Markets, Mobile Provide Opportunity for Growth Copyright ©2013 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Worldwide Total Media Ad Spending
eMarketer estimates that marketers invested
$518.8 billion in total media advertising worldwide last
year. By 2015, total media ad expenditures will pass
the $600 billion mark.
NorthAmerica led all regions in total media ad spending in 2012,
with $179.3 billion or a 34.6% share of the total.Asia-Pacific followed
with an allocation of $145.9 billion or 28% of total spending.
billions
Total Media Ad Spending Worldwide, by Region,
2011-2016
North America
Asia-Pacific
Western Europe
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
Worldwide
2011
$170.98
$134.51
$119.81
$31.22
$19.76
$15.96
$492.25
2012
$179.34
$145.94
$120.28
$34.66
$21.40
$17.16
$518.78
2013
$185.53
$157.47
$123.17
$38.12
$23.12
$18.34
$545.75
2014
$192.70
$168.81
$126.37
$42.70
$24.85
$19.61
$575.04
2015
$197.99
$179.79
$128.90
$46.75
$26.59
$20.79
$600.81
2016
$204.43
$190.93
$131.22
$51.33
$28.32
$21.97
$628.21
Note: includes digital (online and mobile), directories, magazines,
newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV; numbers may not add up to total due to
rounding
147993
North America, along with Western Europe—the region with
the third-largest portion of the global advertising market—
will lose share throughout the forecast period as emerging
regions grow their advertising expenditures and expand their
investments. eMarketer predicts that Asia-Pacific and Latin
America will see the biggest gains in share through 2016.
% of total
Total Media Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region,
2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North America 34.7% 34.6% 34.0% 33.5% 33.0%
Asia-Pacific 27.3% 28.1% 28.9% 29.4% 29.9%
Western Europe 24.3% 23.2% 22.6% 22.0% 21.5%
Latin America 6.3% 6.7% 7.0% 7.4% 7.8%
Eastern Europe 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%
Middle East & Africa 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
2016
32.5%
30.4%
20.9%
8.2%
4.5%
3.5%
newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV; numbers may not add up to 100% due
to rounding
147997
Growth of total media ad spending worldwide will hover at
just above 5% between 2012 and 2014, a slightly slower rate
than eMarketer previously forecast. This lowered forecast is
due to economic conditions around the world. Total media
ad spending’s 5.4% growth rate between 2011 and 2012
was partially boosted by the Olympic Games and the US
presidential election. Despite economic woes in Western
Europe and political turmoil in the Middle East and Africa,
there is still healthy growth across most regions. Digital ad
spending—consisting of online and mobile ad spending—
will be a driving force of total media ad spending growth
throughout the forecast period. Overall ad spending has
reached maturity in North America and Western Europe.
Growth will be slowest in these two regions, though Western
Europe will see a bump in 2013 due to an expected economic
recovery for the region.
Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and
Latin America will each experience higher-than-average
increases in total media ad spending for the entirety of
the forecast, driven primarily by their rapidly expanding
economies and growing number of internet users. Latin
America will experience the fastest total media ad spending
growth for the entirety of the forecast, fueled by spending
increases in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. But Latin America’s
spending gains will come from a much smaller value base
than those of North America, Western Europe and Asia-Pacific,
with spending reaching only $51 billion by 2016.
% change
Total Media Ad Spending Growth Worldwide,
by Region, 2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latin America 13.9% 11.0% 10.0% 12.0% 9.5%
Asia-Pacific 2.9% 8.5% 7.9% 7.2% 6.5%
Eastern Europe 5.3% 8.3% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0%
Middle East & Africa 10.7% 7.5% 6.9% 6.9% 6.0%
North America 3.1% 4.9% 3.5% 3.9% 2.7%
Western Europe 1.6% 0.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0%
Worldwide 3.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.4% 4.5%
9.8%
6.2%
6.5%
5.7%
3.3%
1.8%
4.6%
newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV
147995

Worldwide Digital Ad Spending
Worldwide digital ad spending topped $100 billion in
2012,according to eMarketer calculations.Digital ad
expenditures are projected to nearly double between
2011 and 2016,increasing to $163 billion from $87.3 billion.
Marketers in North America allocated $40.1 billion to digital
advertising in 2012, leading the global market. Rapid growth
in Indonesia, India and China will help thrust Asia-Pacific past
Western Europe to become the region with the second-highest
digital ad expenditures in 2013.
billions
Digital Ad Spending Worldwide, by Region, 2011-2016
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Worldwide
2011
$34.42
$25.01
$21.85
$2.94
$2.46
$0.59
$87.27
2012
$40.12
$27.66
$27.31
$3.49
$3.37
$0.87
$102.83
2013
$45.67
$30.70
$32.50
$4.10
$4.15
$1.28
$118.40
2014
$51.36
$33.77
$37.70
$4.73
$5.31
$1.78
$134.65
2015
$56.01
$36.27
$42.98
$5.35
$6.26
$2.31
$149.18
2016
$59.79
$38.66
$48.57
$5.83
$7.26
$2.92
$163.04
of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-
based advertising; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding
148093
Nearly one in three people worldwide are now internet users,
and advertisers across the globe are following these users
online. Worldwide, digital ad spending represented nearly
20% of total media ad spending last year and will continue
expanding its share of media spending through 2016, when it
will reach 25.9% of the total.
Digital Ad Spending Worldwide as a Percent of Total
Media Ad Spending, by Region, 2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Western Europe 20.9% 23.0% 24.9% 26.7% 28.1% 29.5%
North America 20.1% 22.4% 24.6% 26.7% 28.3% 29.2%
Asia-Pacific 16.2% 18.7% 20.6% 22.3% 23.9% 25.4%
Eastern Europe 14.9% 16.3% 17.7% 19.0% 20.1% 20.6%
Latin America 7.9% 9.7% 10.9% 12.4% 13.4% 14.1%
Middle East & Africa 3.7% 5.1% 7.0% 9.1% 11.1% 13.3%
Worldwide 17.7% 19.8% 21.7% 23.4% 24.8% 25.9%
149075
North America will claim the biggest piece of the digital ad
spending pie throughout the entirety of the forecast period.
However, the region began to lose share in 2011 as the
emerging economies of Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin
America and the Middle East and Africa started to increase
their digital advertising spending. This trend will continue
through 2016. eMarketer expects Asia-Pacific to experience
the biggest growth in share, jumping 4.8 percentage points
between 2011 and 2016.
% of total
Digital Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region,
2011-2016
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Eastern Europe
Latin America
2011
39.4%
28.7%
25.0%
3.4%
2.8%
0.7%
2012
39.0%
26.9%
26.6%
3.4%
3.3%
0.8%
2013
38.6%
25.9%
27.4%
3.5%
3.5%
1.1%
2014
38.1%
25.1%
28.0%
3.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2015
37.5%
24.3%
28.8%
3.6%
4.2%
1.5%
2016
36.7%
23.7%
29.8%
3.6%
4.5%
1.8%
based advertising; numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding
148098
Worldwide investment in digital advertising increased 17.8%
last year, compared to total media ad spending’s growth rate
of 5.4%. eMarketer has reduced its estimate for worldwide
digital ad spending growth by 1.2 percentage points from
its September 2012 forecast due to slower-than-expected
percentage gains in countries such as the US, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain and Indonesia.
But opportunity for growth remains significant, particularly
in the burgeoning digital advertising markets of Indonesia,
Brazil, Argentina, India and China, which will help drive
spending worldwide.
% change
Digital Ad Spending Growth Worldwide, by Region,
2010-2016
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
Eastern Europe
North America
Western Europe
Worldwide
2010
70.0%
27.0%
20.0%
32.7%
15.6%
15.5%
17.5%
2011
55.8%
34.0%
23.1%
38.4%
21.5%
13.9%
20.6%
2012
47.9%
37.0%
25.0%
18.9%
16.6%
10.6%
17.8%
2013
47.4%
23.0%
19.0%
17.3%
13.8%
11.0%
15.1%
2014
38.5%
28.0%
16.0%
15.5%
12.4%
10.0%
13.7%
2015
30.0%
18.0%
14.0%
13.0%
9.0%
7.4%
10.8%
2016
26.5%
16.0%
13.0%
9.0%
6.8%
6.6%
9.3%
based advertising
148094
Even as North America and Western Europe lose share
to other regions, their total media spending per person
throughout the forecast period will remain higher than those
of other regions. In 2016, marketers in North America will
register $206 in digital ad spending per internet user, while
those in Asia-Pacific will devote only $35 to each internet user.

Digital Ad Spending per Internet User Worldwide, by
Region, 2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America $133 $151 $168 $185 $197 $206
Western Europe $96 $104 $112 $120 $127 $133
Asia-Paciﬁc $23 $26 $28 $30 $32 $35
Eastern Europe $15 $17 $18 $19 $21 $22
Latin America $11 $13 $15 $18 $20 $22
Middle East & Africa $3 $4 $5 $7 $8 $10
Worldwide $42 $45 $48 $51 $54 $57
148527
Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending
eMarketer calculates 1.4 billion people, or one in
five people around the world, went online via their
mobile device in 2012. Mobile usage has helped drive
internet adoption in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and
the Middle East and Africa. Marketers have begun to
allocate larger portions of their advertising budgets to
the mobile ad market in recent years.
Worldwide mobile ad spending reached $8.4 billion last year,
eMarketer estimates. By the end of the forecast, investments
in mobile advertising will more than quadruple to $36.9 billion.
Asia-Pacific previously had the largest mobile ad expenditures
worldwide, primarily due to advanced mobile advertising markets
in Japan and South Korea. However, consumers are rapidly
adopting smartphones and tablets in the US, and marketers
there are taking advantage of growing mobile ad opportunities.
Because of this, North America surpassed Asia-Pacific last year
with $3.9 billion in mobile ad spending. In 2015, an expected rise
in mobile ad investments in Western Europe will push Asia-Pacific
to third place.
millions
Mobile Ad Spending Worldwide, by Region, 2011-2016
North
America
Asia-
Paciﬁc
Western
Europe
Latin
America
Eastern
Europe
Middle East
& Africa
World-
wide
2011
$1,261.7
$1,895.6
$845.0
$42.6
$36.4
$3.5
$4,084.8
2012
$3,948.4
$2,653.8
$1,647.8
$79.2
$70.4
$7.1
$8,406.7
2013
$7,162.6
$3,412.8
$2,735.3
$140.2
$117.0
$13.4
$13,581.3
2014
$11,245.1
$4,313.8
$4,294.4
$259.3
$162.1
$22.8
$20,297.5
2015
$16,117.9
$5,314.6
$6,355.7
$414.9
$210.8
$36.4
$28,450.3
2016
$21,391.7
$6,191.6
$8,389.5
$580.9
$261.4
$58.3
$36,873.3
Note: includes display (banners, video and rich media) and search; excludes
SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising; includes ad spending on
tablets
148422
Rapid mobile internet adoption combined with the continued
development of mobile ad networks and greater choice of
mobile ad formats will significantly enhance how marketers
use mobile to engage consumers, especially in the more
advanced advertising economies of North America and
Western Europe. Facebook’s and Twitter’s mobile advertising
streams, as well as mobile’s potential for audience targeting,
will also attract marketers.
In 2011, Asia-Pacific had a 15.5-percentage-point lead in share
of worldwide mobile ad spending over North America. By
Worldwide Digital Ad Spending

the end of 2012, that lead flipped, with North America 15.4
percentage points ahead of Asia-Pacific in mobile ad share,
reaching 47% of the global total while Asia-Pacific’s share
dropped to 31.6%. North America will continue to expand its
portion of the total throughout the forecast period, reaching
58% in 2016. Western Europe will also see a jump in share,
while Asia-Pacific’s share will fall 14.8 percentage points by the
end of the forecast period.
% of total
Mobile Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region,
2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America 30.9% 47.0% 52.7% 55.4% 56.7% 58.0%
Asia-Pacific 46.4% 31.6% 25.1% 21.3% 18.7% 16.8%
Western Europe 20.7% 19.6% 20.1% 21.2% 22.3% 22.8%
Latin America 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%
Eastern Europe 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%
tablets; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
148425
Worldwide mobile ad spending growth peaked last year
at 105.8%, following 2011’s updated growth rate of 74.6%.
Because of faster-than-expected increases in the US, UK,
Spain, China and the Middle East and Africa, eMarketer
increased its 2012 estimate for the growth of worldwide
mobile ad spending since its previous forecast by 42.8
percentage points, up from 63%.
Rapid percentage gains will be seen throughout the forecast
period in all of the regions included in the forecast. In 2012,
increases in mobile ad spending in Western Europe, Eastern
Europe and the Middle East and Africa were each more than
90%. Latin America followed at 86%. Mobile ad expenditures
in Asia-Pacific grew at a slower pace due to the mobile ad
economies already in place in the region. North America
experienced a massive 212.9% gain.
% change
Mobile Ad Spending Growth Worldwide, by Region,
2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America 129.3% 212.9% 81.4% 57.0% 43.3% 32.7%
Western Europe 92.0% 95.0% 66.0% 57.0% 48.0% 32.0%
Eastern Europe 25.1% 93.5% 66.2% 38.6% 30.0% 24.0%
Latin America 143.3% 86.0% 77.0% 85.0% 60.0% 40.0%
Asia-Pacific 45.6% 40.0% 28.6% 26.4% 23.2% 16.5%
Worldwide 74.6% 105.8% 61.6% 49.5% 40.2% 29.6%
tablets
148423
The amount spent on mobile advertising per mobile internet
user will remain quite low in most regions through 2016.
Last year, advertisers in North America and Western Europe
dedicated $30 and $15 per user, respectively, while those in
Asia-Pacific spent only $3 per user. By 2016, advertisers in
Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa
will still spend only $2 or less per user on mobile advertising.
Mobile Ad Spending Worldwide per Mobile Internet
User, by Region, 2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America $12 $30 $46 $63 $81 $99
Western Europe $10 $15 $19 $23 $28 $33
Asia-Pacific $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $5
Latin America $1 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2
Eastern Europe $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Middle East & Africa $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Worldwide $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $15
tablets
148526
Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending

Asia-Pacific
■■ With $145.9 billion in total advertising, Asia-Pacific had
the second-largest advertising economy worldwide after
North America in 2012. eMarketer predicts that beginning
in 2012 and through the rest of the forecast period, total
ad spending in Asia-Pacific will grow faster than in North
America, thanks to budding advertising economies and
extraordinary growth rates in internet and mobile internet
use in China, Indonesia and India.
■■ With investments of $47.3 billion last year, or one-third of
Asia-Pacific’s total, Japan led the other countries in the
region in ad spending, bouncing back from a 5.9% decline in
traditional media ad spending in 2011 that resulted from the
March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
■■ Japan’s setback in ad spending in 2011, combined
with China’s robust consumer base and the increasing
advertising opportunities marketers are taking advantage
of there, will help propel China ahead of Japan in ad
investments by $3.4 billion in 2014. At that point, China will
make up 31% of Asia-Pacific’s total and will be second only
to the US in ad spending worldwide.
■■ Driven by a rise in TV viewing, a growing middle class and a
greater volume of direct foreign investment, Indonesia will
experience a similar growth rate for total media ad spending
as China throughout the forecast period, though on a much
smaller scale. Indonesia’s ad economy remains mostly
reliant on traditional media advertising formats such as TV,
magazines and newspapers.
■■ Digital ad expenditures in Asia-Pacific reached $27.3 billion in
2012.Asia-Pacific is expected to become the second-largest
digital ad market in the world by the end of this year, when
the region surpasses Western Europe by nearly $2 billion.
Asia-Pacific will experience massive growth throughout
the forecast period, having achieved a peak 25% increase
last year.
■■ The amount marketers will devote towards digital ad
spending in Indonesia, China and India will increase faster
than Asia-Pacific’s overall regional growth through 2016.
Indonesia is forecast to see especially high growth, though
this will be primarily due to fact that the country recorded
only $140 million in digital advertising last year.
■■ By 2014, marketers in China will invest more in digital
advertising than their counterparts in Japan and the UK, as
China pushes ahead to the No. 2 spot in worldwide digital
ad expenditures. China’s share of digital ad spending in
the region is expected to rise to 36.1% in 2016 from 27%
in 2012, while Japan’s share will drop from 35.1% to 25.8%.
The rise of search and social network ad spending is
primarily driving China’s growth. Online video viewership
is also contributing to increases in digital ad spending
in China as the government restricts certain types of
television programming.
■■ At 18.7%, digital ad spending as a percentage of total
media ad spending in Asia-Pacific was 1 percentage point
lower than the worldwide average last year. While the
more mature digital ad economies of Australia, Japan and
South Korea made up large portions of total media ad
spending, digital ad spending in Indonesia accounted for
only 2.2% of that country’s ad expenditures, lowering the
region’s average.
■■ eMarketer calculated Asia-Pacific’s mobile ad market as
the second highest worldwide in 2012, with investments
reaching nearly $2.7 billion. Japan, an advanced mobile
market, accounted for $1.7 billion, or 65% of the region’s
total. By 2016, mobile ad spending in Asia Pacific will total
$6.2 billion, driven by a surge in growth in China, India and
Indonesia. Japan’s share is expected to drop to 43.1% at that
time due to China’s dramatic expansion in the region.
■■ China’s current mobile ad market is relatively undeveloped,
and advertisers in the country have not been as quick to
adopt mobile advertising as marketers in Japan, South Korea
and Australia. But this is expected to change as mobile
internet use in China becomes more popular and marketers
become more adept at connecting to mobile users via their
devices. eMarketer has increased its growth projection for
mobile ad spending in China for 2012 to 138%, up from its
previous forecast of 80%. China’s regional share will climb
to 31.4% in 2016, up from 9.7% in 2012. By the end of the
forecast period, mobile advertising in China is forecast to be
a $2 billion market.
■■ Mobile ad spending in Asia-Pacific will account for 9.7% of
digital ad spending in the region in 2012 and is set to reach
12.7% in 2016. The more advanced mobile ad markets
of Japan and South Korea each represented 18% of their
countries’ digital ad expenditures last year, raising the
region’s average. Mobile ad spending in China is predicted
to climb from 3.5% of the country’s digital ad spending in
2012 to 11.1% in 2016.

millions
Mobile, Digital and Total Media Ad Spending in
Asia-Pacific, by Country, 2012 & 2016
Mobile Digital Total media
Japan
China
Australia
South Korea
Indonesia
India
Other
Asia-Pacific
2012
$1,740
$258
$73
$451
$5
$10
$117
$2,654
2016
$2,671
$1,942
$186
$763
$52
$102
$476
$6,192
2012
$9,599
$7,365
$2,736
$2,499
$136
$484
$4,492
$27,311
2016
$12,554
$17,508
$4,054
$3,245
$1,158
$1,307
$8,739
$48,566
2012
$47,247
$42,570
$11,778
$9,346
$6,201
$5,881
$22,921
$145,944
2016
$51,532
$64,037
$13,116
$10,518
$9,576
$8,076
$34,077
$190,932
Note: numbers may not add up to total due to rounding
148482
Mobile, Digital and Total Media Ad Spending CAGR
and Share in Asia-Pacific, by Country, 2012-2016
South Korea
Australia
Japan
China
India
Indonesia
Other
Asia-Pacific
26.7%
23.2%
20.3%
17.3%
8.2%
2.2%
19.6%
18.7%
30.9%
30.9%
24.4%
27.3%
16.2%
12.1%
25.6%
25.4%
18.0%
2.7%
18.1%
3.5%
2.0%
3.3%
2.6%
9.7%
23.5%
4.6%
21.3%
11.1%
7.8%
4.5%
5.4%
12.7%
14.1%
26.4%
11.3%
65.6%
78.9%
83.7%
41.9%
23.6%
6.7%
10.3%
6.9%
24.2%
28.2%
70.7%
18.1%
15.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.2%
10.7%
8.2%
11.5%
10.4%
6.9%
Digital
% of total
Mobile
% of digital
2012 2016 2012 2016 CAGR (2012-2016)
Mobile Digital
Total
media
148483
Eastern Europe
■■ Marketers in Eastern Europe allocated $21.4 billion in total media
advertising in 2012.This is expected to rise to $28.3 billion by
2016.Russia,the region’s biggest advertising market,accounted
for $9.2 billion of Eastern Europe’s total media ad spending in
2012.By the end of the forecast period,Russia will account for
nearly half of all expenditures in the region.
■■ eMarketer estimates that total media ad spending in Eastern
Europe increased 8.3% in 2012, up from a 5.3% gain in 2011.
Percentage gains are expected to slow slightly throughout the
forecast but maintain a moderate trajectory. Russia is driving
Eastern Europe’s growth, as Western Europe’s economic
turmoil has affected Russia less than other countries in the
region.At 15%, Russia experienced faster growth than the
overall region in 2012. Russia’s total media ad spending will
record double-digit increases yearly through 2015.
■■ At $3.5 billion, Eastern Europe committed relatively little
towards digital advertising last year compared to other
regions in the forecast. Digital ad spending in the region
is expected to increase to $5.8 billion by 2016. Russia
represented 49% of the total last year and will climb to 53%
of the total by the end of the forecast period.
■■ The expansion of broadband coverage has slowed
throughout Eastern Europe, dampening prospects for rapid
growth of investments in digital advertising. According to
eMarketer, digital ad spending increased 18.9% in 2012 in
Eastern Europe, down from a previous projection of 30%.
But Russia’s digital ad economy remains promising. Though
penetration is low compared to other countries in the
forecast, Russia’s internet user base is growing at a faster
pace than the regional average.
■■ By 2016, digital ad spending will account for 20% of total
media ad spending in Eastern Europe, up from last year’s
16.3% share. eMarketer expects that Russia’s digital ad
spending as a percentage of total media ad spending will
be two percentage points higher than Eastern Europe’s
average throughout the forecast period.
■■ Eastern Europe has not yet taken big steps towards mobile
advertising. eMarketer estimates Eastern Europe had the
second-lowest mobile ad spending total worldwide last
year, coming in above only the Middle East and Africa, with
$70 million. Russia accounted for $29 million of this total. By
2016, Russia will make up nearly half of Eastern Europe’s
total mobile ad spending.
■■ Such low levels of mobile ad spending leave much
opportunity for growth. Mobile ad spending in the region
will increase dramatically throughout the forecast period,
though it will remain quite small. In 2012, investments in
mobile ads jumped 93.5% in Eastern Europe, while Russia
Asia-Pacific

saw growth of 70%. The growth rates of mobile ad spending
in both Russia and Eastern Europe peaked last year,
mirroring the peak growth rate of mobile internet users in
2012. As more users go online through mobile devices, it is
expected that marketers will follow.
■■ Mobile’s portion of digital ad spending in Eastern Europe
will more than double between 2012 and 2016, but will still
make up only 4.5% of digital spending by the end of the
forecast period. Mobile ad spending as a percentage of
digital ad spending in Russia will be slightly lower than the
overall region.
millions
Eastern Europe, by Country, 2012 & 2016
Russia
Other
Eastern Europe
2012
$29
$42
$70
2016
$122
$140
$261
2012
$1,713
$1,781
$3,494
2016
$3,116
$2,715
$5,830
2012
$9,242
$12,161
$21,403
2016
$14,024
$14,293
$28,317
148484
and Share in Eastern Europe, by Country, 2012-2016
Russia
Other
Eastern
Europe
18.5%
14.6%
16.3%
22.2%
19.0%
20.6%
1.7%
2.3%
2.0%
3.9%
5.1%
4.5%
43.6%
35.2%
38.8%
16.1%
11.1%
13.7%
11.0%
4.1%
7.2%
Digital
% of total
Mobile
% of digital
2012 2016 2012 2016 CAGR (2012-2016)
Mobile Digital
Total
media
148485
Latin America
■■ At $34.6 billion, Latin America had the third-smallest total
media ad expenditure tally last year, higher than only
Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa. More than
half of Latin America’s total media ad spending came from
Brazil, the sixth-largest economy in the world.
■■ While overall spending is relatively low compared to
other regions, Latin America will experience the fastest
total media ad spending growth among all of the regions
included in eMarketer’s forecast through 2016. Latin
America’s growth came in at 11% in 2012. At 20% in 2012,
the growth rate for total media ad spending in Argentina
was well over the worldwide average, boosted by the
country’s booming internet user population and large TV
audience. In 2013, Argentina is expected to overtake Mexico
to become the No. 2 country in ad spending regionally.
Strong gains will be seen in total media ad spending in Brazil
and Mexico as well. Overall, Latin America’s economies
have been less affected by the economic problems that
have recently hindered growth in North America and
Western Europe.
■■ Marketers in Latin America committed nearly $3.4 billion
towards digital advertising last year, a regional amount
greater than only the Middle East and Africa. Internet
penetration in Latin America is relatively low outside of
urban areas. eMarketer estimates that just over 42% of
the region’s residents were online in 2012. Nearly $2 billion
of Latin America’s digital ad spending came from Brazil, a
country with a rising middle class.
■■ Latin America is second only to the Middle East and Africa
as the fastest-growing digital ad market in the world. More
than half of the region’s population are expected to be
internet users by 2015. Last year, digital ad spending saw
gains of 40% in both Argentina and Brazil, while Mexico
recorded a 34% jump.
■■ Between 2012 and 2016, digital ad spending will climb
from 9.7% to 14.1% of total media ad expenditures in Latin
America.The share of digital ad spending in Mexico will
double within the next four years, rising from 11.9% to 22.1%.
■■ Approximately 17% of Latin America’s population went
online via mobile phone last year. eMarketer expects this
ratio to climb to one in three people by the end of the
forecast period. Though it is common for internet users
in the region to access the web primarily through mobile
devices, mobile ad spending is still quite small. Last year,
marketers in Latin America committed $79 million to mobile
advertising. Mobile advertising will increase to $580.9 million
by 2016, though this total will remain minute compared to
spending in other regions.
Eastern Europe

■■ Mexico experienced faster mobile adoption rates than Brazil
and Argentina in 2012 and will maintain that accelerated
pace in 2013. Mobile ad spending in Mexico accounted for
more than half of total mobile ad spending in Latin America
in 2012. 2011 saw large mobile ad campaigns from major
telecom operators based in Mexico, which contributed to
dramatic gains in the country’s spending. eMarketer expects
Mexico’s telecom operators to continue these significant
mobile advertising campaigns throughout the forecast
period. Brazil’s share was just under one-third of the total.
But Brazil hosts a promising mobile community: Mobile
internet users are expected to grow from 18% to 45% of the
country’s population between 2012 and 2016.
■■ Mobile ad spending in Latin America increased 86% in 2012,
and is expected to slow by only 9 percentage points in 2013.At
90.4% last year, Brazil experienced the fastest gains in mobile
ad spending in Latin America through 2015, driving the region’s
expansion in spending.Argentina and Mexico increased at a
similar rate in 2012, 73% and 75.6%, respectively.
■■ Mobile ad spending will make up a very small portion of
digital ad spending in Latin America, growing from 2.3% in
2012 to 8% in 2016. Mexico will drive this growth in share as
mobile expands from 7.8% to 19.3% of the country’s digital
ad spending within the next four years.
millions
Latin America, by Country, 2012 & 2016
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Other
Latin America
2012
$25
$42
$6
$7
$79
2016
$198
$260
$38
$85
$581
2012
$1,990
$532
$343
$505
$3,370
2016
$4,013
$1,343
$848
$1,059
$7,263
2012
$18,729
$4,473
$4,171
$7,282
$34,655
2016
$28,043
$6,084
$6,921
$10,284
$51,333
148486
and Share in Latin America, by Country, 2012-2016
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Other
Latin America
11.9%
10.6%
8.2%
6.9%
9.7%
22.1%
14.3%
12.3%
10.3%
14.1%
7.8%
1.2%
1.7%
1.4%
2.3%
19.3%
4.9%
4.4%
8.1%
8.0%
58.1%
68.5%
59.1%
85.4%
64.6%
26.0%
19.2%
25.4%
20.3%
21.2%
8.0%
10.6%
13.5%
9.0%
10.3%
Digital
% of total
Mobile
% of digital
2012 2016 2012 2016 CAGR (2012-2016)
Mobile Digital
Total
media
148487
■■ The Middle East and Africa, as a combined region, has the least
developed advertising economy in the world, with only
$17.2 billion in expenditures last year. Despite this small base,
total media ad spending will not grow as fast in the Middle East
and Africa as in other emerging regions. Based on new data,
eMarketer has lowered its growth projection for total media ad
spending to 7.5% in 2012 from the previous forecast of 12.5%.
By 2016, allocations will only reach $22 billion.
■■ The Middle East and Africa does lead in terms of worldwide
digital ad spending growth. Investments expanded by
47.9% in 2012, but totaled only $871 million, or 5% of the
region’s overall advertising outlay. eMarketer’s growth
forecast is high, driven by more advertising investment and
strengthening of consumer spending. Digital expenditures
will reach $2.9 billion by the end of the forecast period. The
question of whether or not viable economies will result
from recent political changes has contributed to uncertainty
about the region, as has the lack of measurement
systems, which have prevented marketers from receiving
demonstrable return on investment.
■■ eMarketer estimates that the amount spent on mobile
advertising throughout the Middle East and Africa came
to $7 million in 2012, or less than 1% of the region’s digital
ad spending. But mobile ad expenditures are rising rapidly
and will experience the fastest regional growth worldwide
this year. eMarketer has revised its growth forecast upward
for 2012 to 100% from 73.3%. But with spending barely
reaching $60 million in 2016, the Middle East and Africa still
has a few years to go before mobile advertising has any
major revenue potential.
millions
Mobile, Digital and Total Media Ad Spending in the
Middle East & Africa, 2012 & 2016
2012
$7
$871
$17,158
2016
$58
$2,923
$21,975
148488
Latin America

and Share in the Middle East & Africa, 2012-2016
Middle East &
Africa
5.1% 13.3% 0.8% 2.0% 69.6% 35.4% 6.4%
Digital
% of total
Mobile
% of digital
2012 2016 2012 2016 CAGR (2012-2016)
Mobile Digital
Total
media
148489
North America
■■ North America surpasses all other regions worldwide in
ad spending. Advertisers in the US and Canada invested
$179.3 billion in total media advertising in 2012 and will
increase their allocations to $204.4 billion in 2016, eMarketer
predicts. With $166 billion in ad dollars in 2012, the US
accounted for more than 92% of expenditures in the region.
■■ Total media ad spending in the US is near maturity, but
experienced a bump in growth in 2012, boosted by higher
spending around the Summer Olympics and the US
presidential election. eMarketer expects that the US grew its
ad spending by 4.9% last year, but growth will fall to 3.4% in
2013.Thereafter, increases will slow moderately throughout
the forecast period. eMarketer has decreased its estimate for
2012 from its previous forecast of 6.7% based on reductions
in the growth of digital ad spending, which is a main driver of
total media ad spending growth. Percentage gains in Canada
will be on a similar trajectory to the US through 2016.
■■ North America leads in digital ad spending worldwide due
to large investments from US advertisers.The US committed
$37.1 billion to digital advertising last year compared to
Canada’s $3 billion, figures reflecting the much greater number
of advertisers and digital users in the US vs. Canada.
■■ At 16.8%, the US had slightly higher growth in digital ad
spending than Canada’s rate of 13.5% last year.This trend will
continue through 2014. Based on the Interactive Advertising
Bureau’s (IAB) data for the first half of 2012 and on digital ad
spending’s faster-than-expected maturation, eMarketer has
lowered the projected 2012 rate of increase for US digital ad
spending from its earlier forecast of 23.3%.
■■ Because the US tends to guide digital trends elsewhere,
the factors driving the growth of US digital ad spending
will point to what will feed digital ad spending expansion
across the globe. Digital video—the fastest-growing digital
ad format—will especially help drive digital ad spending in
North America.
■■ Digital ad spending claimed the second-largest share of the
ad market in the US in 2012, at 22.5%, trailing only spending
on TV. Digital’s share will grow throughout the forecast
period, reaching 29.2% in 2016. A similar share for digital
was seen in Canada in 2012. In 2016, Canada’s digital share
will be 5 percentage points greater than digital’s share of
total ad spend in the US.
■■ eMarketer has increased its US growth projection for 2012
mobile ad spending to 220% from its previous projection of
80%. This increase is largely due to Google and Facebook’s
faster-than-expected transition to mobile advertising.
Strong mobile ad revenues for Twitter and Pandora as
well as for mobile ad networks have also contributed to

this upward revision. Driven by this massive uptick in US
mobile ad spending, North America surpassed Asia-Pacific
last year to become the region with the largest mobile ad
investment worldwide.
■■ Mobile ad spending in the US will increase nearly 450%
between 2012 and 2016, to $20.7 billion from $3.8 billion. At
$110 million in 2012, Canada’s allocation was much smaller,
though it is expected to increase by more than 500% by
2016, when it will total $691 million.
■■ With mobile advertising taking 10.4% of digital media
advertising in the US in 2012, it is clear that, though
marketers have begun to take advantage of mobile, much
opportunity for growth will remain. By 2016, mobile’s share
will increase to 37.6% of digital ad spending.
For more on advertising trends in the US, see
eMarketer’s October 2012 report “US Ad Spending
Forecast: Fall 2012 Update.”
millions
North America, by Country, 2012 & 2016
US
Canada
North America
2012
$3,839
$110
$3,948
2016
$20,700
$691
$21,392
2012
$37,081
$3,043
$40,124
2016
$55,052
$4,738
$59,790
2012
$165,960
$13,376
$179,337
2016
$189,226
$15,207
$204,432
148490
and Share in North America, by Country, 2012-2016
Canada
US
North America
22.8%
22.3%
22.4%
31.2%
29.1%
29.2%
3.6%
10.4%
9.8%
14.6%
37.6%
35.8%
58.4%
52.4%
52.6%
11.7%
10.4%
10.5%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Digital
% of total
Mobile
% of digital
2012 2016 2012 2016 CAGR (2012-2016)
Mobile Digital
Total
media
148491
Western Europe
■■ Total media ad spending in Western Europe reached
$120.3 billion last year, making it the region with the
third-largest sum worldwide. At $27.7 billion and $23.9 billion
last year, respectively, Germany and the UK had the two
largest tallies of total media advertising in the region in 2012.
Despite high levels of spending, advertisers are cautious
due to economic uncertainty in the region. Because of this,
spending for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK have
been reduced from eMarketer’s July 2012 forecast.
■■ Ad spending growth in Western Europe will be the slowest
for any region throughout eMarketer’s forecast period. Like
in North America, spending in Western Europe is reaching
maturity. This status, combined with the regional debt crisis
and the implementation of austerity measures in several
countries in the region, will contribute to spending gains
lower than the worldwide average through 2016. A decline
in growth will be seen in Spain, Italy and Finland this year.
The economies of Italy and Spain were hit especially hard
in 2012. eMarketer expects growth to rebound in 2013 and
2014 for all of the countries in the region.
■■ For the first time, eMarketer has included Denmark, Finland,
the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden in its Western Europe ad
spending forecast. Because these countries tend to be smaller
markets, their total media ad spending pales in comparison to
the amount spent in the EU-5 countries (i.e., France, Germany,
Italy, Spain and the UK).
■■ $27.7 billion in ad spending in Western Europe was
allocated towards digital last year. More than one-third
of digital ad expenditures in the region originated from
the UK. eMarketer has lowered its prediction for digital
ad spending across Western Europe due to the region’s
unsteady economies.
■■ Like for total media ad spending, Western Europe had the
slowest digital ad spending growth worldwide, at 10.6%
in 2012. At 14%, the UK led Western Europe in digital ad
spending gains, followed by Germany and Sweden. These
countries have been less affected by the European debt
crisis and have strong, highly engaged digital audiences
that marketers are connecting with. Display formats like
rich media and video will gain significant marketer attention
throughout the forecast period.
■■ Digital ad spending as a percentage of total media ad
spending in Western Europe will be on par with North
America throughout the forecast period, although it will vary
from country to country. Last year, the UK had the greatest
share worldwide of total media ad spending allocated to
digital, at 36.7%, while digital ad spending was only 13% of
total media ad spending in Italy.
North America

■■ Despite the fact that more than one in four people in
Western Europe went online via a mobile device last year,
mobile advertising investments in the region remained
small compared to North America and Asia-Pacific. Total
mobile spending in Western Europe totaled $1.65 billion in
2012. This is expected to increase to $8.4 billion by 2016.
With $721 million committed to mobile advertising, the UK
accounted for just under half of the region’s total last year.
■■ Based on new data, eMarketer increased its estimate of
2012 mobile ad spending growth in Western Europe, raising
the gain to 95% from 68.3%. At 170%, Sweden experienced
particularly aggressive growth last year. The country’s small
level of mobile ad spending combined with rapid consumer
adoption of mobile devices and marketers becoming more
engaged in mobile advertising will continue contributing to
the expansion. But Sweden’s growth rate will become more
consistent with that of its neighbors when it drops to 70% in
2013. The UK and Norway also experienced robust gains in
2012, at 120% each.
■■ Western Europe’s developed economies and high
smartphone usage will help push advertisers in the region
to allocate larger portions of their budgets toward mobile
throughout the forecast period. Across Western Europe,
mobile’s share of digital ad spending will climb to 22% in
2016 from 6% in 2012. By 2016, 28% of digital ad spending
in the UK will be devoted to mobile advertising, while more
than 18% of total digital dollars in Denmark, Germany, Italy
and Norway will come from mobile.
millions
Western Europe, by Country, 2012 & 2016
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Other
Western Europe
2012
$225
$721
$140
$113
$39
$78
$59
$51
$48
$21
$151
$1,648
2016
$1,393
$3,458
$626
$509
$207
$354
$211
$204
$189
$85
$1,154
$8,389
2012
$5,444
$8,796
$2,918
$1,702
$1,236
$1,572
$957
$827
$743
$359
$3,105
$27,521
2016
$7,486
$12,412
$4,004
$2,725
$1,843
$2,061
$1,214
$1,104
$1,001
$474
$4,342
$38,664
2012
$27,689
$23,968
$16,315
$12,895
$7,395
$5,597
$3,926
$2,895
$2,368
$1,892
$15,344
$120,284
2016
$29,301
$27,520
$17,062
$14,274
$8,213
$5,796
$4,183
$3,195
$2,513
$2,018
$17,147
$131,221
148494
and Share in Western Europe, by Country, 2012-2016
UK
Denmark
Norway
Netherlands
Sweden
Germany
Finland
France
Spain
Italy
Other
Western
Europe
36.7%
31.4%
28.6%
28.1%
24.4%
19.7%
19.0%
17.9%
16.7%
13.2%
20.2%
23.0%
45.1%
39.8%
34.5%
35.6%
29.0%
25.5%
23.5%
23.5%
22.4%
19.1%
25.3%
29.5%
8.2%
6.5%
6.2%
5.0%
6.2%
4.1%
5.9%
4.8%
3.2%
6.6%
4.9%
6.0%
27.9%
18.9%
18.5%
17.2%
17.4%
18.6%
17.9%
15.6%
11.2%
18.7%
26.6%
21.7%
48.0%
40.6%
41.2%
45.8%
37.5%
57.7%
41.2%
45.4%
51.6%
45.7%
66.3%
50.2%
9.0%
7.7%
7.5%
7.0%
6.1%
8.3%
7.2%
8.2%
10.5%
12.5%
8.7%
8.7%
3.5%
1.5%
2.5%
0.9%
1.6%
1.4%
1.6%
1.1%
2.7%
2.6%
2.8%
2.2%
Digital
% of total
Mobile
% of digital
2012 2016 2012 2016 CAGR (2012-2016)
Mobile Digital
Total
media
148495
Western Europe

Conclusions
North America will continue to dominate global total
media ad spending but will lose share throughout
the forecast period. Total media ad spending has reached
maturity in North America and Western Europe but will
continue to grow at a healthy pace in other regions—
especially Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Digital ad spending will expand its share of total media
ad spending through 2016. Digital ad spending is growing
faster than total media ad spending and will drive overall ad
spending growth. As more people become internet and mobile
internet users, marketers across the globe will continue to
increase their budgets for online and mobile advertising.
North America will lead in digital ad spending worldwide
through 2016, though its share will decline. Asia-Pacific,
Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa will
increase expenditures in digital ad spending and become bigger
players in the global digital ad market.
In 2013, Asia-Pacific will surpass Western Europe to
become the region with the second-highest digital ad
spending. China’s massive surge in spending, and to a lesser
extent India’s and Indonesia’s, will help push the region into
the No. 2 position globally.
Mobile ad spending will experience rapid growth in all
regions in the forecast, though the amount spent in each
will vary. Asia-Pacific, North America and Western Europe will
commit the most ad dollars toward mobile through 2016, while
expenditures will grow but remain much lower in Latin America,
Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa.
North America surpassed Asia-Pacific as the region
with the highest mobile ad investments last year. By
2015, Asia-Pacific will fall to No. 3 in spending while Western
Europe jumps to second place.
Related eMarketer Reports
US Ad Spending Forecast: Fall 2012 Update
UK Digital Advertising: Spending and Trends
Digital Ad Spending in Mexico: Advertising Giants
Finally Join the Pioneers
Digital Ad Spending by Industry: Forecasts and Key Trends
China Digital Media: Usage and Marketing Trends
Editorial and
Production Contributors
Nicole Perrin Associate Editorial Director
Cliff Annicelli Senior Copy Editor
Emily Adler Copy Editor
Dana Hill Director of Production
Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist
Stephanie Gehrsitz Production Artist
Allie Smith Director of Charts

The world’s go-to source for information on
digital marketing, media and commerce.
In the fast-paced digital world, it is neither prudent nor professional to
make business decisions based solely on a single source. eMarketer helps
companies minimize risk and maximize opportunity by providing…
COLLECTIVE WISDOM
COVERAGE
See all aspects of what is happening today in digital marketing, media
and commerce.
COLLECTION
Information is gathered from thousands of research sources around the globe
and hundreds of interviews with industry professionals a month.
CURATION
eMarketer sifts through the clutter, vets data for accuracy and distills information
to its essential intelligence – to save you time.
COMPARISON
Side-by-side source comparison charts display all relevant information on a
topic in one place.
CONTEXT
Focused, clear and concise, eMarketer reports provide a quick, complete picture
of fast-changing digital trends to make sense of complex issues.
CONVENIENCE
The information you need is accessible 24/7 from your PC, laptop, tablet or
smartphone—and downloadable in PDF, Excel, JPEG or PowerPoint formats.
CONFIDENCE
For 15 years, eMarketer has been recognized as the standard for media coverage
of the digital world—cited more than 4,000 times in the New York Times and
Wall Street Journal alone—and relied on by major brands and advertising
agencies around the globe.
COMPETITIVENESS
No one in business wants to be surprised, so see the trends coming and make
certain your organization always has the latest, most accurate and comprehensive
digital information available—with an eMarketer Corporate Subscription.
To schedule a conversation or customized
demonstration, go to eMarketer.com or call 212-763-6010

eMarketer Worldwide Ad Spending Forecast - 2013 - 2016

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

Último

Último (20)

Destacado

Destacado (20)

eMarketer Worldwide Ad Spending Forecast - 2013 - 2016