This is a presentation for CCAFS East Africa by Philip Kimeli at the Symposium on Climate Change Adaptation in Africa 2016 "Fostering African Resilience and Capacity to Adapt" in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 21st-23rd February 2016

1. Strengthening Farmer Adaptive
Capacity through Farms of the Future
Approach in Nyando, western Kenya
Philip Kimeli
CCAFS East Africa
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2. Background
 East Africa climate is rapidly changing
 Precipitation projection shows an increase in rainfall amounts
and variability (leading to floods, droughts, landslides)
 Average annual temperature will rise by between 1°C and
5°C, typically 1°C by 2020s and 4°C by 2100.
 Impacts of these changes - increased crop failures, pest and
disease outbreaks, water scarcity, livestock losses etc
 Farmers are already adapting to changing climate - marginal
changes and not transformational
In order to strengthen adaptive capacity
and encourage transformative changes,
farmers need to understand what their
future climate is likely to be. 2

3. Climate Analogues
 Climate Analogues - sites that experience conditions with
statistical similarity, in terms of current or future climate
 Key variables - rainfall and temperature (30 years data).
Other variables - soils, crops and socioeconomic
 The analogue locates a site whose climate today is similar to
the given future of a place of interest (i.e. where can we find
today the future climate of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia?)
 By 2100, there will be 30% novel climates under climate
change, implying there are 70% of already existing
climates sites!
 Practical application of analogues is through the Farms of
the Future (FotF) approach
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4. Farms of the Future Approach (FotF)
 The climate-analogue tool is used to connect farmers to their
possible future climates through farmer-to-farmer learning
exchanges…FotF
 Objectives of the FotF approach:
 Build on farmer-to-farmer exchanges to analogue sites to
improve adaptive capacity and support knowledge
exchange, including technology transfer.
 Improve understanding of local practices and available
tools and resources to enable transformative change
Piloted in Lushoto (Tanzania) and Nyando (Kenya).
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5. Nyando is one of the
CCAFS research sites
Research collaboration
amongst researchers,
local partners and
farmers
Evaluate and maximize
synergies across a
portfolio of climate-
smart agricultural
interventions
Case Study: Nyando, Western Kenya
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6.  Nyando is characterized by humid to sub-humid climate
 Subsistence farming - mixed rain fed crop-livestock farming
systems
 Low and erratic rainfall (900-1200mm annually)
 Small farm sizes (averaging <1 ha)
 High poverty rates
 High rate of HIV / AIDS
 Food insecurity (hungry 4mnths/yr)
Biophysical & Social Characteristics
of Nyando
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7. FotF Process
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Climate modelling
Planning workshop with
AIS and farmers
Learning journey Farmers and
AIS stakeholders
Participatory evaluation of learning
journey & feedback sessions
 Identify possible climate analogue
sites/ learning opportunities
 Share the lessons by
showing their films to
community
 Facilitate farmer / stakeholder
learning
 Documentation (video &
photography)
 Learning journey &
documentation of the
lessons learned

8. Identifying Nyando climate spatial
analogues sites
 Using rainfall and temperatures
variables & socio-economic factors
 Different seasons (MAM, OND and all
year), several analogues maps were
generated (9 maps)
 Engagement with AIS to identify the
best analogue map that is
representative of Nyando future
climate
 The analogue sites identified were
mainly semi-arid areas of western
Kenya
 This formed the farmer learning
journey
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9. The Learning Journey
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 8 days
 16 farmers (7 men and 9 women)
 7 Agricultural Innovations Stakeholders

10. Climate Resilient Innovations
farmers learned
 Soil and water management
Terraces, water harvesting structures, Zai pits
 Agricultural and farm mechanization (tools and equipment)
Maize sheller, boom sprayer machine mounted with planter
carrying seed and fertilizer (minimum tillage)
 Agro processing and value additions
Solar drier, Groundnut roaster, peanut butter
machine
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11. Climate Resilient Innovations
farmers learned
Livestock interventions
 Resilient breed (small ruminants) & feed management
 Crop diversification and management
 Resilient crop varieties (groundnuts, sorghum)
 Better agronomic practices
 Agro-forestry
Integration of fruit trees
 Institutional innovations
 Community banks & SACCOs
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12. Farmer Reflections and Lessons
Learned…1
 Farmers explored future scenarios - encouraging forward-
thinking as they prepare for their future climate.
 Motivation to act, articulate demand for technical and financial
support – SACCO, community bank, engagement of local govt
and NGOs
 Access to finance for risk
management
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13. Farmer Reflections and Lessons
Learned…2
 Social and cultural practices hinder adaptation - Access
to & control over resources is critical for equitable adaptation
 Adaptive capacity requires innovation - The ability and
willingness to innovate is included as a key part of the
adaptive capacity framework
 Collective action & changes
in decision-making to build
resilience - The increased
uncertainties created by a
changing climate requires
coordinated action 13

14. Challenges
 Climate modeling and projections have inherent
uncertainties
 Women had to seek consent from husbands to participate in
learning journey and also to implement the innovations
learned.
 Implementing the innovations
is a challenge due to lack of
technical expertise
 Innovation require initial
high investment capital
and demands for intensive
training i.e. bee keeping
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15. Conclusions
 Farms of the Future Approach can enable farmers to learn
and begin to read the world differently
 It helps farmers think critically about their future and
encourage them to start acting
 The learning journey enabled farmers and AIS to better
envision how their site-specific agricultural future might look
 It facilitated exchange of knowledge through which strategies
and farming information can be shared
 Strengthening adaptive capacity will also require institutional
support, extensive capacity building, structural and policy
changes
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16. 8 March 2016
Thank you
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To learn more about the tool and methodology, you can visit our
homepage:
http://www.ccafs-analogues.org/tool/
http://www.ccafs-climate.org/data/